Weekly structural research · IST · Basic Materials

GOLTS Stage Analysis

Göltas Göller Bölgesi Cimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TRY 258.50Tenure DevelopingBenchmark XU100.IS
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -87−100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 85/100directional strength
Maturity 39/100lifecycle context
Confidence 81/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -28.3%TRY 360.56 · weakening
Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values · 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25258.50328.41-21.47545079Downward Expansion-8785
2026-09-18268.50331.46-21.38545318Downward Expansion-8764
2026-09-11299.25334.45-20.12524110Downward Expansion-5241
2026-09-04291.75337.12-20.11344081Downward Expansion-7654
2026-08-28306.25339.16-20.28674986Downward Expansion-6254
2026-08-21319.25340.88-16.74242506Downward Expansion-6778
2026-08-14293.50341.85-22.0944055Downward Expansion-7289
2026-08-07290.75343.54-21.2279950Downward Expansion-8090
2026-07-31287.25344.86-20.9071771Downward Expansion-9092
2026-07-24310.00345.90-18.2447907Downward Expansion-7478
2026-07-17314.25346.04-17.95138315Downward Expansion-7279
2026-07-10314.71346.23-20.3267913Rotation Down-7480
2026-07-03327.80346.36-18.13105497Rotation Down-3867
2026-06-26317.18345.90-20.5393689Rotation Down-5072
2026-06-19324.09345.72-21.8968719Rotation Down-3359
2026-06-12322.86345.28-18.40112906Deceleration-3752
2026-06-05332.00344.74-15.23110885Deceleration-2829
2026-05-29343.00344.58-12.8896079Deceleration1113
2026-05-22343.50344.06-14.36506162Deceleration1913
2026-05-15368.00343.44-12.57998106Upward Expansion3924
2026-05-08372.50341.61-16.28571322Upward Expansion5334
2026-05-01366.25340.34-14.97265575Upward Expansion5752
2026-04-24370.50338.72-14.66369564Upward Expansion5962
2026-04-17382.00337.50-14.00790951Upward Expansion6466
2026-04-10385.00335.98-11.12784709Upward Expansion6756
2026-04-03373.00333.35-7.12947880Deceleration6032
2026-03-27363.75331.63-8.461388721Deceleration4222
2026-03-20338.25330.85-17.86426846Deceleration2621
2026-03-13335.00331.18-19.771169299Deceleration3220
2026-03-06333.75331.33-19.00690547Upward Expansion4232
2026-02-27350.00331.70-21.41653465Upward Expansion6250
2026-02-20358.00331.57-21.491256601Upward Expansion6675
2026-02-13379.50331.24-18.88929643Rotation Up9294
2026-02-06353.00329.68-21.58694830Rotation Up4371
2026-01-30357.75328.95-23.031144332Rotation Up5372
2026-01-23348.50328.22-20.86765554Rotation Up4060
2026-01-16344.00326.81-20.59827641Balance3438
2026-01-09330.50325.68-21.44813297Balance-1311
2026-01-02318.50325.28-20.36273983Downward Expansion-3517
2025-12-26314.00325.90-20.70405252Downward Expansion-4121
2025-12-19320.00326.62-20.15546870Downward Expansion-3923
2025-12-12318.50327.73-20.96544005Downward Expansion-5134
2025-12-05314.00329.44-20.67656970Downward Expansion-5350
2025-11-28311.83331.38-21.22503511Downward Expansion-5444
2025-11-21311.09333.60-22.45498212Downward Expansion-5635
2025-11-14306.41336.50-21.75709733Downward Expansion-6131
2025-11-07327.33339.75-19.78757602Downward Expansion-3621
2025-10-31327.33341.69-20.88451061Downward Expansion-4624
2025-10-24324.87343.88-21.94772324Downward Expansion-4829
2025-10-17313.06346.74-19.94761445Downward Expansion-6133
2025-10-10334.47349.32-18.961518481Downward Expansion-4623
2025-10-03317.73353.34-24.33934274Downward Expansion-6145
2025-09-26333.73356.54-23.051379011Downward Expansion-5140
2025-09-19336.69358.04-23.87958368Downward Expansion-5247
2025-09-12305.92359.43-25.24765228Downward Expansion-7558
2025-09-05321.43363.13-24.621147517Downward Expansion-5231
2025-08-29340.38366.28-24.571135413Downward Expansion-2113
2025-08-22348.25368.80-23.881221744Downward Expansion-2918
2025-08-15339.39371.51-22.85937915Downward Expansion-3123
2025-08-08344.81374.21-22.781290058Downward Expansion-3324
2025-08-01346.04376.83-21.27910404Downward Expansion-3824
2025-07-25348.25379.40-20.421512437Downward Expansion-4230
2025-07-18332.50381.90-22.42756175Downward Expansion-5147
2025-07-11331.27384.89-23.071127829Downward Expansion-6460
2025-07-04335.70389.18-21.99954030Downward Expansion-6781
2025-06-27306.41393.83-22.73609918Downward Expansion-7991
2025-06-20310.10399.63-20.62688944Downward Expansion-8292
2025-06-13318.47403.95-19.76512997Downward Expansion-8185
2025-06-06336.93407.10-16.83330947Downward Expansion-7478
2025-05-30335.70410.75-13.01473520Downward Expansion-7775
2025-05-23353.42413.44-11.82525487Downward Expansion-7067
2025-05-16369.66414.62-10.891041410Downward Expansion-6251
2025-05-09372.13414.24-7.88784659Downward Expansion-6245
2025-05-02378.52413.73-4.39622458Balance-6046
