Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.
The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Direction
-56โ100 bearish to +100 bullishEnergy
51/100directional strengthMaturity
15/100lifecycle contextConfidence
87/100evidence agreementTrend gate
Downstructural directionActivity structure
Moderateexpanding separationPrice acceptance
-50.0%position within the Activity structureFair Value context
+45.5%JPY 2,483.22 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context
Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value
Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.
CloseActivity LinesTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 81 observations
Week
Close
Trend
Relative Strength
Volume
Regime
Direction
Energy
2026-10-02
3,612.00
4,011.28
-4.73
104717000
Downward Expansion
-56
51
2026-09-25
3,544.99
4,024.96
-3.53
26696200
Downward Expansion
-61
54
2026-09-18
3,563.94
โ
โ
81035200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-09-11
3,684.59
โ
โ
107210600
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-09-04
3,608.81
โ
โ
73082200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-08-28
3,799.27
โ
โ
13374600
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-08-21
3,591.00
โ
โ
12292100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-08-14
3,785.00
โ
โ
15723900
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-08-07
3,886.00
โ
โ
31474200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-07-31
3,797.00
โ
โ
37341100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-07-24
3,770.00
โ
โ
16923900
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-07-17
3,558.00
โ
โ
28586200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-07-10
3,962.00
โ
โ
24382900
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-07-03
4,085.00
โ
โ
22912400
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-06-26
4,553.00
โ
โ
35105500
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-06-19
4,747.00
โ
โ
56189200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-06-12
3,557.00
โ
โ
21633500
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-06-05
3,760.00
โ
โ
13686100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-05-29
3,929.00
โ
โ
101594600
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-05-22
3,994.00
โ
โ
137371700
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-05-15
4,175.00
โ
โ
232987300
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-05-08
5,416.00
โ
โ
61876400
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-05-01
4,770.00
โ
โ
109171700
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-04-24
4,625.00
โ
โ
124149400
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-04-17
4,899.00
โ
โ
244823800
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-04-10
4,577.00
โ
โ
189101400
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-04-03
3,652.00
โ
โ
155418400
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-03-27
3,652.00
โ
โ
167189400
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-03-20
3,762.25
โ
โ
107419900
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-03-13
4,022.46
โ
โ
215630100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-03-06
4,022.46
โ
โ
320899000
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-02-27
4,130.72
โ
โ
215518100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-02-20
3,365.96
โ
โ
117603900
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-02-13
3,346.09
โ
โ
159292400
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-02-06
2,511.81
โ
โ
163677800
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-01-30
2,519.25
โ
โ
149441000
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-01-23
2,637.94
โ
โ
217269400
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-01-16
2,591.76
โ
โ
192634600
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-01-09
2,174.12
โ
โ
135209900
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2026-01-02
1,946.67
โ
โ
43980200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-12-26
1,903.97
โ
โ
93372000
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-12-19
1,710.29
โ
โ
66885000
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-12-12
1,756.48
โ
โ
85834500
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-12-05
1,764.92
โ
โ
82085100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-11-28
1,657.65
โ
โ
92540100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-11-21
1,590.61
โ
โ
202491600
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-11-14
1,709.80
โ
โ
190270300
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-11-07
1,910.42
โ
โ
116587000
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-10-31
2,040.03
โ
โ
185371800
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-10-24
1,937.74
โ
โ
262966800
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-10-17
1,949.65
โ
โ
181498700
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-10-10
2,087.71
โ
โ
343421200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-10-03
2,103.10
โ
โ
247379800
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-09-26
1,774.35
โ
โ
117596600
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-09-19
1,621.91
โ
โ
152002700
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-09-12
1,623.40
โ
โ
216754200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-09-05
1,459.57
โ
โ
154978500
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-08-29
1,350.19
โ
โ
115404100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-08-22
1,196.27
โ
โ
81460700
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-08-15
1,073.03
โ
โ
71582200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-08-08
986.02
โ
โ
100000800
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-08-01
875.64
โ
โ
30771200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-07-25
877.03
โ
โ
35789200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-07-18
827.44
โ
โ
22104100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-07-11
838.52
โ
โ
34137600
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-07-04
810.61
โ
โ
38997300
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-06-27
801.80
โ
โ
23184200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-06-20
773.29
โ
โ
21326900
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-06-13
755.28
โ
โ
23141200
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-06-06
739.44
โ
โ
21258100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-05-30
776.85
โ
โ
24955300
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-05-23
791.90
โ
โ
21631000
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-05-16
796.26
โ
โ
42246700
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-05-09
799.03
โ
โ
19288100
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-05-02
783.98
โ
โ
104601000
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-04-25
806.75
โ
โ
33847700
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-04-18
831.50
โ
โ
42014500
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-04-11
837.44
โ
โ
92452300
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-04-04
789.92
โ
โ
95842600
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-03-28
905.74
โ
โ
247089600
Not yet classified
โ
โ
2025-03-21
929.95
โ
โ
323450800
Not yet classified
โ
โ
Price vs TrendBelow-10.0%Trend directionRising+6.8%Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+45.5%Fair Value directionMoving away-36.1%Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.7%Relative strength directionWeakening-24.7%Price momentumNegative-1.1%Volume balanceDemand-led1.19ร
Beyond the current label
Is the structure strengthening or losing force?
Direction and energy measure different things
Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.
Direction
-56 / ยฑ100
Recent comparison unavailable
Energy
51 /100
Recent comparison unavailable
Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.
The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.
Time spent in each state
The context behind todayโs regime
2025-03-21 to 2026-10-02 ยท 2 classified observations out of 81 shown.
Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4A ยท Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.
Leadership versus ^N225
Is relative performance confirming the geometry?
Confirmation, not classification
Relative Strength
The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.
Fast Activity
JPY 3,593.98fallingSlow Activity
JPY 3,883.25fallingTrend Reference
JPY 4,011.28-10.0% close marginCurrent Fair Value
JPY 2,483.22+45.5% close marginStructural low
JPY 3,361.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?
Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.
Range context
+8.1%Annualized volatility
+74.2%From structural high
-38.0%From structural low
+134.5%
Point-in-time evidence
What followed this architecture in this market?
Descriptive history, never a forecast
Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.
Outcome horizon
Samples
Median move
Positive periods
Directional follow-through
Median excess vs ^N225
Regime survived
Read
Near term
0
โ
โ
โ
โ
โ
Too little matched history
Intermediate
0
โ
โ
โ
โ
โ
Too little matched history
Extended
0
โ
โ
โ
โ
โ
Too little matched history
Full cycle
0
โ
โ
โ
โ
โ
Too little matched history
Continue the research
Test the structure from another angle
Use complementary evidence to confirm or challenge the stage reading. Each app shows its own observation date and coverage.
What the analysis measures and where its limits lie
Trend Architecture
Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.
Evidence roles
Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.
Fair Value and RS
Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.
Known limitations
Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.
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