Weekly structural research · LSE · Technology

MAW Stage Analysis

Maruwa Co.,Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close JPY 57,740.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -47−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 40/100directional strength

Maturity 67/100lifecycle context

Confidence 69/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +35.7%JPY 42,553.40 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	57,740.00	61,118.78	3.65	0	Downward Expansion	-47	40
2026-09-25	52,240.00	61,237.02	-7.89	0	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2026-09-18	52,240.00	61,536.59	-7.44	0	Downward Expansion	-65	85
2026-09-11	52,240.00	61,629.68	-7.38	11350	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2026-09-04	47,291.04	61,639.50	-17.56	475	Rotation Down	-90	92
2026-08-28	47,969.60	61,665.75	-16.51	40	Rotation Down	-65	66
2026-08-21	54,100.00	61,653.39	-5.96	940	Rotation Down	-57	65
2026-08-14	61,010.00	61,555.92	6.75	12600	Rotation Down	-31	66
2026-08-07	55,630.00	61,094.23	-3.78	0	Rotation Down	-45	78
2026-07-31	57,940.00	60,723.61	0.55	0	Rotation Down	-42	58
2026-07-24	57,940.00	60,157.77	1.94	0	Rotation Down	-28	46
2026-07-17	60,020.00	59,591.92	7.35	0	Rotation Down	-4	28
2026-07-10	60,020.00	58,956.75	8.89	0	Upward Expansion	16	21
2026-07-03	73,070.00	58,454.45	30.92	0	Upward Expansion	82	87
2026-06-26	68,570.00	57,567.45	25.93	680	Upward Expansion	67	85
2026-06-19	69,680.00	56,805.47	30.62	2200	Upward Expansion	67	87
2026-06-12	73,930.00	55,968.85	38.45	0	Upward Expansion	88	94
2026-06-05	73,930.00	54,958.26	41.37	100	Upward Expansion	91	76
2026-05-29	67,630.00	53,901.05	30.48	0	Upward Expansion	72	65
2026-05-22	67,630.00	53,107.79	31.13	6969	Upward Expansion	74	66
2026-05-15	64,520.00	52,151.67	29.76	9600	Upward Expansion	67	80
2026-05-08	66,660.00	51,299.21	35.04	0	Upward Expansion	69	87
2026-05-01	66,660.00	50,462.35	34.90	0	Upward Expansion	73	89
2026-04-24	66,660.00	49,625.49	36.54	0	Upward Expansion	77	81
2026-04-17	66,660.00	48,786.93	34.63	2511	Upward Expansion	81	66
2026-04-10	64,230.00	48,089.74	32.20	2989	Upward Expansion	80	60
2026-04-03	56,920.00	47,473.55	20.37	2911	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-03-27	59,089.00	47,101.03	30.79	5500	Upward Expansion	71	62
2026-03-20	56,980.82	46,656.20	27.17	1189	Upward Expansion	66	69
2026-03-13	54,363.08	46,281.65	17.57	169	Upward Expansion	67	86
2026-03-06	61,287.10	45,994.36	32.32	7731	Upward Expansion	87	95
2026-02-27	61,227.16	45,476.27	25.06	3162	Upward Expansion	94	97
2026-02-20	55,032.50	44,912.60	15.03	5200	Upward Expansion	89	93
2026-02-13	52,534.66	44,409.07	12.34	4600	Upward Expansion	86	89
2026-02-06	48,078.50	43,988.80	3.55	2500	Upward Expansion	61	76
2026-01-30	47,598.92	43,717.06	3.77	7420	Upward Expansion	59	73
2026-01-23	51,175.83	43,461.32	12.22	6480	Upward Expansion	81	74
2026-01-16	47,159.30	43,141.89	2.40	1080	Balance	54	22
2026-01-09	44,511.58	42,804.66	-2.55	760	Balance	3	17
2026-01-02	40,964.64	42,555.69	-9.14	0	Balance	-23	28
2025-12-26	40,964.64	42,302.88	-8.90	0	Balance	8	9
2025-12-19	40,964.64	42,050.06	-9.65	4720	Upward Expansion	30	24
2025-12-12	44,951.20	41,797.24	1.12	5200	Upward Expansion	60	64
2025-12-05	46,459.90	41,327.72	4.21	2240	Rotation Up	76	62
2025-11-28	45,710.55	40,807.90	1.92	1960	Rotation Up	63	50
2025-11-21	44,581.52	40,174.02	1.20	2020	Deceleration	56	44
2025-11-14	43,612.36	39,577.78	-2.72	159	Deceleration	40	27
2025-11-07	42,213.57	39,013.84	-5.91	3154	Deceleration	3	24
