Weekly structural research · LIS · Industrials

CTT Stage Analysis

CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 5.74Tenure NewBenchmark PSI20.LS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -28−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 35/100directional strength

Maturity 55/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +4.5%EUR 5.49 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	5.74	6.11	-15.12	1504799	Deceleration	-28	35
2026-10-02	5.90	6.14	-14.64	2320068	Deceleration	5	16
2026-09-25	6.26	6.16	-12.67	1733307	Rotation Up	44	29
2026-09-18	6.36	6.18	-10.19	1159007	Rotation Up	34	38
2026-09-11	6.31	6.20	-11.45	2212976	Rotation Up	38	65
2026-09-04	6.49	6.23	-8.22	327508	Rotation Up	44	73
2026-08-28	6.60	6.25	-7.56	283637	Rotation Up	50	73
2026-08-21	6.41	6.24	-9.99	360785	Rotation Up	38	44
2026-08-14	6.32	6.25	-10.96	140057	Downward Expansion	10	25
2026-08-07	6.29	6.27	-11.23	196635	Downward Expansion	-10	10
2026-07-31	6.16	6.30	-13.01	338983	Downward Expansion	-38	30
2026-07-24	5.92	6.34	-17.82	402332	Downward Expansion	-58	51
2026-07-17	5.76	6.38	-19.32	253187	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2026-07-10	5.80	6.43	-19.81	490213	Downward Expansion	-72	57
2026-07-03	6.08	6.47	-18.71	361609	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2026-06-26	5.94	6.50	-19.33	270493	Downward Expansion	-61	57
2026-06-19	6.02	6.53	-18.71	183056	Downward Expansion	-57	50
2026-06-12	5.99	6.56	-19.48	604611	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2026-06-05	5.94	6.60	-19.24	255989	Downward Expansion	-62	39
2026-05-29	6.06	6.64	-19.47	1736473	Downward Expansion	-57	35
2026-05-22	6.15	6.68	-19.68	2265666	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2026-05-15	6.13	6.71	-19.33	1445409	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2026-05-08	6.12	6.73	-20.22	2717943	Downward Expansion	-46	31
2026-05-01	6.22	6.75	-21.74	905961	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2026-04-24	6.10	6.78	-22.01	1367198	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2026-04-17	6.40	6.81	-19.38	1919497	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-04-10	6.55	6.84	-20.40	2144021	Downward Expansion	-63	72
2026-04-03	6.12	6.86	-25.39	2421448	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2026-03-27	5.66	6.89	-27.87	2236562	Downward Expansion	-86	91
2026-03-20	5.56	6.94	-28.72	4588579	Downward Expansion	-92	86
2026-03-13	6.49	7.01	-20.96	1481516	Downward Expansion	-69	53
2026-03-06	6.62	7.04	-18.15	1843843	Downward Expansion	-64	32
2026-02-27	6.92	7.06	-17.87	1156742	Downward Expansion	-32	16
2026-02-20	7.00	7.07	-15.65	907312	Downward Expansion	-45	24
2026-02-13	6.94	7.08	-15.88	2083575	Downward Expansion	-51	49
2026-02-06	7.09	7.10	-12.47	2221757	Downward Expansion	-45	48
2026-01-30	6.59	7.12	-17.47	1470948	Balance	-67	62
2026-01-23	6.63	7.14	-16.13	2042964	Balance	-61	41
2026-01-16	6.97	7.17	-12.80	1500104	Balance	-21	10
2026-01-09	7.17	7.17	-8.95	1342490	Balance	10	12
2026-01-02	7.20	7.16	-7.18	649652	Balance	10	12
2025-12-26	7.16	7.17	-5.09	402628	Balance	-12	11
2025-12-19	7.21	7.17	-4.58	2169262	Balance	-24	10
2025-12-12	7.08	7.16	-3.66	1333998	Balance	-45	27
2025-12-05	7.09	7.15	-5.44	1620347	Balance	-45	32
2025-11-28	6.84	7.13	-7.48	1003699	Balance	-54	32
2025-11-21	6.86	7.14	-6.21	1301230	Balance	-41	19
2025-11-14	7.03	7.15	-5.72	1533547	Balance	-3	8
2025-11-07	7.20	7.14	-2.33	5278006	Balance	-2	4
2025-10-31	7.33	7.11	-2.96	3583661	Rotation Down	-10	13
2025-10-24	7.02	7.09	-5.94	1969857	Rotation Down	-27	39
2025-10-17	6.70	7.10	-8.66	1772529	Balance	-35	48
2025-10-10	6.89	7.11	-4.49	2187025	Balance	-25	29
2025-10-03	7.03	7.11	-1.30	892158	Balance	-16	17
2025-09-26	7.07	7.09	1.85	1045189	Balance	5	13
2025-09-19	7.32	7.07	9.43	1267434	Balance	16	16
2025-09-12	7.13	7.05	6.83	1116065	Upward Expansion	13	13
2025-09-05	6.89	7.02	4.48	1472668	Upward Expansion	14	8
2025-08-29	7.12	6.99	7.88	1558995	Upward Expansion	36	24
2025-08-22	7.59	6.94	12.51	960274	Upward Expansion	62	36
2025-08-15	7.50	6.87	14.96	1461393	Upward Expansion	60	32
2025-08-08	7.37	6.79	13.99	1895911	Upward Expansion	55	32
2025-08-01	7.09	6.71	12.74	3821166	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-07-25	7.40	6.64	17.35	1638651	Upward Expansion	59	53
2025-07-18	7.44	6.56	19.32	1473111	Upward Expansion	60	55
2025-07-11	7.70	6.48	23.67	2040229	Upward Expansion	74	50
2025-07-04	7.29	6.37	17.29	1341825	Upward Expansion	59	39
2025-06-27	7.32	6.27	22.77	1912018	Upward Expansion	63	42
2025-06-20	6.95	6.17	18.85	2532605	Upward Expansion	55	40
2025-06-13	7.04	6.08	20.98	1612463	Upward Expansion	56	43
2025-06-06	7.36	5.98	27.72	1690422	Upward Expansion	70	48
2025-05-30	7.18	5.87	27.03	1537518	Upward Expansion	65	39
2025-05-23	6.97	5.77	25.39	1977606	Upward Expansion	62	40
