Weekly structural research · JPX · Industrials

3441 Stage Analysis

SANNO Co., Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close JPY 1,798.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Structural failure

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -72−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 90/100directional strength

Maturity 28/100lifecycle context

Confidence 84/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +47.9%JPY 1,215.59 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1,798.00	2,529.42	-18.49	267500	Rotation Down	-72	90
2026-10-02	1,719.00	2,513.72	-20.97	309700	Rotation Down	-58	84
2026-09-25	1,802.00	2,503.72	-14.51	148100	Rotation Down	-59	75
2026-09-18	1,800.00	2,490.82	-12.55	1451800	Rotation Down	-45	50
2026-09-11	2,758.00	2,475.19	36.60	237400	Deceleration	28	16
2026-09-04	2,741.00	2,423.69	35.22	26700	Deceleration	27	16
2026-08-28	2,764.00	2,372.55	34.86	29000	Deceleration	17	10
2026-08-21	2,699.00	2,319.35	33.75	37700	Deceleration	15	14
2026-08-14	2,739.00	2,267.62	31.76	35700	Deceleration	23	21
2026-08-07	2,612.00	2,213.95	32.99	37300	Deceleration	24	26
2026-07-31	2,518.00	2,164.45	32.04	54000	Deceleration	29	27
2026-07-24	2,641.18	2,117.42	39.28	31000	Upward Expansion	41	26
2026-07-17	2,579.85	2,066.48	38.59	87000	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-07-10	2,947.83	2,017.42	49.70	53600	Upward Expansion	65	80
2026-07-03	3,373.19	1,954.13	70.47	68100	Upward Expansion	73	84
2026-06-26	3,427.60	1,876.25	77.05	78000	Upward Expansion	83	87
2026-06-19	3,700.00	1,797.20	89.30	192800	Upward Expansion	94	76
2026-06-12	2,369.00	1,708.70	33.24	163200	Upward Expansion	62	49
2026-06-05	2,849.00	1,662.07	59.98	73600	Upward Expansion	79	64
2026-05-29	2,585.00	1,599.50	47.35	267300	Upward Expansion	69	61
2026-05-22	2,543.00	1,545.87	53.38	357200	Upward Expansion	68	63
2026-05-15	2,523.00	1,493.97	58.79	403700	Upward Expansion	69	65
2026-05-08	2,696.00	1,441.23	68.27	171500	Upward Expansion	86	71
2026-05-01	2,355.00	1,383.77	57.17	244900	Upward Expansion	75	67
2026-04-24	2,214.00	1,337.27	49.02	251200	Upward Expansion	69	66
2026-04-17	2,177.00	1,296.47	51.07	363500	Upward Expansion	65	74
2026-04-10	2,115.00	1,256.37	52.20	335800	Upward Expansion	67	87
2026-04-03	2,135.00	1,221.80	66.39	529700	Upward Expansion	75	87
2026-03-27	2,267.00	1,187.80	78.21	736000	Upward Expansion	93	91
2026-03-20	2,435.00	1,149.57	94.34	1899200	Upward Expansion	98	89
2026-03-13	1,327.00	1,103.30	6.96	372300	Upward Expansion	67	78
2026-03-06	1,419.00	1,092.87	11.02	354600	Upward Expansion	85	92
2026-02-27	1,415.00	1,078.87	5.07	181500	Upward Expansion	94	96
2026-02-20	1,331.00	1,065.03	2.72	150700	Upward Expansion	93	89
2026-02-13	1,213.00	1,053.60	-6.22	116400	Upward Expansion	77	66
2026-02-06	1,207.00	1,045.86	-1.86	82200	Upward Expansion	82	70
2026-01-30	1,168.00	1,038.40	-3.09	276700	Upward Expansion	77	67
2026-01-23	1,147.00	1,031.77	-5.49	85600	Upward Expansion	76	80
2026-01-16	1,129.00	1,026.37	-6.90	38200	Upward Expansion	72	79
2026-01-09	1,127.00	1,021.93	-3.33	68000	Upward Expansion	76	82
2026-01-02	1,107.00	1,017.29	-1.81	33400	Upward Expansion	72	79
2025-12-26	1,113.00	1,014.88	-1.82	95800	Upward Expansion	79	78
2025-12-19	1,108.00	1,009.18	0.49	217300	Upward Expansion	80	76
2025-12-12	1,049.00	1,002.50	-7.06	41600	Balance	60	56
2025-12-05	1,037.00	997.89	-7.23	28800	Balance	44	34
2025-11-28	1,056.00	992.96	-4.83	36100	Balance	50	31
2025-11-21	1,045.00	987.39	-2.41	113800	Balance	23	13
