Weekly structural research · EBS · Communication Services

MCHN Stage Analysis

MCH Group AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CHF 6.62Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^SSMI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 79−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 92/100directional strength

Maturity 72/100lifecycle context

Confidence 94/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +54.9%CHF 4.27 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	6.62	5.26	40.88	20882	Upward Expansion	79	92
2026-09-25	6.68	5.18	40.91	33419	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-09-18	6.58	5.11	41.89	32125	Upward Expansion	92	95
2026-09-11	6.18	5.04	34.77	34649	Upward Expansion	66	65
2026-09-04	6.30	4.98	32.70	91	Upward Expansion	77	69
2026-08-28	6.24	4.92	32.63	1702	Upward Expansion	75	68
2026-08-21	6.14	4.86	31.11	10623	Upward Expansion	70	67
2026-08-14	6.04	4.81	30.65	142	Upward Expansion	66	66
2026-08-07	6.12	4.75	32.03	1428	Upward Expansion	69	83
2026-07-31	6.12	4.69	34.87	2175	Upward Expansion	71	89
2026-07-24	6.08	4.60	35.08	3384	Upward Expansion	69	89
2026-07-17	6.08	4.52	35.83	7092	Upward Expansion	72	90
2026-07-10	6.14	4.43	39.33	1251	Upward Expansion	83	94
2026-07-03	6.02	4.34	35.84	15400	Upward Expansion	88	96
2026-06-26	6.06	4.24	40.05	9084	Upward Expansion	95	98
2026-06-19	5.60	4.16	34.04	25704	Upward Expansion	93	89
2026-06-12	4.97	4.08	20.24	17453	Upward Expansion	83	67
2026-06-05	4.59	4.02	14.07	8421	Upward Expansion	68	45
2026-05-29	4.41	3.98	8.65	17833	Upward Expansion	58	51
2026-05-22	4.36	3.95	7.78	9196	Upward Expansion	59	62
2026-05-15	4.42	3.93	11.73	10394	Deceleration	61	64
2026-05-08	4.47	3.89	14.45	15814	Deceleration	56	47
2026-05-01	4.40	3.86	12.93	18338	Deceleration	51	37
2026-04-24	4.30	3.83	10.71	18566	Deceleration	40	19
2026-04-17	4.30	3.80	9.14	69431	Deceleration	22	22
2026-04-10	3.72	3.78	-3.61	15884	Deceleration	-22	36
2026-04-03	3.56	3.77	-6.39	7021	Deceleration	-30	36
2026-03-27	3.70	3.76	0.41	46084	Deceleration	5	22
2026-03-20	3.66	3.76	1.43	21488	Deceleration	11	20
2026-03-13	4.08	3.75	8.58	17621	Deceleration	41	29
2026-03-06	4.19	3.73	9.64	29101	Upward Expansion	48	41
2026-02-27	4.41	3.71	8.08	10696	Upward Expansion	61	54
2026-02-20	4.42	3.69	9.69	13721	Upward Expansion	64	59
2026-02-13	4.51	3.67	14.30	18069	Upward Expansion	69	79
2026-02-06	4.37	3.63	12.35	15225	Upward Expansion	68	87
2026-01-30	4.60	3.61	20.61	22477	Upward Expansion	83	93
2026-01-23	4.52	3.58	19.22	102848	Rotation Up	88	93
2026-01-16	4.42	3.56	14.47	105021	Rotation Up	64	80
2026-01-09	4.13	3.54	6.69	60520	Rotation Up	47	52
2026-01-02	3.60	3.53	-6.21	14539	Balance	-7	18
2025-12-26	3.60	3.53	-6.49	25257	Downward Expansion	-14	8
2025-12-19	3.43	3.54	-10.82	63701	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2025-12-12	3.41	3.55	-9.91	49965	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2025-12-05	3.10	3.55	-18.81	30926	Downward Expansion	-80	72
2025-11-28	3.42	3.55	-10.30	47483	Downward Expansion	-55	55
2025-11-21	3.27	3.54	-13.35	43643	Downward Expansion	-71	63
2025-11-14	3.35	3.53	-11.70	12174	Balance	-63	39
2025-11-07	3.37	3.53	-9.30	18480	Balance	-36	22
2025-10-31	3.53	3.53	-5.06	18457	Balance	-11	11
2025-10-24	3.54	3.52	-7.75	42338	Balance	-24	29
2025-10-17	3.45	3.52	-11.08	16268	Balance	-26	34
2025-10-10	3.39	3.53	-11.89	8908	Balance	-36	25
2025-10-03	3.42	3.54	-11.59	24746	Balance	-23	16
2025-09-26	3.50	3.55	-5.48	28024	Balance	-15	12
2025-09-19	3.60	3.56	-4.37	28800	Rotation Down	-14	17
2025-09-12	3.50	3.56	-8.03	19333	Rotation Down	-19	36
2025-09-05	3.45	3.57	-10.99	6854	Rotation Down	-24	43
2025-08-29	3.50	3.59	-8.64	72845	Balance	-26	34
2025-08-22	3.50	3.60	-9.44	32108	Balance	-25	24
2025-08-15	3.47	3.61	-8.92	8285	Balance	-16	15
2025-08-08	3.51	3.64	-6.49	33302	Balance	-8	12
2025-08-01	3.73	3.66	-0.56	6007	Balance	10	10
2025-07-25	3.77	3.67	-0.60	25432	Balance	14	10
2025-07-18	3.53	3.68	-7.20	7957	Rotation Up	-4	10
2025-07-11	3.70	3.69	-2.66	31711	Rotation Up	20	24
2025-07-04	3.80	3.70	-0.40	43404	Rotation Up	24	38
2025-06-27	3.87	3.71	1.32	17620	Rotation Up	31	46
2025-06-20	3.74	3.72	-1.29	23071	Rotation Up	22	34
2025-06-13	3.78	3.72	-2.81	59043	Downward Expansion	24	36
2025-06-06	3.70	3.74	-7.03	26873	Downward Expansion	-12	29
2025-05-30	3.90	3.76	-1.62	93845	Downward Expansion	-2	19
2025-05-23	3.72	3.77	-6.53	77078	Downward Expansion	-30	25
2025-05-16	3.40	3.80	-16.34	55036	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2025-05-09	3.17	3.82	-21.31	59224	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2025-05-02	3.03	3.85	-26.76	49591	Downward Expansion	-78	90
