Weekly structural research · LSE · Consumer Cyclical

ASC Stage Analysis

ASOS Plc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close GBP 498.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and stable.

Direction 87−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 74/100directional strength

Maturity 43/100lifecycle context

Confidence 69/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widestable separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +47.9%GBP 336.70 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	498.00	316.83	65.42	5101320	Upward Expansion	87	74
2026-09-25	508.00	309.57	67.23	4111072	Upward Expansion	95	76
2026-09-18	421.50	302.15	40.70	1219590	Upward Expansion	71	67
2026-09-11	412.50	297.53	38.69	1763229	Upward Expansion	68	76
2026-09-04	421.50	293.20	40.23	883515	Upward Expansion	79	90
2026-08-28	419.00	288.78	40.28	393463	Upward Expansion	85	93
2026-08-21	396.00	285.83	33.46	226714	Upward Expansion	78	90
2026-08-14	392.00	283.18	33.27	118194	Upward Expansion	81	91
2026-08-07	394.50	280.05	32.53	427506	Upward Expansion	88	93
2026-07-31	355.50	276.82	19.86	228031	Upward Expansion	75	89
2026-07-24	347.50	274.47	18.52	109456	Upward Expansion	73	86
2026-07-17	345.50	271.85	18.76	359259	Rotation Up	77	83
2026-07-10	353.00	269.53	22.11	1066417	Rotation Up	59	72
2026-07-03	318.00	266.22	8.00	600211	Rotation Up	43	60
2026-06-26	291.00	264.22	0.09	332011	Rotation Up	31	54
2026-06-19	274.00	262.60	-4.92	288246	Rotation Up	20	39
2026-06-12	283.50	261.27	-3.20	269167	Downward Expansion	27	32
2026-06-05	277.00	260.78	-4.97	566740	Downward Expansion	2	15
2026-05-29	273.00	258.98	-7.30	2405187	Downward Expansion	-15	11
2026-05-22	243.50	258.37	-18.30	2650587	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2026-05-15	238.00	258.55	-18.71	2841585	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2026-05-08	217.50	258.43	-26.66	1317241	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2026-05-01	229.00	259.12	-24.33	3279845	Downward Expansion	-47	30
2026-04-24	260.00	260.40	-14.88	3623346	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2026-04-17	227.50	261.67	-28.00	940379	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2026-04-10	215.50	263.35	-32.09	1253076	Downward Expansion	-69	79
2026-04-03	217.00	265.35	-31.18	1089818	Rotation Down	-62	75
2026-03-27	223.50	267.57	-26.35	2719950	Rotation Down	-34	59
2026-03-20	220.00	269.37	-27.68	4550003	Deceleration	-40	53
2026-03-13	232.50	272.27	-26.71	1870804	Deceleration	-23	25
2026-03-06	280.00	274.77	-12.28	1034041	Deceleration	29	22
2026-02-27	285.50	276.17	-16.00	623172	Rotation Up	34	23
2026-02-20	283.00	276.83	-15.61	464724	Rotation Up	14	15
2026-02-13	282.50	279.35	-14.58	573439	Rotation Up	29	28
2026-02-06	289.00	281.18	-12.83	1153647	Rotation Up	33	45
2026-01-30	330.50	282.08	0.05	1375342	Rotation Up	50	65
2026-01-23	316.50	281.30	-4.38	1778974	Rotation Up	37	55
2026-01-16	298.00	281.00	-11.60	970587	Rotation Up	27	42
2026-01-09	297.50	281.22	-11.75	925209	Downward Expansion	29	29
2026-01-02	285.00	281.55	-14.90	1059829	Downward Expansion	0	13
2025-12-26	269.00	282.65	-20.10	349996	Downward Expansion	-25	17
2025-12-19	276.00	284.13	-19.43	920205	Downward Expansion	-27	15
2025-12-12	253.50	285.33	-24.99	989496	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2025-12-05	258.00	287.60	-24.74	1173584	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-11-28	242.50	288.32	-30.40	3901622	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2025-11-21	234.00	290.02	-32.31	1845018	Downward Expansion	-63	41
2025-11-14	269.00	292.00	-24.25	2132865	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2025-11-07	223.00	293.48	-37.68	1357649	Downward Expansion	-76	77
2025-10-31	254.50	295.27	-29.93	952717	Downward Expansion	-62	73
2025-10-24	249.00	295.60	-31.58	1031102	Downward Expansion	-63	72
2025-10-17	234.50	297.14	-34.23	1051782	Downward Expansion	-76	70
2025-10-10	238.00	299.38	-34.43	1457036	Rotation Down	-77	59
2025-10-03	267.50	299.78	-27.73	2521758	Rotation Down	-38	36
2025-09-26	298.00	300.49	-18.72	985692	Rotation Down	-29	35
2025-09-19	278.00	301.69	-24.34	2295686	Rotation Down	-35	51
2025-09-12	275.50	304.29	-26.39	772111	Rotation Down	-28	46
2025-09-05	283.50	307.71	-24.46	1059484	Balance	-34	35
2025-08-29	277.50	311.45	-26.64	1224280	Balance	-35	25
2025-08-22	307.00	316.36	-20.49	962313	Balance	-6	11
2025-08-15	307.50	319.45	-19.15	619750	Balance	2	6
2025-08-08	322.00	322.77	-15.31	878644	Balance	21	24
2025-08-01	305.50	325.27	-19.71	948694	Balance	16	21
2025-07-25	358.50	329.40	-6.74	865579	Balance	33	38
2025-07-18	337.50	331.94	-11.14	1009699	Balance	3	8
2025-07-11	316.00	334.01	-16.59	620047	Balance	-24	13
2025-07-04	307.00	337.05	-18.24	949525	Balance	-29	16
2025-06-27	307.50	339.71	-18.25	622959	Balance	-19	12
2025-06-20	304.50	342.01	-19.15	1737141	Balance	-19	11
2025-06-13	307.50	343.98	-19.35	1160331	Balance	-19	13
2025-06-06	318.00	345.94	-16.80	1086648	Downward Expansion	-19	15
2025-05-30	313.50	347.43	-17.72	578198	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2025-05-23	312.00	349.14	-17.94	931065	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2025-05-16	321.50	351.38	-15.43	1302256	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2025-05-09	279.50	353.24	-25.59	831089	Downward Expansion	-49	32
