Weekly structural research · ASX · Basic Materials

MMI Stage Analysis

Metro Mining Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 1.18Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Structural failure

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -76−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 75/100directional strength

Maturity 22/100lifecycle context

Confidence 85/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +6.2%AUD 1.11 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.18	1.40	-14.60	3044290	Rotation Down	-76	75
2026-10-02	1.20	1.40	-13.47	1387135	Rotation Down	-49	59
2026-09-25	1.28	1.41	-8.20	4112947	Rotation Down	-41	55
2026-09-18	1.30	1.41	-7.85	1581687	Rotation Down	-30	50
2026-09-11	1.33	1.41	-6.83	1580019	Rotation Down	-24	43
2026-09-04	1.30	1.41	-11.70	386828	Balance	-32	37
2026-08-28	1.38	1.41	-7.95	543000	Balance	-0	7
2026-08-21	1.40	1.41	-6.80	378623	Balance	2	7
2026-08-14	1.42	1.41	-5.55	178156	Upward Expansion	16	17
2026-08-07	1.58	1.41	3.31	513138	Upward Expansion	33	27
2026-07-31	1.41	1.40	-5.07	475928	Upward Expansion	18	24
2026-07-24	1.36	1.40	-6.70	2456052	Upward Expansion	21	15
2026-07-17	1.34	1.41	-8.06	807290	Upward Expansion	42	33
2026-07-10	1.60	1.41	9.88	892592	Upward Expansion	65	76
2026-07-03	1.74	1.40	18.93	422741	Upward Expansion	79	84
2026-06-26	1.74	1.39	20.18	3029295	Upward Expansion	82	81
2026-06-19	1.64	1.38	12.99	667181	Balance	76	71
2026-06-12	1.48	1.37	3.02	486490	Balance	29	42
2026-06-05	1.52	1.37	8.26	4457648	Balance	24	27
2026-05-29	1.51	1.37	6.53	893032	Balance	21	14
2026-05-22	1.30	1.36	-7.16	1971262	Balance	-44	27
2026-05-15	1.36	1.37	-2.00	5261933	Balance	-41	29
2026-05-08	1.27	1.37	-9.54	1896535	Balance	-49	39
2026-05-01	1.20	1.39	-13.86	2245971	Balance	-58	32
2026-04-24	1.30	1.41	-7.56	2504106	Balance	-37	15
2026-04-17	1.36	1.43	-4.72	1818688	Balance	-28	14
2026-04-10	1.38	1.44	-3.03	1432814	Downward Expansion	-32	16
2026-04-03	1.36	1.45	0.12	2635647	Downward Expansion	-45	23
2026-03-27	1.38	1.46	2.60	3534857	Downward Expansion	-46	24
2026-03-20	1.22	1.47	-8.18	5908560	Downward Expansion	-63	32
2026-03-13	1.34	1.48	-1.46	1865052	Downward Expansion	-39	19
2026-03-06	1.36	1.48	-2.62	2962300	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2026-02-27	1.42	1.48	-1.95	3002309	Downward Expansion	-53	36
2026-02-20	1.32	1.48	-7.37	1531105	Downward Expansion	-59	63
2026-02-13	1.30	1.49	-6.96	1704319	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2026-02-06	1.26	1.49	-7.62	4269893	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2026-01-30	1.34	1.49	-3.65	2889234	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2026-01-23	1.42	1.49	2.25	2764539	Downward Expansion	-47	26
2026-01-16	1.38	1.49	-0.85	3458993	Balance	-48	25
2026-01-09	1.40	1.49	2.96	2422408	Balance	-14	10
2026-01-02	1.50	1.48	10.53	1329210	Deceleration	-8	8
2025-12-26	1.44	1.48	6.04	764796	Deceleration	-15	15
2025-12-19	1.42	1.47	6.59	4898998	Deceleration	-27	24
2025-12-12	1.40	1.46	4.54	4636187	Rotation Down	-22	26
2025-12-05	1.44	1.44	8.63	2496314	Rotation Down	-21	31
2025-11-28	1.38	1.43	4.61	2194705	Rotation Down	-25	38
2025-11-21	1.36	1.42	5.66	5040516	Deceleration	-29	33
2025-11-14	1.44	1.41	9.40	7596828	Deceleration	-0	23
2025-11-07	1.42	1.39	6.87	4582330	Deceleration	4	27
2025-10-31	1.46	1.37	9.03	3347033	Deceleration	14	25
2025-10-24	1.46	1.36	7.88	5467379	Upward Expansion	27	21
2025-10-17	1.40	1.35	4.15	8702781	Upward Expansion	34	34
2025-10-10	1.78	1.34	33.40	3876600	Upward Expansion	66	80
2025-10-03	1.80	1.32	36.08	6549920	Upward Expansion	68	86
2025-09-26	1.88	1.30	47.22	3119640	Upward Expansion	84	92
2025-09-19	1.82	1.27	44.99	7744815	Upward Expansion	85	87
2025-09-12	1.72	1.25	37.74	3805464	Upward Expansion	83	83
2025-09-05	1.64	1.23	33.19	3519755	Upward Expansion	80	71
2025-08-29	1.52	1.22	23.63	2290524	Upward Expansion	70	60
2025-08-22	1.52	1.21	25.12	1846851	Upward Expansion	74	57
2025-08-15	1.44	1.20	20.15	1747142	Upward Expansion	65	47
2025-08-08	1.44	1.19	22.84	3829004	Upward Expansion	68	55
2025-08-01	1.40	1.18	22.59	3272014	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-07-25	1.40	1.17	23.35	4042678	Upward Expansion	66	64
2025-07-18	1.42	1.17	24.65	1413615	Upward Expansion	73	69
2025-07-11	1.36	1.16	22.51	1889752	Upward Expansion	68	65
2025-07-04	1.38	1.15	24.45	4092037	Rotation Up	73	69
2025-06-27	1.32	1.14	20.73	2273448	Rotation Up	43	60
2025-06-20	1.26	1.14	15.95	2217576	Rotation Up	26	50
2025-06-13	1.26	1.14	15.95	2661619	Balance	27	36
2025-06-06	1.30	1.13	20.64	2982755	Balance	31	27
2025-05-30	1.20	1.12	12.91	3051428	Balance	-11	12
2025-05-23	1.10	1.11	4.62	3113468	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2025-05-16	0.96	1.11	-8.19	2368439	Downward Expansion	-61	35