2025-04-25	2.99	3.88	-26.80	78358	Downward Expansion	-86	90
2025-04-18	3.30	3.91	-18.27	30120	Downward Expansion	-72	77
2025-04-11	3.29	3.94	-16.26	103469	Downward Expansion	-76	68
2025-04-04	3.33	3.98	-18.92	61724	Downward Expansion	-79	68
2025-03-28	3.58	4.00	-21.54	118042	Downward Expansion	-66	52
2025-03-21	3.75	4.01	-19.94	15154	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2025-03-14	3.55	4.02	-23.87	45123	Downward Expansion	-76	70
2025-03-07	3.72	4.03	-21.77	16762	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2025-02-28	3.82	4.04	-19.69	8497	Downward Expansion	-59	62
2025-02-21	3.71	4.04	-22.10	22938	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2025-02-14	3.89	4.05	-18.07	25976	Balance	-54	53
2025-02-07	3.85	4.06	-17.49	14527	Balance	-57	42
2025-01-31	3.85	4.06	-17.59	32383	Balance	-30	13
2025-01-24	3.90	4.07	-14.52	45699	Balance	-8	8
2025-01-17	4.30	4.07	-3.54	41635	Balance	46	23
2025-01-10	4.17	4.08	-4.83	17800	Downward Expansion	8	10
2025-01-03	4.00	4.10	-7.40	21799	Downward Expansion	-45	42
2024-12-27	3.93	4.14	-8.82	1192	Balance	-53	51
2024-12-20	3.97	4.18	-6.41	33228	Balance	-46	41
2024-12-13	3.99	4.23	-8.54	7807	Balance	-45	33
2024-12-06	3.99	4.29	-9.34	17328	Balance	-43	29
2024-11-29	4.16	4.35	-5.57	17522	Balance	-25	16
2024-11-22	3.96	4.39	-9.89	29625	Balance	-36	15
2024-11-15	4.20	4.43	-3.97	8825	Balance	-2	19
2024-11-08	4.33	4.46	-2.72	9892	Balance	0	22
2024-11-01	4.33	4.49	-4.40	9764	Balance	-2	16
2024-10-25	4.40	4.51	-4.86	42371	Downward Expansion	-4	9
2024-10-18	4.26	4.53	-9.25	51841	Downward Expansion	-30	27
2024-10-11	3.96	4.56	-14.75	147475	Downward Expansion	-60	40
2024-10-04	3.97	4.58	-13.69	7617	Downward Expansion	-47	28
2024-09-27	3.90	4.61	-17.16	30856	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2024-09-20	4.29	4.63	-7.01	31435	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2024-09-13	4.24	4.64	-9.10	38880	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2024-09-06	3.95	4.62	-14.47	6905	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2024-08-30	4.07	4.61	-15.78	39209	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2024-08-23	3.80	4.60	-20.94	11094	Downward Expansion	-69	60
2024-08-16	3.98	4.60	-16.37	22561	Rotation Down	-63	54
2024-08-09	3.90	4.60	-16.07	20075	Rotation Down	-42	47
2024-08-02	3.92	4.60	-15.95	24853	Rotation Down	-44	49
2024-07-26	4.00	4.60	-16.99	47739	Rotation Down	-42	64
2024-07-19	4.21	4.61	-12.35	45999	Rotation Down	-31	69
2024-07-12	4.00	4.61	-18.24	1140793	Rotation Down	-37	73
2024-07-05	3.89	4.61	-18.35	26770	Rotation Down	-49	69
2024-06-28	4.10	4.62	-14.12	88777	Deceleration	-44	48
2024-06-21	4.44	4.63	-7.31	19285	Deceleration	-4	25
2024-06-14	4.75	4.62	-1.20	34354	Upward Expansion	25	23
2024-06-07	5.20	4.61	6.29	41526	Upward Expansion	50	43
2024-05-31	5.10	4.59	6.50	15852	Upward Expansion	66	60
2024-05-24	5.62	4.57	18.08	16033	Upward Expansion	70	86
2024-05-17	5.70	4.53	19.04	14421	Upward Expansion	79	86
2024-05-10	5.74	4.48	23.17	49301	Upward Expansion	88	84
2024-05-03	5.38	4.43	20.89	27250	Upward Expansion	78	74
2024-04-26	5.32	4.40	19.23	57537	Upward Expansion	80	68
2024-04-19	5.14	4.37	16.03	80180	Upward Expansion	74	69
2024-04-12	5.12	4.35	14.98	71608	Upward Expansion	77	84
2024-04-05	4.95	4.32	10.28	63371	Upward Expansion	69	85
2024-03-29	5.02	4.29	9.75	82406	Upward Expansion	80	91
2024-03-22	5.02	4.26	10.57	79111	Rotation Up	86	92
2024-03-15	4.83	4.22	6.35	75888	Rotation Up	46	55
2024-03-08	4.58	4.20	1.11	29039	Rotation Up	36	44
2024-03-01	4.60	4.19	2.72	163875	Rotation Up	23	27
2024-02-23	4.48	4.18	-0.10	260819	Downward Expansion	-17	18
2024-02-16	3.86	4.17	-12.61	199502	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2024-02-09	3.60	4.19	-17.26	81141	Downward Expansion	-82	84
2024-02-02	3.70	4.21	-16.58	51950	Downward Expansion	-79	79
2024-01-26	3.89	4.23	-13.99	16080	Downward Expansion	-68	70
2024-01-19	3.87	4.24	-13.01	51996	Downward Expansion	-73	66
2024-01-12	3.98	4.26	-11.49	18984	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2024-01-05	4.02	4.28	-10.60	26619	Downward Expansion	-69	60
2023-12-29	4.18	4.30	-6.99	5677	Balance	-45	45
2023-12-22	4.15	4.32	-8.01	35146	Balance	-49	43
2023-12-15	4.15	4.34	-8.61	28673	Balance	-47	32
2023-12-08	4.25	4.36	-5.69	33558	Balance	-26	17
2023-12-01	4.19	4.37	-5.72	32577	Balance	-26	11
2023-11-24	4.30	4.39	-3.42	15575	Balance	9	14
2023-11-17	4.50	4.40	2.25	54201	Balance	19	31
2023-11-10	4.53	4.40	4.73	8172	Balance	24	27
2023-11-03	4.43	4.41	2.16	7642	Balance	-3	7
2023-10-27	4.40	4.41	3.78	24711	Balance	-6	7
2023-10-20	4.30	4.42	1.11	9215	Balance	-12	14
2023-10-13	4.26	4.41	-5.18	38373	Balance	-12	20

