Weekly structural research · ASX · Basic Materials

FFM Stage Analysis

FireFly Metals Ltd

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close AUD 1.72Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and expanding.

Direction -54−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 36/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 87/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +44.9%AUD 1.19 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	1.72	1.85	-5.15	17847703	Balance	-54	36
2026-09-18	1.80	1.87	-1.38	19823878	Balance	-42	20
2026-09-11	1.74	1.87	-4.18	29069131	Balance	-38	17
2026-09-04	1.85	1.87	-0.26	23689922	Balance	-1	11
2026-08-28	1.90	1.87	2.37	18106701	Balance	1	13
2026-08-21	1.90	1.88	3.17	1945218	Downward Expansion	-21	17
2026-08-14	1.86	1.88	1.11	2961624	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2026-08-07	1.90	1.89	2.32	2037337	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2026-07-31	1.75	1.89	-1.97	2438855	Downward Expansion	-54	52
2026-07-24	1.65	1.90	-4.72	2301436	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2026-07-17	1.66	1.91	-4.18	2840704	Balance	-64	53
2026-07-10	1.80	1.92	4.70	1459069	Balance	-51	37
2026-07-03	1.92	1.93	12.07	2741910	Balance	-43	26
2026-06-26	1.67	1.93	-0.76	4193342	Balance	-59	32
2026-06-19	1.89	1.93	12.26	28144983	Balance	-3	3
2026-06-12	1.90	1.92	14.48	3025099	Balance	30	14
2026-06-05	1.98	1.92	22.62	18063098	Balance	44	25
2026-05-29	2.04	1.91	26.20	6936767	Balance	48	25
2026-05-22	1.98	1.90	24.90	18763445	Balance	33	15
2026-05-15	2.09	1.89	33.79	13833919	Balance	44	25
2026-05-08	1.92	1.87	23.32	20379389	Balance	35	22
2026-05-01	1.80	1.85	17.22	46751789	Balance	29	24
2026-04-24	2.09	1.84	36.47	19521548	Balance	44	31
2026-04-17	2.10	1.81	36.75	20638378	Balance	42	21
2026-04-10	2.09	1.78	37.92	21374873	Rotation Down	25	17
2026-04-03	1.70	1.75	18.56	13074265	Rotation Down	-16	35
2026-03-27	1.64	1.74	16.81	24045051	Deceleration	-21	28
2026-03-20	1.58	1.73	14.19	58944050	Deceleration	-7	11
2026-03-13	1.76	1.71	25.28	20352334	Deceleration	10	7
2026-03-06	1.89	1.69	32.56	15594662	Deceleration	34	17
2026-02-27	2.15	1.67	46.65	54444571	Deceleration	52	24
2026-02-20	1.87	1.63	31.01	17777708	Deceleration	32	19
2026-02-13	1.82	1.61	30.88	23331568	Deceleration	37	22
2026-02-06	1.78	1.58	32.43	25822651	Upward Expansion	43	30
2026-01-30	2.10	1.56	55.73	17009220	Upward Expansion	64	45
2026-01-23	2.08	1.53	56.95	16497990	Upward Expansion	65	46
2026-01-16	1.98	1.49	50.77	29556807	Upward Expansion	60	48
2026-01-09	1.92	1.46	51.77	16796285	Upward Expansion	63	52
2026-01-02	2.06	1.43	64.91	13980663	Upward Expansion	68	69
2025-12-26	2.11	1.40	71.23	18171911	Upward Expansion	76	70
2025-12-19	2.02	1.36	69.63	21970829	Upward Expansion	74	60
2025-12-12	2.00	1.33	69.35	25392222	Upward Expansion	76	58
2025-12-05	1.80	1.29	55.81	12677629	Upward Expansion	65	53
2025-11-28	1.87	1.26	64.28	10287236	Upward Expansion	75	58
2025-11-21	1.63	1.23	48.46	11412227	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-11-14	1.78	1.20	59.31	12310770	Upward Expansion	73	82
2025-11-07	1.62	1.17	44.57	27077841	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-10-31	1.90	1.14	68.35	30539864	Upward Expansion	94	95
2025-10-24	1.60	1.11	40.73	16282367	Upward Expansion	81	80
2025-10-17	1.60	1.09	42.52	23742776	Upward Expansion	87	76
2025-10-10	1.33	1.07	19.50	14156401	Upward Expansion	66	50
2025-10-03	1.28	1.06	14.61	16144911	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-09-26	1.36	1.05	25.75	21723278	Upward Expansion	78	55
2025-09-19	1.20	1.03	11.64	45391589	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-09-12	1.21	1.03	11.05	11158002	Upward Expansion	61	65
2025-09-05	1.23	1.02	13.16	10774033	Upward Expansion	67	72
2025-08-29	1.24	1.01	13.43	7862685	Upward Expansion	74	67
2025-08-22	1.20	0.9993	9.75	8538917	Upward Expansion	68	44
2025-08-15	1.18	0.9895	9.43	10418377	Upward Expansion	70	42
2025-08-08	1.08	0.9825	2.21	8965218	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-08-01	1.03	0.9787	-0.89	5969230	Upward Expansion	57	38
2025-07-25	1.15	0.9735	10.93	7228392	Upward Expansion	70	64
2025-07-18	1.14	0.9657	8.82	9831799	Upward Expansion	71	58
2025-07-11	1.08	0.9582	6.18	11880826	Upward Expansion	63	57
2025-07-04	1.10	0.957	8.73	10936113	Upward Expansion	71	63
2025-06-27	1.04	0.9547	3.75	10757282	Rotation Up	60	57
2025-06-20	1.08	0.9563	7.81	11790730	Rotation Up	40	58
2025-06-13	1.06	0.9593	5.72	9019480	Rotation Up	37	50
2025-06-06	1.03	0.9578	4.22	4869181	Rotation Up	22	32
2025-05-30	1.09	0.9643	11.87	9590338	Downward Expansion	23	30
2025-05-23	0.99	0.9717	3.08	7380040	Downward Expansion	-16	14
2025-05-16	0.94	0.975	-1.59	10149794	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2025-05-09	0.905	0.9792	-3.89	12461562	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2025-05-02	0.785	0.9832	-16.78	6936167	Downward Expansion	-66	73
