Weekly structural research · BUE · Industrials

HON Stage Analysis

Honeywell International Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close ARS 43,380.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^MERV

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and stable.

Direction -20−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 28/100directional strength

Maturity 7/100lifecycle context

Confidence 39/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatestable separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +25.0%ARS 34,700.73 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	43,380.00	42,950.47	9.17	4099	Rotation Down	-20	28
2026-09-25	42,980.00	42,953.79	2.57	4832	Rotation Down	-25	45
2026-09-18	41,320.00	43,005.79	-6.38	11073	Rotation Down	-29	50
2026-09-11	40,380.00	43,103.78	-12.01	2324	Deceleration	-39	44
2026-09-04	41,520.00	43,234.43	-9.13	10527	Deceleration	-1	23
2026-08-28	43,640.00	43,332.42	-2.88	831	Upward Expansion	35	20
2026-08-21	43,120.00	43,297.75	-2.35	1183	Upward Expansion	48	39
2026-08-14	46,000.00	43,260.40	2.60	2329	Upward Expansion	65	77
2026-08-07	48,581.11	43,116.39	3.37	555	Upward Expansion	79	86
2026-07-31	47,942.94	42,827.01	-4.32	133	Upward Expansion	80	82
2026-07-24	48,281.62	42,486.24	-3.63	256	Upward Expansion	87	81
2026-07-17	44,274.22	42,132.18	-9.51	49	Upward Expansion	58	63
2026-07-10	44,175.47	41,950.36	-12.43	201	Upward Expansion	57	62
2026-07-03	44,720.00	41,693.84	-9.63	0	Deceleration	64	57
2026-06-26	44,720.00	41,403.16	-7.87	97	Deceleration	54	38
2026-06-19	43,000.00	41,131.82	-16.19	7	Deceleration	32	22
2026-06-12	41,200.00	40,897.15	-21.42	560	Deceleration	26	20
2026-06-05	40,380.00	40,761.14	-16.64	6935	Deceleration	15	12
2026-05-29	44,160.00	40,615.12	-11.49	5798	Deceleration	46	21
2026-05-22	42,420.00	40,405.11	-5.53	10437	Deceleration	12	24
2026-05-15	39,460.00	40,400.43	-7.50	4311	Deceleration	-25	48
2026-05-08	39,679.85	40,397.08	-8.98	1186	Deceleration	-6	27
2026-05-01	40,099.85	40,324.40	-10.11	1078	Deceleration	0	11
2026-04-24	39,579.86	40,317.06	-11.61	5045	Deceleration	-0	5
2026-04-17	42,639.84	40,271.05	-6.32	1066	Deceleration	35	20
2026-04-10	43,359.84	40,213.71	-8.05	811	Deceleration	38	24
2026-04-03	42,379.84	40,069.03	-10.18	958	Deceleration	30	23
2026-03-27	41,239.85	39,893.86	-6.30	1247	Deceleration	35	24
2026-03-20	40,659.85	39,755.02	-5.25	1404	Upward Expansion	41	28
2026-03-13	43,219.84	39,633.01	3.99	2914	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-03-06	43,479.84	39,382.33	5.59	4173	Upward Expansion	64	57
2026-02-27	44,539.84	39,132.99	7.78	1938	Upward Expansion	71	81
2026-02-20	44,259.69	38,887.47	-1.26	1081	Upward Expansion	71	82
2026-02-13	44,299.69	38,617.13	1.06	1773	Upward Expansion	75	83
2026-02-06	44,459.69	38,415.46	-3.70	3384	Upward Expansion	82	84
2026-01-30	42,599.70	38,180.95	-13.92	3548	Upward Expansion	74	77
2026-01-23	41,999.70	37,951.78	-12.19	4347	Upward Expansion	71	67
2026-01-16	41,679.71	37,695.10	-8.00	3006	Balance	70	57
2026-01-09	39,899.72	37,387.43	-16.28	2102	Balance	48	29
2026-01-02	37,719.73	37,169.09	-21.66	770	Balance	29	16
2025-12-26	37,659.73	37,051.75	-21.46	2138	Balance	24	11
2025-12-19	38,819.73	36,928.91	-19.85	3467	Balance	20	10
2025-12-12	36,479.74	36,708.23	-20.73	840	Balance	-14	21
2025-12-05	35,999.75	36,578.89	-23.58	1481	Balance	-17	19
2025-11-28	36,579.74	36,403.05	-22.03	1787	Balance	7	17
2025-11-21	35,959.75	36,233.70	-16.21	1937	Balance	2	14
