Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

EDSA Stage Analysis

Edesa Biotech Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 3.51Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -75−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 81/100directional strength

Maturity 38/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -8.0%USD 3.82 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	3.51	6.84	-34.56	191365	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2026-10-02	3.86	6.92	-27.79	208445	Downward Expansion	-72	82
2026-09-25	4.01	7.01	-24.29	139945	Downward Expansion	-72	81
2026-09-18	4.14	6.95	-18.99	249876	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2026-09-11	4.23	6.83	-16.10	131199	Downward Expansion	-72	77
2026-09-04	4.73	6.73	-6.26	208346	Downward Expansion	-39	63
2026-08-28	4.62	6.61	-7.56	600816	Rotation Down	-41	62
2026-08-21	4.43	6.49	-10.41	840487	Rotation Down	-44	61
2026-08-14	5.35	6.39	6.07	178898	Rotation Down	-26	51
2026-08-07	5.27	6.26	6.67	183291	Rotation Down	-26	48
2026-07-31	5.11	6.14	9.81	441358	Deceleration	-27	41
2026-07-24	5.25	6.02	14.59	349611	Deceleration	-3	11
2026-07-17	6.60	5.89	43.18	240309	Deceleration	6	7
2026-07-10	7.01	5.72	47.98	272411	Deceleration	9	7
2026-07-03	7.50	5.54	64.03	382708	Deceleration	12	13
2026-06-26	8.19	5.35	84.40	577783	Deceleration	19	22
2026-06-19	7.35	5.14	61.93	863140	Deceleration	18	27
2026-06-12	5.80	4.95	33.79	1440070	Deceleration	17	25
2026-06-05	5.46	4.81	30.69	1660826	Upward Expansion	27	20
2026-05-29	7.22	4.69	67.36	1304675	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-05-22	10.46	4.51	154.50	2498611	Upward Expansion	64	72
2026-05-15	13.05	4.25	233.37	1300938	Upward Expansion	65	83
2026-05-08	16.30	3.90	337.12	2019036	Upward Expansion	86	90
2026-05-01	17.59	3.44	434.33	17036244	Upward Expansion	91	70
2026-04-24	7.26	2.93	144.34	1184948	Upward Expansion	70	52
2026-04-17	5.93	2.78	109.31	1318038	Upward Expansion	59	49
2026-04-10	5.52	2.66	110.62	909873	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-04-03	6.14	2.56	149.25	1418384	Upward Expansion	66	81
2026-03-27	5.82	2.44	151.41	3119479	Upward Expansion	65	87
2026-03-20	7.35	2.32	214.59	14712152	Upward Expansion	88	75
2026-03-13	5.96	2.15	159.28	10333572	Rotation Up	87	74
2026-03-06	6.52	2.03	187.99	71400789	Rotation Up	50	53
2026-02-27	2.20	1.88	-0.95	153796826	Downward Expansion	-20	23
2026-02-20	0.80	1.88	-64.20	6229072	Downward Expansion	-88	94
2026-02-13	1.02	1.93	-54.63	463737	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2026-02-06	1.12	1.98	-51.64	963329	Downward Expansion	-84	90
2026-01-30	1.17	2.01	-50.93	703626	Downward Expansion	-87	90
2026-01-23	1.45	2.04	-39.81	143393	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2026-01-16	1.46	2.06	-39.82	125775	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2026-01-09	1.50	2.08	-38.98	122029	Downward Expansion	-65	68
2026-01-02	1.50	2.09	-37.98	371374	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2025-12-26	1.44	2.10	-41.83	192322	Downward Expansion	-71	55
2025-12-19	1.48	2.12	-39.84	214389	Downward Expansion	-74	58
2025-12-12	1.74	2.14	-29.20	175339	Downward Expansion	-61	59
2025-12-05	1.76	2.15	-30.02	165400	Rotation Down	-63	71
2025-11-28	1.75	2.16	-29.91	87930	Rotation Down	-35	65
2025-11-21	1.70	2.18	-29.42	97031	Rotation Down	-33	59
2025-11-14	1.74	2.20	-30.06	185129	Rotation Down	-33	50
2025-11-07	1.71	2.22	-32.00	692766	Upward Expansion	-33	30
2025-10-31	1.86	2.24	-28.95	17141401	Upward Expansion	6	8
2025-10-24	2.74	2.25	4.93	177163	Upward Expansion	69	40
2025-10-17	2.36	2.24	-8.77	118256	Upward Expansion	51	31
2025-10-10	2.49	2.25	-3.18	537578	Upward Expansion	54	35
2025-10-03	2.56	2.24	-4.41	1894446	Upward Expansion	63	47
2025-09-26	2.49	2.24	-7.71	173346	Upward Expansion	62	58
2025-09-19	2.47	2.23	-10.64	52872	Rotation Up	61	55
2025-09-12	2.40	2.23	-13.19	25555	Rotation Up	28	43
2025-09-05	2.53	2.23	-8.73	56873	Balance	41	44
2025-08-29	2.32	2.21	-17.26	98383	Balance	16	16
2025-08-22	2.40	2.20	-16.42	147198	Balance	24	16
2025-08-15	2.24	2.19	-24.37	82973	Balance	11	13
2025-08-08	2.12	2.18	-29.35	94072	Balance	10	18
2025-08-01	2.14	2.17	-27.91	110964	Balance	13	21
2025-07-25	2.38	2.16	-23.63	149283	Balance	34	31
2025-07-18	2.40	2.14	-24.29	405034	Balance	26	23
2025-07-11	2.09	2.12	-34.52	73907	Balance	-8	10
2025-07-04	2.08	2.11	-36.11	41745	Rotation Down	-13	14
2025-06-27	2.05	2.10	-37.12	68609	Rotation Down	-28	28
2025-06-20	1.96	2.11	-38.43	62749	Rotation Down	-33	50
2025-06-13	1.92	2.12	-40.73	72333	Rotation Down	-27	56
2025-06-06	1.83	2.13	-44.81	114454	Rotation Down	-35	60
2025-05-30	1.96	2.15	-40.84	397429	Rotation Down	-25	51
