Weekly structural research · LSE · Industrials

AVAP Stage Analysis

Avation PLC

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close GBP 142.25Tenure NewBenchmark ^FTSE
Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and stable.
Direction 55−100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 26/100directional strength
Maturity 12/100lifecycle context
Confidence 78/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedstable separation
Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +1.9%GBP 139.62 · improving
Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values · 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-09142.25136.02-0.123340548Balance5526
2026-10-02139.00135.71-2.06646678Balance4418
2026-09-25139.00135.71-4.73200194Balance3414
2026-09-18136.00135.88-7.06576473Balance2612
2026-09-11138.25136.01-6.09146107Upward Expansion3416
2026-09-04138.00136.07-8.3916271Upward Expansion3518
2026-08-28138.00136.32-8.9121214Upward Expansion4930
2026-08-21138.00136.43-9.40566080Upward Expansion2231
2026-08-14138.00136.67-9.3717515Upward Expansion2436
2026-08-07140.00136.78-9.88122406Balance3237
2026-07-31139.50136.82-10.4949104Balance3130
2026-07-24138.50136.82-10.59236029Balance1717
2026-07-17135.00136.82-12.2993664Balance-1411
2026-07-10137.00136.95-10.7422254Balance-1012
2026-07-03137.00137.02-12.8441185Balance-126
2026-06-26136.50137.10-12.3245324Balance-2513
2026-06-19135.50137.35-12.2729623Balance-3015
2026-06-12134.00137.47-14.6647756Balance-3314
2026-06-05133.50137.70-14.70155922Balance-3213
2026-05-29136.50138.12-13.52139965Balance-157
2026-05-22136.75138.50-14.23670559Balance-2414
2026-05-15135.00139.06-13.5299936Balance-2716
2026-05-08135.00139.88-14.272433951Downward Expansion-2818
2026-05-01138.50140.74-13.61881909Downward Expansion-2719
2026-04-24135.50141.57-16.00650466Downward Expansion-4124
2026-04-17135.00142.47-19.02852593Downward Expansion-5842
2026-04-10135.00143.41-18.97574642Downward Expansion-6366
2026-04-03126.75144.29-23.18217364Downward Expansion-7181
2026-03-27123.50145.38-22.03825968Downward Expansion-8583
2026-03-20130.00146.55-17.971226328Downward Expansion-7767
2026-03-13133.00147.50-19.28863099Downward Expansion-7149
2026-03-06139.00148.35-16.262947378Downward Expansion-4729
2026-02-27144.00149.01-18.601713040Downward Expansion-2616
2026-02-20140.00149.48-19.59686332Downward Expansion-5329
2026-02-13140.00150.20-18.07516680Downward Expansion-4120
2026-02-06145.50150.91-14.50809507Downward Expansion-3220
2026-01-30141.50151.48-15.88905259Downward Expansion-3722
2026-01-23145.00152.00-13.391431147Downward Expansion-4026
2026-01-16141.50152.33-16.50845769Downward Expansion-4635
2026-01-09141.00152.81-16.191615115Downward Expansion-5944
2026-01-02139.50153.45-16.03373586Downward Expansion-6148
2025-12-26138.50153.63-16.34136353Downward Expansion-6552
2025-12-19139.00153.91-16.73459081Downward Expansion-6551
2025-12-12139.00154.24-15.06646050Downward Expansion-6867
2025-12-05139.50154.61-15.37649998Downward Expansion-6973
2025-11-28144.00154.93-13.58415174Rotation Down-6574
2025-11-21139.00155.03-15.41420089Rotation Down-4971
2025-11-14141.00155.31-16.13681211Rotation Down-5066
2025-11-07146.00155.39-13.674637163Upward Expansion-3243
2025-10-31148.00155.19-13.291603157Upward Expansion-2927
2025-10-24153.50154.66-10.052666202Upward Expansion159
2025-10-17159.50154.43-4.181946223Upward Expansion4927
2025-10-10160.99154.06-4.35780793Upward Expansion5433
2025-10-03163.49153.64-3.591376162Upward Expansion5843
2025-09-26162.49153.23-1.99492820Upward Expansion5638
2025-09-19162.99152.88-0.83232282Upward Expansion5936
2025-09-12161.49152.21-2.301564606Deceleration5531
2025-09-05159.49151.53-2.64773456Deceleration3823
2025-08-29158.49150.94-2.90356727Deceleration3824
2025-08-22158.49150.43-4.15250435Upward Expansion4126
2025-08-15158.49149.94-2.11253619Upward Expansion4532
2025-08-08158.99149.49-1.12121137Upward Expansion5842
2025-08-01157.99149.11-1.30381852Upward Expansion6257
2025-07-25161.49148.810.51426249Upward Expansion6770
2025-07-18161.49148.542.17510971Upward Expansion7069
2025-07-11162.49148.283.661370584Upward Expansion7473
2025-07-04156.99148.161.691088086Rotation Up6266
2025-06-27154.99148.230.84915052Rotation Up3046
2025-06-20155.99148.341.821622348Balance3441
2025-06-13159.99148.743.713135123Balance4435
2025-06-06144.99149.14-5.72825854Balance-169
2025-05-30146.99149.76-3.82421197Balance-812
2025-05-23148.99150.79-1.96436864Balance-813
2025-05-16149.99151.68-0.91500131Balance-713
2025-05-09148.99152.280.01246892Balance-2215
