Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Defensive

TGTC Stage Analysis

Target Corporation

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 138.00Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 55−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 58/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 76/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +27.4%EUR 108.36 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	138.00	119.71	17.96	0	Upward Expansion	55	58
2026-10-02	138.80	118.49	16.27	0	Upward Expansion	69	63
2026-09-25	137.80	117.26	12.33	0	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-09-18	137.80	115.83	15.27	0	Upward Expansion	66	66
2026-09-11	134.60	114.46	11.73	19	Upward Expansion	68	87
2026-09-04	140.80	113.17	17.79	0	Upward Expansion	78	92
2026-08-28	141.20	111.64	19.90	0	Upward Expansion	87	95
2026-08-21	140.40	109.81	22.51	0	Upward Expansion	93	96
2026-08-14	134.00	108.10	15.66	0	Upward Expansion	88	85
2026-08-07	126.67	106.75	10.96	0	Upward Expansion	77	70
2026-07-31	123.89	105.50	11.91	0	Upward Expansion	74	61
2026-07-24	119.53	104.14	8.12	0	Upward Expansion	62	56
2026-07-17	123.30	102.77	13.10	0	Upward Expansion	80	69
2026-07-10	117.55	101.35	5.92	0	Upward Expansion	63	69
2026-07-03	114.80	100.11	2.07	0	Upward Expansion	65	80
2026-06-26	123.80	98.87	12.63	0	Upward Expansion	91	94
2026-06-19	116.60	97.31	4.24	0	Upward Expansion	80	79
2026-06-12	116.80	95.91	8.87	0	Upward Expansion	84	63
2026-06-05	106.80	94.56	2.45	0	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-05-29	108.60	93.49	3.02	0	Upward Expansion	64	49
2026-05-22	109.20	92.44	6.44	0	Upward Expansion	70	54
2026-05-15	105.20	91.41	4.74	0	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-05-08	105.20	90.38	4.20	0	Upward Expansion	66	66
2026-05-01	108.37	89.26	8.90	0	Upward Expansion	75	74
2026-04-24	108.76	88.09	9.97	0	Upward Expansion	79	75
2026-04-17	105.60	86.87	3.05	0	Upward Expansion	75	66
2026-04-10	103.42	85.77	3.22	0	Upward Expansion	70	62
2026-04-03	102.93	84.80	9.18	0	Upward Expansion	69	62
2026-03-27	103.62	83.91	13.49	0	Upward Expansion	76	65
2026-03-20	97.41	83.09	7.97	0	Upward Expansion	64	61
2026-03-13	101.25	82.60	10.49	0	Upward Expansion	76	77
2026-03-06	101.79	82.04	8.00	335	Upward Expansion	82	83
2026-02-27	94.96	81.51	-4.94	0	Upward Expansion	66	81
2026-02-20	96.68	81.06	-6.01	104	Upward Expansion	78	78
2026-02-13	96.01	80.68	-4.76	0	Upward Expansion	81	74
2026-02-06	94.91	80.27	-7.64	83	Upward Expansion	83	85
2026-01-30	86.15	79.94	-16.48	0	Upward Expansion	65	80
2026-01-23	89.34	79.84	-13.58	20	Rotation Up	70	85
2026-01-16	93.44	79.54	-10.24	0	Rotation Up	64	81
2026-01-09	89.01	79.04	-14.68	0	Rotation Up	60	70
2026-01-02	83.24	78.74	-20.92	0	Rotation Up	37	51
2025-12-26	78.40	78.64	-25.37	0	Rotation Up	15	30
2025-12-19	80.78	78.66	-24.26	113	Balance	26	28
2025-12-12	80.35	78.58	-23.96	300	Balance	4	12
2025-12-05	77.52	78.70	-27.48	24	Balance	-20	11
2025-11-28	77.03	78.79	-28.02	5	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2025-11-21	74.45	78.90	-28.36	130	Downward Expansion	-43	23
2025-11-14	76.36	79.05	-28.50	0	Downward Expansion	-34	24
2025-11-07	74.65	79.06	-29.99	0	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-10-31	77.31	79.03	-29.58	0	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2025-10-24	78.08	79.13	-27.95	0	Downward Expansion	-48	34
2025-10-17	74.29	79.60	-31.23	0	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2025-10-10	71.75	80.10	-35.90	11	Downward Expansion	-72	78
2025-10-03	73.15	80.69	-36.97	0	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2025-09-26	72.30	81.53	-37.32	130	Downward Expansion	-73	80
2025-09-19	72.48	82.81	-37.79	0	Downward Expansion	-76	78
2025-09-12	74.52	84.15	-37.25	100	Balance	-71	66
2025-09-05	76.21	85.47	-36.04	11	Balance	-56	37
2025-08-29	78.83	86.90	-34.98	0	Balance	-45	21
2025-08-22	82.82	88.43	-34.95	469	Balance	-14	8
2025-08-15	84.42	89.74	-35.37	0	Balance	-11	11
2025-08-08	85.95	90.90	-33.18	0	Balance	-5	10
2025-08-01	81.25	92.33	-33.72	0	Balance	-20	17
2025-07-25	85.45	93.73	-32.81	0	Downward Expansion	-17	22
2025-07-18	83.69	94.93	-33.59	119	Downward Expansion	-24	21
2025-07-11	84.86	96.05	-33.34	0	Downward Expansion	-40	32
2025-07-04	83.17	97.21	-33.90	0	Downward Expansion	-46	42
2025-06-27	80.34	98.29	-37.24	0	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2025-06-20	78.61	99.50	-38.08	0	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2025-06-13	79.86	100.58	-38.07	20	Downward Expansion	-51	54
2025-06-06	80.26	102.39	-39.68	0	Downward Expansion	-51	53
2025-05-30	79.10	104.06	-40.85	0	Downward Expansion	-53	53
2025-05-23	78.32	105.70	-41.49	254	Downward Expansion	-58	57
2025-05-16	83.86	107.41	-38.70	0	Downward Expansion	-53	57
