Weekly structural research · BUE · Healthcare

LLY Stage Analysis

Eli Lilly and Company

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close ARS 34,300.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^MERV

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 51−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 29/100directional strength

Maturity 65/100lifecycle context

Confidence 94/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +27.1%ARS 26,990.70 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	34,300.00	29,662.80	20.66	188846	Deceleration	51	29
2026-09-18	32,940.00	29,426.13	11.23	82480	Deceleration	37	22
2026-09-11	31,880.00	29,198.13	4.65	89020	Upward Expansion	44	33
2026-09-04	32,480.00	29,048.13	8.14	60680	Upward Expansion	58	46
2026-08-28	33,440.00	28,903.46	14.30	52611	Upward Expansion	62	53
2026-08-21	35,740.00	28,723.46	25.51	8466	Upward Expansion	81	61
2026-08-14	33,220.00	28,496.13	16.27	8287	Upward Expansion	62	52
2026-08-07	33,414.46	28,334.12	12.56	7708	Upward Expansion	65	56
2026-07-31	32,295.98	28,199.64	2.92	9966	Upward Expansion	64	59
2026-07-24	34,153.34	28,105.10	9.45	5933	Upward Expansion	72	85
2026-07-17	33,115.15	27,952.66	9.32	7279	Upward Expansion	66	86
2026-07-10	33,195.39	27,834.82	7.28	6493	Upward Expansion	70	86
2026-07-03	34,740.00	27,652.97	15.47	2303	Upward Expansion	89	94
2026-06-26	33,360.00	27,402.30	14.06	27698	Rotation Up	88	88
2026-06-19	29,600.00	27,263.63	-3.45	1857	Rotation Up	39	69
2026-06-12	30,340.00	27,227.63	-2.61	8941	Rotation Up	39	69
2026-06-05	30,560.00	27,130.96	6.82	23522	Rotation Up	45	65
2026-05-29	29,280.00	26,916.29	0.17	92460	Downward Expansion	37	39
2026-05-22	28,260.00	26,711.62	8.06	67867	Downward Expansion	-1	17
2026-05-15	26,620.00	26,541.29	7.80	94920	Downward Expansion	-28	17
2026-05-08	25,239.97	26,392.95	0.58	73238	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2026-05-01	25,019.97	26,298.95	-2.14	61630	Rotation Down	-55	36
2026-04-24	23,659.97	26,227.28	-7.77	60519	Rotation Down	-37	33
2026-04-17	24,149.97	26,073.95	-7.47	48495	Rotation Down	-35	40
2026-04-10	24,669.97	25,969.28	-8.68	31336	Rotation Down	-33	48
2026-04-03	25,439.97	25,811.94	-5.75	32601	Rotation Down	-24	47
2026-03-27	23,099.97	25,564.78	-8.10	17838	Rotation Down	-41	59
2026-03-20	23,709.97	25,385.61	-3.25	35147	Deceleration	-37	44
2026-03-13	25,839.97	25,158.61	8.92	17895	Deceleration	-1	16
2026-03-06	26,119.97	24,829.77	11.28	40268	Deceleration	3	14
2026-02-27	27,199.97	24,457.44	15.57	31351	Deceleration	15	15
2026-02-20	26,099.97	24,172.44	2.25	16099	Deceleration	23	18
2026-02-13	27,379.97	23,925.77	9.68	42218	Deceleration	37	23
2026-02-06	28,139.94	23,608.93	7.13	79813	Deceleration	42	29
2026-01-30	28,039.94	23,272.60	-0.32	63369	Upward Expansion	46	36
2026-01-23	28,919.93	22,919.60	6.80	37493	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-01-16	28,359.94	22,508.93	11.18	35446	Upward Expansion	62	53
2026-01-09	29,379.93	22,100.26	10.21	45838	Upward Expansion	65	61
2026-01-02	29,459.93	21,700.93	10.06	20020	Upward Expansion	68	64
2025-12-26	29,579.93	21,268.09	11.84	17703	Upward Expansion	71	63
2025-12-19	29,579.93	20,814.59	11.65	39967	Upward Expansion	75	66
2025-12-12	27,739.94	20,322.76	11.10	48237	Upward Expansion	65	70
2025-12-05	27,219.94	19,928.09	7.30	31236	Upward Expansion	67	83
2025-11-28	29,199.93	19,528.26	16.34	33252	Upward Expansion	84	92
2025-11-21	28,519.93	19,192.42	25.28	45618	Upward Expansion	88	91
2025-11-14	27,439.94	18,871.75	12.18	73869	Upward Expansion	90	84
2025-11-07	24,119.92	18,469.59	3.45	105714	Upward Expansion	76	67
2025-10-31	23,139.93	18,246.42	-5.42	103037	Upward Expansion	68	66
