Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

GOS Stage Analysis

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 800.40Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Momentum cooling

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -41−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 64/100directional strength

Maturity 43/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +40.7%EUR 569.06 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	800.40	843.58	-1.37	2461	Deceleration	-41	64
2026-09-25	809.40	840.39	-0.69	6421	Deceleration	-23	45
2026-09-18	822.40	838.00	1.53	1977	Deceleration	-15	19
2026-09-11	886.40	836.28	8.57	1077	Deceleration	17	16
2026-09-04	883.40	831.68	6.68	1037	Deceleration	18	19
2026-08-28	894.90	827.93	6.44	238	Deceleration	31	24
2026-08-21	864.47	823.92	5.01	228	Deceleration	33	29
2026-08-14	890.32	821.07	7.41	647	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-08-07	895.69	818.88	9.12	126	Upward Expansion	49	43
2026-07-31	885.95	815.68	11.46	449	Upward Expansion	52	49
2026-07-24	941.60	811.28	21.65	223	Upward Expansion	72	63
2026-07-17	941.40	805.14	23.91	459	Upward Expansion	75	64
2026-07-10	922.60	798.95	21.32	303	Upward Expansion	70	65
2026-07-03	891.20	793.39	14.87	15	Upward Expansion	66	75
2026-06-26	905.40	787.74	22.68	365	Upward Expansion	68	87
2026-06-19	951.80	781.03	28.39	20	Upward Expansion	86	94
2026-06-12	924.40	771.07	27.69	191	Upward Expansion	84	94
2026-06-05	924.00	762.78	28.28	459	Upward Expansion	92	95
2026-05-29	871.50	753.71	20.59	629	Upward Expansion	85	86
2026-05-22	855.38	747.10	20.44	926	Upward Expansion	84	80
2026-05-15	817.18	740.61	20.60	786	Upward Expansion	75	71
2026-05-08	790.52	734.36	15.71	1176	Upward Expansion	64	61
2026-05-01	781.56	729.65	15.54	1017	Deceleration	58	47
2026-04-24	782.56	725.65	17.38	706	Deceleration	50	39
2026-04-17	778.58	722.05	15.00	2323	Deceleration	45	29
2026-04-10	765.85	718.45	18.30	1740	Deceleration	33	15
2026-04-03	742.76	714.68	18.88	988	Deceleration	-14	23
2026-03-27	697.60	710.42	16.99	1577	Deceleration	-23	33
2026-03-20	702.77	707.99	18.25	3093	Deceleration	-21	31
2026-03-13	685.26	705.20	10.81	2368	Deceleration	-11	23
2026-03-06	704.86	702.79	13.97	4624	Deceleration	10	16
2026-02-27	737.59	699.47	11.97	1899	Deceleration	34	21
2026-02-20	770.82	694.80	17.45	1245	Deceleration	40	27
2026-02-13	748.57	689.19	15.98	1462	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-02-06	770.72	684.04	20.62	1787	Upward Expansion	61	51
2026-01-30	774.57	677.94	22.39	1162	Upward Expansion	65	60
2026-01-23	779.12	672.09	21.68	1965	Upward Expansion	67	64
2026-01-16	824.51	665.35	27.12	1475	Upward Expansion	87	88
2026-01-09	799.79	655.98	23.91	1823	Upward Expansion	85	87
2026-01-02	753.81	646.74	20.72	1624	Upward Expansion	69	85
2025-12-26	757.37	639.07	22.62	597	Upward Expansion	73	88
2025-12-19	755.89	631.04	23.05	1681	Upward Expansion	79	87
2025-12-12	755.69	622.91	23.96	1757	Upward Expansion	84	81
2025-12-05	721.67	615.68	19.59	1016	Upward Expansion	78	59
2025-11-28	704.06	607.96	17.90	556	Upward Expansion	75	48
2025-11-21	653.03	600.56	12.98	1519	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-11-14	675.74	594.29	13.03	1774	Upward Expansion	66	48
2025-11-07	651.85	586.27	10.46	1057	Upward Expansion	46	37
2025-10-31	673.38	578.30	12.27	2399	Upward Expansion	71	50
2025-10-24	660.70	569.76	9.21	918	Upward Expansion	56	44
2025-10-17	629.73	563.98	6.18	3559	Upward Expansion	60	51
2025-10-10	649.20	559.78	7.83	2007	Upward Expansion	64	68
2025-10-03	661.29	554.20	9.51	1549	Upward Expansion	66	81
2025-09-26	674.76	548.57	15.17	1075	Upward Expansion	82	86
2025-09-19	670.63	545.22	15.50	1260	Upward Expansion	86	78
2025-09-12	652.64	542.63	12.60	1634	Upward Expansion	84	71
2025-09-05	614.98	541.10	7.00	521	Upward Expansion	66	71
2025-08-29	624.81	541.12	7.56	757	Upward Expansion	75	77
2025-08-22	619.05	540.28	4.79	956	Upward Expansion	75	71
2025-08-15	612.90	539.20	3.92	977	Upward Expansion	74	74
2025-08-08	605.08	538.30	3.55	1188	Upward Expansion	72	73
2025-08-01	597.75	535.73	5.59	3424	Rotation Up	68	80
2025-07-25	602.54	533.84	3.11	1014	Rotation Up	48	79
2025-07-18	593.84	531.56	1.40	2811	Rotation Up	47	77
2025-07-11	587.79	529.36	0.59	1905	Rotation Up	40	72
2025-07-04	599.02	527.83	4.68	2840	Rotation Up	49	69
2025-06-27	577.04	526.06	0.06	2489	Rotation Up	40	53
2025-06-20	543.33	525.40	-2.89	2339	Balance	27	28
2025-06-13	522.72	525.82	-7.17	1882	Balance	-3	16
2025-06-06	523.50	526.43	-10.04	2175	Balance	-3	19
2025-05-30	516.66	526.61	-10.09	1483	Balance	-18	23
2025-05-23	511.89	524.87	-9.53	3668	Downward Expansion	-25	26
2025-05-16	538.90	523.10	-5.31	3203	Downward Expansion	-19	21
2025-05-09	489.93	520.75	-12.87	4482	Downward Expansion	-45	30
2025-05-02	482.02	519.50	-12.79	3581	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2025-04-25	464.97	517.69	-12.73	3702	Rotation Down	-66	69
