Weekly structural research ยท JPX ยท Technology

4053 Stage Analysis

Sun* Inc.

Week ending 18 Sep 2026Close JPY 485.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^N225
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion ยท Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and stable.
Direction 72โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 45/100directional strength
Maturity 23/100lifecycle context
Confidence 70/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatestable separation
Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -25.0%JPY 646.37 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-18485.00440.53-5.00941300Upward Expansion7245
2026-09-11451.00438.17-10.86429600Upward Expansion5538
2026-09-04468.00437.50-9.58456300Upward Expansion6347
2026-08-28466.00436.77-12.60248800Upward Expansion6555
2026-08-21467.00436.33-12.7076400Upward Expansion6960
2026-08-14446.00436.33-20.59175300Upward Expansion5549
2026-08-07463.00437.23-14.48133600Upward Expansion6663
2026-07-31461.00437.33-14.4261800Balance6457
2026-07-24448.00436.93-18.3185300Balance2433
2026-07-17457.00438.37-17.2273400Balance2923
2026-07-10441.00438.90-26.1674200Balance-1612
2026-07-03441.00439.57-28.30109600Balance-2820
2026-06-26420.00439.87-32.2193900Balance-4224
2026-06-19425.00442.27-34.15199100Balance-3113
2026-06-12431.00445.20-29.0198600Balance-1019
2026-06-05454.00445.57-26.89134300Balance1730
2026-05-29445.00445.00-29.00526100Balance816
2026-05-22460.00444.60-24.241945400Balance29
2026-05-15445.00443.70-25.41649000Balance-1310
2026-05-08430.00442.97-30.34190400Downward Expansion-4121
2026-05-01420.00443.13-29.45386900Downward Expansion-3517
2026-04-24414.00443.57-31.79411500Downward Expansion-3522
2026-04-17442.00445.20-26.88508800Downward Expansion-2024
2026-04-10437.00445.67-26.90450900Downward Expansion-3121
2026-04-03454.00446.00-19.69840700Downward Expansion-3021
2026-03-27445.00446.33-22.492073200Downward Expansion-5644
2026-03-20390.00447.00-32.92358400Downward Expansion-7481
2026-03-13387.00449.23-34.94773500Downward Expansion-8183
2026-03-06406.00451.63-34.961308600Downward Expansion-7476
2026-02-27417.00456.43-37.75945000Downward Expansion-6869
2026-02-20414.00460.67-36.801915300Balance-7063
2026-02-13431.00465.00-35.08917200Balance-5036
2026-02-06446.00467.27-30.33701600Balance-3317
2026-01-30453.00468.30-29.17539700Balance-2511
2026-01-23467.00469.37-28.73529000Balance-2212
2026-01-16473.00470.67-28.93495400Balance-1710
2026-01-09466.00471.73-28.25710600Balance-2212
2026-01-02449.00472.93-29.611132300Balance-3015
2025-12-26491.00474.63-24.632541900Balance2416
2025-12-19473.00475.77-26.37932300Balance-612
2025-12-12461.00477.33-30.941414700Balance-721
2025-12-05450.00479.43-32.95992900Balance-1324
2025-11-28492.00483.40-27.28618900Rotation Up1026
2025-11-21513.00485.97-22.582302100Rotation Up014
2025-11-14442.00487.80-36.29718500Downward Expansion-5847
2025-11-07437.00491.73-37.57523400Downward Expansion-6049
2025-10-31433.00493.87-41.07414500Downward Expansion-6163
2025-10-24433.00495.87-37.83526200Downward Expansion-6469
2025-10-17423.00500.53-37.45615700Downward Expansion-7464
2025-10-10435.00506.00-36.78786100Downward Expansion-7053
2025-10-03433.00511.30-34.231054700Downward Expansion-7557
2025-09-26463.00516.07-29.45514700Downward Expansion-6258
2025-09-19456.00518.70-30.36730500Downward Expansion-6572
2025-09-12447.00521.80-31.71890600Downward Expansion-7179
2025-09-05464.00526.27-26.73664700Downward Expansion-6375
2025-08-29465.00534.50-26.52772800Downward Expansion-6464
2025-08-22457.00542.20-28.101478500Downward Expansion-6840
2025-08-15459.00550.33-29.522670000Downward Expansion-5328
2025-08-08550.00557.33-13.15516100Downward Expansion-820
2025-08-01544.00561.97-12.97649500Downward Expansion-2215
2025-07-25544.00567.10-15.37730200Downward Expansion-3631
2025-07-18499.00571.80-20.23702100Downward Expansion-6363
2025-07-11477.00577.83-24.24889400Downward Expansion-7570
2025-07-04485.00584.90-24.31624100Downward Expansion-7258
2025-06-27506.00591.90-22.52912100Downward Expansion-6253
2025-06-20505.00598.37-20.00279300Downward Expansion-6564
2025-06-13502.00604.57-20.08449100Downward Expansion-6871
2025-06-06500.00609.33-21.04413200Downward Expansion-7374
2025-05-30525.00610.73-18.42398300Downward Expansion-6154
2025-05-23520.00610.87-18.24680700Downward Expansion-6542
2025-05-16524.00610.17-19.70766600Downward Expansion-5531
2025-05-09569.00610.67-13.20201600Downward Expansion-3822
2025-05-02569.00608.90-12.47352900Downward Expansion-5536
2025-04-25568.00607.80-10.66651400Downward Expansion-6052
2025-04-18560.00607.03-10.25747500Downward Expansion-6157
2025-04-11501.00606.73-17.662121000Deceleration-4849
2025-04-04493.00608.53-20.121049600Deceleration-5647
2025-03-28573.00611.00-16.252356200Rotation Down-2531
2025-03-21587.00612.33-16.19722200Rotation Down-2551
