Weekly structural research · ASX · Basic Materials

HMG Stage Analysis

Hamelin Gold Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close AUD 0.24Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 62−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 55/100directional strength

Maturity 67/100lifecycle context

Confidence 73/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +164.1%AUD 0.0909 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	0.24	0.1498	105.21	359569	Upward Expansion	62	55
2026-09-18	0.24	0.1469	109.75	2737890	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-09-11	0.225	0.1428	102.35	1899036	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-09-04	0.26	0.1379	132.96	2547325	Upward Expansion	82	92
2026-08-28	0.245	0.1315	124.42	4076621	Upward Expansion	84	94
2026-08-21	0.26	0.1257	146.42	2464516	Upward Expansion	96	98
2026-08-14	0.185	0.1195	80.59	0	Upward Expansion	79	92
2026-08-07	0.195	0.1157	92.09	439704	Upward Expansion	89	91
2026-07-31	0.17	0.1115	77.54	265562	Rotation Up	76	54
2026-07-24	0.145	0.1082	58.42	218519	Rotation Up	40	16
2026-07-17	0.10	0.1054	10.85	0	Rotation Down	-30	47
2026-07-10	0.098	0.1041	9.25	0	Rotation Down	-22	41
2026-07-03	0.09	0.1029	0.62	20000	Deceleration	-31	41
2026-06-26	0.10	0.1019	13.38	78400	Deceleration	-2	15
2026-06-19	0.115	0.1007	30.41	12500	Deceleration	15	12
2026-06-12	0.105	0.0992	20.24	83593	Deceleration	11	8
2026-06-05	0.105	0.0982	23.27	290152	Deceleration	28	19
2026-05-29	0.125	0.0971	45.61	193446	Deceleration	50	40
2026-05-22	0.125	0.0956	48.06	533084	Deceleration	47	26
2026-05-15	0.13	0.0946	56.32	1371946	Deceleration	50	24
2026-05-08	0.135	0.0933	61.60	2767384	Deceleration	42	19
2026-05-01	0.095	0.0912	14.70	1740122	Deceleration	21	17
2026-04-24	0.11	0.0904	31.94	749040	Deceleration	33	19
2026-04-17	0.11	0.0888	29.89	656311	Deceleration	36	20
2026-04-10	0.115	0.0874	35.84	927206	Deceleration	40	26
2026-04-03	0.125	0.0861	55.38	654650	Upward Expansion	55	40
2026-03-27	0.12	0.0845	51.39	271984	Upward Expansion	62	54
2026-03-20	0.125	0.083	60.78	1087678	Upward Expansion	66	80
2026-03-13	0.135	0.0811	71.63	1504688	Upward Expansion	65	86
2026-03-06	0.165	0.0783	107.02	2186078	Upward Expansion	90	95
2026-02-27	0.155	0.0745	92.09	6675945	Upward Expansion	93	92
2026-02-20	0.115	0.0713	47.63	2735286	Upward Expansion	89	79
2026-02-13	0.078	0.0696	3.23	1247252	Balance	55	34
2026-02-06	0.069	0.0692	-6.20	431824	Balance	9	15
2026-01-30	0.071	0.069	-4.93	453262	Balance	11	20
2026-01-23	0.075	0.0688	0.62	608256	Balance	20	24
2026-01-16	0.07	0.0685	-6.35	634345	Balance	-2	9
2026-01-09	0.07	0.0688	-4.21	310261	Rotation Down	-2	10
2026-01-02	0.07	0.0692	-4.11	65559	Rotation Down	-20	31
2025-12-26	0.061	0.0697	-16.72	822073	Rotation Down	-38	60
2025-12-19	0.06	0.0705	-16.90	144135	Rotation Down	-42	64
2025-12-12	0.062	0.0709	-15.04	428421	Rotation Down	-39	52
2025-12-05	0.062	0.0718	-14.80	114493	Balance	-38	35
2025-11-28	0.063	0.073	-13.54	250657	Balance	-25	27
2025-11-21	0.07	0.0739	-1.89	83151	Balance	-5	11
2025-11-14	0.076	0.0746	3.57	181350	Rotation Up	23	21
2025-11-07	0.071	0.075	-5.31	356013	Rotation Up	24	46
2025-10-31	0.081	0.075	6.01	632411	Rotation Up	23	54
2025-10-24	0.094	0.0751	20.82	816336	Rotation Up	41	60
2025-10-17	0.091	0.0746	17.32	2986741	Balance	37	35
2025-10-10	0.072	0.0741	-6.82	399288	Balance	-23	15
2025-10-03	0.07	0.0741	-9.80	937560	Balance	-17	10
2025-09-26	0.064	0.0735	-15.69	558790	Balance	-23	20
2025-09-19	0.066	0.0732	-13.11	419589	Downward Expansion	-23	26
2025-09-12	0.077	0.073	0.27	4346466	Downward Expansion	9	25
2025-09-05	0.078	0.0726	1.62	845145	Downward Expansion	-15	18
2025-08-29	0.074	0.0718	-4.81	894714	Downward Expansion	-39	32
2025-08-22	0.067	0.0715	-14.00	881362	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2025-08-15	0.051	0.0714	-35.48	1036787	Rotation Down	-76	76
2025-08-08	0.052	0.0717	-34.48	1003741	Rotation Down	-51	60
2025-08-01	0.059	0.0719	-25.82	1036877	Rotation Down	-43	54
2025-07-25	0.063	0.0721	-21.88	754713	Rotation Down	-28	55
2025-07-18	0.068	0.0721	-17.36	411674	Rotation Down	-23	51
2025-07-11	0.063	0.072	-22.61	184741	Deceleration	-30	43
2025-07-04	0.065	0.0724	-21.10	369939	Deceleration	-24	26
2025-06-27	0.064	0.0727	-21.93	1566502	Deceleration	-7	12
2025-06-20	0.08	0.0729	-2.85	98081	Deceleration	33	18
2025-06-13	0.083	0.0728	0.16	297933	Deceleration	33	24
2025-06-06	0.084	0.0732	1.74	662946	Upward Expansion	37	21
2025-05-30	0.086	0.0734	4.97	1069378	Upward Expansion	45	30
2025-05-23	0.07	0.0734	-14.06	297502	Upward Expansion	37	34
2025-05-16	0.09	0.0738	10.43	157640	Upward Expansion	65	79
2025-05-09	0.099	0.0737	23.58	1037983	Rotation Up	84	88
2025-05-02	0.09	0.0727	12.89	110676	Rotation Up	46	57
2025-04-25	0.09	0.0719	16.94	1213755	Rotation Up	51	64
2025-04-18	0.089	0.0711	18.20	914704	Rotation Up	45	64
2025-04-11	0.07	0.0703	-4.63	325896	Rotation Up	23	47
2025-04-04	0.084	0.0702	13.87	305566	Rotation Up	43	50
2025-03-28	0.078	0.0699	1.84	87851	Downward Expansion	33	37
2025-03-21	0.078	0.0698	2.63	2497696	Downward Expansion	-2	9