Price vs TrendAbove+25.7%

Trend directionRising+14.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+54.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+8.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+40.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+5.0%

Price momentumPositive+86.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.30×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

79 / ±100

+1.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

92 /100

+23.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MCHN Directional State ↗ MCHN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance4

Rotation Up65

Upward Expansion98

Deceleration42

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion22

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-10-02	Established	+51.8%
Deceleration	2026-03-13	2026-05-15	Developing	+8.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-03-06	Developing	-8.9%
Rotation Up	2026-01-09	2026-01-23	New	+9.4%
Balance	2026-01-02	2026-01-02	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2025-12-26	Developing	+10.1%
Balance	2025-09-26	2025-11-14	Developing	-4.3%
Rotation Down	2025-09-05	2025-09-19	New	+4.3%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-08-29	Developing	-7.2%
Rotation Up	2025-06-20	2025-07-18	Developing	-5.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-06-13	Established	+1.9%
Balance	2025-01-17	2025-02-14	Developing	-9.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-01-10	New	+4.2%
Balance	2024-11-01	2024-12-27	Developing	-9.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing16

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution54

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SSMI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 90/100
Current Relative Strength: 40.88
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +86.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +80.7%
Communication Services regime cohort: 100th percentile3 in cohort

Test MCHN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.66×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.30×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MCHN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CHF 6.55rising

Slow Activity CHF 5.82rising

Trend Reference CHF 5.26+25.7% close margin

Current Fair Value CHF 4.27+54.9% close margin

Structural low CHF 3.52shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +2.4%

Annualized volatility +29.6%

From structural high -4.9%

From structural low +122.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^SSMI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	10	+0.8%-21.0% to +28.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.3%	+70.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	-7.8%-18.3% to +40.8%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-6.7%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-22.3%-38.6% to +33.0%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-26.6%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-40.4%-52.1% to -28.7%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-41.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MCHN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map