2025-05-16	6.71	5.67	23.35	4489317	Upward Expansion	48	40
2025-05-09	6.43	5.58	23.56	4425841	Upward Expansion	59	47
2025-05-02	7.30	5.50	42.00	1410524	Upward Expansion	78	60
2025-04-25	7.19	5.40	41.87	1418775	Upward Expansion	78	58
2025-04-18	6.73	5.29	38.53	1677145	Upward Expansion	54	53
2025-04-11	6.29	5.21	34.94	1871717	Upward Expansion	65	63
2025-04-04	6.79	5.14	44.45	1932051	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-03-28	7.26	5.06	49.11	1669671	Upward Expansion	90	79
2025-03-21	6.94	4.95	47.53	2143121	Upward Expansion	84	86
2025-03-14	6.73	4.86	45.32	1032556	Upward Expansion	77	85
2025-03-07	6.62	4.77	43.70	977190	Upward Expansion	78	91
2025-02-28	6.58	4.68	45.14	1323359	Upward Expansion	85	94
2025-02-21	6.59	4.59	49.17	1579785	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-02-14	6.27	4.52	44.97	1698878	Upward Expansion	94	96
2025-02-07	5.84	4.45	39.57	1616589	Upward Expansion	90	89
2025-01-31	5.57	4.40	34.35	677757	Upward Expansion	88	91
2025-01-24	5.51	4.34	34.72	1522125	Upward Expansion	92	93
2025-01-17	5.13	4.29	25.32	819677	Upward Expansion	76	90
2025-01-10	4.99	4.25	28.22	730381	Upward Expansion	71	90
2025-01-03	5.09	4.22	28.85	497553	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-12-27	4.95	4.18	27.83	589373	Upward Expansion	88	93
2024-12-20	5.10	4.16	34.96	3062157	Upward Expansion	96	90
2024-12-13	4.34	4.12	14.68	617834	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-12-06	4.36	4.12	16.07	984742	Balance	71	62
2024-11-29	4.22	4.10	11.82	1072379	Balance	54	41
2024-11-22	4.26	4.10	13.45	850416	Balance	49	29
2024-11-15	4.14	4.09	10.52	663909	Balance	29	11
2024-11-08	4.10	4.09	10.81	693490	Balance	-9	10
2024-11-01	4.14	4.09	8.66	1382494	Balance	-5	16
2024-10-25	3.97	4.08	6.03	476452	Balance	-23	22
2024-10-18	4.05	4.07	5.91	613734	Balance	17	15
2024-10-11	4.09	4.06	5.81	466718	Upward Expansion	24	13
2024-10-04	4.02	4.03	6.26	541887	Upward Expansion	24	13
2024-09-27	4.14	4.01	7.12	447109	Upward Expansion	52	39
2024-09-20	4.18	3.98	10.04	1152835	Upward Expansion	55	51
2024-09-13	4.26	3.95	10.52	665006	Upward Expansion	61	52
2024-09-06	4.22	3.92	11.85	599340	Upward Expansion	55	30
2024-08-30	4.22	3.89	11.79	878637	Upward Expansion	45	20
2024-08-23	4.09	3.86	9.76	704279	Upward Expansion	28	20
2024-08-16	3.99	3.84	8.20	582277	Upward Expansion	32	16
2024-08-09	3.95	3.81	9.23	1276386	Upward Expansion	45	30
2024-08-02	3.97	3.79	9.29	3084214	Upward Expansion	54	42
2024-07-26	4.39	3.77	19.79	985639	Upward Expansion	78	67
2024-07-19	4.28	3.73	14.99	926750	Deceleration	72	47
2024-07-12	4.16	3.69	11.90	1265619	Deceleration	53	31
2024-07-05	3.93	3.66	8.27	571268	Deceleration	36	21
2024-06-28	3.96	3.64	12.59	629474	Deceleration	41	27
2024-06-21	4.00	3.61	12.40	1083207	Upward Expansion	47	38
2024-06-14	3.99	3.59	12.88	1525169	Upward Expansion	48	40
2024-06-07	4.02	3.56	10.86	1024106	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-05-31	4.14	3.54	12.38	1625080	Upward Expansion	70	60
2024-05-24	4.13	3.51	11.99	1646874	Upward Expansion	73	64
2024-05-17	4.10	3.48	11.64	2466518	Upward Expansion	74	67
2024-05-10	3.97	3.44	8.10	1774168	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-05-03	4.05	3.41	14.59	1418876	Upward Expansion	71	86
2024-04-26	4.06	3.38	15.94	1097111	Upward Expansion	78	92
2024-04-19	4.06	3.35	22.30	1657943	Upward Expansion	83	94
2024-04-12	4.01	3.32	20.53	1706982	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-04-05	3.90	3.28	19.68	1221045	Upward Expansion	87	94
2024-03-29	3.75	3.26	14.66	1059459	Upward Expansion	85	86
2024-03-22	3.81	3.23	17.62	4961771	Upward Expansion	86	55
2024-03-15	3.25	3.21	2.44	2288929	Upward Expansion	33	17
2024-03-08	3.26	3.20	2.37	1095743	Upward Expansion	42	26
2024-03-01	3.28	3.20	2.15	975054	Upward Expansion	58	39
2024-02-23	3.37	3.19	4.21	833816	Upward Expansion	70	61
2024-02-16	3.34	3.19	3.82	881396	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-02-09	3.34	3.19	5.18	1702086	Upward Expansion	68	70
2024-02-02	3.32	3.19	2.44	908284	Upward Expansion	64	69
2024-01-26	3.32	3.18	1.93	1613001	Upward Expansion	64	64
2024-01-19	3.30	3.18	0.75	1250548	Upward Expansion	60	52
2024-01-12	3.33	3.17	-1.84	1485579	Upward Expansion	65	41
2024-01-05	3.25	3.16	-3.79	1110069	Upward Expansion	44	21
2023-12-29	3.17	3.16	-4.14	719310	Upward Expansion	34	16
2023-12-22	3.19	3.15	-3.90	826088	Upward Expansion	38	21
2023-12-15	3.22	3.15	-3.03	1595742	Upward Expansion	51	29
2023-12-08	3.22	3.14	-5.01	1123507	Upward Expansion	53	35
2023-12-01	3.26	3.15	-3.08	944965	Upward Expansion	61	49
2023-11-24	3.23	3.15	-1.08	737945	Rotation Up	56	54
2023-11-17	3.22	3.15	-0.52	966882	Rotation Up	27	39
2023-11-10	3.22	3.15	0.01	1409766	Balance	17	27
2023-11-03	3.28	3.15	-0.51	2525659	Balance	28	24
2023-10-27	3.20	3.15	0.04	1167879	Downward Expansion	-15	9
2023-10-20	3.10	3.14	-0.06	1309817	Downward Expansion	-34	15

