Weekly structural research · IST · Basic Materials

ERCB Stage Analysis

Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TRY 38.04Tenure DevelopingBenchmark XU100.IS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -83−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 90/100directional strength

Maturity 44/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -58.7%TRY 92.01 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	38.04	52.20	-38.52	4498610	Downward Expansion	-83	90
2026-09-18	37.36	52.81	-42.35	3333790	Downward Expansion	-90	87
2026-09-11	44.78	53.53	-37.64	6656650	Downward Expansion	-69	77
2026-09-04	43.32	54.15	-38.66	2738865	Downward Expansion	-81	83
2026-08-28	46.14	54.77	-38.50	4077767	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2026-08-21	46.32	55.56	-38.65	640590	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2026-08-14	48.10	56.39	-35.69	599752	Downward Expansion	-66	47
2026-08-07	47.90	57.16	-35.21	551592	Downward Expansion	-69	47
2026-07-31	48.14	57.86	-34.28	761204	Downward Expansion	-71	55
2026-07-24	54.80	58.62	-28.79	1919659	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2026-07-17	49.32	59.46	-36.89	498850	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2026-07-10	48.06	60.28	-40.78	607448	Downward Expansion	-72	76
2026-07-03	49.60	61.11	-40.12	2700940	Balance	-68	65
2026-06-26	48.78	62.11	-41.29	1763736	Balance	-59	36
2026-06-19	58.45	63.17	-32.78	408134	Balance	-15	10
2026-06-12	58.00	64.14	-30.23	876036	Balance	-17	9
2026-06-05	61.80	64.48	-25.05	1328229	Balance	-8	8
2026-05-29	62.95	64.99	-24.21	2530427	Balance	-9	7
2026-05-22	55.65	65.47	-34.37	4000667	Downward Expansion	-42	23
2026-05-15	59.25	66.17	-33.67	8482182	Downward Expansion	-30	16
2026-05-08	59.85	66.59	-36.83	4426919	Downward Expansion	-29	24
2026-05-01	58.15	67.11	-36.82	3316699	Downward Expansion	-33	24
2026-04-24	58.75	67.76	-36.85	5499142	Downward Expansion	-36	27
2026-04-17	63.50	68.48	-33.51	8290810	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2026-04-10	56.35	69.09	-39.62	8237244	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2026-04-03	58.00	69.66	-33.31	16741898	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2026-03-27	47.36	70.39	-45.20	8251452	Downward Expansion	-82	92
2026-03-20	50.60	71.52	-43.85	2596145	Downward Expansion	-77	87
2026-03-13	53.35	72.53	-41.82	4255508	Downward Expansion	-75	85
2026-03-06	53.45	73.64	-41.12	5362415	Downward Expansion	-78	83
2026-02-27	56.15	74.60	-42.99	5907762	Downward Expansion	-75	77
2026-02-20	58.95	75.43	-41.84	10653253	Downward Expansion	-70	65
2026-02-13	63.35	76.17	-39.36	9187241	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2026-02-06	62.00	76.66	-38.46	33899543	Balance	-64	43
2026-01-30	69.80	77.15	-33.06	12565156	Balance	-50	38
2026-01-23	71.40	77.35	-27.78	8780686	Balance	-49	41
2026-01-16	71.15	77.36	-26.87	16518923	Balance	-50	39
2026-01-09	68.95	77.21	-27.13	10451691	Balance	-55	41
2026-01-02	70.95	77.12	-21.26	18237257	Balance	-23	18
2025-12-26	79.80	77.13	-10.75	37979560	Balance	4	4
2025-12-19	74.05	76.83	-18.09	21076044	Balance	-18	9
2025-12-12	73.00	76.85	-19.81	18876303	Balance	11	10
2025-12-05	79.50	76.96	-11.08	42324674	Balance	32	17
2025-11-28	80.60	76.92	-9.69	44890166	Balance	34	17
2025-11-21	87.40	76.79	-2.93	45057769	Balance	49	21
2025-11-14	68.45	76.62	-21.74	1495438	Balance	-33	30
