Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Cyclical

HFG Stage Analysis

HelloFresh SE

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 2.26Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -94−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 88/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -73.0%EUR 8.39 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	2.26	3.77	-61.98	1540	Downward Expansion	-94	88
2026-09-18	2.69	3.85	-55.07	0	Downward Expansion	-77	84
2026-09-11	2.75	3.93	-55.79	500	Downward Expansion	-76	90
2026-09-04	2.78	4.01	-56.30	1000	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2026-08-28	2.82	4.12	-56.51	2468	Downward Expansion	-87	95
2026-08-21	2.85	4.21	-56.06	0	Downward Expansion	-92	97
2026-08-14	3.10	4.30	-54.02	0	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2026-08-07	3.35	4.39	-50.66	400	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2026-07-31	3.43	4.47	-49.46	0	Downward Expansion	-77	86
2026-07-24	3.41	4.56	-51.09	0	Downward Expansion	-84	85
2026-07-17	3.69	4.64	-47.71	0	Downward Expansion	-74	78
2026-07-10	3.70	4.70	-49.77	0	Downward Expansion	-76	72
2026-07-03	4.06	4.77	-46.67	0	Downward Expansion	-59	59
2026-06-26	3.78	4.84	-50.27	0	Downward Expansion	-77	70
2026-06-19	4.07	4.92	-48.44	0	Downward Expansion	-64	43
2026-06-12	4.18	4.96	-45.87	0	Downward Expansion	-57	35
2026-06-05	4.20	5.01	-45.33	0	Downward Expansion	-57	36
2026-05-29	4.38	5.06	-44.73	0	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2026-05-22	4.31	5.15	-45.42	51	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2026-05-15	4.24	5.26	-46.58	20173	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2026-05-08	4.20	5.35	-48.42	46221	Downward Expansion	-46	28
2026-05-01	4.62	5.46	-43.68	592	Downward Expansion	-46	34
2026-04-24	4.43	5.55	-46.67	0	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2026-04-17	4.56	5.64	-47.90	4093	Downward Expansion	-66	60
2026-04-10	3.88	5.75	-55.34	1	Downward Expansion	-72	85
2026-04-03	3.91	5.87	-52.80	46	Downward Expansion	-76	88
2026-03-27	3.92	6.01	-51.76	1748	Downward Expansion	-83	87
2026-03-20	3.64	6.13	-55.16	842	Downward Expansion	-95	95
2026-03-13	4.81	6.28	-42.41	0	Downward Expansion	-73	85
2026-03-06	5.02	6.36	-42.12	48	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2026-02-27	4.79	6.51	-48.51	0	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2026-02-20	4.97	6.65	-48.83	72	Downward Expansion	-80	66
2026-02-13	5.24	6.79	-45.72	0	Downward Expansion	-75	52
2026-02-06	6.04	6.91	-39.38	60	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2026-01-30	5.51	6.99	-45.16	0	Downward Expansion	-68	51
2026-01-23	5.58	7.11	-44.73	62	Downward Expansion	-66	47
2026-01-16	5.83	7.19	-42.86	0	Downward Expansion	-50	42
2026-01-09	5.78	7.26	-44.02	0	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2026-01-02	5.98	7.37	-42.74	0	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2025-12-26	5.73	7.48	-45.34	120	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2025-12-19	5.76	7.64	-46.17	581	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2025-12-12	5.64	7.81	-47.01	416	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2025-12-05	6.05	7.96	-44.16	362	Downward Expansion	-66	83
2025-11-28	6.18	8.09	-43.41	212	Downward Expansion	-66	87
2025-11-21	5.27	8.19	-50.45	118	Downward Expansion	-87	94
2025-11-14	5.80	8.30	-47.02	108	Downward Expansion	-81	84
2025-11-07	5.71	8.38	-47.50	406	Downward Expansion	-83	63
2025-10-31	7.04	8.43	-37.00	240	Downward Expansion	-63	41
2025-10-24	7.56	8.44	-31.19	108	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2025-10-17	7.11	8.45	-34.61	468	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2025-10-10	7.48	8.48	-32.98	4483	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2025-10-03	7.24	8.49	-36.79	1900	Downward Expansion	-69	61
2025-09-26	7.30	8.59	-35.37	0	Downward Expansion	-69	55
2025-09-19	7.71	8.75	-31.92	0	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2025-09-12	7.60	8.92	-33.58	0	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2025-09-05	8.07	9.08	-28.95	0	Downward Expansion	-57	66
2025-08-29	7.58	9.20	-33.64	0	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2025-08-22	8.16	9.30	-31.30	0	Downward Expansion	-54	42
2025-08-15	7.00	9.41	-41.90	654	Downward Expansion	-72	36
2025-08-08	9.46	9.61	-19.78	0	Balance	-13	15
2025-08-01	9.23	9.69	-16.75	0	Balance	-30	15
2025-07-25	9.18	9.81	-18.90	0	Downward Expansion	-47	27
2025-07-18	8.79	9.91	-20.61	0	Downward Expansion	-56	51
2025-07-11	8.48	10.02	-23.16	0	Downward Expansion	-61	69
2025-07-04	8.88	10.16	-17.44	0	Downward Expansion	-50	64
2025-06-27	7.94	10.30	-26.56	2000	Downward Expansion	-67	72
2025-06-20	8.15	10.42	-22.88	0	Downward Expansion	-60	40
2025-06-13	9.00	10.51	-14.90	0	Balance	-23	20
2025-06-06	9.42	10.56	-12.37	0	Balance	-5	23
2025-05-30	10.44	10.60	-1.96	0	Balance	1	26
2025-05-23	10.76	10.61	2.69	0	Downward Expansion	-3	25
2025-05-16	10.25	10.57	-2.64	0	Downward Expansion	-24	29