2025-05-09	80.26	109.02	-40.23	0	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2025-05-02	80.47	110.79	-38.02	30	Downward Expansion	-67	75
2025-04-25	78.94	112.37	-38.97	0	Downward Expansion	-68	82
2025-04-18	76.62	114.06	-39.31	30	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2025-04-11	73.88	115.79	-39.09	310	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2025-04-04	80.23	117.53	-35.45	175	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2025-03-28	91.99	119.05	-34.05	205	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2025-03-21	89.52	120.23	-37.79	0	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2025-03-14	89.46	121.62	-39.07	44	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2025-03-07	98.08	122.60	-33.82	154	Downward Expansion	-91	92
2025-02-28	110.84	123.08	-23.45	0	Downward Expansion	-75	79
2025-02-21	112.83	123.31	-20.67	0	Balance	-72	67
2025-02-14	114.00	123.73	-20.96	0	Balance	-61	39
2025-02-07	118.99	124.14	-13.56	0	Balance	-49	23
2025-01-31	124.88	124.45	-9.21	0	Balance	-22	14
2025-01-24	122.11	124.37	-10.92	0	Balance	-28	17
2025-01-17	119.08	124.50	-11.76	149	Balance	-35	21
2025-01-10	128.92	124.69	-1.23	11	Balance	-14	13
2025-01-03	123.28	124.38	-5.48	0	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-12-27	121.46	124.40	-6.36	0	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2024-12-20	117.16	124.65	-8.66	0	Downward Expansion	-58	65
2024-12-13	119.73	124.83	-8.20	0	Downward Expansion	-58	64
2024-12-06	115.58	125.31	-9.87	0	Rotation Down	-57	64
2024-11-29	116.55	126.04	-8.06	0	Rotation Down	-38	43
2024-11-22	111.26	126.61	-12.09	72	Rotation Down	-32	24
2024-11-15	134.15	127.58	5.20	0	Balance	36	22
2024-11-08	130.21	127.87	2.55	1	Balance	22	16
2024-11-01	128.46	128.32	2.29	0	Balance	24	24
2024-10-25	129.36	128.85	1.81	0	Rotation Up	26	27
2024-10-18	132.32	129.47	3.19	0	Rotation Up	24	35
2024-10-11	133.21	129.81	4.61	0	Balance	27	32
2024-10-04	127.87	129.97	0.94	0	Balance	-8	14
2024-09-27	129.66	130.44	1.66	0	Balance	-1	12
2024-09-20	128.55	130.42	2.03	0	Balance	-6	14
2024-09-13	126.11	130.39	0.74	0	Balance	-22	23
2024-09-06	125.86	130.33	1.27	0	Downward Expansion	-28	22
2024-08-30	127.39	130.23	-1.45	0	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2024-08-23	131.17	130.01	2.66	93	Downward Expansion	-41	35
2024-08-16	118.85	129.57	-5.22	0	Downward Expansion	-59	68
2024-08-09	112.44	129.41	-8.77	0	Downward Expansion	-81	73
2024-08-02	117.74	129.55	-3.65	0	Balance	-71	40
2024-07-26	125.50	129.49	-1.35	0	Balance	-13	15
2024-07-19	126.27	129.18	-0.73	8	Rotation Down	-15	16
2024-07-12	128.30	128.78	-0.01	0	Rotation Down	-27	24
2024-07-05	122.68	128.39	-4.35	0	Rotation Down	-29	37
2024-06-28	125.83	128.06	0.74	0	Rotation Down	-26	51
2024-06-21	124.84	127.56	0.50	16	Rotation Down	-26	58
2024-06-14	119.60	127.00	-2.18	0	Deceleration	-42	55
2024-06-07	123.85	126.59	-2.16	8	Deceleration	-16	35
2024-05-31	128.85	125.41	0.99	0	Deceleration	1	22
2024-05-24	122.59	124.26	-5.39	47	Deceleration	-5	22
2024-05-17	134.29	123.23	3.28	0	Deceleration	34	27
2024-05-10	137.37	121.80	7.28	63	Deceleration	42	33
2024-05-03	133.59	120.38	6.93	0	Upward Expansion	48	45
2024-04-26	140.56	118.88	13.75	0	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-04-19	142.63	117.33	15.88	68	Upward Expansion	66	67
2024-04-12	143.79	115.77	16.27	0	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-04-05	144.37	114.43	16.42	0	Upward Expansion	72	73
2024-03-29	147.95	113.04	20.31	0	Upward Expansion	91	81
2024-03-22	142.59	111.58	17.19	0	Upward Expansion	88	85
2024-03-15	137.87	110.19	16.22	0	Upward Expansion	84	89
2024-03-08	142.00	109.19	20.70	83	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-03-01	129.23	107.98	10.06	0	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-02-23	127.55	107.24	8.40	0	Upward Expansion	88	95
2024-02-16	124.33	106.62	4.88	0	Upward Expansion	85	93
2024-02-09	122.75	106.05	4.79	0	Upward Expansion	80	68
2024-02-02	120.91	105.40	0.55	0	Upward Expansion	79	65
2024-01-26	117.84	104.92	-2.81	0	Upward Expansion	73	62
2024-01-19	114.32	104.56	-2.90	0	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-01-12	116.40	104.32	-2.99	0	Upward Expansion	70	79
2024-01-05	116.08	104.06	-4.42	0	Upward Expansion	71	85
2023-12-29	116.22	103.72	-4.76	0	Rotation Up	75	89
2023-12-22	114.32	103.44	-5.81	13	Rotation Up	45	78
2023-12-15	116.35	103.47	-3.28	0	Rotation Up	45	76
2023-12-08	112.88	103.73	-5.01	0	Rotation Up	43	53
2023-12-01	110.99	104.22	-6.77	0	Downward Expansion	39	43
2023-11-24	108.06	104.69	-7.91	10	Downward Expansion	-0	18
2023-11-17	107.16	105.26	-9.67	106	Downward Expansion	-17	17
2023-11-10	88.46	106.00	-24.19	0	Downward Expansion	-78	63
2023-11-03	94.39	107.33	-19.41	0	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2023-10-27	91.72	108.56	-18.04	0	Downward Expansion	-69	71
2023-10-20	91.18	109.92	-19.68	0	Downward Expansion	-73	86

