Weekly structural research · SHZ · Industrials

003012 Stage Analysis

Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.,Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 4.74Tenure ExtendedBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -39−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 29/100directional strength

Maturity 86/100lifecycle context

Confidence 59/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -21.4%CNY 6.03 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	4.74	5.07	-10.80	28869900	Downward Expansion	-39	29
2026-09-25	4.61	5.13	-16.62	35728759	Downward Expansion	-52	38
2026-09-18	4.53	5.21	-20.66	31307800	Downward Expansion	-60	39
2026-09-11	4.57	5.28	-19.68	41890472	Downward Expansion	-48	32
2026-09-04	4.69	5.37	-18.60	50767029	Downward Expansion	-38	29
2026-08-28	4.79	5.45	-20.16	8825800	Downward Expansion	-42	34
2026-08-21	4.68	5.51	-23.29	6776659	Downward Expansion	-45	39
2026-08-14	4.67	5.57	-25.40	7090200	Downward Expansion	-48	49
2026-08-07	4.64	5.63	-26.27	10639560	Downward Expansion	-49	51
2026-07-31	4.74	5.68	-21.29	15157500	Downward Expansion	-61	59
2026-07-24	4.37	5.74	-29.03	9090500	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2026-07-17	4.69	5.81	-24.08	9708698	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2026-07-10	4.56	5.86	-33.26	8793995	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2026-07-03	4.59	5.93	-35.77	7736000	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-06-26	4.39	6.00	-39.86	11620469	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2026-06-19	4.66	6.07	-37.81	41679715	Downward Expansion	-81	91
2026-06-12	4.71	6.14	-33.33	10468000	Downward Expansion	-84	93
2026-06-05	4.91	6.21	-32.72	8058600	Downward Expansion	-80	92
2026-05-29	5.03	6.27	-32.84	41080343	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2026-05-22	5.07	6.34	-33.00	45283132	Downward Expansion	-83	92
2026-05-15	5.19	6.41	-31.79	70001908	Downward Expansion	-83	89
2026-05-08	5.39	6.47	-29.81	57179472	Downward Expansion	-82	81
2026-05-01	5.60	6.52	-25.53	46140048	Downward Expansion	-76	67
2026-04-24	5.91	6.56	-21.26	35765255	Downward Expansion	-63	70
2026-04-17	5.87	6.59	-22.05	42978993	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2026-04-10	6.00	6.62	-17.61	29181807	Downward Expansion	-65	77
2026-04-03	5.79	6.65	-15.29	39745155	Downward Expansion	-81	81
2026-03-27	5.94	6.69	-16.11	46555546	Balance	-79	63
2026-03-20	6.17	6.69	-13.76	39980360	Balance	-59	38
2026-03-13	6.50	6.68	-12.14	42942250	Upward Expansion	-10	7
2026-03-06	6.65	6.65	-9.58	42516955	Upward Expansion	39	36
2026-02-27	6.88	6.62	-8.71	28965562	Upward Expansion	47	56
2026-02-13	6.88	6.59	-6.22	39120742	Upward Expansion	46	45
2026-02-06	7.14	6.54	-1.33	68926505	Deceleration	71	50
2026-01-30	7.00	6.49	-5.39	77958240	Deceleration	53	31
2026-01-23	6.70	6.44	-11.16	46183169	Deceleration	25	17
2026-01-16	6.35	6.40	-14.99	43086460	Deceleration	-21	34
2026-01-09	6.45	6.36	-13.03	34735774	Deceleration	3	20
2026-01-02	6.24	6.33	-12.42	18543896	Deceleration	-8	24
2025-12-26	6.42	6.30	-10.75	23963304	Deceleration	3	13
2025-12-19	6.57	6.27	-5.69	27451389	Deceleration	12	13
2025-12-12	6.37	6.23	-9.55	31118259	Deceleration	3	13
2025-12-05	6.58	6.21	-6.11	33220717	Deceleration	28	18
2025-11-28	6.69	6.18	-3.61	30882113	Deceleration	31	20
2025-11-21	6.46	6.14	-3.75	39933445	Deceleration	33	21
2025-11-14	6.87	6.12	-2.96	38151721	Upward Expansion	41	27
2025-11-07	6.71	6.08	-6.62	42398546	Upward Expansion	47	36
2025-10-31	6.76	6.05	-5.73	63436071	Upward Expansion	59	47
2025-10-24	6.94	6.02	-2.60	103363031	Upward Expansion	62	53
2025-10-17	7.29	5.98	6.98	159724530	Upward Expansion	78	61
2025-10-10	6.98	5.93	-2.44	35059195	Upward Expansion	72	62
2025-10-03	6.84	5.89	-5.71	22637425	Upward Expansion	67	64
2025-09-26	6.81	5.84	-4.11	58987711	Upward Expansion	67	85
2025-09-19	6.85	5.80	-2.81	54370968	Upward Expansion	74	90
2025-09-12	6.82	5.75	-2.38	57029647	Upward Expansion	80	92
2025-09-05	6.85	5.71	0.40	112446304	Upward Expansion	89	92
2025-08-29	6.84	5.67	-0.77	136467479	Upward Expansion	94	88
2025-08-22	6.02	5.63	-9.06	38305881	Rotation Up	78	71
2025-08-15	5.83	5.61	-8.25	34366690	Rotation Up	38	52
2025-08-08	5.73	5.60	-6.17	28097764	Downward Expansion	25	36
2025-08-01	5.68	5.58	-6.19	44429888	Downward Expansion	21	28
2025-07-25	5.96	5.58	-3.39	61010987	Downward Expansion	33	28
2025-07-18	5.55	5.58	-8.17	23904152	Downward Expansion	-38	19
2025-07-11	5.53	5.59	-6.88	34185823	Downward Expansion	-53	33
2025-07-04	5.40	5.61	-7.75	28346478	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2025-06-27	5.44	5.63	-6.32	23448012	Downward Expansion	-55	46
2025-06-20	5.31	5.65	-5.55	23144302	Downward Expansion	-68	58
2025-06-13	5.41	5.66	-5.14	29391520	Balance	-61	55
2025-06-06	5.53	5.67	-3.87	17896003	Balance	-53	45
2025-05-30	5.50	5.68	-3.50	23857688	Balance	-53	42
2025-05-23	5.43	5.68	-5.93	33355600	Balance	-59	33
2025-05-16	5.53	5.69	-5.09	41732454	Balance	-23	12
2025-05-09	5.72	5.68	-2.10	22567739	Balance	-5	5
2025-05-02	5.66	5.67	-1.34	20891971	Balance	4	6
