Weekly structural research · GER · Consumer Cyclical

GFG Stage Analysis

Global Fashion Group S.A.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 0.434Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Momentum cooling

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -52−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 27/100directional strength

Maturity 32/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +45.1%EUR 0.2991 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	0.434	0.456	9.68	523757	Deceleration	-52	27
2026-09-18	0.433	0.4499	10.42	776487	Deceleration	-16	11
2026-09-11	0.45	0.4446	14.05	542919	Deceleration	13	9
2026-09-04	0.454	0.4386	13.46	694064	Deceleration	13	12
2026-08-28	0.442	0.4326	8.71	461520	Deceleration	13	10
2026-08-21	0.451	0.4281	13.02	137734	Deceleration	6	13
2026-08-14	0.466	0.423	15.81	96245	Deceleration	7	19
2026-08-07	0.42	0.4175	5.15	56688	Deceleration	-11	38
2026-07-31	0.43	0.4131	10.75	65012	Deceleration	-2	19
2026-07-24	0.428	0.4078	12.74	24000	Deceleration	0	14
2026-07-17	0.45	0.403	20.25	17672	Deceleration	24	16
2026-07-10	0.474	0.3964	26.36	43787	Deceleration	36	22
2026-07-03	0.455	0.3893	18.82	16147	Deceleration	38	23
2026-06-26	0.492	0.3836	34.91	106360	Deceleration	48	33
2026-06-19	0.467	0.3766	27.67	27835	Upward Expansion	43	32
2026-06-12	0.471	0.3697	31.50	27332	Upward Expansion	47	37
2026-06-05	0.486	0.3636	35.89	28273	Upward Expansion	57	42
2026-05-29	0.495	0.3572	37.62	493179	Upward Expansion	60	44
2026-05-22	0.492	0.3509	39.42	400387	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-05-15	0.489	0.3444	45.39	213229	Upward Expansion	62	52
2026-05-08	0.495	0.3382	46.56	439188	Upward Expansion	66	56
2026-05-01	0.47	0.3323	41.23	918214	Upward Expansion	63	54
2026-04-24	0.516	0.3265	57.84	1232338	Upward Expansion	78	60
2026-04-17	0.487	0.3198	47.24	763715	Upward Expansion	78	63
2026-04-10	0.435	0.3143	38.00	1069368	Upward Expansion	68	76
2026-04-03	0.41	0.3109	34.91	850913	Upward Expansion	64	80
2026-03-27	0.424	0.3084	45.98	735390	Upward Expansion	66	81
2026-03-20	0.43	0.3061	48.76	625392	Rotation Up	73	79
2026-03-13	0.464	0.3037	54.44	2755659	Rotation Up	52	63
2026-03-06	0.37	0.3008	23.62	5154047	Balance	8	9
2026-02-27	0.252	0.3002	-21.24	620601	Balance	-57	43
2026-02-20	0.273	0.3039	-14.86	318903	Balance	-35	19
2026-02-13	0.27	0.3063	-14.80	177683	Balance	-35	15
2026-02-06	0.275	0.3075	-12.80	250554	Balance	-19	13
2026-01-30	0.305	0.309	-2.86	227001	Balance	-6	12
2026-01-23	0.299	0.3098	-5.84	89735	Downward Expansion	-24	14
2026-01-16	0.30	0.3099	-6.83	80891	Downward Expansion	-29	16
2026-01-09	0.29	0.3104	-9.61	604472	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2026-01-02	0.27	0.3119	-13.32	397056	Downward Expansion	-50	32
2025-12-26	0.285	0.3138	-7.90	326416	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2025-12-19	0.25	0.3139	-18.96	264109	Downward Expansion	-63	45
2025-12-12	0.262	0.3156	-14.81	175444	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2025-12-05	0.284	0.3162	-7.01	87335	Downward Expansion	-53	44
2025-11-28	0.283	0.3154	-6.51	208656	Downward Expansion	-55	47
2025-11-21	0.259	0.3148	-11.71	140531	Deceleration	-41	38
2025-11-14	0.288	0.3159	-5.17	114743	Deceleration	-29	25
2025-11-07	0.293	0.3149	-2.47	216026	Deceleration	-28	21