2025-03-14	0.072	0.0714	-3.48	280848	Downward Expansion	-29	27
2025-03-07	0.052	0.0728	-31.74	15494	Downward Expansion	-78	73
2025-02-28	0.055	0.0749	-30.17	416211	Downward Expansion	-73	58
2025-02-21	0.06	0.0766	-25.32	417030	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2025-02-14	0.063	0.0778	-24.45	766243	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2025-02-07	0.056	0.079	-32.89	116144	Downward Expansion	-73	53
2025-01-31	0.065	0.0803	-22.70	274361	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-01-24	0.063	0.0808	-24.27	259146	Downward Expansion	-66	70
2025-01-17	0.06	0.0814	-27.37	230036	Downward Expansion	-72	84
2025-01-10	0.059	0.082	-28.89	363361	Downward Expansion	-80	86
2025-01-03	0.064	0.0825	-22.95	0	Downward Expansion	-73	81
2024-12-27	0.064	0.0832	-23.48	30015	Downward Expansion	-76	81
2024-12-20	0.063	0.0841	-23.24	234950	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2024-12-13	0.075	0.0845	-11.31	1462311	Downward Expansion	-48	54
2024-12-06	0.074	0.0843	-13.94	825545	Balance	-58	42
2024-11-29	0.07	0.0842	-19.13	804355	Balance	-60	28
2024-11-22	0.079	0.0844	-8.84	749923	Balance	3	17
2024-11-15	0.095	0.0843	10.51	147871	Balance	29	32
2024-11-08	0.09	0.0836	4.46	574870	Balance	17	24
2024-11-01	0.084	0.0832	-0.61	362349	Balance	-2	12
2024-10-25	0.084	0.0829	-2.11	286188	Rotation Down	-10	11
2024-10-18	0.085	0.0825	-2.15	317814	Rotation Down	-25	25
2024-10-11	0.07	0.0822	-19.12	414114	Rotation Down	-36	56
2024-10-04	0.065	0.0823	-24.77	14747	Rotation Down	-31	60
2024-09-27	0.068	0.0826	-22.51	245400	Rotation Down	-26	54
2024-09-20	0.064	0.0827	-27.55	7474	Deceleration	-34	44
2024-09-13	0.066	0.0832	-24.88	804715	Deceleration	-21	28
2024-09-06	0.075	0.0836	-14.30	249226	Upward Expansion	17	12
2024-08-30	0.077	0.0835	-13.29	803682	Upward Expansion	42	37
2024-08-23	0.125	0.0834	41.28	1116666	Upward Expansion	83	85
2024-08-16	0.115	0.0817	31.51	1140162	Upward Expansion	79	84
2024-08-09	0.115	0.0805	34.95	465976	Upward Expansion	87	90
2024-08-02	0.105	0.0793	21.04	538618	Upward Expansion	81	85
2024-07-26	0.095	0.0784	10.00	206026	Upward Expansion	67	75
2024-07-19	0.10	0.0779	14.80	192571	Upward Expansion	82	78
2024-07-12	0.095	0.0768	8.75	161404	Balance	79	55
2024-07-05	0.08	0.0761	-7.32	1735137	Balance	47	20
2024-06-28	0.08	0.0761	-7.31	1028640	Rotation Up	48	28
2024-06-21	0.079	0.0762	-9.21	615394	Rotation Up	53	50
2024-06-14	0.075	0.0764	-13.39	303334	Rotation Up	20	37
2024-06-07	0.085	0.0767	-3.98	58488	Rotation Up	44	58
2024-05-31	0.09	0.0767	3.13	463508	Rotation Up	38	38
2024-05-24	0.075	0.0766	-15.03	87552	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2024-05-17	0.07	0.0769	-22.50	177498	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2024-05-10	0.071	0.0775	-21.62	273454	Downward Expansion	-58	34
2024-05-03	0.076	0.0779	-15.71	87981	Downward Expansion	-27	15
2024-04-26	0.074	0.0782	-17.80	26013	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2024-04-19	0.074	0.0786	-18.40	313839	Downward Expansion	-34	14
2024-04-12	0.08	0.0791	-15.00	336433	Downward Expansion	-20	9
2024-04-05	0.075	0.0793	-20.75	114700	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2024-03-29	0.072	0.0797	-25.53	15962	Downward Expansion	-55	41
2024-03-22	0.074	0.0803	-22.54	12000	Downward Expansion	-49	37
2024-03-15	0.074	0.0808	-22.10	35991	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2024-03-08	0.073	0.0816	-25.26	6667	Downward Expansion	-51	25
2024-03-01	0.071	0.0823	-26.73	710118	Downward Expansion	-59	30
2024-02-23	0.08	0.083	-17.01	372247	Downward Expansion	-36	21
2024-02-16	0.079	0.0836	-18.60	71972	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2024-02-09	0.071	0.0846	-27.23	445830	Downward Expansion	-66	44
2024-02-02	0.074	0.0859	-25.24	497986	Downward Expansion	-60	37
2024-01-26	0.075	0.0868	-23.73	1864340	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2024-01-19	0.078	0.0874	-20.20	150651	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2024-01-12	0.078	0.0878	-21.96	65000	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2024-01-05	0.08	0.0882	-20.78	76993	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2023-12-29	0.079	0.0889	-23.87	104996	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2023-12-22	0.066	0.0902	-36.55	209689	Downward Expansion	-96	97
2023-12-15	0.074	0.092	-29.50	217083	Downward Expansion	-93	93
2023-12-08	0.082	0.0934	-20.39	41265	Downward Expansion	-73	80
2023-12-01	0.082	0.0945	-20.17	56152	Downward Expansion	-77	77
2023-11-24	0.085	0.0949	-18.29	0	Downward Expansion	-58	56
2023-11-17	0.085	0.0958	-19.57	504453	Downward Expansion	-60	57
2023-11-10	0.084	0.0966	-20.95	123	Downward Expansion	-62	41
2023-11-03	0.087	0.0975	-19.62	74498	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2023-10-27	0.083	0.0977	-23.19	8290	Downward Expansion	-69	55
2023-10-20	0.088	0.0978	-20.39	107117	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2023-10-13	0.084	0.0982	-26.62	141159	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2023-10-06	0.086	0.0984	-24.74	0	Downward Expansion	-64	64

