Weekly structural research · LSE · Energy

DCC Stage Analysis

DCC plc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close GBP 6,425.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 68−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 68/100directional strength

Maturity 81/100lifecycle context

Confidence 91/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +20.8%GBP 5,317.06 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	6,425.00	5,960.10	14.49	3927344	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-10-02	6,435.00	5,902.97	16.06	3303291	Upward Expansion	76	70
2026-09-25	6,435.00	5,846.89	13.93	3167977	Upward Expansion	80	70
2026-09-18	6,425.00	5,805.19	14.52	2195304	Upward Expansion	84	72
2026-09-11	6,330.00	5,763.64	13.28	4087924	Upward Expansion	67	87
2026-09-04	6,335.00	5,728.60	11.83	1221745	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-08-28	6,370.00	5,680.33	12.80	234762	Upward Expansion	71	89
2026-08-21	6,370.00	5,622.49	13.20	172358	Upward Expansion	73	89
2026-08-14	6,360.00	5,563.05	14.02	408769	Upward Expansion	72	87
2026-08-07	6,375.00	5,500.28	13.02	200430	Upward Expansion	74	87
2026-07-31	6,330.00	5,435.95	12.83	1073996	Upward Expansion	73	87
2026-07-24	6,285.00	5,376.38	13.70	846562	Upward Expansion	68	61
2026-07-17	6,285.00	5,323.84	15.42	1434609	Upward Expansion	70	63
2026-07-10	6,275.00	5,280.17	16.63	201443	Upward Expansion	72	64
2026-07-03	6,090.00	5,240.29	11.56	878403	Upward Expansion	66	61
2026-06-26	6,230.00	5,204.75	16.08	317988	Upward Expansion	73	75
2026-06-19	6,200.00	5,163.51	17.37	911079	Upward Expansion	74	72
2026-06-12	6,135.00	5,118.54	15.25	1203957	Upward Expansion	73	75
2026-06-05	6,015.00	5,081.31	14.37	830567	Upward Expansion	69	83
2026-05-29	6,005.00	5,038.08	13.97	1370152	Upward Expansion	70	85
2026-05-22	6,153.51	5,004.85	16.36	1564781	Upward Expansion	85	92
2026-05-15	5,883.57	4,968.67	14.52	1104353	Upward Expansion	81	89
2026-05-08	5,748.60	4,928.29	11.58	1512989	Upward Expansion	79	84
2026-05-01	5,803.59	4,897.67	11.13	2428648	Upward Expansion	83	78
2026-04-24	5,203.74	4,868.49	-0.55	881106	Balance	61	55
2026-04-17	5,288.72	4,852.84	-1.91	1025023	Balance	64	43
2026-04-10	5,138.75	4,834.95	-4.48	1187045	Downward Expansion	5	7
2026-04-03	4,782.84	4,821.14	-10.08	1049634	Downward Expansion	-42	33
2026-03-27	4,580.89	4,820.18	-10.30	1201362	Balance	-48	37
2026-03-20	4,508.91	4,824.22	-11.75	2076004	Balance	-22	19
2026-03-13	4,710.86	4,835.20	-11.36	2544879	Upward Expansion	34	19
2026-03-06	4,752.85	4,835.58	-11.25	3430377	Upward Expansion	46	45
2026-02-27	5,183.74	4,834.62	-9.25	9952240	Upward Expansion	65	58
2026-02-20	5,178.74	4,817.04	-7.89	1958963	Balance	65	47
2026-02-13	5,278.72	4,803.75	-4.42	2304919	Balance	30	26
2026-02-06	4,886.81	4,787.27	-11.25	2036886	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2026-01-30	4,634.88	4,782.11	-15.04	1893565	Downward Expansion	-58	57
2026-01-23	4,586.89	4,788.35	-15.84	1809056	Rotation Down	-60	66
2026-01-16	4,476.91	4,793.66	-19.13	2429493	Rotation Down	-37	52
2026-01-09	4,444.92	4,798.44	-19.41	3425473	Balance	-30	32
2026-01-02	4,542.90	4,806.42	-16.72	1016556	Balance	-23	18
2025-12-26	4,708.86	4,809.66	-13.52	3205699	Upward Expansion	21	13
2025-12-19	4,974.79	4,807.17	-9.37	25857682	Upward Expansion	53	40
2025-12-12	5,078.77	4,792.22	-5.54	1714148	Upward Expansion	59	43
2025-12-05	5,023.78	4,783.09	-7.15	877865	Upward Expansion	57	39
2025-11-28	4,992.79	4,781.98	-8.69	1195498	Upward Expansion	54	26
2025-11-21	4,850.82	4,779.85	-10.15	3468639	Upward Expansion	45	24
2025-11-14	5,018.08	4,777.78	-9.10	2578642	Upward Expansion	59	49