2025-04-18	435.29	516.69	-14.29	10068	Rotation Down	-42	71
2025-04-11	412.65	516.51	-15.42	9896	Rotation Down	-56	75
2025-04-04	417.12	516.63	-15.55	7231	Rotation Down	-52	72
2025-03-28	487.31	516.93	-9.29	3170	Deceleration	-33	46
2025-03-21	503.83	515.36	-7.84	4957	Deceleration	-26	41
2025-03-14	481.63	513.15	-12.09	6990	Deceleration	-18	32
2025-03-07	492.56	511.58	-10.03	4922	Upward Expansion	9	14
2025-02-28	574.26	509.42	7.23	2892	Upward Expansion	63	57
2025-02-21	592.85	504.21	12.58	3838	Upward Expansion	67	80
2025-02-14	606.67	499.11	14.69	4826	Upward Expansion	71	88
2025-02-07	615.57	493.05	20.97	3990	Upward Expansion	85	93
2025-01-31	599.91	486.58	19.02	2912	Upward Expansion	80	75
2025-01-24	586.57	480.15	18.96	6700	Upward Expansion	79	64
2025-01-17	585.89	474.08	22.44	7174	Upward Expansion	83	61
2025-01-10	527.99	468.08	14.91	1264	Upward Expansion	46	42
2025-01-03	541.04	463.78	20.25	820	Upward Expansion	51	49
2024-12-27	533.98	459.23	18.94	484	Upward Expansion	60	57
2024-12-20	528.08	454.68	18.93	1775	Upward Expansion	64	64
2024-12-13	541.71	450.58	19.61	1306	Upward Expansion	67	83
2024-12-06	546.06	446.12	21.41	1899	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-11-29	557.08	441.32	29.61	888	Upward Expansion	82	94
2024-11-22	556.12	435.66	32.60	1817	Upward Expansion	92	97
2024-11-15	540.83	429.68	30.95	2500	Upward Expansion	94	97
2024-11-08	528.91	423.68	29.18	4584	Upward Expansion	95	94
2024-11-01	464.48	417.62	14.13	1208	Upward Expansion	70	77
2024-10-25	458.95	413.98	12.12	501	Upward Expansion	67	69
2024-10-18	468.18	410.89	13.86	3058	Upward Expansion	78	67
2024-10-11	452.50	407.20	12.27	1851	Deceleration	68	40
2024-10-04	427.69	403.38	8.02	1260	Deceleration	38	20
2024-09-27	435.00	400.43	8.31	753	Deceleration	46	24
2024-09-20	429.86	397.26	11.71	1185	Upward Expansion	42	25
2024-09-13	416.15	394.38	8.72	2840	Upward Expansion	44	30
2024-09-06	426.35	391.78	14.15	1065	Upward Expansion	59	45
2024-08-30	440.05	388.74	14.63	228	Upward Expansion	69	54
2024-08-23	437.47	385.30	16.23	1299	Upward Expansion	68	52
2024-08-16	434.66	381.66	18.11	690	Upward Expansion	70	56
2024-08-09	427.63	378.03	20.82	2265	Upward Expansion	65	56
2024-08-02	418.22	374.59	19.26	1198	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-07-26	439.77	371.77	20.83	1798	Upward Expansion	88	85
2024-07-19	424.67	368.09	18.94	2854	Upward Expansion	79	67
2024-07-12	421.57	364.82	15.04	818	Upward Expansion	82	66
2024-07-05	406.90	361.81	13.32	545	Upward Expansion	66	58
2024-06-28	404.61	358.42	14.73	1833	Upward Expansion	66	60
2024-06-21	405.90	354.89	16.15	523	Upward Expansion	70	64
2024-06-14	398.83	351.01	15.77	662	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-06-07	404.61	347.41	14.47	370	Upward Expansion	70	72
2024-05-31	397.59	343.34	13.29	274	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-05-24	405.15	339.56	14.71	659	Upward Expansion	77	91
2024-05-17	407.81	334.70	15.90	3030	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-05-10	402.07	329.97	14.41	888	Upward Expansion	90	94
2024-05-03	387.21	325.81	15.43	871	Upward Expansion	87	78
2024-04-26	376.82	322.09	11.88	1470	Upward Expansion	84	64
2024-04-19	360.69	319.13	9.98	1027	Upward Expansion	69	58
2024-04-12	347.16	316.73	4.98	489	Upward Expansion	62	58
2024-04-05	355.23	315.21	6.15	835	Upward Expansion	63	66
2024-03-29	366.43	312.77	7.87	564	Upward Expansion	87	71
2024-03-22	357.51	309.98	7.16	1770	Upward Expansion	84	65
2024-03-15	337.77	307.21	2.97	1112	Upward Expansion	63	58
2024-03-08	339.29	305.16	4.25	693	Upward Expansion	65	59
2024-03-01	339.86	303.43	4.91	733	Upward Expansion	68	63
2024-02-23	343.29	302.09	7.83	635	Upward Expansion	76	71
2024-02-16	338.39	300.52	8.07	1151	Upward Expansion	72	65
2024-02-09	335.00	299.01	8.14	1183	Upward Expansion	71	64
2024-02-02	336.89	296.80	8.71	1165	Upward Expansion	78	66
2024-01-26	328.13	294.42	5.57	1441	Upward Expansion	65	61
2024-01-19	325.87	292.66	7.39	1289	Upward Expansion	66	71
2024-01-12	324.55	290.73	6.00	1056	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-01-05	333.50	289.46	9.49	605	Upward Expansion	79	92
2023-12-29	329.35	287.89	7.09	673	Upward Expansion	80	92
2023-12-22	326.71	286.23	6.38	1348	Upward Expansion	86	94
2023-12-15	331.05	284.60	7.30	1644	Upward Expansion	94	91
2023-12-08	305.43	282.81	-1.22	1113	Upward Expansion	79	74
2023-12-01	298.65	281.62	-1.63	632	Balance	69	51
2023-11-24	289.35	280.66	-2.97	1085	Balance	46	34
2023-11-17	290.84	280.49	-2.32	468	Balance	26	13
2023-11-10	282.72	280.27	-1.26	2183	Rotation Down	-18	30
2023-11-03	284.03	280.20	-1.01	2374	Rotation Down	-20	41
2023-10-27	259.48	279.72	-6.97	3931	Rotation Down	-52	62
2023-10-20	265.73	280.21	-5.98	3053	Balance	-34	35
2023-10-13	277.31	280.17	-4.90	1167	Balance	4	8