Price vs TrendAbove+60.2%

Trend directionRising+42.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+164.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+143.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+105.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+91.8%

Price momentumPositive+100.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.45×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

62 / ±100

-22.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

55 /100

-38.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HMG Directional State ↗ HMG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance13

Rotation Up57

Upward Expansion80

Deceleration71

Rotation Down20

Downward Expansion9

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 13%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 11%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	+23.1%
Rotation Up	2026-07-24	2026-07-31	New	+17.2%
Rotation Down	2026-07-10	2026-07-17	New	+2.0%
Deceleration	2026-04-10	2026-07-03	Established	-21.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-04-03	Developing	+8.7%
Balance	2026-01-16	2026-02-13	Developing	+11.4%
Rotation Down	2025-12-12	2026-01-09	Developing	+12.9%
Balance	2025-11-21	2025-12-05	New	-11.4%
Rotation Up	2025-10-24	2025-11-14	New	-19.1%
Balance	2025-09-26	2025-10-17	New	+42.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-22	2025-09-19	Developing	-1.5%
Rotation Down	2025-07-18	2025-08-15	Developing	-25.0%
Deceleration	2025-06-13	2025-07-11	Developing	-24.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-06-06	New	-6.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing25

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution45

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 92/100
Current Relative Strength: 105.21
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +100.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +98.3%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 17th percentile109 in cohort

Test HMG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.41×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.45×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HMG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.24rising

Slow Activity AUD 0.1702rising

Trend Reference AUD 0.1498+60.2% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.0909+164.1% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.09shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +17.0%

Annualized volatility +104.9%

From structural high -20.0%

From structural low +336.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	+0.5%-42.6% to +33.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.4%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-15.0%-43.3% to +8.7%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-18.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-15.6%-40.0% to +126.1%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-19.0%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	-32.0%-32.0% to -32.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-41.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HMG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map