2025-04-25	0.815	0.9918	-10.78	15576778	Downward Expansion	-61	71
2025-04-18	0.81	1.00	-9.68	5432509	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2025-04-11	0.795	1.01	-9.24	15142784	Balance	-67	58
2025-04-04	0.81	1.01	-7.81	14514061	Balance	-54	28
2025-03-28	1.03	1.01	12.79	10703033	Balance	12	13
2025-03-21	1.04	1.01	15.34	10663304	Balance	-2	8
2025-03-14	0.985	1.01	11.97	6624157	Balance	-26	15
2025-03-07	0.99	1.00	11.25	3736329	Balance	-27	19
2025-02-28	0.975	0.9942	7.57	11151798	Balance	-5	9
2025-02-21	0.99	0.9882	8.64	4356191	Balance	-8	8
2025-02-14	1.03	0.9832	10.60	10552872	Deceleration	-4	10
2025-02-07	0.91	0.9755	-0.85	7221961	Deceleration	-30	23
2025-01-31	0.925	0.9728	1.40	4094937	Deceleration	-18	17
2025-01-24	0.90	0.9702	0.88	3535086	Deceleration	-23	22
2025-01-17	0.975	0.965	11.33	4323705	Rotation Down	-16	30
2025-01-10	0.97	0.9588	11.87	7580723	Rotation Down	-18	31
2025-01-03	0.875	0.949	2.27	5861186	Deceleration	-27	33
2024-12-27	0.915	0.9442	7.34	1863411	Deceleration	-2	19
2024-12-20	0.91	0.9382	9.90	15442430	Deceleration	8	15
2024-12-13	1.04	0.9332	23.42	16488290	Deceleration	35	18
2024-12-06	1.04	0.9265	21.71	7095332	Upward Expansion	38	22
2024-11-29	1.09	0.9218	29.17	7400416	Upward Expansion	55	34
2024-11-22	1.16	0.9117	40.30	10819465	Upward Expansion	64	49
2024-11-15	1.01	0.8993	24.73	13374223	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-11-08	1.22	0.89	52.46	10588240	Upward Expansion	73	68
2024-11-01	1.31	0.8765	69.23	21523895	Upward Expansion	88	67
2024-10-25	1.09	0.8578	41.87	8494436	Upward Expansion	70	55
2024-10-18	1.06	0.8457	39.27	7670669	Upward Expansion	68	65
2024-10-11	1.02	0.8338	36.96	8748522	Upward Expansion	64	76
2024-10-04	1.04	0.8192	42.64	12548860	Upward Expansion	70	80
2024-09-27	1.06	0.8025	46.33	8623453	Upward Expansion	78	76
2024-09-20	1.08	0.7835	50.45	11479691	Upward Expansion	85	78
2024-09-13	0.94	0.7648	34.47	6047056	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-09-06	0.82	0.7507	19.86	8447592	Upward Expansion	54	55
2024-08-30	0.95	0.7385	38.74	7063365	Upward Expansion	73	61
2024-08-23	0.955	0.7237	42.45	15603739	Upward Expansion	73	40
2024-08-16	0.80	0.7095	21.69	5203440	Upward Expansion	35	17
2024-08-09	0.735	0.701	15.59	11921197	Upward Expansion	29	16
2024-08-02	0.795	0.6948	23.38	12070679	Upward Expansion	51	37
2024-07-26	0.84	0.688	31.68	11000461	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-07-19	0.80	0.681	25.55	8614776	Upward Expansion	51	39
2024-07-12	0.83	0.675	31.23	7729948	Deceleration	58	39
2024-07-05	0.845	0.6647	37.22	6208710	Deceleration	60	31
2024-06-28	0.745	0.654	23.29	5350510	Deceleration	30	18
2024-06-21	0.79	0.6462	31.76	13226572	Deceleration	38	24
2024-06-14	0.675	0.6378	14.96	5046814	Deceleration	27	23
2024-06-07	0.73	0.6333	23.09	6047786	Upward Expansion	42	26
2024-05-31	0.735	0.625	27.45	5397716	Upward Expansion	50	40
2024-05-24	0.76	0.6165	32.30	9411604	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-05-17	0.845	0.6067	46.73	9380850	Upward Expansion	70	62
2024-05-10	0.895	0.5935	57.96	13283413	Upward Expansion	84	67
2024-05-03	0.785	0.5782	42.10	10986838	Upward Expansion	68	65
2024-04-26	0.795	0.5665	45.77	5059054	Upward Expansion	74	84
2024-04-19	0.73	0.556	34.82	6366684	Upward Expansion	67	85
2024-04-12	0.82	0.5487	47.73	10951976	Upward Expansion	88	94
2024-04-05	0.75	0.5378	35.36	7821001	Upward Expansion	80	86
2024-03-29	0.725	0.5278	28.75	6996472	Upward Expansion	81	81
2024-03-22	0.71	0.5187	27.85	16993611	Balance	79	66
2024-03-15	0.585	0.51	6.80	9487555	Balance	44	24
2024-03-08	0.545	0.5055	-2.99	11205708	Balance	27	11
2024-03-01	0.495	0.5023	-11.08	4040282	Balance	-15	17
2024-02-23	0.52	0.5028	-5.92	5335688	Balance	7	16
2024-02-16	0.515	0.504	-7.50	5186126	Balance	-11	20
2024-02-09	0.455	0.5053	-18.53	8120793	Balance	-16	22
2024-02-02	0.505	0.5062	-11.00	5796471	Upward Expansion	22	18
2024-01-26	0.53	0.5033	-5.78	5409683	Upward Expansion	37	20
2024-01-19	0.545	0.4977	-2.47	6759221	Upward Expansion	54	38
2024-01-12	0.55	0.4925	-3.80	41167563	Upward Expansion	60	64
2024-01-05	0.59	0.4882	2.10	1812214	Upward Expansion	61	71
2023-12-29	0.63	0.4835	6.18	2554621	Upward Expansion	78	75
2023-12-22	0.62	0.4785	5.08	7465236	Upward Expansion	78	60
2023-12-15	0.52	0.4733	-11.53	3831225	Upward Expansion	54	43
2023-12-08	0.525	0.475	-8.34	99581	Upward Expansion	58	58
2023-12-01	0.51	0.4765	-10.37	1008090	Balance	54	52
2023-11-24	0.54	0.479	-5.77	3366172	Balance	36	43
2023-11-17	0.54	0.481	-6.92	3482866	Balance	36	27
2023-11-10	0.48	0.483	-17.23	2302168	Balance	-23	10
2023-11-03	0.48	0.493	-17.85	3495804	Balance	-38	19
2023-10-27	0.465	0.5005	-19.12	3737955	Balance	-47	33
2023-10-20	0.45	0.509	-23.11	5271106	Balance	-47	32
2023-10-13	0.435	0.5145	-27.88	1139289	Balance	-51	25
2023-10-06	0.435	0.52	-27.47	2191466	Balance	-41	17