2025-11-07	4,718.19	4,776.40	-14.83	1464903	Upward Expansion	39	24
2025-10-31	5,008.08	4,777.75	-10.26	949901	Upward Expansion	60	51
2025-10-24	5,068.06	4,771.84	-8.78	1721249	Balance	67	51
2025-10-17	4,672.21	4,776.78	-13.54	950776	Balance	1	5
2025-10-10	4,830.15	4,794.09	-11.69	1118754	Balance	18	21
2025-10-03	4,928.11	4,807.14	-10.79	1210264	Balance	-0	6
2025-09-26	4,734.18	4,819.08	-12.71	1128547	Balance	-31	14
2025-09-19	4,752.18	4,839.82	-12.07	1638448	Balance	-21	12
2025-09-12	4,724.19	4,860.13	-13.53	3494346	Balance	-23	10
2025-09-05	4,754.18	4,884.20	-12.62	1920385	Balance	-22	11
2025-08-29	4,702.20	4,902.44	-13.69	1635387	Downward Expansion	-38	19
2025-08-22	4,838.15	4,932.24	-12.83	1089307	Downward Expansion	-18	14
2025-08-15	4,722.19	4,952.01	-13.54	1563881	Downward Expansion	-46	27
2025-08-08	4,724.19	4,975.48	-13.42	786633	Downward Expansion	-46	25
2025-08-01	4,656.21	4,987.23	-14.72	1137817	Downward Expansion	-45	26
2025-07-25	4,780.17	5,007.07	-13.27	956364	Downward Expansion	-33	19
2025-07-18	4,784.17	5,019.11	-12.29	909187	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2025-07-11	4,732.19	5,031.53	-13.10	1919644	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2025-07-04	4,822.15	5,055.50	-10.70	1279299	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2025-06-27	4,746.18	5,079.47	-12.27	1425075	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2025-06-20	4,620.23	5,111.96	-14.74	1423262	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2025-06-13	4,684.20	5,145.00	-14.70	1272538	Downward Expansion	-62	66
2025-06-06	4,640.22	5,168.71	-15.78	1412403	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2025-05-30	4,634.22	5,175.51	-15.67	2057994	Downward Expansion	-68	54
2025-05-23	4,526.26	5,185.77	-17.52	1320429	Downward Expansion	-77	51
2025-05-16	4,804.75	5,203.26	-12.55	2803812	Downward Expansion	-65	44
2025-05-09	4,990.62	5,217.80	-8.21	2136329	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2025-05-02	4,928.66	5,219.64	-10.09	1012547	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2025-04-25	4,788.76	5,228.72	-11.01	1514979	Downward Expansion	-72	77
2025-04-18	4,976.63	5,242.95	-6.25	965905	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2025-04-11	4,758.78	5,248.60	-7.10	2419798	Balance	-82	78
2025-04-04	4,830.73	5,264.17	-7.03	1172709	Balance	-55	60
2025-03-28	5,216.47	5,274.01	-6.86	902853	Balance	-16	26
2025-03-21	5,191.48	5,278.48	-7.51	1636269	Balance	-17	18
2025-03-14	5,221.46	5,281.79	-7.14	1368435	Balance	14	12
2025-03-07	5,286.42	5,283.44	-6.87	1623431	Balance	26	11
2025-02-28	5,356.37	5,278.75	-7.38	2336211	Balance	44	19
2025-02-21	5,361.37	5,271.90	-6.03	759511	Balance	50	40
2025-02-14	5,446.31	5,270.72	-5.70	1482428	Balance	52	46
2025-02-07	5,301.41	5,269.03	-8.20	1427636	Balance	47	30
2025-01-31	5,596.21	5,280.50	-3.22	931287	Balance	60	39
2025-01-24	5,431.32	5,283.81	-4.48	1304388	Balance	10	5
2025-01-17	5,426.32	5,287.29	-4.92	1486894	Balance	4	10
2025-01-10	5,076.56	5,292.76	-8.57	2381150	Balance	-37	30
2025-01-03	5,251.44	5,308.39	-5.48	629365	Balance	-3	12
2024-12-27	5,141.52	5,321.03	-6.89	276241	Balance	-17	11
2024-12-20	5,156.51	5,339.16	-6.17	2004981	Rotation Up	5	24
2024-12-13	5,451.31	5,357.46	-3.65	1110994	Rotation Up	22	48
2024-12-06	5,541.25	5,373.05	-2.42	1208294	Rotation Up	22	36
2024-11-29	5,721.12	5,383.14	0.83	2126165	Downward Expansion	33	33
2024-11-22	5,611.20	5,375.41	-0.91	2915054	Downward Expansion	5	7
2024-11-15	5,395.71	5,370.69	-2.46	2702208	Downward Expansion	-38	27
2024-11-08	4,844.15	5,372.48	-12.63	1290232	Downward Expansion	-76	68