2025-04-25	5.83	5.69	1.34	32503251	Balance	21	21
2025-04-18	5.71	5.68	0.20	37778800	Balance	12	20
2025-04-11	5.59	5.65	-2.83	63043630	Balance	17	33
2025-04-04	5.96	5.62	-2.04	22669160	Balance	62	60
2025-03-28	5.74	5.59	-8.17	25841280	Balance	39	28
2025-03-21	5.79	5.56	-8.58	28155524	Balance	33	22
2025-03-14	5.78	5.53	-11.53	38998525	Balance	36	15
2025-03-07	5.53	5.51	-14.71	30649828	Balance	-11	11
2025-02-28	5.50	5.51	-13.86	38717657	Balance	-11	12
2025-02-21	5.41	5.50	-18.56	34548300	Balance	1	7
2025-02-14	5.55	5.50	-15.30	33893945	Balance	10	9
2025-02-07	5.57	5.48	-14.30	17437900	Balance	9	13
2025-01-31	5.58	5.47	-11.28	5915400	Balance	7	17
2025-01-24	5.51	5.47	-14.20	24685033	Balance	7	19
2025-01-17	5.47	5.47	-14.51	27251255	Balance	17	19
2025-01-10	5.27	5.48	-15.29	41877519	Balance	12	13
2025-01-03	5.61	5.50	-11.31	90423788	Upward Expansion	40	23
2024-12-27	5.92	5.51	-13.73	33508114	Upward Expansion	54	46
2024-12-20	5.89	5.53	-14.58	71725602	Rotation Up	55	49
2024-12-13	6.18	5.55	-11.47	79363842	Rotation Up	39	43
2024-12-06	6.01	5.58	-15.00	49993503	Balance	34	34
2024-11-29	5.93	5.62	-15.13	66066966	Balance	34	27
2024-11-22	5.58	5.62	-19.43	68783083	Balance	13	13
2024-11-15	5.73	5.64	-20.16	125299940	Balance	16	17
2024-11-08	5.87	5.67	-21.84	72691786	Balance	6	13
2024-11-01	5.41	5.69	-23.64	61054585	Balance	-8	11
2024-10-25	5.73	5.73	-21.02	52336668	Balance	2	21
2024-10-18	5.42	5.76	-24.14	68711404	Rotation Up	-8	24
2024-10-11	5.45	5.79	-22.21	70821929	Rotation Up	-12	23
2024-10-04	6.14	5.83	-17.21	22165616	Rotation Up	-2	15
2024-09-27	5.61	5.84	-16.93	57925693	Downward Expansion	-41	38
2024-09-20	4.84	5.87	-16.39	14822728	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2024-09-13	4.71	5.94	-18.46	16659428	Downward Expansion	-80	88
2024-09-06	4.88	6.00	-17.82	27999700	Downward Expansion	-74	86
2024-08-30	5.05	6.05	-18.00	23751471	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2024-08-23	4.88	6.12	-19.71	19543106	Downward Expansion	-81	85
2024-08-16	5.12	6.19	-18.09	14175519	Downward Expansion	-71	70
2024-08-09	5.34	6.27	-15.60	16108912	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2024-08-02	5.34	6.33	-17.91	15707942	Downward Expansion	-64	65
2024-07-26	5.24	6.39	-20.35	16469862	Downward Expansion	-69	71
2024-07-19	5.24	6.45	-23.42	15593571	Downward Expansion	-72	75
2024-07-12	5.25	6.52	-23.11	32959854	Downward Expansion	-75	75
2024-07-05	5.51	6.58	-17.85	23237434	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2024-06-28	5.58	6.65	-18.33	24832462	Downward Expansion	-73	75
2024-06-21	5.77	6.72	-17.54	24513903	Downward Expansion	-67	69
2024-06-14	5.83	6.79	-18.27	25141014	Balance	-66	62
2024-06-07	5.93	6.85	-16.85	50883068	Balance	-63	31
2024-05-31	6.31	6.92	-12.55	76698860	Balance	-40	21
2024-05-24	6.50	6.97	-10.36	90534744	Balance	-23	12
2024-05-17	7.18	7.03	-3.74	119378672	Balance	-2	4
2024-05-10	7.06	7.08	-5.36	141178622	Downward Expansion	-24	17
2024-05-03	5.96	7.15	-18.63	51346741	Downward Expansion	-70	43
2024-04-26	6.39	7.27	-11.65	35014112	Downward Expansion	-56	31
2024-04-19	6.64	7.37	-6.37	45413025	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2024-04-12	6.40	7.47	-9.03	28408164	Downward Expansion	-60	37
2024-04-05	6.70	7.60	-7.84	21613904	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2024-03-29	6.48	7.70	-9.42	27142618	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-03-22	6.47	7.80	-11.09	30176217	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2024-03-15	6.65	7.90	-8.96	39004935	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2024-03-08	6.30	8.00	-11.52	37756359	Downward Expansion	-71	55
2024-03-01	6.62	8.16	-7.78	47810495	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2024-02-23	6.76	8.25	-2.01	44105614	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2024-02-09	6.73	8.31	0.55	53910149	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2024-02-02	6.20	8.35	1.65	45687771	Downward Expansion	-85	67
2024-01-26	7.21	8.38	9.02	36022140	Downward Expansion	-59	54
2024-01-19	7.06	8.37	6.59	26261646	Downward Expansion	-69	61
2024-01-12	7.30	8.37	8.14	26881331	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2024-01-05	7.21	8.35	5.96	25085624	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2023-12-29	7.21	8.33	1.78	26046982	Rotation Down	-67	85
2023-12-22	7.13	8.31	4.10	25516669	Rotation Down	-48	79
2023-12-15	7.23	8.30	4.06	30060200	Rotation Down	-48	77
2023-12-08	7.13	8.29	1.03	27705123	Rotation Down	-56	74
2023-12-01	7.43	8.29	3.83	45405334	Rotation Down	-50	65
2023-11-24	7.73	8.29	7.02	51338646	Rotation Down	-33	64
2023-11-17	7.80	8.27	6.91	29430395	Rotation Down	-34	67
2023-11-10	7.83	8.26	7.88	27509154	Rotation Down	-35	66
2023-11-03	7.86	8.25	10.33	36407758	Deceleration	-35	51
2023-10-27	7.85	8.24	11.78	56164434	Deceleration	-14	27
2023-10-20	8.47	8.24	23.82	26670462	Deceleration	15	19
2023-10-13	8.53	8.22	19.38	48565113	Deceleration	27	21
2023-09-29	9.31	8.18	30.49	20876060	Deceleration	42	28
2023-09-22	9.41	8.15	32.08	29574580	Deceleration	46	36