2025-05-09	1.06	1.12	2.84	2462979	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2025-05-02	1.06	1.11	3.12	2825545	Rotation Down	-57	62
2025-04-25	0.96	1.10	-3.21	1278935	Rotation Down	-33	58
2025-04-18	0.90	1.10	-7.43	1484979	Balance	-43	54
2025-04-11	0.98	1.09	3.10	5574469	Balance	-25	22
2025-04-04	1.06	1.08	11.51	3023916	Balance	4	7
2025-03-28	1.17	1.07	18.70	1935167	Balance	31	17
2025-03-21	1.22	1.06	25.55	2331425	Balance	27	15
2025-03-14	1.20	1.04	27.11	2792590	Balance	20	20
2025-03-07	1.08	1.03	13.53	2093991	Balance	5	16
2025-02-28	1.04	1.02	7.39	3942393	Upward Expansion	19	12
2025-02-21	1.10	1.02	12.85	2767814	Upward Expansion	51	36
2025-02-14	1.22	1.01	22.61	3218308	Upward Expansion	58	46
2025-02-07	1.32	1.00	35.14	2351815	Upward Expansion	76	61
2025-01-31	1.26	0.9953	30.70	1718606	Upward Expansion	71	45
2025-01-24	1.16	0.9887	24.00	2118819	Deceleration	46	34
2025-01-17	1.14	0.9813	25.09	2274228	Deceleration	45	35
2025-01-10	1.12	0.9733	24.84	1958820	Upward Expansion	45	33
2025-01-03	1.20	0.966	36.32	1621862	Upward Expansion	66	44
2024-12-27	1.16	0.9587	33.75	1001503	Upward Expansion	61	47
2024-12-20	1.10	0.9533	31.95	1625526	Upward Expansion	62	64
2024-12-13	1.14	0.9447	35.09	2928888	Upward Expansion	63	75
2024-12-06	1.24	0.9353	47.09	11728338	Upward Expansion	77	82
2024-11-29	1.26	0.9213	51.95	47444772	Upward Expansion	86	80
2024-11-22	1.14	0.908	40.81	4239501	Upward Expansion	78	67
2024-11-15	0.98	0.8987	24.59	2563594	Upward Expansion	61	65
2024-11-08	1.02	0.8947	31.16	5632829	Rotation Up	54	70
2024-11-01	1.04	0.8893	38.58	3774640	Rotation Up	39	61
2024-10-25	1.06	0.884	41.83	1379873	Balance	36	47
2024-10-18	1.08	0.874	45.51	7077964	Balance	25	28
2024-10-11	0.88	0.86	21.44	991287	Deceleration	-26	18
2024-10-04	0.84	0.85	18.06	2067821	Deceleration	-14	15
2024-09-27	0.80	0.8413	12.65	2066833	Rotation Down	-28	26
2024-09-20	0.76	0.834	7.96	3858544	Rotation Down	-32	47
2024-09-13	0.70	0.8267	1.47	3509586	Rotation Down	-41	56
2024-09-06	0.74	0.8193	9.00	2828941	Rotation Down	-25	45
2024-08-30	0.72	0.8107	5.70	4239917	Balance	-30	33
2024-08-23	0.78	0.8013	16.31	1677636	Balance	-3	19
2024-08-16	0.88	0.7893	33.26	2760240	Balance	13	18
2024-08-09	0.76	0.7747	19.30	6587870	Upward Expansion	9	13
2024-08-02	0.92	0.764	42.67	2502846	Upward Expansion	43	30
2024-07-26	0.92	0.7473	44.98	5006841	Upward Expansion	57	43
2024-07-19	1.00	0.7307	58.55	3784617	Upward Expansion	60	51
2024-07-12	1.06	0.7103	70.69	3927788	Upward Expansion	74	57
2024-07-05	1.06	0.6883	76.86	5495797	Upward Expansion	78	56
2024-06-28	0.94	0.6657	61.01	2412020	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-06-21	0.90	0.647	55.98	1700581	Upward Expansion	60	52
2024-06-14	0.90	0.6303	59.89	2522883	Upward Expansion	61	54
2024-06-07	0.98	0.6137	73.78	4833355	Upward Expansion	73	62
2024-05-31	1.00	0.5937	84.36	6655792	Upward Expansion	82	63
2024-05-24	0.84	0.573	57.52	2951754	Upward Expansion	61	53
2024-05-17	0.86	0.5577	61.86	3112669	Upward Expansion	66	59
2024-05-10	0.82	0.5423	58.22	4078716	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-05-03	0.86	0.529	71.46	7687612	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-04-26	0.86	0.5143	76.04	1537680	Upward Expansion	71	88
2024-04-19	0.86	0.4997	79.83	1921214	Upward Expansion	76	91
2024-04-12	0.86	0.4857	78.69	1712609	Upward Expansion	86	94
2024-04-05	0.88	0.4723	87.09	2711749	Upward Expansion	96	97
2024-03-29	0.76	0.4583	63.05	5237667	Upward Expansion	93	93
2024-03-22	0.66	0.447	46.77	2916802	Upward Expansion	88	92
2024-03-15	0.58	0.439	32.76	2118362	Upward Expansion	74	86
2024-03-08	0.58	0.4343	31.35	1457763	Upward Expansion	80	87
2024-03-01	0.58	0.4297	35.19	1978892	Upward Expansion	86	87
2024-02-23	0.54	0.425	29.68	3274725	Rotation Up	84	79
2024-02-16	0.48	0.423	16.61	603233	Rotation Up	42	49
2024-02-09	0.48	0.4237	18.20	1613870	Balance	46	48
2024-02-02	0.44	0.4223	8.57	2356289	Balance	22	34
2024-01-26	0.42	0.4217	6.29	909351	Balance	17	30
2024-01-19	0.44	0.4223	13.79	763834	Balance	23	30
2024-01-12	0.44	0.421	13.19	3542705	Balance	20	19
2024-01-05	0.42	0.4203	8.67	1208062	Downward Expansion	-20	14
2023-12-29	0.42	0.4197	7.77	321908	Downward Expansion	-27	13
2023-12-22	0.39	0.419	1.86	417009	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2023-12-15	0.40	0.4193	5.69	517977	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2023-12-08	0.38	0.4187	4.38	610093	Downward Expansion	-55	30
2023-12-01	0.38	0.4173	6.52	905909	Rotation Down	-57	31
2023-11-24	0.40	0.416	13.07	2897269	Rotation Down	-26	22
2023-11-17	0.40	0.414	13.36	794531	Rotation Down	-31	41
2023-11-10	0.38	0.4107	9.09	2210681	Rotation Down	-36	51
2023-11-03	0.38	0.4087	9.35	1604586	Rotation Down	-29	43
2023-10-27	0.38	0.4047	12.00	1218248	Deceleration	-30	33
2023-10-20	0.40	0.4007	17.29	2685906	Deceleration	-2	13

