Weekly structural research · EBS · Communication Services

HLEE Stage Analysis

Highlight Event and Entertainment AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CHF 4.34Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^SSMI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -80−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 79/100directional strength

Maturity 35/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -43.2%CHF 7.64 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	4.34	5.73	-33.58	985	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2026-09-25	4.90	5.80	-27.54	483	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2026-09-18	4.94	5.87	-26.85	10206	Downward Expansion	-66	43
2026-09-11	5.25	5.91	-22.86	1994	Downward Expansion	-63	30
2026-09-04	5.65	5.94	-21.33	186	Downward Expansion	-35	15
2026-08-28	5.95	5.99	-17.90	398	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2026-08-21	5.70	6.03	-22.50	21	Downward Expansion	-50	45
2026-08-14	5.80	6.05	-21.30	4	Downward Expansion	-48	43
2026-08-07	5.05	6.08	-32.53	0	Balance	-69	52
2026-07-31	5.55	6.14	-25.58	0	Balance	-44	18
2026-07-24	6.00	6.21	-20.13	0	Balance	-15	11
2026-07-17	6.00	6.28	-20.51	355	Downward Expansion	-28	14
2026-07-10	6.05	6.33	-19.42	42	Downward Expansion	-29	13
2026-07-03	6.05	6.38	-20.70	11	Downward Expansion	-34	16
2026-06-26	5.35	6.43	-29.06	10	Downward Expansion	-60	36
2026-06-19	6.20	6.51	-16.03	689	Downward Expansion	-39	20
2026-06-12	6.15	6.58	-16.89	517	Downward Expansion	-50	28
2026-06-05	5.00	6.64	-31.14	68	Downward Expansion	-67	39
2026-05-29	5.90	6.73	-20.23	2090	Downward Expansion	-40	21
2026-05-22	5.80	6.78	-21.86	1380	Downward Expansion	-52	26
2026-05-15	6.30	6.83	-13.79	187	Downward Expansion	-48	26
2026-05-08	5.80	6.86	-20.16	2819	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2026-05-01	6.00	6.93	-17.98	125	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2026-04-24	5.75	7.01	-21.79	268	Downward Expansion	-57	35
2026-04-17	5.75	7.06	-23.69	1038	Downward Expansion	-59	34
2026-04-10	6.40	7.10	-13.78	561	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2026-04-03	5.70	7.14	-22.17	605	Downward Expansion	-63	41
2026-03-27	6.40	7.21	-10.25	7386	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2026-03-20	6.00	7.28	-14.45	1468	Downward Expansion	-64	39
2026-03-13	6.15	7.31	-16.20	1958	Downward Expansion	-62	38
2026-03-06	6.40	7.32	-14.70	1904	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2026-02-27	7.05	7.35	-12.55	318	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2026-02-20	6.25	7.36	-21.98	401	Downward Expansion	-67	56
2026-02-13	6.20	7.36	-21.50	1010	Rotation Down	-73	63
2026-02-06	7.05	7.35	-10.34	2595	Rotation Down	-28	42
2026-01-30	7.05	7.31	-9.47	163	Rotation Down	-29	48
2026-01-23	6.35	7.31	-18.62	225	Rotation Down	-44	52
2026-01-16	6.80	7.33	-15.16	1174	Balance	-24	28
2026-01-09	6.80	7.36	-15.75	1357	Balance	-5	9
2026-01-02	7.55	7.37	-5.38	12	Upward Expansion	27	12
2025-12-26	8.30	7.35	4.12	27	Upward Expansion	48	20
2025-12-19	7.25	7.33	-8.34	2097	Upward Expansion	19	12
2025-12-12	7.60	7.33	-1.83	130	Upward Expansion	46	27
2025-12-05	7.60	7.31	-1.75	9	Upward Expansion	49	38
2025-11-28	7.80	7.28	1.49	3613	Upward Expansion	51	44
2025-11-21	8.15	7.24	8.08	847	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-11-14	8.00	7.20	6.18	4184	Upward Expansion	53	24
2025-11-07	7.85	7.14	7.68	1528	Upward Expansion	41	18
2025-10-31	7.30	7.08	1.35	496	Upward Expansion	32	14
2025-10-24	7.25	7.07	-1.49	0	Upward Expansion	35	21
2025-10-17	7.30	7.09	-1.10	1233	Upward Expansion	46	24
2025-10-10	7.95	7.11	9.38	0	Rotation Up	52	26
2025-10-03	8.25	7.08	13.78	1838	Rotation Up	58	28
2025-09-26	7.25	7.07	5.42	1101	Rotation Up	46	22
2025-09-19	7.00	7.11	0.66	4681	Rotation Up	20	29
2025-09-12	7.70	7.13	9.70	2145	Rotation Up	26	35
2025-09-05	7.70	7.18	8.23	739	Rotation Up	27	33
2025-08-29	8.50	7.25	21.13	5661	Downward Expansion	31	24
2025-08-22	7.00	7.26	-0.68	18	Downward Expansion	-23	15
2025-08-15	6.40	7.31	-8.08	202	Downward Expansion	-36	16
2025-08-08	7.35	7.38	6.84	403	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2025-08-01	7.35	7.33	6.94	66	Downward Expansion	-43	40
2025-07-25	6.20	7.32	-10.74	1443	Downward Expansion	-55	58
2025-07-18	5.75	7.32	-17.83	318	Balance	-68	61
2025-07-11	6.00	7.35	-14.49	107	Balance	-62	40
2025-07-04	7.00	7.32	-1.36	47	Balance	-30	12
2025-06-27	7.00	7.34	-1.60	178	Balance	-19	9
2025-06-20	7.65	7.30	8.11	124	Balance	21	13
2025-06-13	7.05	7.29	-2.43	52	Balance	1	6
2025-06-06	7.05	7.22	-4.16	1039	Balance	-0	7
2025-05-30	7.60	7.16	4.76	5355	Balance	5	8
2025-05-23	7.20	7.08	-0.13	76	Deceleration	-10	9
2025-05-16	7.00	7.03	-4.03	1312	Deceleration	-13	12
2025-05-09	6.80	7.01	-4.88	685	Balance	-18	30