2025-10-31	43,832.17	38,496.52	-2.92	2100	Deceleration	18	43
2025-10-24	38,946.39	38,520.35	-13.27	0	Rotation Down	-30	55
2025-10-17	38,946.39	38,707.03	-10.90	595	Rotation Down	-26	51
2025-10-10	41,554.13	38,892.14	-5.95	0	Deceleration	30	51
2025-10-03	41,554.13	38,990.34	-6.83	0	Deceleration	42	36
2025-09-26	41,503.18	39,088.53	-5.13	500	Upward Expansion	53	59
2025-09-19	45,744.30	39,188.42	5.25	0	Upward Expansion	66	81
2025-09-12	45,744.30	39,146.94	4.60	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2025-09-05	45,744.30	39,105.46	5.58	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2025-08-29	45,744.30	39,063.98	5.96	0	Rotation Up	71	90
2025-08-22	45,744.30	39,022.50	4.61	0	Rotation Up	52	83
2025-08-15	45,744.30	38,981.02	6.84	0	Rotation Up	61	86
2025-08-08	45,744.30	38,939.54	7.53	200	Rotation Up	68	83
2025-08-01	44,317.29	38,898.06	4.64	500	Rotation Up	58	83
2025-07-25	39,926.48	38,904.15	-6.18	0	Rotation Up	31	74
2025-07-18	39,926.48	39,056.60	-4.93	0	Rotation Up	32	76
2025-07-11	39,926.48	39,209.04	-4.48	0	Rotation Up	37	77
2025-07-04	39,926.48	39,235.56	-3.27	200	Rotation Up	16	40
2025-06-27	41,592.99	39,262.07	0.99	1300	Downward Expansion	25	39
2025-06-20	37,042.51	39,233.03	-9.79	0	Downward Expansion	-24	37
2025-06-13	37,042.51	39,355.67	-10.58	600	Downward Expansion	-33	41
2025-06-06	33,380.17	39,478.31	-19.34	0	Downward Expansion	-43	38
2025-05-30	33,380.17	39,723.03	-18.90	0	Downward Expansion	-50	50
2025-05-23	33,380.17	39,967.76	-18.47	200	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2025-05-16	30,865.43	40,212.48	-24.38	0	Downward Expansion	-67	69
2025-05-09	30,865.43	40,541.02	-23.40	100	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2025-05-02	26,694.16	40,902.80	-34.20	0	Downward Expansion	-83	74
2025-04-25	26,694.16	41,403.61	-33.03	0	Downward Expansion	-93	77
2025-04-18	26,694.16	41,811.39	-32.13	0	Rotation Down	-92	97
2025-04-11	26,694.16	42,217.61	-29.83	100	Rotation Down	-54	64
2025-04-04	44,546.81	42,600.59	15.37	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-03-28	44,546.81	42,388.48	7.77	0	Deceleration	93	98
2025-03-21	44,499.91	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-03-14	44,499.91	41,965.83	8.99	0	Deceleration	61	65
2025-03-07	44,499.91	41,755.29	8.89	0	Deceleration	61	65
2025-02-28	44,499.91	41,544.75	7.68	0	Deceleration	62	66
2025-02-21	44,499.91	41,334.21	9.79	0	Deceleration	62	66
2025-02-14	44,499.91	41,123.66	9.30	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2025-02-07	44,499.91	40,913.12	10.11	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2025-01-31	44,499.91	40,702.58	11.05	0	Upward Expansion	66	87
2025-01-24	44,499.91	40,492.04	13.93	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2025-01-17	44,499.91	40,281.50	14.61	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2025-01-10	44,499.91	39,966.41	19.01	0	Upward Expansion	83	94
2025-01-03	44,499.91	39,651.32	20.33	0	Upward Expansion	94	98
2024-12-27	44,499.91	39,336.23	22.45	0	Upward Expansion	94	92
2024-12-20	44,499.91	38,966.39	24.52	600	Deceleration	93	76
2024-12-13	40,721.80	38,596.54	11.98	0	Deceleration	51	58
2024-12-06	40,721.80	38,387.47	12.55	0	Deceleration	51	60
2024-11-29	40,721.80	38,178.41	13.76	0	Deceleration	52	60
2024-11-22	40,721.80	37,912.93	15.04	0	Deceleration	52	62
2024-11-15	40,721.80	37,647.44	18.85	0	Upward Expansion	63	66
2024-11-08	40,721.80	37,462.60	19.78	0	Upward Expansion	65	67
2024-11-01	40,721.80	37,237.27	19.27	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-10-25	40,721.80	37,064.71	19.25	0	Upward Expansion	67	69