2025-10-24	23,149.93	18,061.75	36.34	46857	Upward Expansion	75	81
2025-10-17	22,169.93	17,927.58	36.70	45800	Upward Expansion	69	73
2025-10-10	22,419.93	17,831.91	43.01	42744	Upward Expansion	76	82
2025-10-03	22,869.93	17,684.58	55.89	105621	Upward Expansion	86	84
2025-09-26	19,059.94	17,554.74	31.44	81735	Rotation Up	61	70
2025-09-19	21,009.93	17,585.24	53.90	64365	Rotation Up	55	70
2025-09-12	19,949.93	17,519.90	40.31	64124	Balance	46	49
2025-09-05	18,024.94	17,459.90	11.68	45880	Balance	-12	6
2025-08-29	17,724.94	17,489.90	9.80	96153	Balance	-23	23
2025-08-22	16,899.94	17,474.06	-2.26	182314	Balance	-34	26
2025-08-15	15,974.95	17,457.39	-12.24	168456	Balance	-41	22
2025-08-08	14,949.93	17,442.39	-22.88	316416	Rotation Up	-43	20
2025-08-01	18,649.90	17,508.22	-4.30	49626	Rotation Up	27	46
2025-07-25	18,699.90	17,439.05	-1.60	35198	Balance	28	39
2025-07-18	17,874.91	17,367.39	-1.25	48813	Balance	16	17
2025-07-11	18,049.91	17,302.39	2.09	41122	Balance	-12	11
2025-07-04	17,449.91	17,214.05	-5.74	18394	Balance	-23	15
2025-06-27	16,599.91	17,159.05	-9.78	37125	Balance	-33	16
2025-06-20	16,099.92	17,135.71	-14.47	20470	Balance	-14	11
2025-06-13	17,399.91	17,091.55	-11.35	56276	Rotation Down	-20	18
2025-06-06	16,474.91	17,020.71	-17.96	74336	Rotation Down	-27	42
2025-05-30	15,974.92	17,053.21	-25.56	39794	Rotation Down	-19	47
2025-05-23	14,824.93	17,093.21	-33.44	30552	Balance	-31	46
2025-05-16	15,899.92	17,217.37	-28.55	53014	Balance	-20	18
2025-05-09	15,224.90	17,342.37	-25.50	29139	Balance	-30	21
2025-05-02	19,124.87	17,474.86	-6.42	10381	Balance	39	19
2025-04-25	18,899.87	17,484.03	-12.87	33551	Balance	33	23
2025-04-18	15,374.90	17,498.19	-27.96	11070	Balance	-20	22
2025-04-11	17,424.88	17,657.36	-21.62	40356	Rotation Up	28	14
2025-04-04	17,599.88	17,764.02	-16.12	14607	Rotation Up	9	10
2025-03-28	19,124.87	17,854.85	-19.81	19869	Rotation Up	30	25
2025-03-21	19,299.87	17,956.52	-21.56	19486	Rotation Up	36	32
2025-03-14	17,999.88	18,044.01	-24.41	18329	Rotation Up	22	34
2025-03-07	18,974.87	18,152.34	-18.62	26864	Rotation Up	25	53
2025-02-28	19,974.86	18,210.67	-13.09	39365	Rotation Up	40	61
2025-02-21	19,049.87	18,179.00	-23.42	24172	Balance	29	40
2025-02-14	18,149.88	18,175.67	-28.50	31165	Balance	1	18
2025-02-07	18,924.84	18,252.33	-27.15	44876	Downward Expansion	6	11
2025-01-31	17,249.86	18,429.83	-38.18	34442	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2025-01-24	16,399.86	18,615.43	-41.77	22599	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2025-01-17	15,524.87	18,801.41	-44.14	42544	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2025-01-10	16,924.86	18,985.34	-52.26	28091	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2025-01-03	16,574.86	19,085.02	-57.47	9695	Downward Expansion	-44	36
2024-12-27	16,549.86	19,196.96	-59.29	15192	Downward Expansion	-49	44
2024-12-20	15,924.87	19,255.31	-62.29	39001	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2024-12-13	15,399.87	19,319.06	-64.61	29908	Downward Expansion	-67	81
2024-12-06	15,799.87	19,312.13	-63.62	33721	Downward Expansion	-66	86
2024-11-29	15,899.87	19,274.86	-66.59	52551	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2024-11-22	14,774.88	19,236.60	-70.15	43819	Rotation Down	-85	91
2024-11-15	15,274.88	19,218.40	-68.79	42328	Rotation Down	-60	76
2024-11-08	17,449.83	19,170.19	-65.14	76117	Rotation Down	-45	61
2024-11-01	17,174.83	19,058.07	-66.43	55090	Deceleration	-41	52
2024-10-25	18,549.82	18,975.23	-65.76	16237	Deceleration	-9	31
2024-10-18	19,649.82	18,859.07	-64.68	19498	Balance	4	21
2024-10-11	19,199.82	18,708.58	-66.42	26603	Balance	2	14
2024-10-04	19,399.82	18,549.38	-67.22	16135	Balance	7	13
