Weekly structural research · JPX · Technology

9658 Stage Analysis

Business Brain Showa-Ota Inc.

Week ending 18 Sep 2026Close JPY 1,109.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 78−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 61/100directional strength

Maturity 20/100lifecycle context

Confidence 66/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +36.4%JPY 813.12 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-18	1,109.00	1,005.25	-6.57	406000	Upward Expansion	78	61
2026-09-11	1,056.00	1,001.38	-10.02	400000	Upward Expansion	65	66
2026-09-04	1,096.00	1,000.09	-8.50	481700	Upward Expansion	77	87
2026-08-28	1,094.00	998.28	-10.99	437600	Upward Expansion	84	89
2026-08-21	1,066.00	998.21	-13.16	73900	Upward Expansion	71	76
2026-08-14	1,084.00	1,000.66	-15.68	247000	Rotation Up	84	75
2026-08-07	1,041.00	1,003.21	-15.67	44900	Rotation Up	39	50
2026-07-31	1,035.00	1,007.41	-14.99	72700	Rotation Up	37	56
2026-07-24	1,032.00	1,011.54	-16.02	103200	Rotation Up	37	55
2026-07-17	1,030.00	1,015.60	-15.99	62200	Balance	28	40
2026-07-10	1,038.00	1,019.90	-21.16	46000	Balance	17	24
2026-07-03	1,018.00	1,023.50	-24.40	74500	Balance	6	12
2026-06-26	993.00	1,027.43	-26.27	56200	Balance	-6	15
2026-06-19	993.00	1,032.47	-28.66	74700	Balance	-2	24
2026-06-12	988.00	1,037.13	-24.00	61500	Downward Expansion	-4	27
2026-06-05	1,025.00	1,041.47	-22.33	66800	Downward Expansion	6	28
2026-05-29	1,036.00	1,045.94	-21.67	551300	Downward Expansion	-11	21
2026-05-22	986.00	1,044.82	-22.37	617700	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2026-05-15	968.00	1,045.59	-21.89	402400	Downward Expansion	-53	51
2026-05-08	931.00	1,045.63	-26.92	115800	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2026-05-01	928.00	1,046.47	-23.97	346600	Downward Expansion	-70	63
2026-04-24	927.00	1,046.21	-24.86	494200	Downward Expansion	-73	63
2026-04-17	950.00	1,046.93	-21.93	350500	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2026-04-10	940.00	1,046.88	-21.25	412500	Rotation Down	-72	69
2026-04-03	947.00	1,047.02	-15.57	659900	Rotation Down	-45	65
2026-03-27	952.17	1,046.10	-15.91	791400	Rotation Down	-47	72
2026-03-20	953.79	1,044.24	-16.13	503400	Rotation Down	-51	76
2026-03-13	956.40	1,043.79	-16.85	684600	Rotation Down	-46	78
2026-03-06	983.09	1,042.67	-17.55	597000	Rotation Down	-40	76
2026-02-27	1,001.00	1,039.33	-20.94	616200	Rotation Down	-37	73
2026-02-20	992.86	1,035.13	-19.07	513900	Deceleration	-47	61
2026-02-13	1,017.27	1,031.06	-17.49	429900	Deceleration	-20	36
2026-02-06	1,041.69	1,024.53	-11.45	340500	Deceleration	10	22
2026-01-30	1,092.14	1,016.96	-5.49	298200	Upward Expansion	45	34
2026-01-23	1,139.34	1,007.47	-2.07	306600	Upward Expansion	61	50
2026-01-16	1,160.50	996.96	-0.01	280500	Upward Expansion	64	57
2026-01-09	1,167.01	986.42	4.86	312300	Upward Expansion	69	62
2026-01-02	1,158.88	974.76	8.00	234300	Upward Expansion	67	61
2025-12-26	1,153.99	963.47	7.28	242700	Upward Expansion	67	62
2025-12-19	1,158.88	952.18	11.03	233400	Upward Expansion	72	66
2025-12-12	1,145.86	940.98	7.54	505200	Upward Expansion	70	70
2025-12-05	1,136.09	931.31	7.95	392700	Upward Expansion	68	85
2025-11-28	1,144.23	924.75	9.81	271500	Upward Expansion	76	91
2025-11-21	1,132.83	915.27	12.96	353100	Upward Expansion	79	91
2025-11-14	1,118.19	905.32	8.24	391800	Upward Expansion	83	92
2025-11-07	1,158.88	896.42	13.03	705600	Upward Expansion	94	91
