Weekly structural research · GER · Consumer Defensive

SWA Stage Analysis

Schloss Wachenheim AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 15.50Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 72−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 53/100directional strength

Maturity 36/100lifecycle context

Confidence 70/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +8.3%EUR 14.31 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	15.50	14.21	5.03	3601	Upward Expansion	72	53
2026-09-25	15.45	14.17	4.02	22776	Upward Expansion	77	54
2026-09-18	14.80	14.13	0.08	4479	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-09-11	14.70	14.12	-1.65	7922	Upward Expansion	65	74
2026-09-04	14.95	14.10	-1.87	2609	Upward Expansion	66	84
2026-08-28	14.95	14.09	-3.84	1124	Rotation Up	67	85
2026-08-21	15.45	14.06	0.91	6995	Rotation Up	63	82
2026-08-14	14.95	14.03	-3.47	1665	Rotation Up	47	54
2026-08-07	14.40	14.02	-6.65	3305	Downward Expansion	9	14
2026-07-31	13.85	14.02	-7.91	2768	Downward Expansion	-52	31
2026-07-24	13.70	14.04	-7.17	396	Downward Expansion	-57	53
2026-07-17	13.60	14.07	-7.02	12	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-07-10	13.60	14.10	-8.02	769	Downward Expansion	-64	47
2026-07-03	13.70	14.14	-10.07	77	Downward Expansion	-56	34
2026-06-26	13.55	14.18	-7.32	2043	Downward Expansion	-68	37
2026-06-19	14.05	14.22	-5.26	0	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2026-06-12	13.90	14.25	-5.08	415	Downward Expansion	-53	33
2026-06-05	13.75	14.29	-6.71	27	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2026-05-29	13.90	14.33	-7.08	3181	Downward Expansion	-54	41
2026-05-22	13.80	14.37	-7.03	3379	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2026-05-15	13.70	14.41	-4.21	2463	Downward Expansion	-65	39
2026-05-08	13.95	14.45	-4.14	6897	Downward Expansion	-52	31
2026-05-01	14.00	14.47	-3.75	3408	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2026-04-24	14.00	14.48	-3.21	5065	Downward Expansion	-56	46
2026-04-17	13.95	14.49	-5.96	15833	Downward Expansion	-59	59
2026-04-10	13.75	14.50	-4.19	1724	Downward Expansion	-69	65
2026-04-03	14.00	14.50	-0.08	2044	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2026-03-27	13.90	14.50	2.92	4246	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2026-03-20	14.10	14.51	4.07	4073	Downward Expansion	-56	34
2026-03-13	14.30	14.52	0.86	6133	Deceleration	-19	11
2026-03-06	14.30	14.52	0.31	5131	Deceleration	-21	14
2026-02-27	14.40	14.51	-5.71	6578	Deceleration	-18	12
2026-02-20	14.60	14.50	-4.44	10188	Deceleration	-16	13
2026-02-13	14.10	14.50	-6.56	14100	Deceleration	-21	27
2026-02-06	14.40	14.51	-3.92	11833	Deceleration	-11	12
2026-01-30	14.30	14.51	-4.00	8002	Deceleration	-17	23
2026-01-23	14.30	14.52	-5.53	6768	Deceleration	-18	19
2026-01-16	14.70	14.53	-4.60	4806	Deceleration	9	11
2026-01-09	14.30	14.51	-7.31	9540	Deceleration	-19	18
2026-01-02	14.50	14.51	-3.65	2249	Deceleration	16	13
2025-12-26	14.60	14.50	-2.55	6987	Deceleration	25	15
2025-12-19	14.60	14.48	-2.61	3110	Deceleration	31	17
2025-12-12	14.80	14.46	-1.16	445	Upward Expansion	38	21
2025-12-05	14.80	14.45	-0.73	10660	Upward Expansion	42	25
2025-11-28	14.70	14.44	-0.80	7874	Upward Expansion	55	34
2025-11-21	15.20	14.42	5.55	3601	Upward Expansion	67	51
2025-11-14	15.00	14.39	0.51	10757	Upward Expansion	62	57
2025-11-07	15.00	14.38	1.54	2536	Upward Expansion	66	68
2025-10-31	15.00	14.33	-0.34	3442	Upward Expansion	69	70
2025-10-24	14.90	14.28	-2.42	2666	Upward Expansion	65	63
2025-10-17	14.90	14.24	-1.14	4455	Deceleration	65	52
2025-10-10	14.62	14.20	-5.04	5340	Deceleration	43	25
2025-10-03	14.52	14.16	-6.62	5973	Deceleration	39	16
2025-09-26	14.23	14.13	-6.48	4024	Deceleration	-7	15
2025-09-19	14.04	14.12	-7.76	936	Deceleration	-11	21
2025-09-12	14.04	14.11	-8.45	4027	Deceleration	-12	17
2025-09-05	13.85	14.09	-9.77	5442	Deceleration	-4	9
2025-08-29	14.23	14.08	-8.94	4897	Deceleration	17	10
2025-08-22	14.33	14.06	-10.46	1802	Deceleration	26	16
2025-08-15	14.23	14.04	-11.47	3479	Deceleration	27	14
2025-08-08	14.13	14.03	-11.88	2829	Deceleration	27	14
2025-08-01	14.13	14.03	-9.68	13713	Upward Expansion	35	19
2025-07-25	14.52	14.03	-10.75	5589	Upward Expansion	56	46
2025-07-18	14.33	14.00	-12.59	3138	Upward Expansion	53	40
2025-07-11	14.52	13.98	-11.77	3889	Upward Expansion	57	45
2025-07-04	14.71	13.96	-9.23	918	Upward Expansion	65	45
2025-06-27	14.33	13.94	-12.86	6070	Deceleration	51	27
2025-06-20	14.23	13.93	-11.33	232	Deceleration	38	19
2025-06-13	14.33	13.93	-11.75	1346	Upward Expansion	43	19
2025-06-06	14.23	13.91	-15.62	3082	Upward Expansion	41	21
2025-05-30	13.94	13.89	-16.69	681	Upward Expansion	51	29
2025-05-23	14.04	13.89	-15.27	3603	Upward Expansion	56	44
2025-05-16	14.52	13.90	-13.31	589	Rotation Up	64	60
2025-05-09	14.52	13.91	-12.69	1144	Rotation Up	39	52
2025-05-02	14.13	13.91	-13.79	3482	Rotation Up	15	25