2025-11-14	970.00	982.10	-12.31	23400	Deceleration	-14	13
2025-11-07	972.00	978.85	-11.86	28900	Deceleration	-15	18
2025-10-31	976.00	973.05	-15.00	45400	Deceleration	-18	23
2025-10-24	986.00	967.06	-8.67	21500	Deceleration	-3	23
2025-10-17	941.00	963.66	-9.55	29600	Deceleration	-32	38
2025-10-10	972.00	961.93	-7.40	49400	Deceleration	8	27
2025-10-03	960.00	955.35	-3.68	96500	Deceleration	7	20
2025-09-26	990.00	948.62	0.46	68400	Upward Expansion	38	27
2025-09-19	974.00	940.07	-0.21	266800	Upward Expansion	53	49
2025-09-12	1,078.00	932.12	11.24	171900	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-09-05	1,115.00	920.74	20.01	89500	Upward Expansion	84	92
2025-08-29	1,120.00	907.99	21.80	59500	Upward Expansion	90	82
2025-08-22	1,047.00	895.14	14.61	77600	Upward Expansion	78	57
2025-08-15	1,014.00	884.73	9.38	40700	Upward Expansion	69	51
2025-08-08	999.00	875.28	12.01	45500	Upward Expansion	64	48
2025-08-01	1,000.00	866.89	15.15	26400	Upward Expansion	66	49
2025-07-25	987.87	858.76	12.14	30000	Upward Expansion	53	44
2025-07-18	981.02	850.61	15.99	23800	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-07-11	982.98	842.13	17.22	31500	Upward Expansion	62	50
2025-07-04	969.28	832.19	15.22	60000	Upward Expansion	62	53
2025-06-27	984.93	822.73	16.38	40100	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-06-20	995.69	812.82	23.24	80600	Upward Expansion	69	71
2025-06-13	987.87	802.75	24.45	125200	Upward Expansion	70	64
2025-06-06	1,034.82	793.13	31.00	133400	Upward Expansion	88	77
2025-05-30	941.90	782.27	18.97	48800	Upward Expansion	75	64
2025-05-23	907.67	773.90	17.34	22000	Upward Expansion	68	62
2025-05-16	910.60	766.63	16.09	127100	Upward Expansion	70	64
2025-05-09	889.08	759.45	14.34	7300	Upward Expansion	66	56
2025-05-02	889.08	753.00	16.50	12700	Upward Expansion	70	52
2025-04-25	886.15	747.10	19.91	209600	Upward Expansion	72	49
2025-04-18	872.45	742.47	21.58	49300	Upward Expansion	75	55
2025-04-11	798.12	739.17	15.20	42400	Upward Expansion	63	73
2025-04-04	796.16	738.78	14.28	102000	Upward Expansion	65	81
2025-03-28	884.19	739.17	15.60	55100	Upward Expansion	91	96
2025-03-21	889.08	736.89	14.59	303800	Upward Expansion	94	90
2025-03-14	774.65	734.90	1.79	66700	Balance	39	40
2025-03-07	758.02	735.82	0.03	26400	Balance	31	20
2025-02-28	733.57	735.91	-3.90	17900	Balance	-11	8
2025-02-21	735.52	738.59	-7.71	11400	Balance	-20	11
2025-02-14	736.50	743.41	-8.62	35200	Balance	-18	11
2025-02-07	732.59	748.46	-8.40	14100	Balance	-19	11
2025-01-31	734.54	753.67	-10.24	37500	Balance	-6	12
2025-01-24	734.54	758.75	-11.46	21300	Downward Expansion	-3	18
2025-01-17	730.63	763.83	-9.00	12300	Downward Expansion	-2	24
2025-01-10	747.26	769.05	-9.08	33500	Downward Expansion	1	27
2025-01-03	756.06	774.41	-10.09	11800	Downward Expansion	1	20
2024-12-27	743.35	779.49	-13.03	82700	Downward Expansion	-36	24
2024-12-20	726.72	784.05	-12.05	345700	Downward Expansion	-51	45
2024-12-13	684.66	788.59	-19.23	33000	Downward Expansion	-69	66
2024-12-06	685.64	794.14	-18.95	20500	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2024-11-29	687.60	800.59	-17.51	9300	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2024-11-22	693.46	806.85	-17.57	22400	Downward Expansion	-69	77
2024-11-15	699.33	812.82	-18.26	23100	Downward Expansion	-66	82
2024-11-08	709.11	818.36	-19.51	26500	Downward Expansion	-68	86
2024-11-01	690.53	825.71	-19.32	16700	Downward Expansion	-71	87
2024-10-25	689.55	832.16	-19.80	16100	Downward Expansion	-74	88