2025-10-31	1,002.62	884.80	-5.47	502200	Upward Expansion	72	69
2025-10-24	1,009.13	877.40	1.53	231600	Upward Expansion	79	56
2025-10-17	969.09	871.64	1.55	213900	Upward Expansion	68	47
2025-10-10	956.07	865.99	-0.32	457500	Upward Expansion	67	47
2025-10-03	920.27	860.30	1.32	477600	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-09-26	948.75	856.27	5.95	186300	Upward Expansion	69	64
2025-09-19	948.43	850.66	7.30	180000	Upward Expansion	71	57
2025-09-12	944.29	845.84	8.12	333900	Upward Expansion	74	70
2025-09-05	919.15	839.80	10.18	263400	Upward Expansion	66	72
2025-08-29	896.55	833.08	8.87	320100	Upward Expansion	64	73
2025-08-22	940.16	825.81	15.04	321300	Upward Expansion	79	81
2025-08-15	922.97	816.52	11.76	543000	Upward Expansion	77	75
2025-08-08	882.87	807.22	11.49	303300	Deceleration	60	54
2025-08-01	874.91	799.62	13.73	240000	Deceleration	56	36
2025-07-25	870.77	792.83	11.91	370200	Deceleration	46	21
2025-07-18	821.44	786.46	10.32	199800	Deceleration	16	10
2025-07-11	814.44	780.91	10.45	149400	Deceleration	18	9
2025-07-04	807.44	775.47	9.25	166800	Deceleration	17	10
2025-06-27	823.99	770.53	11.03	158100	Deceleration	31	15
2025-06-20	844.36	764.79	19.33	295500	Deceleration	34	18
2025-06-13	817.31	758.57	17.84	328500	Deceleration	31	21
2025-06-06	820.17	752.25	19.16	301500	Upward Expansion	36	20
2025-05-30	815.40	744.53	18.38	189000	Upward Expansion	46	36
2025-05-23	822.72	736.67	22.61	345900	Upward Expansion	61	49
2025-05-16	855.82	728.15	26.28	831000	Upward Expansion	64	56
2025-05-09	939.20	718.73	40.43	592800	Upward Expansion	89	83
2025-05-02	859.95	706.64	32.05	252300	Upward Expansion	74	60
2025-04-25	834.17	697.18	33.17	235500	Upward Expansion	67	54
2025-04-18	851.36	688.81	40.83	276300	Upward Expansion	77	61
2025-04-11	810.30	679.40	39.91	600300	Upward Expansion	66	56
2025-04-04	780.39	670.77	35.21	519600	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-03-28	836.40	663.43	32.94	505200	Upward Expansion	85	73
2025-03-21	799.68	655.35	26.09	187800	Upward Expansion	72	69
2025-03-14	785.27	648.21	26.63	267000	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-03-07	799.37	642.21	30.15	278400	Upward Expansion	80	93
2025-02-28	780.57	635.35	26.85	172500	Upward Expansion	79	92
2025-02-21	803.75	629.62	25.71	424500	Upward Expansion	95	97
2025-02-14	763.02	624.66	18.67	350100	Upward Expansion	92	94
2025-02-07	717.58	622.33	12.88	337200	Upward Expansion	84	58
2025-01-31	678.41	621.65	4.63	272700	Upward Expansion	70	44
2025-01-24	661.49	620.93	0.95	220500	Upward Expansion	51	38
2025-01-17	643.94	621.92	1.81	159900	Upward Expansion	50	43
2025-01-10	654.91	622.55	1.43	296700	Rotation Up	63	55
2025-01-03	671.20	622.23	1.90	50700	Rotation Up	43	57
2024-12-27	679.67	621.63	1.87	299400	Rotation Up	54	70
2024-12-20	654.91	620.78	1.84	324300	Rotation Up	39	68
2024-12-13	651.46	620.34	-0.93	284100	Rotation Up	29	68
2024-12-06	659.30	620.03	0.90	293400	Rotation Up	40	72
2024-11-29	651.78	619.88	1.80	426900	Rotation Up	38	61
2024-11-22	657.73	618.74	2.30	313200	Downward Expansion	41	41
2024-11-15	627.65	617.38	-3.46	380400	Downward Expansion	-8	14
2024-11-08	588.48	616.37	-11.71	153300	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2024-11-01	579.71	617.64	-10.17	366300	Downward Expansion	-44	33
2024-10-25	567.17	619.14	-12.20	351300	Downward Expansion	-49	36