2025-11-14	37,119.74	36,031.69	-20.32	5473	Upward Expansion	26	13
2025-11-07	35,999.60	35,757.68	-19.59	11785	Upward Expansion	25	17
2025-10-31	37,859.58	35,667.67	-19.67	4319	Upward Expansion	52	32
2025-10-24	42,279.54	35,474.00	29.09	4925	Upward Expansion	77	49
2025-10-17	39,359.57	35,207.99	26.10	10119	Upward Expansion	59	37
2025-10-10	37,499.59	35,025.99	24.42	4938	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-10-03	39,879.56	34,857.64	41.43	8084	Upward Expansion	69	66
2025-09-26	38,199.58	34,623.31	37.26	1781	Upward Expansion	62	60
2025-09-19	40,919.55	34,437.46	56.94	4680	Upward Expansion	84	79
2025-09-12	39,019.57	34,144.29	44.53	1584	Upward Expansion	76	55
2025-09-05	37,124.59	33,856.11	21.84	1301	Upward Expansion	61	41
2025-08-29	37,074.59	33,654.43	22.54	2011	Upward Expansion	52	36
2025-08-22	36,999.59	33,523.59	15.10	4057	Upward Expansion	54	38
2025-08-15	35,699.61	33,380.24	6.51	755	Upward Expansion	57	41
2025-08-08	35,999.46	33,299.40	1.76	358	Upward Expansion	63	65
2025-08-01	37,174.45	33,186.89	5.47	2035	Upward Expansion	68	80
2025-07-25	36,149.46	33,066.88	5.43	1463	Upward Expansion	65	80
2025-07-18	38,249.43	32,995.21	17.36	1478	Upward Expansion	83	86
2025-07-11	37,424.45	32,827.70	18.07	1241	Upward Expansion	80	72
2025-07-04	35,724.46	32,611.86	8.33	4429	Balance	71	54
2025-06-27	34,299.49	32,429.35	5.20	1532	Balance	61	44
2025-06-20	32,449.52	32,353.51	-2.23	394	Balance	52	41
2025-06-13	33,349.50	32,326.00	-3.17	893	Balance	53	44
2025-06-06	34,199.49	32,297.66	-2.67	1660	Balance	35	30
2025-05-30	33,974.49	32,211.81	-9.22	11599	Balance	13	15
2025-05-23	32,199.52	32,105.14	-16.82	586	Balance	-28	13
2025-05-16	32,599.51	32,038.46	-15.43	560	Rotation Down	-11	15
2025-05-09	30,724.41	32,056.78	-13.13	1041	Rotation Down	-54	51
2025-05-02	31,499.39	32,078.43	-10.87	274	Rotation Down	-24	35
2025-04-25	29,899.42	32,070.93	-20.48	357	Rotation Down	-34	32
2025-04-18	28,899.45	32,137.58	-22.09	144	Rotation Down	-29	20
2025-04-11	33,299.36	32,200.90	-13.88	723	Balance	52	42
2025-04-04	32,049.38	32,155.90	-12.14	449	Balance	45	42
2025-03-28	34,299.34	32,125.89	-17.24	308	Balance	70	62
2025-03-21	33,899.34	32,108.38	-20.79	2939	Balance	64	44
2025-03-14	32,449.38	32,066.70	-21.72	458	Balance	32	18
2025-03-07	32,849.36	32,051.69	-19.12	262	Balance	26	13
2025-02-28	32,624.37	32,036.68	-18.64	603	Balance	-0	12
2025-02-21	32,124.24	32,072.50	-26.10	2364	Balance	-7	16
2025-02-14	30,374.28	32,114.16	-31.65	576	Balance	-24	23
2025-02-07	31,074.27	32,295.81	-31.84	1002	Balance	-10	8
2025-01-31	33,149.22	32,547.46	-32.45	1378	Balance	24	16
2025-01-24	32,699.23	32,684.34	-34.15	1134	Rotation Up	24	23
2025-01-17	33,274.22	32,792.66	-32.35	10051	Rotation Up	17	36
2025-01-10	32,624.23	32,816.82	-41.47	572	Rotation Up	14	26
2025-01-03	33,574.21	32,828.54	-39.03	720	Balance	20	28
2024-12-27	33,999.20	32,856.02	-35.54	822	Balance	4	10
2024-12-20	33,224.22	32,774.26	-35.08	4504	Balance	-7	6
2024-12-13	30,949.27	32,690.80	-37.74	8681	Balance	-49	33
2024-12-06	30,249.29	32,608.23	-35.33	4396	Balance	-58	27
2024-11-29	32,024.24	32,512.39	-33.93	2683	Balance	-30	16
2024-11-22	31,624.25	32,357.86	-34.06	862	Balance	-5	7
2024-11-15	32,499.24	32,175.54	-28.15	5315	Deceleration	-8	13
2024-11-08	31,624.12	31,952.60	-27.49	1328	Deceleration	-24	19
2024-11-01	30,774.14	31,755.76	-27.21	2210	Deceleration	-32	24
2024-10-25	30,199.16	31,590.76	-29.26	1974	Deceleration	-41	25
2024-10-18	33,149.08	31,511.82	-21.12	1323	Deceleration	22	13