2025-04-25	14.13	13.92	-10.95	6720	Rotation Up	12	21
2025-04-18	14.62	13.94	-3.78	5372	Downward Expansion	27	19
2025-04-11	13.75	13.93	-6.04	4594	Downward Expansion	-47	23
2025-04-04	13.37	13.94	-10.13	2363	Downward Expansion	-59	35
2025-03-28	13.75	13.97	-15.40	2017	Downward Expansion	-47	24
2025-03-21	13.56	13.98	-18.48	486	Downward Expansion	-52	27
2025-03-14	13.56	14.00	-19.21	3953	Downward Expansion	-52	24
2025-03-07	13.65	14.03	-19.15	4581	Downward Expansion	-50	25
2025-02-28	13.75	14.04	-17.40	3371	Downward Expansion	-50	28
2025-02-21	13.85	14.06	-16.27	7246	Downward Expansion	-53	40
2025-02-14	13.46	14.06	-19.84	2301	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2025-02-07	13.56	14.08	-17.12	2150	Downward Expansion	-55	47
2025-01-31	13.65	14.10	-16.82	6138	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2025-01-24	13.65	14.11	-16.02	4338	Downward Expansion	-53	23
2025-01-17	13.85	14.12	-13.34	1150	Downward Expansion	-38	16
2025-01-10	14.13	14.13	-9.05	118	Downward Expansion	-32	15
2025-01-03	14.13	14.13	-8.06	1700	Downward Expansion	-46	23
2024-12-27	13.75	14.13	-11.32	2051	Downward Expansion	-56	32
2024-12-20	13.85	14.15	-10.73	4619	Downward Expansion	-53	27
2024-12-13	13.94	14.18	-12.80	9013	Downward Expansion	-49	24
2024-12-06	13.85	14.19	-13.76	39396	Rotation Down	-56	33
2024-11-29	14.13	14.20	-9.03	8154	Rotation Down	-24	31
2024-11-22	14.13	14.20	-8.02	26498	Rotation Down	-25	30
2024-11-15	13.74	14.20	-10.54	15126	Upward Expansion	-25	30
2024-11-08	13.74	14.21	-11.09	19561	Upward Expansion	-14	17
2024-11-01	13.92	14.22	-10.64	22206	Upward Expansion	19	10
2024-10-25	14.48	14.25	-8.67	2057	Upward Expansion	56	50
2024-10-18	14.66	14.24	-9.00	1319	Upward Expansion	63	59
2024-10-11	14.57	14.22	-8.81	427	Upward Expansion	57	54
2024-10-04	14.57	14.21	-8.18	2456	Balance	56	48
2024-09-27	14.57	14.21	-10.31	2195	Balance	27	26
2024-09-20	14.29	14.20	-8.85	519	Balance	-12	5
2024-09-13	14.20	14.20	-9.71	1341	Downward Expansion	-26	12
2024-09-06	14.11	14.21	-8.71	1913	Downward Expansion	-30	12
2024-08-30	14.11	14.23	-11.91	788	Downward Expansion	-29	13
2024-08-23	14.01	14.25	-11.60	1553	Downward Expansion	-31	14
2024-08-16	14.48	14.27	-7.51	2028	Downward Expansion	-17	9
2024-08-09	14.20	14.28	-6.50	2021	Downward Expansion	-30	13
2024-08-02	14.11	14.30	-7.03	1578	Downward Expansion	-44	20
2024-07-26	13.92	14.32	-12.24	4704	Downward Expansion	-51	24
2024-07-19	14.20	14.36	-9.56	1650	Downward Expansion	-45	24
2024-07-12	14.01	14.38	-13.70	1387	Downward Expansion	-50	37
2024-07-05	14.11	14.41	-12.15	3601	Downward Expansion	-47	33
2024-06-28	13.92	14.44	-12.56	3694	Downward Expansion	-51	34
2024-06-21	13.92	14.47	-12.49	1073	Downward Expansion	-51	24
2024-06-14	14.29	14.51	-9.68	4683	Downward Expansion	-28	13
2024-06-07	14.20	14.55	-13.16	1394	Downward Expansion	-31	15
2024-05-31	14.38	14.57	-12.03	3293	Downward Expansion	-28	14
2024-05-24	14.57	14.59	-12.10	2148	Downward Expansion	-25	12
2024-05-17	14.29	14.60	-14.04	283	Downward Expansion	-49	26
2024-05-10	14.11	14.62	-15.68	3223	Downward Expansion	-51	33
2024-05-03	14.20	14.67	-11.78	2191	Downward Expansion	-51	33
2024-04-26	14.11	14.70	-13.30	3863	Downward Expansion	-54	29
2024-04-19	14.01	14.70	-12.00	826	Downward Expansion	-60	33
2024-04-12	14.20	14.73	-11.96	1909	Downward Expansion	-54	29
2024-04-05	14.66	14.75	-10.45	1549	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2024-03-29	14.11	14.73	-15.44	728	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2024-03-22	14.20	14.77	-13.75	2450	Downward Expansion	-58	48
2024-03-15	14.20	14.78	-12.67	820	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2024-03-08	14.48	14.78	-10.59	731	Downward Expansion	-52	39
2024-03-01	14.29	14.79	-11.49	3047	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2024-02-23	14.38	14.80	-9.49	1680	Balance	-30	31
2024-02-16	14.66	14.81	-6.30	5427	Balance	-23	23
2024-02-09	14.48	14.80	-6.53	1239	Balance	-22	26
2024-02-02	14.66	14.80	-5.39	808	Balance	-13	18
2024-01-26	14.75	14.82	-5.22	4922	Balance	-11	11
2024-01-19	14.75	14.81	-2.98	4325	Balance	9	7
2024-01-12	14.75	14.81	-3.99	1896	Balance	9	7
2024-01-05	14.84	14.81	-2.87	1255	Balance	24	11
2023-12-29	15.12	14.80	-2.12	1918	Upward Expansion	34	14
2023-12-22	14.75	14.79	-4.44	8809	Upward Expansion	24	12
2023-12-15	14.94	14.77	-3.74	2606	Upward Expansion	33	14
2023-12-08	14.94	14.76	-3.97	5187	Upward Expansion	37	19
2023-12-01	14.94	14.74	-2.01	5907	Upward Expansion	47	23
2023-11-24	15.12	14.71	1.38	4787	Upward Expansion	49	27
2023-11-17	15.31	14.67	3.29	4078	Upward Expansion	56	28
2023-11-10	14.85	14.63	4.74	1300	Upward Expansion	46	23
2023-11-03	15.12	14.58	6.90	2221	Upward Expansion	51	43
2023-10-27	14.85	14.53	8.43	2042	Upward Expansion	49	43
2023-10-20	14.94	14.50	8.16	3222	Upward Expansion	50	41
2023-10-13	15.48	14.44	8.95	13973	Balance	64	46