2024-10-18	573.12	622.43	-14.24	206100	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2024-10-11	576.57	625.36	-15.54	229200	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2024-10-04	575.94	627.74	-13.99	385800	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2024-09-27	583.15	631.08	-16.05	319200	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2024-09-20	569.06	634.53	-14.06	323100	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2024-09-13	551.55	638.24	-14.54	545400	Downward Expansion	-78	78
2024-09-06	560.15	642.52	-13.10	369300	Downward Expansion	-79	78
2024-08-30	593.95	646.30	-13.60	339900	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2024-08-23	585.35	648.75	-14.61	327300	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2024-08-16	605.32	651.41	-11.39	395700	Balance	-63	50
2024-08-09	593.64	652.93	-5.86	440400	Balance	-70	44
2024-08-02	608.70	655.14	-6.00	333000	Upward Expansion	-22	11
2024-07-26	654.79	656.61	-3.81	241200	Upward Expansion	52	35
2024-07-19	693.20	656.74	-4.50	172500	Rotation Up	68	69
2024-07-12	697.19	654.80	-6.86	381300	Rotation Up	39	55
2024-07-05	656.94	652.87	-11.98	248100	Rotation Up	19	35
2024-06-28	691.05	651.51	-4.76	235200	Balance	38	44
2024-06-21	662.78	649.61	-6.64	293100	Balance	20	19
2024-06-14	645.26	648.54	-10.06	319200	Balance	-20	16
2024-06-07	653.25	648.15	-9.15	199800	Balance	2	12
2024-05-31	654.17	647.29	-9.01	307500	Balance	-17	20
2024-05-24	641.88	646.14	-11.56	365400	Balance	-5	10
2024-05-17	642.19	645.78	-12.17	306900	Rotation Down	-12	12
2024-05-10	654.79	644.79	-9.37	385500	Rotation Down	-22	30
2024-05-03	617.61	643.97	-14.72	111000	Rotation Down	-36	63
2024-04-26	616.69	644.63	-14.40	318000	Rotation Down	-28	60
2024-04-19	597.33	645.83	-15.49	460500	Rotation Down	-46	62
2024-04-12	626.83	647.20	-17.24	250800	Deceleration	-29	31
2024-04-05	624.68	647.25	-16.90	346500	Deceleration	-11	20
2024-03-29	665.85	647.43	-14.99	328200	Deceleration	31	20
2024-03-22	660.99	646.49	-17.16	236700	Upward Expansion	37	20
2024-03-15	648.01	644.90	-14.66	399000	Upward Expansion	37	27
2024-03-08	676.08	643.08	-13.64	367200	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-03-01	686.65	640.56	-13.19	294300	Upward Expansion	70	65
2024-02-23	680.31	637.97	-12.61	253500	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-02-16	680.01	636.85	-11.64	340500	Upward Expansion	70	65
2024-02-09	673.67	636.00	-9.10	408000	Upward Expansion	67	55
2024-02-02	667.33	635.72	-8.39	398100	Upward Expansion	65	58
2024-01-26	665.22	635.73	-7.88	342000	Rotation Up	66	61
2024-01-19	650.73	636.45	-10.67	317100	Rotation Up	31	49
2024-01-12	660.09	638.67	-8.72	228900	Balance	36	51
2024-01-05	652.84	641.47	-4.01	173100	Balance	31	38
2023-12-29	658.58	642.97	-3.51	351300	Balance	5	13
2023-12-22	635.04	644.36	-6.23	277200	Balance	-14	7
2023-12-15	639.26	644.14	-5.12	319200	Balance	-23	10
2023-12-08	616.02	642.38	-6.76	648300	Balance	-42	17
2023-12-01	634.13	640.72	-7.35	697800	Balance	-20	10
2023-11-24	630.81	637.91	-8.56	276900	Balance	-23	12
2023-11-17	633.53	636.26	-8.25	493200	Balance	-35	19
2023-11-10	627.49	635.30	-6.45	393600	Balance	-20	28
2023-11-03	619.64	635.06	-5.79	714900	Balance	-23	27
2023-10-27	631.11	635.06	-1.06	622800	Balance	-15	13
2023-10-20	612.40	634.85	-4.48	391200	Balance	-26	12
2023-10-13	630.21	634.03	-4.60	220200	Balance	-2	7
2023-10-06	637.45	633.42	0.89	419400	Balance	11	12
2023-09-29	652.54	632.74	0.90	591600	Balance	20	17