2025-04-25398.21413.50-2.53798624Balance-5038
2025-04-18403.87414.45-0.381477191Balance-4938
2025-04-11385.42415.95-6.12867972Balance-6047
2025-04-04393.05417.44-4.33513192Balance-4419
2025-03-28410.77418.10-2.831359276Balance-3118
2025-03-21390.34418.59-1.562045484Balance-5122
2025-03-14455.07419.46-4.232927968Rotation Down2215
2025-03-07413.72418.33-10.011486288Rotation Down-4953
2025-02-28378.77418.43-10.121036303Rotation Down-4658
2025-02-21378.52421.08-9.371274916Balance-3845
2025-02-14416.92424.62-2.651304635Balance-2316
2025-02-07415.93426.98-3.091136470Balance-2416
2025-01-31415.93430.77-3.091179350Balance-4222
2025-01-24429.47434.16-0.431380561Balance-2717
2025-01-17420.36436.56-0.811170466Balance-3021
2025-01-10423.32437.980.981634418Balance-3524
2025-01-03423.32437.28-0.141211216Balance-1211
2024-12-27423.32436.560.791774276Balance-38
2024-12-20422.09436.384.112046308Rotation Up1325
2024-12-13459.99436.999.603416107Rotation Up2241
2024-12-06475.00437.2814.392325445Rotation Up3042
2024-11-29480.42437.9121.573219189Downward Expansion3534
2024-11-22439.81438.2613.242040621Downward Expansion-1221
2024-11-15412.98441.018.602998579Downward Expansion-3022
2024-11-08446.45445.4720.392952218Downward Expansion-2617
2024-11-01416.43444.6816.762725027Downward Expansion-6057
2024-10-25388.86443.609.411914694Downward Expansion-6475
2024-10-18358.34444.832.421592162Downward Expansion-7581
2024-10-11356.62445.871.241350627Downward Expansion-7971
2024-10-04371.63445.153.122512622Balance-7444
2024-09-27426.78442.8210.651752721Balance-1514
2024-09-20448.79438.3715.583531212Rotation Down-2217
2024-09-13430.13433.4414.122854425Rotation Down-2729
2024-09-06412.90428.439.492087752Deceleration-2336
2024-08-30425.58423.7312.952413904Deceleration-1829
2024-08-23416.25418.3213.294637401Balance-423
2024-08-16421.28413.1913.663025623Balance919
2024-08-09416.73407.9812.563612854Upward Expansion1414
2024-08-02458.36402.3118.092402268Upward Expansion5438
2024-07-26484.67395.3321.232465112Upward Expansion6167
2024-07-19487.54387.0520.322785501Upward Expansion6170
2024-07-12529.65378.5933.233120182Upward Expansion7067
2024-07-05517.68369.4734.493450422Deceleration7047
2024-06-28501.42361.2234.474105405Deceleration6433
2024-06-21463.14354.0424.351392046Deceleration3924
2024-06-14402.14348.4912.261414456Deceleration2826
2024-06-07401.90344.8916.781658885Deceleration3324
2024-05-31417.93340.9119.421877834Deceleration4130
2024-05-24440.18335.7523.613162622Upward Expansion4841
2024-05-17468.88330.8433.392825135Upward Expansion6257
2024-05-10493.76324.1147.923270881Upward Expansion6565
2024-05-03490.89316.8048.434519200Upward Expansion6672
2024-04-26522.47310.2366.177271923Upward Expansion8279
2024-04-19546.87301.6681.109310251Upward Expansion9595
2024-04-12422.47291.3141.02433894Upward Expansion7991
2024-04-05384.20284.6232.433866593Upward Expansion6886
2024-03-29425.82279.5355.956311668Upward Expansion9597
2024-03-22389.46272.5945.044645563Upward Expansion9491
2024-03-15335.16267.1130.224699981Upward Expansion8580
2024-03-08301.66261.9013.903186264Upward Expansion6969
2024-03-01293.29258.4912.072498794Upward Expansion6464
2024-02-23300.95255.0212.153021305Deceleration7360
2024-02-16279.65250.715.802230886Deceleration4832
2024-02-09272.00246.595.381817882Deceleration4126
2024-02-02263.15242.706.802002782Deceleration2717
2024-01-26262.43238.9211.291396508Deceleration2413
2024-01-19265.06234.8118.051260431Deceleration1213
2024-01-12246.40230.4010.921233912Deceleration519
2024-01-05249.03226.6818.26784817Deceleration620
2023-12-29236.35222.9415.571060865Deceleration316
2023-12-22233.77219.3013.801360195Deceleration1917
2023-12-15255.97215.2018.411510292Upward Expansion4227
2023-12-08270.32210.4626.951804207Upward Expansion5642
2023-12-01285.87205.1433.211853151Upward Expansion6047
2023-11-24296.64199.0340.322253587Upward Expansion6651
2023-11-17294.25192.7942.472156470Upward Expansion6852
2023-11-10282.29186.9639.621953994Upward Expansion6551
2023-11-03263.15181.6432.441514464Upward Expansion6254
2023-10-27292.91176.9148.052897199Upward Expansion7567
2023-10-20266.98171.3239.451880873Upward Expansion6766
2023-10-13274.63166.8233.962308333Upward Expansion7368
2023-10-06293.58162.1538.462787849Upward Expansion9175
Price vs TrendBelow-21.3%
Trend directionFalling-5.1%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-28.3%
Fair Value directionMoving away-18.3%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-21.5%
Relative strength directionWeakening-0.9%
Price momentumNegative-28.9%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.41×
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-87 / ±100