2024-10-18	695.42	840.29	-22.01	12100	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2024-10-11	695.42	845.49	-23.93	33900	Downward Expansion	-84	90
2024-10-04	712.05	849.65	-20.84	46600	Downward Expansion	-85	86
2024-09-27	747.26	853.06	-20.14	34600	Downward Expansion	-78	73
2024-09-20	773.67	855.11	-13.54	25800	Downward Expansion	-72	53
2024-09-13	786.38	856.27	-10.01	29400	Downward Expansion	-69	46
2024-09-06	807.90	856.34	-7.59	17300	Rotation Down	-60	44
2024-08-30	815.73	856.52	-12.72	27000	Rotation Down	-34	60
2024-08-23	829.42	857.77	-11.29	21400	Rotation Down	-35	64
2024-08-16	802.03	858.50	-14.14	23000	Rotation Down	-40	66
2024-08-09	760.95	860.23	-12.10	45200	Rotation Down	-48	62
2024-08-02	813.77	864.05	-8.89	34500	Deceleration	-35	27
2024-07-26	880.22	866.13	-6.66	18500	Upward Expansion	32	16
2024-07-19	887.96	864.94	-12.03	8400	Upward Expansion	35	20
2024-07-12	888.93	863.36	-15.02	20600	Upward Expansion	46	25
2024-07-05	887.00	862.30	-15.34	29800	Upward Expansion	50	38
2024-06-28	887.00	861.43	-13.28	27900	Upward Expansion	52	47
2024-06-21	887.00	861.10	-11.76	53300	Upward Expansion	50	44
2024-06-14	908.28	861.46	-10.77	78500	Balance	57	42
2024-06-07	908.28	860.91	-11.10	47200	Balance	56	25
2024-05-31	880.22	860.81	-14.32	20600	Balance	6	6
2024-05-24	862.81	861.07	-16.85	18100	Balance	1	6
2024-05-17	851.21	861.62	-18.83	29500	Balance	-1	6
2024-05-10	879.26	863.17	-15.55	20700	Balance	9	7
2024-05-03	875.39	863.91	-16.42	15300	Rotation Up	23	19
2024-04-26	872.49	865.04	-16.60	11300	Rotation Up	18	25
2024-04-19	865.72	868.49	-15.89	54900	Rotation Up	22	33
2024-04-12	929.56	871.20	-15.88	51300	Rotation Up	38	41
2024-04-05	884.09	872.23	-19.45	83900	Rotation Up	20	28
2024-03-29	933.43	875.74	-18.48	152000	Rotation Up	7	18
2024-03-22	851.21	878.35	-27.07	103200	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2024-03-15	820.25	882.19	-26.32	222700	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2024-03-08	814.45	886.38	-29.20	76500	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2024-03-01	808.65	891.64	-30.82	43400	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2024-02-23	808.65	898.09	-30.16	37000	Downward Expansion	-69	75
2024-02-16	788.33	905.70	-31.53	92300	Downward Expansion	-84	80
2024-02-09	813.48	914.53	-27.01	52600	Downward Expansion	-78	58
2024-02-02	853.14	922.56	-22.51	43200	Downward Expansion	-59	39
2024-01-26	851.21	930.63	-22.33	28400	Downward Expansion	-52	36
2024-01-19	854.11	938.71	-23.01	24500	Downward Expansion	-62	41
2024-01-12	875.39	945.64	-20.73	40100	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-01-05	876.36	953.68	-15.93	19300	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2023-12-29	844.44	965.39	-19.57	64400	Downward Expansion	-68	72
2023-12-22	840.57	970.02	-19.69	109600	Downward Expansion	-73	67
2023-12-15	857.01	974.85	-18.10	44900	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2023-12-08	860.88	979.44	-16.70	31000	Downward Expansion	-69	50
2023-12-01	877.32	981.26	-18.17	44300	Downward Expansion	-65	45
2023-11-24	897.64	983.70	-17.00	17900	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2023-11-17	891.83	985.41	-17.63	27200	Downward Expansion	-63	49
2023-11-10	905.37	987.37	-13.99	21500	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2023-11-03	887.96	988.86	-14.15	15500	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2023-10-27	879.26	990.44	-12.58	38100	Downward Expansion	-73	78
2023-10-20	897.64	991.45	-11.70	22800	Rotation Down	-71	71