2025-05-23	1.96	2.19	-40.75	61129	Balance	-24	41
2025-05-16	2.03	2.24	-41.08	99093	Balance	-26	26
2025-05-09	2.04	2.30	-37.70	119125	Balance	-27	14
2025-05-02	2.38	2.37	-28.78	28563	Balance	-10	7
2025-04-25	2.36	2.43	-28.25	47126	Balance	-12	9
2025-04-18	2.26	2.50	-27.94	30469	Balance	-21	10
2025-04-11	2.25	2.57	-30.85	36215	Balance	-19	10
2025-04-04	2.31	2.64	-24.87	60922	Balance	-8	10
2025-03-28	2.50	2.71	-27.71	66661	Balance	-4	10
2025-03-21	2.50	2.78	-30.16	166618	Balance	-5	8
2025-03-14	2.39	2.84	-33.82	155503	Balance	-11	11
2025-03-07	2.33	2.91	-37.90	355447	Balance	-13	17
2025-02-28	2.19	2.99	-44.30	233994	Downward Expansion	-16	15
2025-02-21	2.43	3.09	-41.26	681639	Downward Expansion	-29	19
2025-02-14	2.69	3.19	-37.48	116144624	Downward Expansion	-29	20
2025-02-07	1.91	3.26	-55.09	77958	Downward Expansion	-48	45
2025-01-31	1.90	3.33	-55.97	116725	Downward Expansion	-50	47
2025-01-24	2.23	3.41	-49.99	329253	Downward Expansion	-53	51
2025-01-17	1.70	3.48	-61.89	54940	Downward Expansion	-70	64
2025-01-10	1.78	3.57	-59.72	34804	Downward Expansion	-69	65
2025-01-03	1.88	3.66	-58.99	119103	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2024-12-27	1.85	3.75	-60.61	94479	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2024-12-20	1.73	3.83	-63.43	94577	Downward Expansion	-76	70
2024-12-13	1.94	3.92	-60.74	107819	Downward Expansion	-72	82
2024-12-06	1.77	4.01	-64.51	319690	Downward Expansion	-83	93
2024-11-29	2.44	4.10	-50.21	89580	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2024-11-22	2.17	4.18	-55.74	72277	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2024-11-15	2.10	4.25	-56.72	89160	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2024-11-08	2.42	4.33	-52.18	315940	Downward Expansion	-91	90
2024-11-01	3.20	4.40	-33.62	514678	Downward Expansion	-81	78
2024-10-25	3.40	4.45	-31.01	85471	Downward Expansion	-78	69
2024-10-18	4.06	4.47	-17.83	54335	Balance	-59	47
2024-10-11	4.05	4.48	-18.14	107926	Balance	-60	38
2024-10-04	4.26	4.49	-13.22	87745	Balance	-26	18
2024-09-27	4.29	4.50	-13.02	29495	Balance	-17	18
2024-09-20	4.49	4.52	-8.65	43962	Balance	-12	13
2024-09-13	4.37	4.54	-11.03	16644	Balance	-6	13
2024-09-06	4.37	4.57	-7.10	29925	Balance	-14	18
2024-08-30	4.50	4.59	-10.98	15195	Balance	-6	10
2024-08-23	4.45	4.59	-13.62	21243	Balance	-1	2
2024-08-16	4.38	4.59	-15.26	32521	Balance	12	30
2024-08-09	4.84	4.59	-2.61	117851	Balance	53	54
2024-08-02	5.04	4.59	0.67	26567	Balance	28	44
2024-07-26	5.42	4.57	3.96	32888	Balance	29	33
2024-07-19	4.75	4.54	-11.67	79755	Balance	-22	11
2024-07-12	4.26	4.55	-24.61	20381	Balance	-51	37
2024-07-05	4.30	4.58	-25.04	10853	Balance	-50	33
2024-06-28	4.28	4.57	-23.63	71416	Balance	-50	26
2024-06-21	4.38	4.55	-22.72	33702	Balance	-45	24
2024-06-14	4.45	4.51	-22.29	33507	Balance	-13	10
2024-06-07	4.59	4.46	-17.93	85461	Balance	10	6
2024-05-31	4.33	4.40	-21.47	76334	Balance	1	3
2024-05-24	4.38	4.37	-22.81	52412	Balance	21	9
2024-05-17	4.55	4.33	-19.81	62465	Balance	28	12
2024-05-10	4.61	4.29	-18.07	23757	Balance	30	12
2024-05-03	4.63	4.27	-17.51	13516	Balance	27	11
2024-04-26	4.42	4.26	-21.93	12909	Balance	21	9
2024-04-19	4.45	4.26	-19.97	18642	Balance	12	7
2024-04-12	4.48	4.31	-25.20	27590	Balance	12	10
2024-04-05	4.68	4.37	-23.73	46222	Balance	14	13
2024-03-29	4.19	4.42	-33.12	50347	Balance	-13	16
2024-03-22	4.28	4.47	-33.04	45369	Balance	-7	11
2024-03-15	4.39	4.54	-30.62	32891	Balance	4	6
2024-03-08	4.53	4.59	-30.45	72120	Balance	21	17
2024-03-01	4.81	4.65	-29.07	70160	Balance	25	27
2024-02-23	4.99	4.69	-27.08	54669	Balance	27	30
2024-02-16	5.37	4.71	-22.52	187725	Balance	28	28
2024-02-09	4.83	4.73	-33.03	99082	Balance	-3	7
2024-02-02	4.54	4.76	-37.53	52755	Balance	-20	12
2024-01-26	4.64	4.80	-37.05	62022	Balance	-16	11
2024-01-19	4.36	4.84	-42.03	25827	Balance	-10	12
2024-01-12	4.66	4.89	-38.06	60215	Balance	-6	17
2024-01-05	4.45	4.93	-42.08	59844	Balance	-8	18
2023-12-29	4.57	5.00	-45.38	107318	Balance	-8	19
2023-12-22	5.04	5.05	-42.07	56799	Downward Expansion	-14	18
2023-12-15	5.19	5.10	-42.04	698018	Downward Expansion	-21	16
2023-12-08	4.17	5.13	-52.35	196374	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2023-12-01	3.45	5.20	-60.73	62184	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2023-11-24	3.25	5.33	-63.43	136838	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2023-11-17	3.01	5.49	-66.21	94488	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2023-11-10	2.70	5.64	-69.40	167099	Downward Expansion	-75	77
2023-11-03	3.54	5.79	-59.24	92822	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2023-10-27	3.11	5.90	-62.29	152844	Downward Expansion	-75	78
2023-10-20	3.44	6.00	-59.91	324890	Downward Expansion	-74	77