Price vs TrendBelow-5.1%

Trend directionRising+4.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+40.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-30.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-16.2%

Price momentumPositive+7.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.18×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-41 / ±100

-59.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

64 /100

+44.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

GOS Directional State ↗ GOS Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance30

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion28

Deceleration50

Rotation Down70

Downward Expansion53

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 6%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 68%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 3%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-21	2026-10-02	Developing	-7.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-08-14	Established	+12.6%
Deceleration	2026-02-20	2026-05-01	Developing	+1.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2026-02-13	Extended	+23.7%
Rotation Up	2025-06-27	2025-08-01	Developing	+3.6%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-06-20	New	+5.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-05-23	New	+6.2%
Rotation Down	2025-04-04	2025-04-25	New	+11.5%
Deceleration	2025-03-14	2025-03-28	New	+1.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-18	2025-03-07	Established	+5.2%
Deceleration	2024-09-27	2024-10-11	New	+4.0%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-08	2024-09-20	Extended	+40.7%
Balance	2023-11-17	2023-12-01	New	+2.7%
Rotation Down	2023-10-27	2023-11-10	New	+9.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing14

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution71

Stage 4 · Declining48

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3C · Breakdown watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 71/100
Current Relative Strength: -1.37
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +7.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -1.1%
Financial Services regime cohort: 100th percentile23 in cohort

Test GOS trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.70×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.18×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore GOS Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 824.20falling

Slow Activity EUR 868.93falling

Trend Reference EUR 843.58-5.1% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 569.06+40.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 734.21shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.6%

Annualized volatility +22.5%

From structural high -16.2%

From structural low +28.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	+4.5%-16.2% to +12.5%	+58.3%	+58.3%	-0.2%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+7.2%-10.8% to +22.8%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+2.5%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+12.0%-12.7% to +38.5%	+60.0%	+60.0%	-3.3%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-1.4%-6.7% to +55.1%	+33.3%	+33.3%	+12.6%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

GOS Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map