2025-05-02	6.50	6.98	-10.53	185	Balance	-19	36
2025-04-25	7.05	6.96	-1.03	17	Balance	-15	27
2025-04-18	6.10	6.93	-12.97	329	Balance	-25	29
2025-04-11	6.10	6.98	-10.65	681	Balance	-5	12
2025-04-04	7.00	7.02	-2.00	1552	Balance	17	13
2025-03-28	7.85	7.05	-1.02	41	Balance	27	16
2025-03-21	8.00	7.05	-1.65	241	Balance	29	16
2025-03-14	7.05	7.06	-12.93	220	Upward Expansion	26	17
2025-03-07	8.00	7.11	-3.19	3183	Upward Expansion	38	21
2025-02-28	8.35	7.11	1.01	1539	Upward Expansion	52	33
2025-02-21	7.70	7.08	-6.95	3651	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-02-14	9.00	7.10	8.53	2286	Rotation Up	57	60
2025-02-07	9.90	7.08	21.21	9355	Rotation Up	45	61
2025-01-31	8.75	7.06	6.74	616	Rotation Up	30	50
2025-01-24	8.50	7.02	5.69	336	Rotation Up	29	42
2025-01-17	8.45	7.02	6.87	894	Balance	27	25
2025-01-10	6.00	6.97	-23.37	526	Balance	-22	11
2025-01-03	6.95	7.00	-10.94	266	Balance	-11	8
2024-12-27	6.40	6.97	-19.05	0	Downward Expansion	-27	14
2024-12-20	6.40	6.96	-18.98	1295	Downward Expansion	-29	14
2024-12-13	5.20	6.99	-36.81	17	Downward Expansion	-43	24
2024-12-06	7.45	7.04	-11.25	329	Downward Expansion	-17	16
2024-11-29	6.00	7.05	-29.45	327	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2024-11-22	7.20	7.12	-16.52	77	Downward Expansion	-48	37
2024-11-15	5.20	7.19	-39.81	873	Downward Expansion	-68	72
2024-11-08	5.05	7.34	-43.56	58	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2024-11-01	5.20	7.49	-43.89	2887	Downward Expansion	-73	66
2024-10-25	5.85	7.64	-39.06	477	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2024-10-18	6.20	7.77	-37.43	508	Downward Expansion	-62	70
2024-10-11	6.10	7.90	-38.69	541	Downward Expansion	-65	68
2024-10-04	5.90	8.01	-40.94	4157	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2024-09-27	6.00	8.12	-41.86	1755	Balance	-72	58
2024-09-20	7.75	8.24	-24.31	1	Balance	-32	19
2024-09-13	7.30	8.34	-30.20	24	Balance	-39	19
2024-09-06	7.80	8.42	-25.47	357	Balance	-27	11
2024-08-30	7.95	8.49	-28.02	1276	Balance	-23	11
2024-08-23	8.35	8.56	-24.43	626	Balance	-21	11
2024-08-16	8.40	8.64	-23.53	1	Balance	-20	10
2024-08-09	7.95	8.71	-26.21	962	Balance	-18	10
2024-08-02	7.55	8.78	-30.57	1387	Balance	-20	16
2024-07-26	8.25	8.96	-27.06	0	Balance	-11	18
2024-07-19	8.25	9.12	-27.22	402	Downward Expansion	-20	24
2024-07-12	9.40	9.24	-18.94	97	Downward Expansion	-7	20
2024-07-05	7.70	9.26	-32.00	51	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2024-06-28	8.40	9.44	-26.31	1826	Downward Expansion	-48	40
2024-06-21	7.00	9.59	-39.18	34336	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-06-14	7.00	9.71	-39.87	1403	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2024-06-07	6.00	9.93	-49.84	2448	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2024-05-31	6.00	10.17	-49.39	3514	Downward Expansion	-93	97
2024-05-24	7.25	10.37	-39.29	2143	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2024-05-17	6.90	10.58	-43.34	8537	Downward Expansion	-93	96
2024-05-10	7.50	10.79	-37.47	5951	Downward Expansion	-90	90
2024-05-03	8.10	10.98	-30.37	5142	Downward Expansion	-88	83
2024-04-26	9.40	11.10	-20.45	247	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2024-04-19	9.60	11.24	-18.92	63	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2024-04-12	9.60	11.36	-20.22	699	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2024-04-05	9.60	11.46	-21.51	2499	Downward Expansion	-53	29
2024-03-29	9.90	11.56	-21.45	2405	Downward Expansion	-50	31
2024-03-22	10.00	11.60	-20.75	17	Downward Expansion	-53	39
2024-03-15	9.45	11.63	-25.73	2385	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2024-03-08	9.40	11.69	-26.42	194	Downward Expansion	-58	35
2024-03-01	9.40	11.77	-26.20	460	Downward Expansion	-58	36
2024-02-23	10.90	11.85	-15.60	2101	Downward Expansion	-53	38
2024-02-16	9.50	11.89	-25.83	406	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2024-02-09	10.00	11.95	-21.28	64	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2024-02-02	10.00	12.00	-23.04	290	Balance	-54	48
2024-01-26	10.80	12.04	-18.82	1495	Balance	-46	34
2024-01-19	10.50	12.09	-20.07	1315	Balance	-22	16
2024-01-12	10.00	12.12	-25.00	877	Balance	-16	9
2024-01-05	13.00	12.20	-2.88	294	Balance	35	15
2023-12-29	12.90	12.18	-3.83	331	Balance	3	6
2023-12-22	12.00	12.20	-11.36	1098	Balance	-3	10
2023-12-15	10.10	12.24	-25.95	13888	Balance	-17	15
2023-12-08	13.00	12.31	-4.96	463	Balance	33	14
2023-12-01	13.00	12.35	-4.30	959	Balance	33	14
2023-11-24	10.60	12.39	-22.63	300	Balance	-14	10
2023-11-17	13.40	12.48	-2.26	50	Balance	23	14
2023-11-10	13.30	12.54	-2.20	1724	Balance	20	13
2023-11-03	12.00	12.54	-12.83	233	Balance	4	8
2023-10-27	13.50	12.66	-0.81	893	Balance	28	19
2023-10-20	13.20	12.69	-4.39	236	Balance	17	16
2023-10-13	13.39	12.67	-8.89	82	Balance	23	21