2024-10-18	40,721.80	36,767.70	18.65	100	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-10-11	41,718.67	36,469.26	24.10	0	Upward Expansion	97	99
2024-10-04	41,718.67	36,119.26	24.87	100	Upward Expansion	96	98
2024-09-27	38,927.45	35,809.13	17.04	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-09-20	38,880.60	35,666.62	19.15	200	Upward Expansion	89	76
2024-09-13	38,183.64	35,447.78	17.30	0	Upward Expansion	57	84
2024-09-06	38,183.64	35,252.18	19.47	0	Upward Expansion	57	85
2024-08-30	38,183.64	34,939.24	17.40	0	Upward Expansion	57	68
2024-08-23	38,183.64	34,626.30	18.75	0	Upward Expansion	63	73
2024-08-16	38,183.64	34,305.41	19.63	0	Upward Expansion	65	87
2024-08-09	38,183.64	33,920.89	22.38	0	Upward Expansion	66	88
2024-08-02	38,183.64	33,536.36	23.06	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-07-26	38,183.64	33,151.83	22.24	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-07-19	38,183.64	32,767.31	25.35	0	Upward Expansion	77	92
2024-07-12	38,183.64	32,382.78	25.05	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-07-05	38,183.64	31,998.25	26.89	0	Upward Expansion	92	97
2024-06-28	38,183.64	31,500.37	28.62	100	Upward Expansion	92	90
2024-06-21	35,047.30	31,002.49	18.09	0	Upward Expansion	71	70
2024-06-14	35,047.30	30,609.16	20.40	0	Upward Expansion	74	58
2024-06-07	35,047.30	30,215.82	20.08	200	Upward Expansion	76	57
2024-05-31	33,404.46	29,822.49	15.12	0	Upward Expansion	49	45
2024-05-24	33,404.46	29,483.91	15.50	100	Upward Expansion	49	43
2024-05-17	34,449.90	29,145.34	18.65	0	Upward Expansion	70	54
2024-05-10	34,449.90	28,771.92	19.70	100	Upward Expansion	72	55
2024-05-03	32,757.28	28,398.50	18.10	0	Upward Expansion	62	58
2024-04-26	32,757.28	28,081.49	20.37	2384	Upward Expansion	65	65
2024-04-19	35,176.54	27,748.58	34.66	3500	Upward Expansion	78	70
2024-04-12	33,961.87	27,384.32	30.10	3100	Upward Expansion	71	66
2024-04-05	35,545.14	27,060.54	39.22	8463	Upward Expansion	90	72
2024-03-29	31,811.40	26,731.30	25.56	0	Upward Expansion	63	63
2024-03-22	31,768.59	26,526.52	27.04	1400	Upward Expansion	66	67
2024-03-15	31,218.59	26,323.16	29.39	26613	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-03-08	32,414.90	26,138.14	36.90	2605	Upward Expansion	69	69
2024-03-01	34,652.12	25,913.24	47.69	10800	Upward Expansion	99	97
2024-02-23	32,315.46	25,598.21	39.30	0	Rotation Up	97	99
2024-02-16	32,315.46	25,238.19	40.93	12200	Rotation Up	100	80
2024-02-09	28,795.56	24,890.12	29.53	0	Rotation Up	88	76
2024-02-02	28,795.56	24,664.44	30.16	800	Rotation Up	96	79
2024-01-26	28,556.93	24,433.55	30.35	3100	Upward Expansion	99	79
2024-01-19	26,647.83	24,216.81	25.97	0	Upward Expansion	70	89
2024-01-12	26,647.83	24,002.84	24.64	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-01-05	26,647.83	23,769.34	24.93	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2023-12-29	26,647.83	23,514.68	25.52	0	Upward Expansion	94	98
2023-12-22	26,647.83	23,263.98	27.36	0	Upward Expansion	94	98
2023-12-15	26,647.83	23,015.59	30.72	600	Deceleration	90	69
2023-12-08	23,247.25	22,706.00	15.32	0	Deceleration	5	14
2023-12-01	23,247.25	22,509.76	16.40	0	Deceleration	14	21
2023-11-24	23,247.25	22,313.52	17.66	0	Deceleration	4	29
2023-11-17	23,247.25	22,117.29	17.92	0	Deceleration	4	35
2023-11-10	23,247.25	21,921.05	20.80	0	Deceleration	3	39
2023-11-03	23,247.25	21,748.96	20.54	0	Deceleration	5	37
2023-10-27	23,247.25	21,576.87	23.30	0	Deceleration	12	30
2023-10-20	23,247.25	21,387.58	22.24	0	Deceleration	15	37
2023-10-13	23,247.25	21,205.55	19.86	0	Deceleration	31	45