2025-10-31	0.308	0.3131	0.68	99121	Deceleration	-14	15
2025-10-24	0.295	0.3117	-4.93	47465	Deceleration	-23	30
2025-10-17	0.305	0.3118	-0.32	83807	Deceleration	-17	21
2025-10-10	0.316	0.3123	1.35	93757	Deceleration	5	16
2025-10-03	0.298	0.3119	-4.85	211224	Deceleration	-3	15
2025-09-26	0.313	0.3127	2.85	165411	Deceleration	14	16
2025-09-19	0.324	0.3113	7.30	46346	Deceleration	29	17
2025-09-12	0.331	0.3095	9.67	52777	Upward Expansion	37	20
2025-09-05	0.337	0.3081	12.56	15980	Upward Expansion	53	34
2025-08-29	0.355	0.3063	17.64	136291	Upward Expansion	56	46
2025-08-22	0.358	0.3019	16.92	260062	Upward Expansion	58	59
2025-08-15	0.376	0.2976	22.97	569365	Upward Expansion	67	64
2025-08-08	0.352	0.2923	16.43	94519	Upward Expansion	59	48
2025-08-01	0.364	0.2881	24.84	691310	Upward Expansion	64	45
2025-07-25	0.343	0.284	14.56	208443	Upward Expansion	58	33
2025-07-18	0.307	0.2799	2.68	37076	Upward Expansion	37	21
2025-07-11	0.319	0.277	7.00	38229	Upward Expansion	50	28
2025-07-04	0.331	0.2736	13.70	148553	Upward Expansion	57	41
2025-06-27	0.302	0.2701	3.23	256611	Upward Expansion	52	44
2025-06-20	0.314	0.268	10.92	129245	Upward Expansion	54	48
2025-06-13	0.334	0.2653	17.66	247297	Balance	59	51
2025-06-06	0.329	0.2628	12.71	576864	Balance	56	41
2025-05-30	0.288	0.2605	0.20	192837	Balance	34	19
2025-05-23	0.299	0.2602	5.93	490153	Balance	35	16
2025-05-16	0.281	0.2595	-0.89	428793	Balance	28	12
2025-05-09	0.261	0.2592	-6.80	74149	Balance	12	7
2025-05-02	0.265	0.2585	-3.74	247932	Upward Expansion	23	13
2025-04-25	0.292	0.2565	10.04	481800	Upward Expansion	30	18
2025-04-18	0.256	0.2538	1.08	837554	Upward Expansion	24	15
2025-04-11	0.24	0.2526	-1.66	966623	Upward Expansion	25	12
2025-04-04	0.265	0.2518	6.96	286325	Upward Expansion	50	28
2025-03-28	0.3005	0.2496	11.58	1062400	Upward Expansion	57	44
2025-03-21	0.318	0.2471	16.04	545271	Upward Expansion	65	53
2025-03-14	0.3035	0.2451	10.60	1358039	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-03-07	0.323	0.2431	17.66	1237436	Upward Expansion	71	66
2025-02-28	0.27	0.239	0.49	817012	Upward Expansion	53	54
2025-02-21	0.2705	0.2366	0.29	433125	Upward Expansion	52	53
2025-02-14	0.2885	0.2345	4.59	949581	Balance	61	48
2025-02-07	0.2845	0.232	5.80	1899025	Balance	50	25
2025-01-31	0.222	0.229	-17.76	131029	Balance	-12	10
2025-01-24	0.2305	0.2281	-13.57	35006	Balance	1	3
2025-01-17	0.217	0.2265	-17.30	116805	Balance	-16	11
2025-01-10	0.225	0.2257	-11.40	349075	Balance	7	8
2025-01-03	0.2395	0.2249	-4.19	596267	Balance	10	11
2024-12-27	0.222	0.2242	-11.45	71242	Balance	-13	16
2024-12-20	0.22	0.2232	-11.82	415706	Balance	6	14
2024-12-13	0.2155	0.2232	-15.91	1207186	Balance	12	16
2024-12-06	0.228	0.223	-11.21	1145211	Upward Expansion	24	17
2024-11-29	0.238	0.2226	-4.18	146347	Upward Expansion	35	17
2024-11-22	0.233	0.2217	-5.08	112225	Upward Expansion	51	30
2024-11-15	0.2575	0.2223	5.02	732656	Upward Expansion	57	55
2024-11-08	0.262	0.222	6.56	351716	Upward Expansion	58	64
2024-11-01	0.28	0.221	13.39	444119	Upward Expansion	64	67
2024-10-25	0.276	0.2191	10.50	169472	Upward Expansion	63	59
2024-10-18	0.2735	0.2175	8.03	1005278	Balance	63	45
2024-10-11	0.2385	0.2157	-4.79	1478685	Balance	11	6
2024-10-04	0.206	0.2155	-17.51	156299	Balance	-18	11
2024-09-27	0.21	0.2164	-18.60	120599	Balance	-14	11