2024-09-27	19,324.82	18,377.72	-68.87	15385	Balance	13	13
2024-09-20	20,149.80	18,235.78	-70.62	13042	Upward Expansion	27	17
2024-09-13	20,624.80	18,076.77	-71.07	13283	Upward Expansion	50	32
2024-09-06	20,324.80	17,879.27	-71.07	20426	Upward Expansion	53	36
2024-08-30	22,174.79	17,748.90	-69.66	14776	Deceleration	61	45
2024-08-23	21,924.79	17,520.30	-68.93	24531	Deceleration	48	27
2024-08-16	21,249.79	17,262.25	-71.54	22892	Deceleration	37	28
2024-08-09	20,724.78	19,988.89	-71.97	36878	Deceleration	5	20
2024-08-02	19,024.80	22,448.03	-72.36	18553	Deceleration	-7	14
2024-07-26	18,949.80	24,753.91	-75.00	25939	Rotation Up	8	18
2024-07-19	20,449.78	26,486.45	-74.06	25756	Rotation Up	6	32
2024-07-12	24,249.74	28,051.08	-72.42	23300	Rotation Up	27	49
2024-07-05	22,817.76	29,625.05	-73.22	30646	Downward Expansion	20	44
2024-06-28	21,979.27	31,304.43	-74.44	20807	Downward Expansion	16	44
2024-06-21	21,042.78	32,746.76	-75.49	5388	Downward Expansion	-12	39
2024-06-14	19,915.28	34,312.00	-77.34	16983	Downward Expansion	-26	36
2024-06-07	19,933.28	35,825.59	-76.83	18207	Downward Expansion	-38	46
2024-05-31	18,300.31	37,341.17	-80.82	13927	Downward Expansion	-43	57
2024-05-24	17,837.31	38,813.57	-80.13	21709	Downward Expansion	-54	63
2024-05-17	15,191.84	40,238.62	-82.90	7422	Downward Expansion	-56	84
2024-05-10	14,681.82	42,176.28	-83.07	10360	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2024-05-03	14,752.32	44,103.72	-83.86	15297	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2024-04-26	14,228.82	46,281.61	-82.72	4126	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2024-04-19	13,828.33	47,665.11	-82.27	10294	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2024-04-12	14,086.33	48,943.60	-83.05	9937	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2024-04-05	14,689.82	50,251.16	-82.18	5384	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2024-03-29	15,064.82	51,579.79	-82.02	2898	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2024-03-22	15,135.31	52,848.25	-82.42	9264	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2024-03-15	14,423.82	54,120.40	-81.09	8257	Downward Expansion	-68	75
2024-03-08	14,249.82	55,310.89	-80.40	11548	Downward Expansion	-69	86
2024-03-01	15,066.82	56,167.34	-80.57	13712	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2024-02-23	15,379.31	56,757.11	-81.30	37493	Rotation Down	-66	88
2024-02-16	14,699.82	57,294.21	-81.67	13750	Rotation Down	-47	73
2024-02-09	16,413.77	57,835.06	-80.91	27146	Rotation Down	-53	64
2024-02-02	15,316.79	58,301.67	-84.91	19761	Rotation Down	-42	41
2024-01-26	14,183.31	58,766.09	-85.52	3366	Rotation Down	5	8
2024-01-19	103,049.09	59,290.63	10.83	3068	Upward Expansion	88	92
2024-01-12	94,498.71	56,835.52	16.29	1242	Upward Expansion	86	81
2024-01-05	88,201.30	54,636.96	6.94	3909	Upward Expansion	81	57
2023-12-29	70,926.03	52,618.67	-2.10	845	Upward Expansion	56	37
2023-12-22	67,388.59	51,153.32	-8.81	692	Upward Expansion	53	37
2023-12-15	71,469.03	49,781.56	-1.15	4199	Upward Expansion	61	43
2023-12-08	73,199.01	48,303.61	-0.82	970	Deceleration	67	45
2023-12-01	65,249.11	46,714.56	-4.64	944	Deceleration	44	34
2023-11-24	68,000.09	45,357.37	-6.09	809	Deceleration	51	39
2023-11-17	65,323.11	43,842.57	27.77	908	Upward Expansion	46	36
2023-11-10	65,400.47	42,387.25	25.15	1218	Upward Expansion	52	45
2023-11-03	62,472.52	40,829.36	24.11	1238	Upward Expansion	63	57
2023-10-27	60,588.54	39,363.31	17.26	764	Upward Expansion	66	67
2023-10-20	73,321.84	37,915.40	16.15	1706	Upward Expansion	75	71
2023-10-13	72,504.87	36,012.99	20.86	5256	Upward Expansion	83	73
2023-10-06	80,089.23	34,146.28	61.50	1088	Upward Expansion	96	78