2025-05-09	9.83	10.52	-3.25	0	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2025-05-02	9.38	10.49	-2.87	0	Downward Expansion	-49	42
2025-04-25	8.47	10.49	-10.62	0	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2025-04-18	8.08	10.52	-11.45	0	Downward Expansion	-67	80
2025-04-11	7.25	10.53	-16.22	0	Rotation Down	-75	89
2025-04-04	7.49	10.55	-14.45	0	Rotation Down	-48	79
2025-03-28	7.92	10.53	-18.38	175	Rotation Down	-47	75
2025-03-21	7.74	10.51	-21.74	250	Rotation Down	-45	68
2025-03-14	8.00	10.50	-19.86	0	Rotation Down	-41	39
2025-03-07	10.30	10.48	3.03	0	Deceleration	3	9
2025-02-28	11.90	10.30	22.01	0	Deceleration	48	32
2025-02-21	12.84	10.08	33.88	5	Deceleration	61	32
2025-02-14	12.56	9.85	29.36	200	Deceleration	46	25
2025-02-07	11.50	9.63	24.02	0	Deceleration	34	20
2025-01-31	10.66	9.44	14.62	2	Deceleration	36	23
2025-01-24	11.40	9.29	22.54	42	Upward Expansion	47	40
2025-01-17	12.92	9.06	40.22	10	Upward Expansion	70	57
2025-01-10	11.88	8.79	33.47	0	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-01-03	12.92	8.57	44.44	200	Upward Expansion	73	67
2024-12-27	12.31	8.33	38.08	0	Upward Expansion	66	70
2024-12-20	12.08	8.11	36.20	0	Upward Expansion	68	72
2024-12-13	12.68	7.90	39.85	0	Upward Expansion	81	79
2024-12-06	13.08	7.67	45.85	0	Upward Expansion	92	84
2024-11-29	11.55	7.42	29.19	100	Upward Expansion	83	82
2024-11-22	10.60	7.24	17.87	0	Upward Expansion	68	82
2024-11-15	10.51	7.13	14.76	0	Upward Expansion	70	82
2024-11-08	10.87	7.01	17.19	110	Upward Expansion	82	70
2024-11-01	10.64	6.87	12.67	1500	Upward Expansion	86	70
2024-10-25	9.54	6.72	-3.08	3716	Upward Expansion	75	73
2024-10-18	8.66	6.63	-15.86	0	Upward Expansion	66	83
2024-10-11	8.95	6.56	-16.01	0	Upward Expansion	66	86
2024-10-04	9.33	6.51	-15.42	0	Upward Expansion	81	92
2024-09-27	9.33	6.59	-19.18	1000	Rotation Up	87	87
2024-09-20	8.50	6.70	-28.50	0	Rotation Up	54	69
2024-09-13	8.00	6.84	-35.27	4442	Rotation Up	40	61
2024-09-06	6.72	6.98	-47.72	0	Rotation Up	22	38
2024-08-30	7.43	7.19	-46.63	0	Balance	16	34
2024-08-23	7.43	7.34	-47.99	0	Balance	14	20
2024-08-16	7.28	7.53	-49.79	0	Downward Expansion	2	8
2024-08-09	5.09	7.68	-65.27	0	Downward Expansion	-69	50
2024-08-02	5.20	7.95	-65.19	0	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2024-07-26	5.90	8.22	-63.13	0	Downward Expansion	-40	30
2024-07-19	5.86	8.49	-64.40	0	Downward Expansion	-50	48
2024-07-12	5.84	8.77	-65.59	0	Downward Expansion	-54	59
2024-07-05	6.27	9.07	-63.98	2216	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-06-28	4.51	9.40	-74.04	0	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2024-06-21	4.88	9.72	-72.43	0	Downward Expansion	-88	96
2024-06-14	5.28	10.05	-70.30	0	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2024-06-07	5.70	10.41	-69.53	0	Downward Expansion	-68	70
2024-05-31	5.57	10.89	-70.92	0	Downward Expansion	-72	75
2024-05-24	5.87	11.43	-70.41	0	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2024-05-17	5.69	11.96	-71.92	0	Downward Expansion	-75	69
2024-05-10	5.71	12.61	-71.87	0	Downward Expansion	-79	70
2024-05-03	6.15	13.26	-69.52	0	Downward Expansion	-76	70
2024-04-26	7.23	13.92	-64.48	450	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2024-04-19	6.81	14.62	-67.10	0	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2024-04-12	6.60	15.42	-68.86	0	Downward Expansion	-70	89
2024-04-05	6.42	16.31	-70.35	15	Downward Expansion	-78	92
2024-03-29	6.59	17.07	-69.79	0	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2024-03-22	6.63	17.83	-69.75	0	Downward Expansion	-93	77
2024-03-15	7.40	18.49	-65.76	12	Downward Expansion	-93	75
2024-03-08	11.70	19.10	-45.84	700	Downward Expansion	-75	66
2024-03-01	12.77	19.51	-41.25	1356	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2024-02-23	12.58	19.92	-42.65	0	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2024-02-16	12.40	20.37	-44.19	0	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2024-02-09	12.80	20.68	-42.02	0	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-02-02	12.18	21.03	-46.58	0	Downward Expansion	-73	72
2024-01-26	13.10	21.45	-43.35	0	Downward Expansion	-68	79
2024-01-19	11.63	21.77	-48.48	0	Downward Expansion	-85	87
2024-01-12	13.12	22.06	-43.40	0	Downward Expansion	-76	87
2024-01-05	13.30	22.24	-43.84	100	Downward Expansion	-79	90
2023-12-29	14.18	22.40	-40.81	0	Downward Expansion	-73	87
2023-12-22	14.25	22.61	-40.43	0	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2023-12-15	14.84	22.89	-37.70	0	Downward Expansion	-71	89
2023-12-08	16.04	23.14	-32.10	0	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2023-12-01	14.20	23.40	-40.25	361	Rotation Down	-86	95
2023-11-24	14.82	23.75	-37.09	185	Rotation Down	-63	86
2023-11-17	16.02	24.10	-32.89	0	Rotation Down	-57	81
2023-11-10	20.17	24.42	-14.25	0	Rotation Down	-45	68
2023-11-03	21.66	24.56	-7.99	0	Deceleration	-38	45
2023-10-27	21.89	24.59	-1.93	0	Deceleration	-29	38
2023-10-20	25.04	24.59	11.77	0	Deceleration	18	27
2023-10-13	25.17	24.34	8.50	0	Upward Expansion	33	22
2023-10-06	26.11	24.03	13.55	0	Upward Expansion	60	50