Price vs TrendBelow-5.5%

Trend directionRising+1.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+35.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-47.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+3.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-27.3%

Price momentumPositive+1.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led16.46×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-47 / ±100

+43.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

40 /100

-52.0 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MAW Directional State ↗ MAW Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance41

Rotation Up28

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration47

Rotation Down35

Downward Expansion67

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 155 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 3%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 54%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 9%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	+10.5%
Rotation Down	2026-07-17	2026-09-04	Developing	-21.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-07-10	Established	+17.3%
Balance	2025-12-26	2026-01-16	New	+15.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-12	2025-12-19	New	-8.9%
Rotation Up	2025-11-28	2025-12-05	New	+1.6%
Deceleration	2025-10-31	2025-11-21	New	+1.7%
Rotation Down	2025-10-17	2025-10-24	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-10-10	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-09-26	New	-9.3%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-08-29	Developing	+14.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-06-27	Developing	+55.8%
Rotation Down	2025-04-11	2025-04-18	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-04-04	New	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing26

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution75

Stage 4 · Declining41

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 20/100
Current Relative Strength: 3.65
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +1.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +1.2%
Technology regime cohort: 23th percentile31 in cohort

Test MAW trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume16.46×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MAW Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 53,743.40rising

Slow Activity JPY 59,239.72falling

Trend Reference JPY 61,118.78-5.5% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 42,553.40+35.7% close margin

Structural low JPY 47,291.04shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.3%

Annualized volatility +51.8%

From structural high -21.9%

From structural low +48.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	+17.1%+7.8% to +31.6%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+16.5%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	+48.6%+14.3% to +49.6%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+41.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+55.7%+45.9% to +65.9%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+47.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+89.5%+65.1% to +149.7%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+93.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MAW Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map