Price vs TrendBelow-24.2%

Trend directionFalling-7.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-43.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-17.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-33.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-12.9%

Price momentumNegative-23.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.03×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-80 / ±100

-44.4 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

79 /100

+63.4 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HLEE Directional State ↗ HLEE Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance8

Rotation Up12

Upward Expansion19

Deceleration34

Rotation Down80

Downward Expansion92

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 33%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 10%Deceleration 1%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 47%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-10-02	Developing	-25.2%
Balance	2026-07-24	2026-08-07	New	-15.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-07-17	Established	-4.0%
Rotation Down	2026-01-23	2026-02-13	New	-2.4%
Balance	2026-01-09	2026-01-16	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-17	2026-01-02	Developing	+3.4%
Rotation Up	2025-09-05	2025-10-10	Developing	+3.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-08-29	Developing	+37.1%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-07-18	Developing	-24.3%
Deceleration	2025-05-16	2025-05-23	New	+2.9%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-05-09	Developing	-15.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	-8.4%
Rotation Up	2025-01-24	2025-02-14	New	+5.9%
Balance	2025-01-03	2025-01-17	New	+21.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing47

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution24

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SSMI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -33.58
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -23.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -29.1%
Communication Services regime cohort: 50th percentile2 in cohort

Test HLEE trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.01×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.03×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HLEE Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CHF 4.82falling

Slow Activity CHF 5.56falling

Trend Reference CHF 5.73-24.2% close margin

Current Fair Value CHF 7.64-43.2% close margin

Structural low CHF 3.82shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +13.7%

Annualized volatility +64.7%

From structural high -56.4%

From structural low +44.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^SSMI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	39	-2.4%-25.9% to +40.0%	+35.9%	+59.0%	-3.9%	+82.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	-5.6%-29.8% to +18.7%	+30.8%	+69.2%	-4.6%	+61.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	-3.2%-41.6% to +18.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-10.3%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-7.2%-34.5% to -1.0%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-18.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HLEE Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map