Price vs TrendAbove+9.1%

Trend directionRising+1.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+8.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+12.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+5.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+15.1%

Price momentumPositive+10.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led4.69×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

72 / ±100

+6.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

53 /100

-31.3 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SWA Directional State ↗ SWA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance18

Rotation Up59

Upward Expansion79

Deceleration70

Rotation Down19

Downward Expansion8

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 25%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 44%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-04	2026-10-02	Developing	+3.7%
Rotation Up	2026-08-14	2026-08-28	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-08-07	Established	+2.1%
Deceleration	2025-12-19	2026-03-13	Established	-2.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-24	2025-12-12	Developing	-0.7%
Deceleration	2025-08-08	2025-10-17	Developing	+5.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-08-01	Developing	-3.9%
Deceleration	2025-06-20	2025-06-27	New	+0.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-06-13	New	+2.1%
Rotation Up	2025-04-25	2025-05-16	New	+2.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-04-18	Established	+4.8%
Rotation Down	2024-11-22	2024-12-06	New	-2.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-11	2024-11-15	Developing	-5.7%
Balance	2024-09-20	2024-10-04	New	+1.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing43

Stage 2 · Advancing93

Stage 3 · Distribution57

Stage 4 · Declining7

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 84/100
Current Relative Strength: 5.03
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +10.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +1.8%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 60th percentile5 in cohort

Test SWA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.07×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume4.69×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SWA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 15.20rising

Slow Activity EUR 14.42rising

Trend Reference EUR 14.21+9.1% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 14.31+8.3% close margin

Structural low EUR 13.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +3.6%

Annualized volatility +14.1%

From structural high -2.3%

From structural low +14.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	22	-0.3%-9.5% to +6.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.7%	+63.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-1.6%-4.5% to +5.7%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-0.8%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-4.9%-15.5% to +8.3%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-2.7%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-2.7%-10.7% to +0.3%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-19.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SWA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map