2025-03-14594.00613.37-14.48958300Rotation Down-2664
2025-03-07576.00615.57-17.361799400Rotation Down-2561
2025-02-28542.00622.47-23.49577200Rotation Down-4265
2025-02-21549.00631.93-26.491157800Rotation Down-3837
2025-02-14581.00643.47-23.831802200Upward Expansion911
2025-02-07711.00654.80-6.83500100Upward Expansion3833
2025-01-31696.00660.80-11.26485500Rotation Up3129
2025-01-24701.00666.17-12.23422900Rotation Up3632
2025-01-17669.00671.30-13.85463600Rotation Up1724
2025-01-10689.00676.87-13.72808400Rotation Up2130
2025-01-03698.00683.03-14.92168000Rotation Up2837
2024-12-27685.00688.33-18.172103500Rotation Up743
2024-12-20680.00694.20-16.38844200Rotation Up950
2024-12-13689.00700.93-17.621181700Rotation Up943
2024-12-06695.00709.07-16.871156700Downward Expansion1645
2024-11-29700.00716.53-15.121243700Downward Expansion1738
2024-11-22691.00723.23-17.201491100Downward Expansion-1028
2024-11-15645.00730.83-24.244467200Downward Expansion-4848
2024-11-08542.00738.90-38.47781800Downward Expansion-6361
2024-11-01529.00750.93-38.76976700Downward Expansion-6563
2024-10-25499.00763.27-43.251492000Downward Expansion-7567
2024-10-18539.00778.50-41.60699700Downward Expansion-6765
2024-10-11516.00792.73-45.97992700Downward Expansion-7670
2024-10-04536.00806.30-43.681890000Downward Expansion-7377
2024-09-27545.00820.83-45.661736100Downward Expansion-7385
2024-09-20551.00835.53-43.331002600Downward Expansion-7590
2024-09-13555.00850.63-42.351784600Downward Expansion-7992
2024-09-06567.00864.03-41.972680400Downward Expansion-8494
2024-08-30613.00876.97-42.112812800Downward Expansion-8393
2024-08-23618.00889.03-42.264244600Downward Expansion-8791
2024-08-16660.00901.50-38.983544700Downward Expansion-8479
2024-08-09783.00911.53-22.671416500Downward Expansion-6636
2024-08-02826.00917.93-21.42689400Downward Expansion-4721
2024-07-26895.00922.43-19.34615700Downward Expansion-2717
2024-07-19921.00924.83-22.46486100Downward Expansion-2313
2024-07-12891.00923.80-27.55804800Downward Expansion-5132
2024-07-05857.00924.53-30.46475000Downward Expansion-5546
2024-06-28855.00926.17-29.03732200Downward Expansion-5856
2024-06-21836.00930.57-29.47992900Downward Expansion-6866
2024-06-14874.00936.50-27.34432900Downward Expansion-5658
2024-06-07857.00941.70-29.09550300Downward Expansion-6351
2024-05-31861.00950.53-29.07925600Downward Expansion-6235
2024-05-24882.00964.00-28.42829800Downward Expansion-5830
2024-05-17933.00974.27-25.202239300Downward Expansion-3820
2024-05-10919.00981.20-26.02869500Downward Expansion-5231
2024-05-03901.00993.70-28.28369600Downward Expansion-5637
2024-04-26919.001,007.47-26.68502800Downward Expansion-5543
2024-04-19887.001,024.00-27.93862700Downward Expansion-6348
2024-04-12903.001,040.70-31.61597100Downward Expansion-6037
2024-04-05899.001,058.43-31.52701000Downward Expansion-6339
2024-03-29956.001,076.57-30.29732300Downward Expansion-4027
2024-03-22966.001,090.37-31.081094000Downward Expansion-3926
2024-03-15923.001,103.60-31.101930800Downward Expansion-5330
2024-03-08972.001,117.70-29.991570900Downward Expansion-3021
2024-03-01986.001,130.07-29.971671200Downward Expansion-3926
2024-02-231,004.001,132.27-27.861912400Downward Expansion-4130
2024-02-16957.001,135.37-30.862535700Downward Expansion-4738
2024-02-09955.001,139.97-28.731226700Downward Expansion-4841
2024-02-02975.001,146.40-26.60597000Downward Expansion-4235
2024-01-26992.001,154.13-25.48673400Downward Expansion-4538
2024-01-19961.001,160.77-29.11711700Downward Expansion-4843
2024-01-12975.001,168.40-28.21674800Downward Expansion-6051
2024-01-05961.001,175.90-25.46350500Downward Expansion-6459
2023-12-29967.001,184.17-25.951295600Downward Expansion-6779
2023-12-22890.001,194.23-31.93835400Downward Expansion-7689
2023-12-15913.001,202.87-30.421319600Downward Expansion-7688
2023-12-08906.001,215.17-30.111586100Downward Expansion-8288
2023-12-01987.001,226.97-26.921694500Rotation Down-7782
2023-11-241,014.001,226.30-25.851008700Rotation Down-5167
2023-11-171,030.001,223.90-24.941966900Upward Expansion-4258
2023-11-101,122.001,222.40-15.932567500Upward Expansion-3235
2023-11-031,265.001,219.67-3.62706700Upward Expansion721
2023-10-271,190.001,213.07-6.11674800Upward Expansion923
2023-10-201,141.001,210.43-10.53960800Upward Expansion615
2023-10-131,294.001,209.63-1.63440100Upward Expansion4227
2023-10-061,314.001,205.874.62603200Upward Expansion5842
2023-09-291,415.001,199.4310.17833300Upward Expansion6559
Price vs TrendAbove+10.1%
Trend directionRising+0.4%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-25.0%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+15.5%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.0%
Relative strength directionImproving+29.1%
Price momentumPositive+24.4%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.79ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