Price vs TrendAbove+15.3%

Trend directionRising+13.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+27.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+16.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+18.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+12.0%

Price momentumPositive+33.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.00×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

55 / ±100

-13.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

58 /100

-29.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TGTC Directional State ↗ TGTC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance14

Rotation Up51

Upward Expansion75

Deceleration63

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion22

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 35%Deceleration 4%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 31%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-10-09	Extended	+60.2%
Rotation Up	2025-12-26	2026-01-23	Developing	+14.0%
Balance	2025-12-05	2025-12-19	New	+4.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-11-28	Developing	+6.3%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-09-12	Developing	-8.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-07-25	Established	-22.9%
Balance	2025-01-10	2025-02-21	Developing	-12.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-01-03	New	+3.0%
Rotation Down	2024-11-22	2024-12-06	New	+3.9%
Balance	2024-11-01	2024-11-15	New	+4.4%
Rotation Up	2024-10-18	2024-10-25	New	-2.2%
Balance	2024-09-13	2024-10-11	Developing	+5.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-09	2024-09-06	Developing	+11.9%
Balance	2024-07-26	2024-08-02	New	-6.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing20

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution50

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 84/100
Current Relative Strength: 17.96
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +33.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +20.9%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 71th percentile7 in cohort

Test TGTC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.00×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TGTC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 137.92falling

Slow Activity EUR 127.15rising

Trend Reference EUR 119.71+15.3% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 108.36+27.4% close margin

Structural low EUR 99.07shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +3.5%

Annualized volatility +25.1%

From structural high -3.5%

From structural low +94.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	+4.2%-12.8% to +14.5%	+73.7%	+73.7%	+1.5%	+84.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+4.6%-15.1% to +25.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-4.8%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	+5.7%-1.7% to +43.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-2.4%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-11.3%-28.9% to +6.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-6.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TGTC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map