Price vs TrendBelow-6.4%

Trend directionFalling-11.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-21.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-10.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+25.0%

Price momentumNegative-18.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.74×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-39 / ±100

-0.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

29 /100

-0.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

003012 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance44

Rotation Up23

Upward Expansion9

Deceleration66

Rotation Down39

Downward Expansion66

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 12%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 44%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-10-02	Extended	-18.2%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-03-27	New	-3.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-03-13	New	-5.5%
Deceleration	2025-11-21	2026-02-06	Developing	+10.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-11-14	Developing	+0.4%
Rotation Up	2025-08-15	2025-08-22	New	+3.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-08-08	Developing	+7.9%
Balance	2025-01-10	2025-06-13	Established	+2.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-01-03	New	-5.1%
Rotation Up	2024-12-13	2024-12-20	New	-4.7%
Balance	2024-10-25	2024-12-06	Developing	+4.8%
Rotation Up	2024-10-04	2024-10-18	New	-11.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-21	2024-09-27	Established	-2.7%
Balance	2024-05-17	2024-06-14	Developing	-18.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing72

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution4

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 87/100
Current Relative Strength: -10.80
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -18.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -14.7%
Industrials regime cohort: 16th percentile447 in cohort

Test 003012 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.34×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.74×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 003012 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 4.64falling

Slow Activity CNY 4.78falling

Trend Reference CNY 5.07-6.4% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 6.03-21.4% close margin

Structural low CNY 4.37shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.2%

Annualized volatility +24.6%

From structural high -38.6%

From structural low +8.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	26	+0.4%-14.1% to +26.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-2.0%	+80.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	+3.5%-20.8% to +48.3%	+60.0%	+40.0%	-5.7%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+0.3%-27.2% to +23.9%	+57.1%	+42.9%	-7.5%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-10.6%-17.3% to -4.3%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-12.7%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

003012 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map