72 / ยฑ100

+3.4 points since 2026-08-21

Energy

45 /100

-15.0 points since 2026-08-21

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance21
Rotation Up61
Upward Expansion78
Deceleration57
Rotation Down17
Downward Expansion5

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-09-18 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 11%Deceleration 1%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 61%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-08-072026-09-18Developing+4.8%
Balance2026-05-152026-07-31Developing+3.6%
Downward Expansion2026-02-272026-05-08Developing+3.1%
Balance2025-12-052026-02-20Developing-8.0%
Rotation Up2025-11-212025-11-28New-4.1%
Downward Expansion2025-04-182025-11-14Extended-21.1%
Deceleration2025-04-042025-04-11New+1.6%
Rotation Down2025-02-212025-03-28Developing+4.4%
Upward Expansion2025-02-072025-02-14New-18.3%
Rotation Up2024-12-132025-01-31Developing+1.0%
Downward Expansion2023-12-082024-12-06Extended-23.3%
Rotation Down2023-11-242023-12-01New-2.7%
Upward Expansion2023-09-012023-11-17Developing-24.8%
Rotation Up2023-08-112023-08-25New+1.5%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing69
Stage 2 ยท Advancing44
Stage 3 ยท Distribution40
Stage 4 ยท Declining26

Legacy result: Stage 1 ยท Stage 1C ยท Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
41/100
Current Relative Strength
-5.00
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+24.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+2.5%
Technology regime cohort
73th percentile234 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.81ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.79ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity JPY 468.80rising
Slow Activity JPY 449.82rising
Trend Reference JPY 440.53+10.1% close margin
Current Fair Value JPY 646.37-25.0% close margin
Structural low JPY 379.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.7%
Annualized volatility +29.8%
From structural high -6.4%
From structural low +28.0%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^N225 Regime survived Read
Near term8-6.9%-19.0% to +12.4%+37.5%+37.5%-6.4%+62.5%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate3-20.0%-28.0% to -8.4%+0.0%+0.0%-16.7%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended3-22.6%-28.0% to -2.4%+0.0%+0.0%-30.5%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2-32.1%-37.3% to -27.0%+0.0%+0.0%-65.3%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context