Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

DBK Stage Analysis

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 29.92Tenure NewBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 3−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 24/100directional strength

Maturity 58/100lifecycle context

Confidence 86/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +40.6%EUR 21.28 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	29.92	29.64	-1.03	24276238	Deceleration	3	24
2026-10-02	30.94	29.46	1.75	27748260	Upward Expansion	34	25
2026-09-25	31.76	29.29	3.76	29732765	Upward Expansion	51	47
2026-09-18	33.05	29.21	8.44	34145373	Upward Expansion	66	66
2026-09-11	34.84	29.11	13.21	19025084	Upward Expansion	71	82
2026-09-04	35.57	28.90	13.60	3026417	Upward Expansion	86	91
2026-08-28	34.90	28.72	9.53	4454124	Upward Expansion	86	91
2026-08-21	32.38	28.62	3.45	3706111	Upward Expansion	64	81
2026-08-14	33.38	28.60	5.42	2990805	Upward Expansion	81	85
2026-08-07	32.89	28.57	4.38	3883792	Upward Expansion	81	76
2026-07-31	31.88	28.54	3.90	4625165	Rotation Up	73	72
2026-07-24	30.59	28.55	1.96	2387279	Rotation Up	38	66
2026-07-17	30.83	28.60	4.03	5029649	Rotation Up	39	69
2026-07-10	31.35	28.64	5.14	4273927	Rotation Up	47	74
2026-07-03	31.83	28.61	4.20	5287155	Rotation Up	48	71
2026-06-26	29.63	28.55	1.76	3758791	Rotation Up	29	58
2026-06-19	31.12	28.54	5.80	12064119	Balance	44	58
2026-06-12	28.74	28.45	-0.49	8313018	Balance	7	21
2026-06-05	27.53	28.52	-4.86	2978993	Downward Expansion	-15	15
2026-05-29	27.86	28.60	-4.84	30693958	Downward Expansion	-27	15
2026-05-22	27.17	28.67	-6.18	25686353	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2026-05-15	25.76	28.69	-7.41	21374853	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2026-05-08	26.21	28.76	-7.16	25718821	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2026-05-01	25.57	28.85	-9.09	22825462	Downward Expansion	-43	24
2026-04-24	26.11	28.97	-6.39	20749325	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2026-04-17	27.89	29.08	-2.10	32686880	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2026-04-10	26.73	29.15	-2.27	31519313	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2026-04-03	24.77	29.27	-6.60	25968017	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2026-03-27	24.04	29.41	-5.50	35388882	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2026-03-20	23.89	29.57	-6.18	47877235	Downward Expansion	-87	91
2026-03-13	24.59	29.79	-7.57	45403131	Balance	-89	86
2026-03-06	25.98	29.98	-2.72	46186954	Balance	-48	61
2026-02-27	29.23	30.11	2.48	25756119	Balance	-23	30
2026-02-20	29.96	30.04	5.66	29562412	Balance	-1	16
2026-02-13	28.56	29.95	2.75	33969792	Upward Expansion	4	13
2026-02-06	30.15	29.83	9.98	37586702	Upward Expansion	34	22
2026-01-30	32.13	29.65	18.93	39766199	Upward Expansion	59	41
2026-01-23	31.73	29.36	16.74	28426464	Upward Expansion	59	44
2026-01-16	32.37	29.14	18.15	28048770	Upward Expansion	66	69
2026-01-09	31.89	28.83	17.50	22094817	Upward Expansion	63	71
2026-01-02	32.38	28.54	23.85	10753732	Upward Expansion	72	75
2025-12-26	32.13	28.25	25.07	5538351	Upward Expansion	73	70
2025-12-19	31.80	27.97	25.31	26750499	Upward Expansion	73	55
2025-12-12	30.48	27.68	21.81	18300169	Upward Expansion	58	31
2025-12-05	30.02	27.44	21.84	17380427	Upward Expansion	56	33
2025-11-28	29.53	27.20	21.91	24274526	Upward Expansion	50	33
2025-11-21	28.35	26.95	21.89	33957481	Upward Expansion	51	36
2025-11-14	30.75	26.71	29.02	23035444	Deceleration	68	46
2025-11-07	29.99	26.33	28.73	21548217	Deceleration	61	33
2025-10-31	29.84	25.94	27.28	28551421	Deceleration	47	24
2025-10-24	27.98	25.53	19.06	27606267	Deceleration	34	23
2025-10-17	27.64	25.29	20.60	28203144	Deceleration	40	26
2025-10-10	29.02	25.07	25.44	19326035	Upward Expansion	47	40
2025-10-03	29.21	24.79	26.59	23224795	Upward Expansion	50	47
2025-09-26	29.47	24.51	32.32	26159185	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-09-19	29.83	24.17	35.85	73463051	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-09-12	30.44	23.79	39.75	27377972	Upward Expansion	75	67
2025-09-05	28.82	23.38	34.40	20040699	Upward Expansion	66	66
2025-08-29	28.97	23.00	34.73	29372391	Upward Expansion	68	85
2025-08-22	30.58	22.63	40.98	21018738	Upward Expansion	83	94
2025-08-15	30.14	22.21	40.54	23246717	Upward Expansion	88	95
2025-08-08	29.96	21.78	42.41	27095580	Upward Expansion	93	96
2025-08-01	27.11	21.32	34.51	26507886	Upward Expansion	82	89
2025-07-25	27.36	20.94	32.69	39879973	Upward Expansion	88	86
2025-07-18	24.94	20.55	21.70	26247680	Upward Expansion	71	73
2025-07-11	24.49	20.23	20.34	28243182	Upward Expansion	69	59
2025-07-04	23.62	19.94	19.00	31709347	Upward Expansion	60	51
2025-06-27	25.08	19.68	25.67	33671033	Upward Expansion	78	59
2025-06-20	23.15	19.35	20.14	37321203	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-06-13	23.04	19.07	19.40	35222703	Upward Expansion	65	59
2025-06-06	23.83	18.80	20.13	28225374	Upward Expansion	72	80
2025-05-30	23.50	18.49	20.58	25895518	Upward Expansion	71	80