Price vs TrendBelow-28.9%

Trend directionRising+16.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+47.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-120.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-18.5%

Relative strength directionWeakening-68.2%

Price momentumNegative-15.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.40×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-72 / ±100

-99.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

90 /100

+74.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

3441 Directional State ↗ 3441 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance23

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down80

Downward Expansion95

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 11%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 42%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 27%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	-0.1%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-09-11	Developing	+9.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-07-24	Extended	+138.4%
Balance	2025-11-21	2025-12-12	New	+0.4%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-11-14	Developing	+1.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-21	2025-09-26	Extended	+11.4%
Balance	2025-01-31	2025-03-14	Developing	+5.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-13	2025-01-24	Established	-6.6%
Rotation Down	2024-08-09	2024-09-06	Developing	+6.2%
Deceleration	2024-08-02	2024-08-02	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-06-21	2024-07-26	Developing	-0.8%
Balance	2024-05-10	2024-06-14	Developing	+3.3%
Rotation Up	2024-03-29	2024-05-03	Developing	-6.2%
Downward Expansion	2023-10-27	2024-03-22	Established	-3.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing23

Stage 2 · Advancing25

Stage 3 · Distribution47

Stage 4 · Declining75

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 97/100
Current Relative Strength: -18.49
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -15.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -36.3%
Industrials regime cohort: 93th percentile60 in cohort

Test 3441 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.47×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.40×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 3441 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 1,842.00falling

Slow Activity JPY 2,508.59falling

Trend Reference JPY 2,529.42-28.9% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 1,215.59+47.9% close margin

Structural low JPY 1,704.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +13.6%

Annualized volatility +100.5%

From structural high -51.4%

From structural low +91.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	4	-5.7%-12.0% to +6.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-5.4%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	3	-6.8%-19.5% to -2.9%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-13.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-3.7%-38.3% to +3.1%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-19.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-24.5%-26.0% to -22.9%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-33.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

3441 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map