2024-11-01	4,942.07	5,396.48	-12.06	890339	Downward Expansion	-71	57
2024-10-25	5,050.98	5,413.72	-10.96	684587	Downward Expansion	-64	41
2024-10-18	5,240.83	5,437.16	-8.81	712107	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2024-10-11	5,045.99	5,451.74	-11.01	1316419	Downward Expansion	-68	46
2024-10-04	5,200.86	5,474.34	-8.57	1121843	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2024-09-27	5,215.85	5,489.65	-8.68	759860	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2024-09-20	5,145.91	5,503.67	-8.86	1372743	Downward Expansion	-62	42
2024-09-13	5,225.84	5,524.67	-7.86	527937	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2024-09-06	5,125.92	5,541.88	-8.53	494799	Downward Expansion	-67	43
2024-08-30	5,350.75	5,563.08	-6.64	595153	Downward Expansion	-57	46
2024-08-23	5,290.79	5,576.73	-6.99	484202	Downward Expansion	-62	69
2024-08-16	5,270.81	5,592.17	-6.99	593380	Downward Expansion	-62	72
2024-08-09	5,145.91	5,603.35	-7.47	734522	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2024-08-02	5,150.90	5,620.03	-7.35	566433	Downward Expansion	-73	67
2024-07-26	5,325.77	5,638.27	-5.37	1113677	Balance	-63	46
2024-07-19	5,395.71	5,653.15	-2.45	855899	Balance	-61	34
2024-07-12	5,645.51	5,662.49	1.04	964706	Balance	-33	16
2024-07-05	5,695.47	5,663.45	2.82	711873	Balance	-30	17
2024-06-28	5,535.60	5,657.41	0.75	724381	Balance	-42	25
2024-06-21	5,590.55	5,655.57	1.12	1128829	Balance	-35	19
2024-06-14	5,545.59	5,646.70	1.70	760664	Balance	-10	6
2024-06-07	5,630.52	5,639.91	2.26	1089441	Balance	32	23
2024-05-31	5,685.48	5,605.49	3.06	1356756	Deceleration	48	34
2024-05-24	5,705.46	5,570.89	3.08	918880	Deceleration	45	31
2024-05-17	5,918.92	5,528.14	5.85	1120058	Deceleration	51	30
2024-05-10	5,843.99	5,478.21	4.53	1205109	Deceleration	40	17
2024-05-03	5,489.36	5,436.87	1.07	1045234	Deceleration	2	17
2024-04-26	5,469.38	5,404.72	1.74	937872	Deceleration	-2	19
2024-04-19	5,449.40	5,375.86	4.64	884600	Deceleration	-1	13
2024-04-12	5,564.28	5,348.14	5.76	1602080	Deceleration	16	13
2024-04-05	5,459.39	5,317.18	5.10	1090714	Deceleration	12	12
2024-03-29	5,754.08	5,281.17	10.47	710559	Deceleration	48	33
2024-03-22	5,678.16	5,233.27	9.65	1223352	Deceleration	41	29
2024-03-15	5,724.11	5,183.67	13.91	1255908	Deceleration	47	36
2024-03-08	5,660.18	5,134.84	14.16	1513493	Upward Expansion	47	38
2024-03-01	5,636.21	5,094.36	13.90	1132949	Upward Expansion	60	48
2024-02-23	5,776.06	5,053.55	16.86	977368	Upward Expansion	65	57
2024-02-16	5,742.10	5,012.14	16.68	1000662	Upward Expansion	62	59
2024-02-09	5,762.08	4,974.50	19.85	1220556	Upward Expansion	66	57
2024-02-02	5,760.08	4,928.06	19.79	1495638	Upward Expansion	68	59
2024-01-26	5,754.08	4,876.00	19.93	1143986	Upward Expansion	70	61
2024-01-19	5,606.24	4,830.63	20.15	1021058	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-01-12	5,646.20	4,788.65	19.05	1262312	Upward Expansion	67	65
2024-01-05	5,698.14	4,753.60	19.74	699981	Upward Expansion	69	70
2023-12-29	5,772.07	4,721.25	21.32	292398	Upward Expansion	78	88
2023-12-22	5,676.16	4,687.07	20.61	900655	Upward Expansion	77	91
2023-12-15	5,674.17	4,654.68	23.25	1481788	Upward Expansion	83	94
2023-12-08	5,514.33	4,631.18	20.87	943654	Upward Expansion	82	93
2023-12-01	5,480.37	4,604.45	21.13	2210727	Upward Expansion	86	94
2023-11-24	5,324.53	4,583.71	18.89	1140497	Rotation Up	85	88
2023-11-17	5,341.88	4,570.79	19.48	2093897	Rotation Up	59	66
2023-11-10	4,597.73	4,553.00	5.26	1318080	Balance	-6	5
2023-11-03	4,647.67	4,563.51	5.62	862370	Balance	-9	6
2023-10-27	4,422.93	4,564.70	2.11	659005	Balance	-30	15
2023-10-20	4,420.93	4,574.32	0.28	903669	Rotation Up	-15	12