Price vs TrendBelow-48.6%

Trend directionRising+11.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-8.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-88.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-34.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-82.5%

Price momentumNegative-36.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.42×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-75 / ±100

-3.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

81 /100

+3.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

EDSA Directional State ↗ EDSA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance7

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion19

Deceleration39

Rotation Down66

Downward Expansion97

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 41%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 12%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-04	2026-10-09	Developing	-25.8%
Rotation Down	2026-08-07	2026-08-28	New	-12.3%
Deceleration	2026-06-12	2026-07-31	Developing	-11.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-06-05	Developing	-25.7%
Rotation Up	2026-03-06	2026-03-13	New	-8.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-12	2026-02-27	Developing	+26.4%
Rotation Down	2025-11-14	2025-12-05	New	+0.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-26	2025-11-07	Developing	-31.3%
Rotation Up	2025-09-12	2025-09-19	New	+2.9%
Balance	2025-07-11	2025-09-05	Developing	+21.1%
Rotation Down	2025-05-30	2025-07-04	Developing	+6.1%
Balance	2025-03-07	2025-05-23	Developing	-15.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-25	2025-02-28	Established	-35.6%
Balance	2023-12-29	2024-10-18	Extended	-11.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing43

Stage 2 · Advancing19

Stage 3 · Distribution27

Stage 4 · Declining81

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: -34.56
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -36.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -59.4%
Healthcare regime cohort: 100th percentile286 in cohort

Test EDSA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.37×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.42×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore EDSA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 3.84falling

Slow Activity USD 5.86falling

Trend Reference USD 6.84-48.6% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 3.82-8.0% close margin

Structural low USD 3.47shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +26.8%

Annualized volatility +164.0%

From structural high -82.7%

From structural low +387.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	31	-5.9%-36.2% to +482.1%	+32.3%	+67.7%	-7.6%	+80.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	+5.8%-54.8% to +242.5%	+54.5%	+45.5%	+1.7%	+54.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-30.1%-60.3% to +233.3%	+28.6%	+71.4%	-22.6%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-37.8%-63.9% to -1.9%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-47.8%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

EDSA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map