2025-05-02146.99152.21-1.47617575Downward Expansion-3517
2025-04-25147.49151.911.32533306Downward Expansion-5141
2025-04-18143.49151.490.65226348Downward Expansion-5452
2025-04-11139.99151.202.43749287Downward Expansion-5651
2025-04-04131.99151.10-4.14837595Balance-7249
2025-03-28146.49151.07-0.87204511Balance-3117
2025-03-21148.49150.620.81736193Balance-011
2025-03-14148.49150.061.20437961Balance-411
2025-03-07150.99149.362.632060130Rotation Down-98
2025-02-28151.99148.722.103480892Rotation Down-1316
2025-02-21142.99147.90-2.00591467Rotation Down-3239
2025-02-14140.99147.48-4.071425991Rotation Down-2741
2025-02-07141.99147.02-3.01607565Rotation Down-2745
2025-01-31142.99146.78-1.98651005Rotation Down-2442
2025-01-24143.99146.470.742482779Deceleration-2130
2025-01-17144.99146.331.531516851Deceleration-115
2025-01-10147.49145.976.631160255Deceleration513
2025-01-03148.99145.558.21505152Deceleration1916
2024-12-27153.49145.3812.73242859Deceleration2919
2024-12-20153.49145.0313.989245677Deceleration3321
2024-12-13158.99144.6115.35953892Deceleration3822
2024-12-06158.99143.9515.561284644Upward Expansion4330
2024-11-29158.49142.6815.7711004921Upward Expansion5740
2024-11-22167.99141.2623.471256544Upward Expansion6355
2024-11-15171.99139.4329.97904164Upward Expansion6880
2024-11-08163.49137.4024.071241338Upward Expansion6786
2024-11-01177.99135.6633.993677339Upward Expansion8694
2024-10-25175.49133.6832.021539075Upward Expansion9495
2024-10-18167.99131.7725.933790204Upward Expansion9385
2024-10-11146.99130.0712.53758285Upward Expansion7765
2024-10-04137.99128.935.90489350Deceleration6045
2024-09-27134.99128.103.471863593Deceleration5033
2024-09-20134.74127.404.73187292Deceleration3827
2024-09-13136.99126.826.23204354Deceleration4527
2024-09-06131.24126.313.22112359Deceleration2814
2024-08-30132.99125.972.46109681Deceleration3015
2024-08-23131.49125.532.19140736Deceleration1310
2024-08-16127.49125.20-0.45134272Deceleration1010
2024-08-09131.99125.034.981178931Deceleration2417
2024-08-02127.24124.871.39217344Deceleration2317
2024-07-26130.49124.812.54255819Deceleration3019
2024-07-19126.99124.561.31413880Deceleration3319
2024-07-12134.99124.446.28297603Upward Expansion4227
2024-07-05133.49124.145.76267806Upward Expansion4530
2024-06-28139.99123.9611.47295594Upward Expansion6447
2024-06-21133.99123.395.80137463Upward Expansion6258
2024-06-14134.99123.197.74280335Upward Expansion6679
2024-06-07143.99122.7713.62582610Upward Expansion7586
2024-05-31142.99121.9612.611197890Rotation Up7884
2024-05-24140.99120.9910.771771750Rotation Up4461
2024-05-17138.99119.648.171899530Deceleration4138
2024-05-10120.99118.37-5.77555299Deceleration-2313
2024-05-03115.99117.72-7.26243824Deceleration-2635
2024-04-26112.99117.27-8.931309301Deceleration-2833
2024-04-12110.99116.94-9.12297590Balance-3828
2024-04-05111.49116.67-8.00130689Balance-3821
2024-03-22118.49116.37-2.76520124Rotation Down1512
2024-03-15117.99115.86-0.80354806Rotation Down-1822
2024-03-08116.99115.34-0.94851074Rotation Down-2243
2024-03-01112.99114.92-4.671103058Deceleration-3051
2024-02-23112.99114.86-4.99258293Deceleration-1640
2024-02-16113.99114.57-4.25265150Deceleration-1019
2024-02-09117.49114.620.40305951Deceleration1015
2024-02-02121.49114.813.16420842Deceleration3221
2024-01-26120.99114.892.651533845Deceleration3523
2024-01-19119.99114.974.32542454Deceleration4025
2024-01-12121.49115.043.70200820Upward Expansion4332
2024-01-05122.49115.224.06435004Upward Expansion4531
2023-12-29126.99115.347.73176483Upward Expansion6240
2023-12-22125.49115.267.14628725Rotation Up5940
2023-12-15122.99115.266.83440196Rotation Up3134
2023-12-08123.49115.077.701765590Rotation Up3439
2023-12-01125.99114.8210.37763887Rotation Up3861
2023-11-24127.99114.4912.903697781Rotation Up3666
2023-11-17122.99114.028.771314379Rotation Up2662
2023-11-10127.99113.7715.772590133Rotation Up4261
2023-10-27122.49113.4612.212527968Downward Expansion3235
2023-10-20119.49113.378.12419149Downward Expansion-514
2023-10-13113.99113.420.721269308Downward Expansion-2818
2023-09-29100.49113.86-11.1814313083Downward Expansion-5939
2023-09-22100.99114.91-11.54415165Downward Expansion-6245
Price vs TrendAbove+4.6%
Trend directionFalling-0.6%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+1.9%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.9%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-0.1%
Relative strength directionImproving+10.6%
Price momentumPositive+5.4%
Volume balanceDemand-led5.95×
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