Price vs TrendAbove+15.6%

Trend directionRising+6.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+27.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+7.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+20.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+6.6%

Price momentumPositive+48.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.26×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

51 / ±100

-10.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

29 /100

-24.1 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

LLY Directional State ↗ LLY Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance30

Rotation Up32

Upward Expansion59

Deceleration88

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion20

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 29%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 11%Downward Expansion 22%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	+4.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-09-11	Developing	-8.2%
Rotation Up	2026-06-05	2026-06-26	New	+9.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-05-29	New	+16.0%
Rotation Down	2026-03-27	2026-05-01	Developing	+8.3%
Deceleration	2026-02-06	2026-03-20	Developing	-15.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-03	2026-01-30	Established	+22.6%
Rotation Up	2025-09-19	2025-09-26	New	-9.3%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-09-12	Developing	+24.9%
Rotation Up	2025-08-01	2025-08-08	New	-19.8%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-07-25	Developing	+16.1%
Rotation Down	2025-05-30	2025-06-13	New	+8.9%
Balance	2025-04-18	2025-05-23	Developing	-3.6%
Rotation Up	2025-02-28	2025-04-11	Developing	-12.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution54

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MERV

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 89/100
Current Relative Strength: 20.66
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +48.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +44.9%
Healthcare regime cohort: 50th percentile2 in cohort

Test LLY trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume4.46×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.26×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore LLY Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity ARS 33,153.33falling

Slow Activity ARS 31,650.28rising

Trend Reference ARS 29,662.80+15.6% close margin

Current Fair Value ARS 26,990.70+27.1% close margin

Structural low ARS 22,669.97shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.3%

Annualized volatility +33.3%

From structural high -5.1%

From structural low +82.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MERV	Regime survived	Read
Near term	10	+3.8%-20.4% to +16.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.8%	+30.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+0.4%-77.4% to +81.3%	+57.1%	+57.1%	-3.3%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+24.3%-73.8% to +257.2%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-22.1%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+118.2%-78.3% to +330.1%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+25.6%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

LLY Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map