Price vs TrendBelow-40.0%

Trend directionFalling-18.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-73.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-9.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-62.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-11.7%

Price momentumNegative-42.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.00×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-94 / ±100

-7.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

88 /100

-6.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HFG Directional State ↗ HFG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance0

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion17

Deceleration41

Rotation Down84

Downward Expansion95

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 12%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 69%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2025-08-15	2026-09-25	Extended	-67.7%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-08-08	New	+2.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-07-25	Developing	+12.7%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-06-13	New	-13.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-05-23	Developing	+33.0%
Rotation Down	2025-03-14	2025-04-11	Developing	-9.4%
Deceleration	2025-01-31	2025-03-07	Developing	-3.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-04	2025-01-24	Established	+22.3%
Rotation Up	2024-09-06	2024-09-27	New	+38.9%
Balance	2024-08-23	2024-08-30	New	-0.0%
Downward Expansion	2023-12-08	2024-08-16	Extended	-54.6%
Rotation Down	2023-11-10	2023-12-01	New	-29.6%
Deceleration	2023-10-20	2023-11-03	New	-13.5%
Upward Expansion	2023-08-11	2023-10-13	Developing	+4.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing55

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution15

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 85/100
Current Relative Strength: -61.98
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -42.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -74.1%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 46th percentile46 in cohort

Test HFG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.18×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.00×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HFG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 2.58falling

Slow Activity EUR 3.44falling

Trend Reference EUR 3.77-40.0% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 8.39-73.0% close margin

Structural low EUR 2.26shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +10.0%

Annualized volatility +44.7%

From structural high -71.3%

From structural low +0.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	41	-5.5%-48.4% to +26.8%	+36.6%	+63.4%	-6.4%	+85.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	-16.2%-51.3% to +19.7%	+35.7%	+64.3%	-14.0%	+85.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-12.0%-64.5% to +129.6%	+42.9%	+57.1%	-29.0%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-43.7%-71.4% to +16.7%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-62.8%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HFG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map