Price vs TrendBelow-6.2%

Trend directionFalling-3.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+4.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-6.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-15.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.7%

Price momentumNegative-12.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.35×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-28 / ±100

-66.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

35 /100

-29.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CTT Directional State ↗ CTT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance46

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion25

Deceleration75

Rotation Down64

Downward Expansion33

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 18%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 53%Deceleration 4%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 19%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	-2.7%
Rotation Up	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	-2.4%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-08-14	Extended	-11.0%
Balance	2025-11-07	2026-01-30	Established	-8.5%
Rotation Down	2025-10-24	2025-10-31	New	+4.4%
Balance	2025-09-19	2025-10-17	Developing	-8.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-09-12	Extended	+64.3%
Balance	2024-10-18	2024-12-06	Developing	+7.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-10-11	Developing	-6.9%
Deceleration	2024-06-28	2024-07-19	New	+8.0%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-01	2024-06-21	Extended	+22.6%
Rotation Up	2023-11-17	2023-11-24	New	+0.4%
Balance	2023-11-03	2023-11-10	New	-1.8%
Downward Expansion	2023-09-08	2023-10-27	Developing	+4.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution38

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus PSI20.LS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 97/100
Current Relative Strength: -15.12
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -12.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -10.5%
Industrials regime cohort: 100th percentile2 in cohort

Test CTT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.99×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.35×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CTT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 6.00falling

Slow Activity EUR 6.14falling

Trend Reference EUR 6.11-6.2% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 5.49+4.5% close margin

Structural low EUR 5.62shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.9%

Annualized volatility +17.8%

From structural high -23.0%

From structural low +5.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs PSI20.LS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	4	+0.9%-2.3% to +10.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.6%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	3	-0.2%-8.4% to +4.5%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-0.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-0.5%-7.5% to +24.8%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-1.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+18.3%-25.4% to +84.6%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+14.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CTT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map