Price vs TrendBelow-7.1%

Trend directionFalling-3.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+44.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-10.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-4.4%

Price momentumPositive+4.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.59×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-54 / ±100

-55.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

36 /100

+23.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

FFM Directional State ↗ FFM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance31

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion9

Deceleration40

Rotation Down54

Downward Expansion76

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 28%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 47%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 8%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	-9.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-08-21	Developing	+15.2%
Balance	2026-04-17	2026-07-17	Established	-21.2%
Rotation Down	2026-04-03	2026-04-10	New	+23.3%
Deceleration	2026-02-13	2026-03-27	Developing	-9.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2026-02-06	Extended	+60.6%
Rotation Up	2025-06-06	2025-06-27	New	+1.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-05-30	Developing	+34.6%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-04-11	Developing	-19.7%
Deceleration	2025-01-24	2025-02-14	New	+14.4%
Rotation Down	2025-01-10	2025-01-17	New	+0.5%
Deceleration	2024-12-13	2025-01-03	New	-16.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-19	2024-12-06	Established	+29.4%
Deceleration	2024-06-14	2024-07-12	Developing	+23.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing23

Stage 2 · Advancing15

Stage 3 · Distribution63

Stage 4 · Declining85

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3C · Breakdown watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 79/100
Current Relative Strength: -5.15
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +4.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +3.1%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 100th percentile111 in cohort

Test FFM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.62×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.59×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore FFM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 1.77falling

Slow Activity AUD 1.84falling

Trend Reference AUD 1.85-7.1% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 1.19+44.9% close margin

Structural low AUD 1.58shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +9.2%

Annualized volatility +54.5%

From structural high -28.0%

From structural low +37.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	21	-0.5%-29.2% to +37.6%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-2.2%	+52.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-4.2%-34.7% to +96.7%	+22.2%	+22.2%	-8.0%	+22.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-0.1%-35.5% to +52.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-4.8%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+27.8%-56.2% to +155.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+24.3%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

FFM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map