2025-05-23	23.24	18.20	21.67	34818406	Upward Expansion	70	81
2025-05-16	23.42	17.92	22.46	32342439	Upward Expansion	77	83
2025-05-09	22.68	17.65	20.57	27695388	Upward Expansion	74	73
2025-05-02	22.06	17.40	19.93	41072573	Deceleration	73	47
2025-04-25	21.11	17.16	19.63	25742987	Deceleration	55	27
2025-04-18	19.41	16.94	15.69	28903322	Deceleration	37	22
2025-04-11	18.12	16.77	12.84	93691950	Upward Expansion	42	28
2025-04-04	17.64	16.62	8.78	64811297	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-03-28	20.82	16.49	18.34	35470219	Upward Expansion	71	72
2025-03-21	20.91	16.26	17.21	48193981	Upward Expansion	78	87
2025-03-14	20.70	16.02	16.13	50257222	Upward Expansion	81	84
2025-03-07	20.74	15.77	16.83	83101411	Upward Expansion	90	86
2025-02-28	19.45	15.49	12.50	55933009	Upward Expansion	87	83
2025-02-21	18.44	15.26	8.47	43386866	Upward Expansion	78	79
2025-02-14	18.07	15.10	5.69	34140369	Upward Expansion	75	86
2025-02-07	17.45	14.96	5.95	43320791	Upward Expansion	67	85
2025-01-31	17.78	14.86	8.69	51431904	Upward Expansion	77	87
2025-01-24	17.88	14.76	11.40	29543370	Upward Expansion	86	87
2025-01-17	17.38	14.63	11.36	43969981	Upward Expansion	84	72
2025-01-10	16.05	14.50	6.82	39050077	Upward Expansion	65	45
2025-01-03	15.93	14.42	8.04	13654277	Upward Expansion	66	58
2024-12-27	15.52	14.36	5.15	7042477	Upward Expansion	58	61
2024-12-20	15.25	14.32	4.16	31665914	Upward Expansion	59	60
2024-12-13	16.02	14.31	6.83	22705878	Upward Expansion	74	68
2024-12-06	15.82	14.26	5.98	40800574	Deceleration	71	49
2024-11-29	15.09	14.22	5.35	33602412	Deceleration	46	26
2024-11-22	14.60	14.18	3.88	31035485	Upward Expansion	40	24
2024-11-15	15.08	14.19	8.25	30361874	Upward Expansion	59	33
2024-11-08	14.57	14.15	5.00	41631202	Upward Expansion	54	34
2024-11-01	14.85	14.11	7.14	27122123	Upward Expansion	60	58
2024-10-25	14.71	14.06	5.42	36020535	Upward Expansion	62	65
2024-10-18	15.21	14.02	8.25	33322863	Upward Expansion	68	69
2024-10-11	15.26	13.94	10.73	32043353	Upward Expansion	73	67
2024-10-04	14.81	13.85	9.42	33201500	Balance	57	52
2024-09-27	14.60	13.74	6.43	25905332	Balance	54	36
2024-09-20	14.24	13.64	8.35	33666994	Balance	19	19
2024-09-13	13.73	13.54	5.09	35382306	Balance	5	13
2024-09-06	13.77	13.45	8.10	28346220	Balance	20	15
2024-08-30	13.84	13.34	5.78	15385575	Rotation Down	13	12
2024-08-23	13.80	13.27	7.43	23553096	Rotation Down	-15	31
2024-08-16	13.18	13.18	4.83	20395456	Rotation Down	-21	43
2024-08-09	12.48	13.10	3.01	33868085	Deceleration	-33	46
2024-08-02	12.37	13.05	2.83	34019426	Deceleration	-15	20
2024-07-26	13.53	13.02	8.30	51189695	Deceleration	21	19
2024-07-19	14.09	12.94	14.84	20086617	Deceleration	50	34
2024-07-12	14.37	12.85	14.14	23152754	Deceleration	54	33
2024-07-05	14.70	12.74	19.31	26710552	Deceleration	51	27
2024-06-28	13.99	12.61	15.89	21518547	Deceleration	35	23
2024-06-21	13.57	12.49	13.60	40266366	Deceleration	39	24
2024-06-14	13.53	12.37	14.99	41731493	Upward Expansion	47	38
2024-06-07	14.36	12.26	19.15	29585523	Upward Expansion	61	54
2024-05-31	14.29	12.10	19.73	34809190	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-05-24	14.76	11.95	23.13	26140071	Upward Expansion	72	66
2024-05-17	14.68	11.78	23.24	32485563	Upward Expansion	74	69
2024-05-10	14.48	11.58	22.02	31496386	Upward Expansion	74	69
2024-05-03	13.92	11.40	23.17	55945030	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-04-26	15.08	11.24	33.26	70364615	Upward Expansion	93	90
2024-04-19	13.64	11.05	24.48	42358469	Upward Expansion	76	88
2024-04-12	13.49	10.91	22.61	43932311	Upward Expansion	76	91
2024-04-05	13.46	10.77	21.49	30935980	Upward Expansion	83	93
2024-03-29	13.30	10.61	18.72	30035942	Upward Expansion	88	94
2024-03-22	12.93	10.48	17.96	44101974	Upward Expansion	88	90
2024-03-15	12.43	10.35	15.85	70432286	Upward Expansion	84	78
2024-03-08	11.68	10.23	10.07	42392196	Deceleration	71	49
2024-03-01	11.46	10.15	8.66	35527296	Deceleration	64	39
2024-02-23	11.30	10.07	9.03	31850827	Deceleration	53	37
2024-02-16	10.93	10.00	7.27	34496626	Deceleration	42	33
2024-02-09	10.58	9.95	4.89	51238446	Upward Expansion	45	34
2024-02-02	11.70	9.89	15.92	65453659	Upward Expansion	80	59
2024-01-26	11.02	9.78	9.02	29379679	Upward Expansion	52	49
2024-01-19	10.77	9.70	8.97	29206781	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-01-12	10.99	9.62	9.98	48685578	Upward Expansion	67	74
2024-01-05	11.46	9.54	15.37	35851895	Upward Expansion	79	91
2023-12-29	11.28	9.46	12.39	10203075	Upward Expansion	77	90
2023-12-22	11.29	9.39	12.85	36660519	Upward Expansion	83	92
2023-12-15	11.04	9.31	9.99	59563267	Upward Expansion	83	90
2023-12-08	10.78	9.23	7.53	43372648	Upward Expansion	83	86
2023-12-01	10.51	9.16	7.14	39933513	Upward Expansion	80	80
2023-11-24	10.13	9.09	5.73	30744530	Upward Expansion	70	74
2023-11-17	10.19	9.05	7.14	62881242	Upward Expansion	76	72
2023-11-10	9.57	9.00	5.23	34768163	Upward Expansion	56	41
2023-11-03	9.72	8.97	7.17	45052674	Balance	63	31
2023-10-27	9.49	8.93	8.20	79777198	Balance	46	19
2023-10-20	8.69	8.89	-1.70	54476761	Balance	16	8