Price vs TrendBelow-15.4%

Trend directionFalling-0.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+6.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-48.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-14.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-24.5%

Price momentumNegative-14.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.40×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-76 / ±100

-51.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

75 /100

+31.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MMI Directional State ↗ MMI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance10

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion16

Deceleration38

Rotation Down78

Downward Expansion94

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 40%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 12%Downward Expansion 13%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-11	2026-10-09	Developing	-11.3%
Balance	2026-08-21	2026-09-04	New	-6.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-08-14	Developing	-17.9%
Balance	2026-04-17	2026-06-19	Developing	+20.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-04-10	Developing	-2.8%
Balance	2026-01-09	2026-01-16	New	-1.4%
Deceleration	2025-12-19	2026-01-02	New	+5.6%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2025-12-12	New	+1.4%
Deceleration	2025-10-31	2025-11-21	New	-6.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-10-24	Established	+7.4%
Rotation Up	2025-06-20	2025-07-04	New	+9.5%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-06-13	New	+5.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-09	2025-05-23	New	+3.8%
Rotation Down	2025-04-25	2025-05-02	New	+10.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing2

Stage 3 · Distribution55

Stage 4 · Declining98

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: -14.60
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -14.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.8%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 100th percentile20 in cohort

Test MMI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.15×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.40×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MMI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 1.23falling

Slow Activity AUD 1.39falling

Trend Reference AUD 1.40-15.4% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 1.11+6.2% close margin

Structural low AUD 1.14shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +9.8%

Annualized volatility +50.8%

From structural high -33.5%

From structural low +3.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	8	+7.4%-14.3% to +22.2%	+62.5%	+25.0%	+2.9%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+15.8%-14.3% to +67.6%	+80.0%	+20.0%	+5.5%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+45.9%-23.8% to +126.3%	+80.0%	+20.0%	+38.9%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+35.4%-4.8% to +173.7%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+25.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MMI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map