Price vs TrendAbove+7.8%

Trend directionRising+9.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+20.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+14.5%

Relative strength directionWeakening-2.1%

Price momentumPositive+25.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.85×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

68 / ±100

+1.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

68 /100

-18.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

DCC Directional State ↗ DCC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance7

Rotation Up57

Upward Expansion85

Deceleration58

Rotation Down30

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 28%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 33%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 27%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-10-09	Established	+10.7%
Balance	2026-04-17	2026-04-24	New	-1.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-04-10	New	+7.4%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-03-27	New	+1.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-03-13	New	-9.1%
Balance	2026-02-13	2026-02-20	New	-1.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-02-06	New	+5.4%
Rotation Down	2026-01-16	2026-01-23	New	+2.5%
Balance	2026-01-02	2026-01-09	New	-2.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-31	2025-12-26	Developing	-6.0%
Balance	2025-09-05	2025-10-24	Developing	+6.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-08-29	Established	-5.5%
Balance	2024-12-27	2025-04-11	Established	-7.4%
Rotation Up	2024-12-06	2024-12-20	New	-6.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing6

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution67

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 80/100
Current Relative Strength: 14.49
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +25.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +25.5%
Energy regime cohort: 91th percentile23 in cohort

Test DCC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.81×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.85×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore DCC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 6,423.33rising

Slow Activity GBP 6,232.26rising

Trend Reference GBP 5,960.10+7.8% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 5,317.06+20.8% close margin

Structural low GBP 5,038.78shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +0.7%

Annualized volatility +18.2%

From structural high -0.5%

From structural low +53.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	-0.3%-11.6% to +5.3%	+43.8%	+43.8%	-0.9%	+68.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+0.9%-8.2% to +15.8%	+57.1%	+57.1%	-4.6%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-3.3%-16.2% to +15.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-4.6%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-7.3%-25.5% to +10.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-12.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

DCC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map