2025-05-02	293.50	357.94	-22.54	1289840	Downward Expansion	-44	32
2025-04-25	293.50	362.99	-21.19	1900284	Downward Expansion	-47	38
2025-04-18	313.50	367.54	-14.67	958627	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2025-04-11	276.50	371.77	-22.05	1498022	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2025-04-04	264.50	377.06	-26.53	1304656	Downward Expansion	-73	79
2025-03-28	295.20	382.57	-24.11	2352460	Downward Expansion	-65	79
2025-03-21	301.80	384.81	-22.77	5093239	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2025-03-14	250.00	386.65	-36.13	1496531	Downward Expansion	-90	90
2025-03-07	288.60	390.31	-27.15	1571644	Downward Expansion	-82	79
2025-02-28	334.20	392.55	-17.34	891561	Balance	-70	61
2025-02-21	356.00	393.29	-10.81	860453	Balance	-33	26
2025-02-14	378.00	393.59	-6.34	842377	Balance	14	9
2025-02-07	395.80	393.09	-1.92	881946	Upward Expansion	30	14
2025-01-31	424.80	392.24	5.42	2550955	Upward Expansion	53	23
2025-01-24	399.60	390.36	1.22	613549	Upward Expansion	46	22
2025-01-17	407.00	388.93	2.96	1209543	Upward Expansion	51	36
2025-01-10	397.00	387.19	3.49	1031806	Upward Expansion	52	42
2025-01-03	429.60	385.75	12.24	1320657	Upward Expansion	61	52
2024-12-27	434.60	383.97	14.67	1181352	Deceleration	54	36
2024-12-20	399.60	381.93	6.21	2268169	Deceleration	34	22
2024-12-13	407.20	380.81	5.16	1098145	Deceleration	17	11
2024-12-06	386.80	379.57	-0.39	916035	Deceleration	-13	12
2024-11-29	376.60	378.39	-2.98	976461	Deceleration	-17	19
2024-11-22	363.60	377.70	-6.28	1760864	Deceleration	-21	25
2024-11-15	366.20	377.05	-3.53	1223235	Deceleration	-19	26
2024-11-08	362.60	376.73	-4.83	3244744	Deceleration	-11	25
2024-11-01	365.00	376.08	-5.73	1529428	Deceleration	9	20
2024-10-25	379.00	375.71	-3.19	1156200	Upward Expansion	28	17
2024-10-18	377.40	375.86	-5.12	1233369	Upward Expansion	38	28
2024-10-11	420.40	374.53	6.65	711242	Upward Expansion	64	65
2024-10-04	445.00	371.96	12.57	956293	Upward Expansion	73	82
2024-09-27	430.00	368.96	8.33	890552	Upward Expansion	65	80
2024-09-20	440.60	367.02	12.28	1454180	Upward Expansion	77	82
2024-09-13	435.00	364.58	10.44	1507147	Upward Expansion	78	75
2024-09-06	429.80	363.41	10.35	7678026	Upward Expansion	72	58
2024-08-30	362.40	361.50	-9.16	813769	Balance	-31	16
2024-08-23	357.00	361.58	-10.61	557004	Balance	-36	18
2024-08-16	360.00	362.22	-10.04	965179	Balance	-31	15
2024-08-09	355.60	362.47	-9.95	954108	Balance	-33	15
2024-08-02	356.40	363.33	-10.27	618734	Balance	-13	6
2024-07-26	365.20	364.37	-9.80	690636	Balance	13	10
2024-07-19	363.00	366.39	-9.27	1063589	Balance	-17	8
2024-07-12	370.20	368.47	-8.81	1277368	Balance	-21	9
2024-07-05	368.40	369.62	-8.79	945979	Balance	-24	14
2024-06-28	356.60	370.44	-11.33	915984	Balance	-32	15
2024-06-21	355.00	371.47	-12.76	1552195	Balance	-29	12
2024-06-14	353.60	372.16	-12.45	1094479	Balance	-19	12
2024-06-07	376.40	373.35	-8.10	923827	Balance	-5	12
2024-05-31	373.40	373.78	-9.07	1964166	Balance	-10	10
2024-05-24	365.80	373.73	-11.40	973463	Downward Expansion	-29	14
2024-05-17	370.20	374.39	-11.75	1764677	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2024-05-10	351.20	375.34	-16.85	1020198	Downward Expansion	-49	26
2024-05-03	356.00	376.28	-14.22	2163496	Downward Expansion	-48	28
2024-04-26	344.00	377.36	-17.81	1553250	Downward Expansion	-55	32
2024-04-19	356.80	378.71	-13.77	2728238	Downward Expansion	-48	24
2024-04-12	343.00	379.59	-19.73	1672997	Downward Expansion	-60	34
2024-04-05	354.00	381.61	-17.64	2061047	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2024-03-29	383.40	383.19	-12.89	3256263	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2024-03-22	337.50	385.40	-24.66	1533910	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2024-03-15	343.40	387.11	-22.85	2609150	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2024-03-08	354.80	388.60	-21.07	1976442	Downward Expansion	-58	29
2024-03-01	371.90	390.91	-19.12	3223490	Downward Expansion	-49	22
2024-02-23	367.30	393.14	-22.07	1937759	Downward Expansion	-53	26
2024-02-16	400.00	394.72	-16.68	2320265	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2024-02-09	372.40	394.57	-22.26	1326593	Downward Expansion	-54	51
2024-02-02	365.00	393.81	-25.49	1691442	Balance	-58	47
2024-01-26	376.10	392.85	-25.07	1870441	Balance	-40	28
2024-01-19	367.60	393.07	-26.26	5188169	Balance	-15	11
2024-01-12	381.30	393.83	-26.22	2740259	Balance	26	16
2024-01-05	387.60	393.47	-26.57	2914598	Balance	34	31
2023-12-29	425.70	391.38	-20.39	1081988	Balance	59	49
2023-12-22	425.60	388.87	-20.33	3658794	Balance	50	32
2023-12-15	404.50	388.22	-23.36	4335980	Balance	28	12
2023-12-08	393.20	389.61	-25.62	3177520	Balance	-2	3
2023-12-01	387.30	393.33	-27.01	3935405	Downward Expansion	-44	20
2023-11-24	375.90	403.65	-29.41	2811006	Downward Expansion	-50	25
2023-11-17	389.10	415.68	-27.78	2987915	Downward Expansion	-45	23
2023-11-10	389.30	428.86	-27.18	4179223	Downward Expansion	-47	24
2023-11-03	372.00	439.26	-31.94	5740232	Downward Expansion	-57	30
2023-10-27	385.60	452.01	-28.90	2941342	Downward Expansion	-52	29
2023-10-20	398.70	466.51	-28.11	2464752	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2023-10-13	379.50	478.07	-33.68	4475519	Downward Expansion	-57	38