55 / ±100

+20.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

26 /100

+9.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AVAP Directional State ↗ AVAP Momentum Intelligence ↗
Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance38
Rotation Up49
Upward Expansion75
Deceleration57
Rotation Down21
Downward Expansion4

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 21%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Balance2026-09-182026-10-09New+4.6%
Upward Expansion2026-08-142026-09-11Developing+0.2%
Balance2026-05-152026-08-07Established+3.7%
Downward Expansion2025-12-052026-05-08Established-3.2%
Rotation Down2025-11-142025-11-28New+2.1%
Upward Expansion2025-09-192025-11-07Developing-10.4%
Deceleration2025-08-292025-09-12New+1.9%
Upward Expansion2025-07-112025-08-22Developing-2.5%
Rotation Up2025-06-272025-07-04New+1.3%
Balance2025-05-092025-06-20Developing+4.7%
Downward Expansion2025-04-112025-05-02New+5.0%
Balance2025-03-142025-04-04New-11.1%
Rotation Down2025-01-312025-03-07Developing+5.6%
Deceleration2024-12-132025-01-24Developing-9.4%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 · Basing65
Stage 2 · Advancing64
Stage 3 · Distribution49
Stage 4 · Declining36

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
64/100
Current Relative Strength
-0.12
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+5.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+5.8%
Industrials regime cohort
84th percentile25 in cohort
Test AVAP trend persistence
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume10.26×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume5.95×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AVAP Volume & Price ↗
Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity GBP 139.63rising
Slow Activity GBP 137.52rising
Trend Reference GBP 136.02+4.6% close margin
Current Fair Value GBP 139.62+1.9% close margin
Structural low GBP 121.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.9%
Annualized volatility +9.3%
From structural high -13.8%
From structural low +17.6%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^FTSE Regime survived Read
Near term16-1.1%-17.2% to +13.8%+43.8%+43.8%-0.5%+43.8%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate9+2.2%-36.9% to +43.8%+66.7%+66.7%-2.8%+22.2%Usable descriptive sample
Extended5+8.8%-28.5% to +65.0%+80.0%+80.0%+10.8%+0.0%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle3+6.1%-10.4% to +7.5%+66.7%+66.7%-1.0%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context