Price vs TrendAbove+1.0%

Trend directionRising+3.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+40.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-21.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-6.2%

Price momentumPositive+11.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.13×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

3 / ±100

-67.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

24 /100

-58.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

DBK Directional State ↗ DBK Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance50

Rotation Up18

Upward Expansion58

Deceleration88

Rotation Down46

Downward Expansion24

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 63%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 8%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-10-02	Developing	-5.9%
Rotation Up	2026-06-26	2026-07-31	Developing	+7.6%
Balance	2026-06-12	2026-06-19	New	+8.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-06-05	Developing	+15.2%
Balance	2026-02-20	2026-03-13	New	-17.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-02-13	Established	+0.7%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-14	Developing	+11.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-09	2025-10-10	Established	+27.9%
Deceleration	2025-04-18	2025-05-02	New	+13.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-04-11	Established	+13.1%
Deceleration	2024-11-29	2024-12-06	New	+4.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-11	2024-11-22	Developing	-4.3%
Balance	2024-09-06	2024-10-04	Developing	+7.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing21

Stage 2 · Advancing66

Stage 3 · Distribution77

Stage 4 · Declining34

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 61/100
Current Relative Strength: -1.03
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +11.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +6.5%
Financial Services regime cohort: 50th percentile30 in cohort

Test DBK trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.09×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.13×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore DBK Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 31.31falling

Slow Activity EUR 31.24rising

Trend Reference EUR 29.64+1.0% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 21.28+40.6% close margin

Structural low EUR 24.89shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.4%

Annualized volatility +29.5%

From structural high -16.5%

From structural low +30.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+2.4%-19.8% to +20.7%	+61.5%	+61.5%	+1.3%	+30.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+13.0%-12.9% to +34.3%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+11.5%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+9.3%-16.0% to +55.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+5.4%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+27.4%-20.2% to +69.7%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+12.3%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

DBK Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map