Price vs TrendAbove+57.2%

Trend directionRising+15.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+47.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+53.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+65.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+57.4%

Price momentumPositive+129.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.18×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

87 / ±100

+7.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

74 /100

-16.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ASC Directional State ↗ ASC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance4

Rotation Up81

Upward Expansion88

Deceleration55

Rotation Down13

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 25%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 16%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 39%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-10-02	Developing	+43.3%
Rotation Up	2026-06-19	2026-07-17	Developing	+26.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-10	2026-06-12	Developing	+31.6%
Rotation Down	2026-03-27	2026-04-03	New	-2.9%
Deceleration	2026-03-06	2026-03-20	New	-21.4%
Rotation Up	2026-01-16	2026-02-27	Developing	-4.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-17	2026-01-09	Established	+26.9%
Rotation Down	2025-09-12	2025-10-10	Developing	-13.6%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-09-05	Established	-7.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-06-06	Established	+10.2%
Balance	2025-02-14	2025-02-28	New	-11.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-02-07	Developing	-7.9%
Deceleration	2024-11-01	2024-12-27	Developing	+19.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-06	2024-10-25	Developing	-11.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution51

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 88/100
Current Relative Strength: 65.42
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +129.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +129.2%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 56th percentile25 in cohort

Test ASC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume4.41×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.18×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ASC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 468.87rising

Slow Activity GBP 363.26rising

Trend Reference GBP 316.83+57.2% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 336.70+47.9% close margin

Structural low GBP 206.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.7%

Annualized volatility +47.0%

From structural high -3.7%

From structural low +141.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	-1.1%-21.3% to +14.0%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-6.6%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-38.4%-62.1% to -10.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-36.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	-42.1%-51.4% to -32.9%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-42.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-46.9%-59.8% to -34.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-51.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ASC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map