2025-11-07	77.00	77.06	-15.57	1247903	Balance	-11	19
2025-10-31	77.45	77.24	-15.97	653290	Balance	-11	23
2025-10-24	76.55	77.42	-17.29	1400217	Balance	-11	25
2025-10-17	71.85	77.74	-17.33	860589	Balance	-34	27
2025-10-10	75.50	78.04	-17.91	1283033	Balance	-11	7
2025-10-03	77.65	78.73	-17.26	991871	Balance	-2	8
2025-09-26	80.40	79.14	-17.08	3176148	Balance	3	8
2025-09-19	81.70	79.35	-17.27	2428387	Balance	8	10
2025-09-12	73.40	79.52	-19.53	1331319	Balance	-22	15
2025-09-05	79.85	79.98	-16.00	1988609	Rotation Up	15	17
2025-08-29	81.25	80.30	-19.24	2800734	Rotation Up	19	29
2025-08-22	80.90	80.55	-20.63	3590256	Rotation Up	20	38
2025-08-15	86.60	80.94	-11.65	2915128	Balance	34	42
2025-08-08	82.45	81.23	-17.06	4265242	Balance	5	23
2025-08-01	81.05	81.75	-17.25	1898708	Balance	-1	18
2025-07-25	81.15	82.52	-16.93	4408820	Downward Expansion	-12	20
2025-07-18	78.10	83.11	-18.50	2134690	Downward Expansion	-33	24
2025-07-11	76.65	83.93	-20.49	1596421	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2025-07-04	75.85	84.86	-21.28	2334329	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-06-27	71.65	85.91	-19.35	1874827	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2025-06-20	66.65	86.81	-23.93	2149081	Downward Expansion	-74	81
2025-06-13	66.30	87.72	-25.87	1384003	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2025-06-06	71.20	88.67	-22.59	876881	Downward Expansion	-70	68
2025-05-30	70.75	89.30	-19.78	1626269	Downward Expansion	-74	65
2025-05-23	74.75	89.92	-19.01	1087518	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2025-05-16	76.25	90.36	-20.79	1920601	Downward Expansion	-66	50
2025-05-09	78.15	90.88	-17.30	2082075	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2025-05-02	76.70	91.34	-17.87	1663890	Downward Expansion	-71	58
2025-04-25	82.45	91.78	-15.05	1516014	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2025-04-18	81.50	92.20	-15.85	1706971	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2025-04-11	82.50	92.75	-16.50	2465701	Downward Expansion	-61	56
2025-04-04	82.70	93.38	-17.32	1004901	Downward Expansion	-62	38
2025-03-28	86.30	93.93	-17.20	2637105	Downward Expansion	-54	30
2025-03-21	80.95	94.28	-18.28	3093929	Downward Expansion	-71	38
2025-03-14	96.00	94.78	-20.37	2922136	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2025-03-07	90.10	94.91	-24.32	1397278	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-02-28	86.75	95.33	-22.33	1535941	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2025-02-21	86.70	96.24	-23.58	3368984	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2025-02-14	87.30	97.35	-26.12	994015	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2025-02-07	89.35	98.45	-25.98	1030192	Balance	-61	54
2025-01-31	88.70	99.56	-27.74	1193690	Balance	-54	38
2025-01-24	92.70	100.58	-26.07	1259520	Balance	-43	25
2025-01-17	95.20	101.54	-23.81	1162002	Balance	-32	17
2025-01-10	98.20	102.55	-21.51	1817840	Balance	-7	9
2025-01-03	104.00	103.41	-18.82	2129055	Balance	1	21
2024-12-27	99.00	103.94	-22.93	1727151	Balance	-3	20
2024-12-20	102.50	104.93	-18.50	2980971	Balance	-2	23
2024-12-13	104.60	106.04	-20.87	2266222	Balance	3	21
2024-12-06	107.50	107.32	-18.95	4302311	Downward Expansion	4	14
2024-11-29	98.65	108.77	-22.86	2461026	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2024-11-22	94.00	110.18	-26.09	2729436	Downward Expansion	-44	32