2024-09-20	0.22	0.2223	-12.67	263149	Balance	-24	13
2024-09-13	0.215	0.2265	-15.85	184856	Balance	-13	12
2024-09-06	0.2015	0.2294	-20.69	170001	Balance	-18	19
2024-08-30	0.2245	0.2323	-16.04	193562	Balance	-8	20
2024-08-23	0.2585	0.2319	-3.64	403977	Balance	6	16
2024-08-16	0.244	0.232	-9.20	1186178	Balance	-3	7
2024-08-09	0.198	0.2298	-24.95	105922	Downward Expansion	-35	16
2024-08-02	0.1978	0.2293	-26.28	304806	Downward Expansion	-36	17
2024-07-26	0.21	0.229	-26.80	324908	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2024-07-19	0.2125	0.2282	-26.74	141581	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2024-07-12	0.1942	0.2276	-37.13	198709	Downward Expansion	-53	43
2024-07-05	0.1948	0.2282	-37.97	281734	Downward Expansion	-55	45
2024-06-28	0.1822	0.2296	-42.94	206381	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2024-06-21	0.1948	0.2316	-40.56	114474	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2024-06-14	0.1986	0.2332	-40.54	180431	Balance	-57	40
2024-06-07	0.219	0.2346	-38.09	578932	Balance	-52	39
2024-05-31	0.1922	0.2349	-46.91	1429096	Balance	-30	35
2024-05-24	0.22	0.2361	-41.14	660306	Balance	-12	24
2024-05-17	0.21	0.2369	-45.00	244214	Balance	-15	24
2024-05-10	0.2155	0.2381	-45.01	401488	Balance	-14	11
2024-05-03	0.2115	0.2406	-45.26	644557	Balance	-14	9
2024-04-26	0.251	0.2439	-37.53	371750	Balance	-5	5
2024-04-19	0.247	0.2467	-39.06	618187	Balance	-18	13
2024-04-12	0.2335	0.2501	-45.04	266108	Balance	-31	23
2024-04-05	0.2215	0.2544	-50.34	266383	Balance	-14	20
2024-03-29	0.2298	0.2599	-50.98	306195	Balance	-11	19
2024-03-22	0.2204	0.2655	-53.97	345694	Balance	-8	8
2024-03-15	0.2304	0.2727	-52.81	756712	Rotation Up	6	14
2024-03-08	0.2346	0.2778	-53.28	1429858	Rotation Up	14	33
2024-03-01	0.3858	0.2844	-25.53	1952502	Rotation Up	46	58
2024-02-23	0.347	0.2881	-33.78	1026006	Downward Expansion	41	42
2024-02-16	0.3004	0.2938	-43.41	1489186	Downward Expansion	9	24
2024-02-09	0.29	0.3045	-46.56	2404254	Downward Expansion	-10	15
2024-02-02	0.212	0.3149	-62.27	3009524	Downward Expansion	-44	33
2024-01-26	0.26	0.3272	-55.63	3814636	Downward Expansion	-49	41
2024-01-19	0.18	0.3388	-69.56	659582	Downward Expansion	-72	83
2024-01-12	0.1811	0.3525	-70.74	1143617	Downward Expansion	-73	75
2024-01-05	0.1889	0.3669	-70.52	464728	Downward Expansion	-72	76
2023-12-29	0.188	0.3809	-72.04	1966361	Downward Expansion	-75	68
2023-12-22	0.1951	0.3921	-71.86	2062423	Downward Expansion	-76	66
2023-12-15	0.2104	0.4034	-70.67	859952	Downward Expansion	-73	64
2023-12-08	0.2386	0.4155	-67.71	610884	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2023-12-01	0.24	0.4299	-67.69	725526	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2023-11-24	0.243	0.4463	-67.45	1439877	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2023-11-17	0.24	0.4657	-68.49	1909981	Downward Expansion	-67	78
2023-11-10	0.23	0.4883	-69.29	770154	Downward Expansion	-72	81
2023-11-03	0.2276	0.5106	-70.44	1503088	Downward Expansion	-77	85
2023-10-27	0.244	0.5313	-68.58	660120	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2023-10-20	0.245	0.5554	-70.00	632045	Downward Expansion	-82	83
2023-10-13	0.29	0.5771	-66.70	658234	Downward Expansion	-78	83
2023-10-06	0.3128	0.5984	-65.51	885358	Downward Expansion	-76	80