-24.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

85 /100

+30.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance15
Rotation Up11
Upward Expansion18
Deceleration40
Rotation Down78
Downward Expansion91

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 35%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-07-172026-09-25Developing-17.7%
Rotation Down2026-06-192026-07-10New-2.9%
Deceleration2026-05-222026-06-12New-6.0%
Upward Expansion2026-04-102026-05-15Developing-4.4%
Deceleration2026-03-132026-04-03New+11.3%
Upward Expansion2026-02-202026-03-06New-6.8%
Rotation Up2026-01-232026-02-13New+8.9%
Balance2026-01-092026-01-16New+4.1%
Downward Expansion2025-05-092026-01-02Extended-14.4%
Balance2025-03-212025-05-02Developing-3.0%
Rotation Down2025-02-282025-03-14New+20.1%
Balance2024-12-272025-02-21Developing-10.6%
Rotation Up2024-12-062024-12-20New-11.1%
Downward Expansion2024-10-112024-11-29Developing+34.7%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 · Basing57
Stage 2 · Advancing0
Stage 3 · Distribution17
Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus XU100.IS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
98/100
Current Relative Strength
-21.47
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-28.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-30.5%
Basic Materials regime cohort
52th percentile42 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.01×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.41×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity TRY 276.93falling
Slow Activity TRY 312.84falling
Trend Reference TRY 328.41-21.3% close margin
Current Fair Value TRY 360.56-28.3% close margin
Structural low TRY 251.25shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.6%
Annualized volatility +28.2%
From structural high -36.3%
From structural low +2.9%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs XU100.IS Regime survived Read
Near term19+1.4%-10.7% to +25.2%+57.9%+42.1%-3.4%+78.9%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate7+7.6%-7.3% to +50.2%+57.1%+42.9%-5.4%+42.9%Usable descriptive sample
Extended5+8.1%-12.0% to +108.7%+80.0%+20.0%-24.1%+20.0%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle2+13.8%-6.2% to +33.7%+50.0%+50.0%-34.9%+50.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context