2024-10-11	31,374.13	31,321.45	-24.31	578	Deceleration	-2	23
2024-10-04	31,274.13	31,150.21	-24.12	842	Deceleration	-1	24
2024-09-27	31,899.11	30,982.36	-22.21	654	Deceleration	3	18
2024-09-20	30,799.14	30,817.99	-29.68	492	Deceleration	-4	16
2024-09-13	31,949.11	30,731.10	-27.75	1284	Deceleration	8	13
2024-09-06	31,149.13	30,587.09	-26.43	2964	Deceleration	2	14
2024-08-30	33,774.05	30,551.84	-20.90	6114	Deceleration	29	25
2024-08-23	32,649.09	30,486.46	-18.84	294	Deceleration	26	28
2024-08-16	31,999.11	30,447.76	-22.99	710	Deceleration	30	30
2024-08-09	32,398.96	30,473.75	-19.44	305	Upward Expansion	39	27
2024-08-02	33,698.91	30,347.31	-8.06	2515	Upward Expansion	50	43
2024-07-26	33,373.93	30,179.62	-15.82	1041	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-07-19	35,823.84	29,918.17	-11.70	755	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-07-12	38,623.76	29,529.04	-13.36	445	Upward Expansion	90	94
2024-07-05	37,255.80	29,072.58	-12.57	1152	Upward Expansion	90	95
2024-06-28	35,948.84	28,630.69	-15.22	393	Upward Expansion	89	96
2024-06-21	33,998.91	28,175.66	-18.58	45	Upward Expansion	81	93
2024-06-14	32,975.94	27,799.38	-21.84	296	Upward Expansion	77	91
2024-06-07	34,398.40	27,393.49	-15.72	1060	Upward Expansion	95	96
2024-05-31	31,546.49	26,933.50	-29.38	129	Upward Expansion	86	84
2024-05-24	30,720.51	26,564.51	-26.16	140	Deceleration	81	55
2024-05-17	28,472.09	26,182.20	-30.07	96	Deceleration	50	32
2024-05-10	27,373.99	25,996.24	-30.43	1009	Deceleration	23	13
2024-05-03	27,388.49	25,811.89	-33.24	967	Deceleration	7	17
2024-04-26	26,154.54	25,565.81	-28.58	150	Deceleration	-0	28
2024-04-19	25,811.04	25,328.36	-25.05	533	Deceleration	-3	22
2024-04-12	25,719.05	25,065.71	-29.42	269	Deceleration	-0	9
2024-04-05	25,824.04	24,803.03	-28.10	1080	Deceleration	3	10
2024-03-29	27,830.97	24,508.97	-23.31	1653	Deceleration	17	16
2024-03-22	27,437.99	24,189.82	-26.04	236	Deceleration	25	23
2024-03-15	26,237.03	23,876.36	-19.78	2557	Deceleration	26	27
2024-03-08	26,238.53	23,582.70	-15.37	955	Deceleration	32	30
2024-03-01	26,968.01	23,185.46	-18.08	1080	Deceleration	40	27
2024-02-23	28,192.31	22,748.45	-18.88	2263	Upward Expansion	48	41
2024-02-16	27,628.84	22,254.61	-18.01	353	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-02-09	30,091.74	21,799.30	-16.28	197	Upward Expansion	67	78
2024-02-02	31,812.66	21,261.82	-24.58	261	Upward Expansion	74	89
2024-01-26	31,488.18	20,640.50	-22.30	149	Upward Expansion	79	91
2024-01-19	32,778.61	20,034.46	-14.34	431	Upward Expansion	92	94
2024-01-12	28,605.80	19,371.88	-15.41	362	Upward Expansion	81	83
2024-01-05	28,668.29	18,845.78	-17.52	613	Upward Expansion	87	81
2023-12-29	25,530.43	18,300.73	-17.32	653	Upward Expansion	75	70
2023-12-22	24,149.98	17,861.77	-24.10	340	Upward Expansion	68	64
2023-12-15	24,929.95	17,451.10	-20.71	507	Upward Expansion	78	68
2023-12-08	23,998.99	17,026.41	-26.05	141	Upward Expansion	77	59
2023-12-01	22,298.06	16,602.91	-26.75	6084	Upward Expansion	65	51
2023-11-24	22,710.54	16,236.01	-30.22	109	Upward Expansion	76	55
2023-11-17	20,799.13	15,854.83	-10.58	339	Upward Expansion	60	46
2023-11-10	20,598.63	15,534.90	-14.58	186	Upward Expansion	61	53
2023-11-03	20,476.99	15,179.81	-13.11	267	Upward Expansion	65	61
2023-10-27	19,251.06	14,820.55	-21.41	290	Upward Expansion	67	66
2023-10-20	22,893.38	14,502.16	-24.41	333	Upward Expansion	91	81
2023-10-13	21,843.43	14,043.51	-24.87	2336	Upward Expansion	91	75

