Weekly structural research ยท JPX ยท Technology

5016 Stage Analysis

JX Advanced Metals Corporation

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close JPY 3,612.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^N225
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Direction -56โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 51/100directional strength
Maturity 15/100lifecycle context
Confidence 87/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation
Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +45.5%JPY 2,483.22 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 81 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-023,612.004,011.28-4.73104717000Downward Expansion-5651
2026-09-253,544.994,024.96-3.5326696200Downward Expansion-6154
2026-09-183,563.94โ€”โ€”81035200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-09-113,684.59โ€”โ€”107210600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-09-043,608.81โ€”โ€”73082200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-08-283,799.27โ€”โ€”13374600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-08-213,591.00โ€”โ€”12292100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-08-143,785.00โ€”โ€”15723900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-08-073,886.00โ€”โ€”31474200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-313,797.00โ€”โ€”37341100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-243,770.00โ€”โ€”16923900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-173,558.00โ€”โ€”28586200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-103,962.00โ€”โ€”24382900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-034,085.00โ€”โ€”22912400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-264,553.00โ€”โ€”35105500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-194,747.00โ€”โ€”56189200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-123,557.00โ€”โ€”21633500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-053,760.00โ€”โ€”13686100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-293,929.00โ€”โ€”101594600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-223,994.00โ€”โ€”137371700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-154,175.00โ€”โ€”232987300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-085,416.00โ€”โ€”61876400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-014,770.00โ€”โ€”109171700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-244,625.00โ€”โ€”124149400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-174,899.00โ€”โ€”244823800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-104,577.00โ€”โ€”189101400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-033,652.00โ€”โ€”155418400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-273,652.00โ€”โ€”167189400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-203,762.25โ€”โ€”107419900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-134,022.46โ€”โ€”215630100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-064,022.46โ€”โ€”320899000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-274,130.72โ€”โ€”215518100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-203,365.96โ€”โ€”117603900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-133,346.09โ€”โ€”159292400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-062,511.81โ€”โ€”163677800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-302,519.25โ€”โ€”149441000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-232,637.94โ€”โ€”217269400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-162,591.76โ€”โ€”192634600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-092,174.12โ€”โ€”135209900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-021,946.67โ€”โ€”43980200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-261,903.97โ€”โ€”93372000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-191,710.29โ€”โ€”66885000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-121,756.48โ€”โ€”85834500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-051,764.92โ€”โ€”82085100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-281,657.65โ€”โ€”92540100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-211,590.61โ€”โ€”202491600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-141,709.80โ€”โ€”190270300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-071,910.42โ€”โ€”116587000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-312,040.03โ€”โ€”185371800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-241,937.74โ€”โ€”262966800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-171,949.65โ€”โ€”181498700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-102,087.71โ€”โ€”343421200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-032,103.10โ€”โ€”247379800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-261,774.35โ€”โ€”117596600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-191,621.91โ€”โ€”152002700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-121,623.40โ€”โ€”216754200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-051,459.57โ€”โ€”154978500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-291,350.19โ€”โ€”115404100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-221,196.27โ€”โ€”81460700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-151,073.03โ€”โ€”71582200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-08986.02โ€”โ€”100000800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-01875.64โ€”โ€”30771200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-25877.03โ€”โ€”35789200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-18827.44โ€”โ€”22104100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-11838.52โ€”โ€”34137600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-04810.61โ€”โ€”38997300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-27801.80โ€”โ€”23184200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-20773.29โ€”โ€”21326900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-13755.28โ€”โ€”23141200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-06739.44โ€”โ€”21258100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-30776.85โ€”โ€”24955300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-23791.90โ€”โ€”21631000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-16796.26โ€”โ€”42246700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-09799.03โ€”โ€”19288100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-02783.98โ€”โ€”104601000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-25806.75โ€”โ€”33847700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-18831.50โ€”โ€”42014500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-11837.44โ€”โ€”92452300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-04789.92โ€”โ€”95842600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-28905.74โ€”โ€”247089600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-21929.95โ€”โ€”323450800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-10.0%
Trend directionRising+6.8%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+45.5%
Fair Value directionMoving away-36.1%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.7%
Relative strength directionWeakening-24.7%
Price momentumNegative-1.1%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.19ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-56 / ยฑ100

Recent comparison unavailable

Energy

51 /100

Recent comparison unavailable

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance26
Rotation Up21
Upward Expansion11
Deceleration41
Rotation Down49
Downward Expansion82

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2025-03-21 to 2026-10-02 ยท 2 classified observations out of 81 shown.

Downward Expansion 100%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-09-252026-10-02New+1.9%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing15
Stage 2 ยท Advancing44
Stage 3 ยท Distribution58
Stage 4 ยท Declining54

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4A ยท Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
65/100
Current Relative Strength
-4.73
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-1.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-29.7%
Technology regime cohort
50th percentile138 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.18ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.19ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity JPY 3,593.98falling
Slow Activity JPY 3,883.25falling
Trend Reference JPY 4,011.28-10.0% close margin
Current Fair Value JPY 2,483.22+45.5% close margin
Structural low JPY 3,361.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.1%
Annualized volatility +74.2%
From structural high -38.0%
From structural low +134.5%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^N225 Regime survived Read
Near term0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context