Price vs TrendBelow-4.8%

Trend directionRising+13.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+45.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-19.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+9.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-25.2%

Price momentumPositive+2.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.70×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-52 / ±100

-65.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

27 /100

+17.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

GFG Directional State ↗ GFG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance44

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion8

Deceleration48

Rotation Down44

Downward Expansion70

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 29%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 15%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-06-26	2026-09-25	Established	-11.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-06-19	Established	+10.1%
Rotation Up	2026-03-13	2026-03-20	New	-7.3%
Balance	2026-01-30	2026-03-06	Developing	+21.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-28	2026-01-23	Developing	+5.7%
Deceleration	2025-09-19	2025-11-21	Developing	-20.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-09-12	Established	+5.4%
Balance	2025-05-09	2025-06-13	Developing	+28.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-05-02	Developing	-2.0%
Balance	2024-12-13	2025-02-14	Developing	+33.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-25	2024-12-06	Developing	-17.4%
Balance	2024-08-16	2024-10-18	Developing	+12.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-21	2024-08-09	Developing	+1.6%
Balance	2024-03-22	2024-06-14	Established	-9.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing14

Stage 2 · Advancing70

Stage 3 · Distribution64

Stage 4 · Declining30

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 28/100
Current Relative Strength: 9.68
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +2.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.6%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 62th percentile13 in cohort

Test GFG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.20×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.70×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore GFG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 0.4401falling

Slow Activity EUR 0.4554rising

Trend Reference EUR 0.456-4.8% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 0.2991+45.1% close margin

Structural low EUR 0.41shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +8.0%

Annualized volatility +35.9%

From structural high -26.4%

From structural low +88.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	-5.7%-13.0% to +5.4%	+16.7%	+16.7%	-6.2%	+83.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	2	-17.3%-22.8% to -11.8%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-20.2%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	+32.7%+32.7% to +32.7%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+38.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+33.6%+33.6% to +33.6%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+26.6%	+100.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

GFG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map