Price vs TrendAbove+1.0%

Trend directionRising+1.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+25.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-13.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+9.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+18.8%

Price momentumPositive+2.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.30×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-20 / ±100

-18.8 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

28 /100

+4.9 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HON Directional State ↗ HON Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance41

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion16

Deceleration60

Rotation Down60

Downward Expansion44

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 43%Deceleration 28%Rotation Down 5%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	+5.0%
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-09-11	New	-2.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-08-28	Developing	-1.2%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-07-03	Established	+8.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-03-20	Developing	-3.2%
Balance	2025-11-21	2026-01-16	Developing	+15.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-11-14	Established	-0.8%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-07-04	Developing	+10.9%
Rotation Down	2025-04-18	2025-05-16	Developing	+12.8%
Balance	2025-01-31	2025-04-11	Developing	+0.5%
Rotation Up	2025-01-10	2025-01-24	New	+0.2%
Balance	2024-11-22	2025-01-03	Developing	+6.2%
Deceleration	2024-08-16	2024-11-15	Established	+1.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-31	2024-08-09	Developing	+2.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing43

Stage 2 · Advancing74

Stage 3 · Distribution76

Stage 4 · Declining26

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MERV

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 16/100
Current Relative Strength: 9.17
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +2.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +10.1%
Industrials regime cohort: 33th percentile3 in cohort

Test HON trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.32×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.30×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HON Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity ARS 42,337.33falling

Slow Activity ARS 43,430.24falling

Trend Reference ARS 42,950.47+1.0% close margin

Current Fair Value ARS 34,700.73+25.0% close margin

Structural low ARS 38,379.86shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +4.8%

Annualized volatility +30.3%

From structural high -10.8%

From structural low +24.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MERV	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	+4.9%+2.3% to +12.8%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+6.4%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	2	+21.3%+10.2% to +32.4%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+20.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+43.3%+36.2% to +50.4%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+17.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+67.9%+47.5% to +88.2%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-39.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HON Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map