Price vs TrendAbove+10.3%

Trend directionFalling-1.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+36.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+8.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+22.1%

Price momentumPositive+16.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led3.57×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

78 / ±100

+7.3 points since 2026-08-21

Energy

61 /100

-14.7 points since 2026-08-21

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

9658 Directional State ↗ 9658 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance15

Rotation Up70

Upward Expansion84

Deceleration56

Rotation Down17

Downward Expansion9

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-09-18 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 39%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 15%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-18	Developing	+4.0%
Rotation Up	2026-07-24	2026-08-14	New	+5.0%
Balance	2026-06-19	2026-07-17	Developing	+3.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-06-12	Developing	+4.0%
Rotation Down	2026-02-27	2026-04-10	Developing	-6.1%
Deceleration	2026-02-06	2026-02-20	New	-4.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2026-01-30	Established	+18.3%
Deceleration	2025-06-13	2025-08-08	Developing	+8.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-17	2025-06-06	Established	+27.4%
Rotation Up	2024-11-29	2025-01-10	Developing	+0.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-23	2024-11-22	Established	+12.4%
Balance	2024-08-09	2024-08-16	New	+2.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-08-02	New	-7.0%
Rotation Up	2024-07-05	2024-07-19	New	+5.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing37

Stage 2 · Advancing63

Stage 3 · Distribution60

Stage 4 · Declining37

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 41/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.57
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +16.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -5.5%
Technology regime cohort: 56th percentile234 in cohort

Test 9658 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.85×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.57×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 9658 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 1,087.40rising

Slow Activity JPY 1,030.48rising

Trend Reference JPY 1,005.25+10.3% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 813.12+36.4% close margin

Structural low JPY 913.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +3.2%

Annualized volatility +16.3%

From structural high -6.8%

From structural low +21.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	30	+1.3%-12.7% to +21.2%	+53.3%	+53.3%	-1.4%	+73.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-3.5%-13.4% to +32.2%	+45.5%	+45.5%	-5.2%	+45.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+10.2%-20.3% to +41.3%	+71.4%	+71.4%	-8.1%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+9.9%-2.1% to +61.0%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+2.6%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

9658 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map