2024-11-15	94.70	111.74	-24.80	4441251	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2024-11-08	89.95	113.72	-27.46	2265285	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2024-11-01	89.60	115.83	-25.92	1990410	Downward Expansion	-66	54
2024-10-25	87.80	117.78	-28.22	2113310	Downward Expansion	-73	59
2024-10-18	91.90	120.13	-24.64	2681109	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2024-10-11	91.85	122.45	-26.01	5047697	Downward Expansion	-67	58
2024-10-04	90.00	125.21	-29.86	2807876	Downward Expansion	-76	61
2024-09-27	95.05	128.54	-31.64	2248605	Downward Expansion	-70	58
2024-09-20	97.85	132.04	-31.17	2809397	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2024-09-13	101.50	134.00	-27.76	6572499	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2024-09-06	99.25	136.03	-30.53	5888757	Downward Expansion	-68	83
2024-08-30	96.75	137.61	-33.24	1569936	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2024-08-23	96.05	139.05	-33.15	2497195	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2024-08-16	99.95	140.05	-32.09	2104591	Downward Expansion	-86	93
2024-08-09	102.50	140.67	-31.67	2048840	Downward Expansion	-88	89
2024-08-02	114.10	141.16	-28.78	2334478	Downward Expansion	-73	56
2024-07-26	120.10	141.25	-28.75	3573952	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2024-07-19	120.10	141.28	-31.13	1636206	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2024-07-12	122.70	141.52	-29.86	1831578	Downward Expansion	-62	63
2024-07-05	119.30	141.59	-31.05	1663936	Rotation Down	-70	75
2024-06-28	121.60	141.70	-29.15	1540692	Rotation Down	-41	66
2024-06-21	125.50	141.34	-28.42	606963	Rotation Down	-38	64
2024-06-14	123.90	141.07	-27.97	1702420	Rotation Down	-41	63
2024-06-07	120.00	140.78	-28.68	2331285	Rotation Down	-40	58
2024-05-31	128.60	140.82	-26.20	2520059	Deceleration	-30	39
2024-05-24	135.90	140.71	-24.77	2811120	Deceleration	-2	15
2024-05-17	143.00	140.54	-21.20	4937864	Deceleration	5	12
2024-05-10	150.90	139.91	-13.94	8399863	Deceleration	11	12
2024-05-03	141.00	139.10	-20.12	3770254	Deceleration	6	13
2024-04-26	140.80	139.18	-17.69	3745767	Deceleration	17	17
2024-04-19	154.00	139.19	-8.38	4286502	Deceleration	29	21
2024-04-12	153.30	138.74	-10.19	692811	Deceleration	32	23
2024-04-05	148.00	138.00	-11.87	4002309	Upward Expansion	38	21
2024-03-29	158.50	137.57	-1.17	4506779	Upward Expansion	57	41
2024-03-22	161.50	136.66	0.70	5293663	Upward Expansion	63	58
2024-03-15	174.50	135.47	11.88	8133223	Upward Expansion	66	77
2024-03-08	190.00	134.23	17.22	15146812	Upward Expansion	78	85
2024-03-01	200.20	132.64	23.93	17893331	Rotation Up	92	89
2024-02-23	156.50	130.97	-5.95	7425178	Rotation Up	43	67
2024-02-16	162.50	130.25	-1.63	8809777	Rotation Up	42	60
2024-02-09	146.60	129.29	-9.62	6853590	Balance	30	41
2024-02-02	139.90	128.30	-10.63	9128791	Balance	2	8
2024-01-26	126.00	127.77	-17.19	5528411	Balance	-42	21
2024-01-19	118.50	127.33	-19.58	4873471	Balance	-48	30
2024-01-12	117.20	127.00	-21.29	2670529	Balance	-48	22
2024-01-05	117.00	126.85	-18.86	3111900	Balance	-38	17
2023-12-29	120.80	126.72	-15.60	4087970	Balance	-33	17
2023-12-22	127.40	126.28	-13.36	8720507	Balance	-7	7
2023-12-15	124.80	125.01	-20.90	6550700	Rotation Down	-24	18
2023-12-08	122.50	123.72	-22.92	7049381	Rotation Down	-28	33
2023-12-01	110.80	122.13	-32.18	1916485	Rotation Down	-29	44
2023-11-24	117.40	121.03	-28.15	3389796	Balance	-22	34
2023-11-17	115.40	120.00	-29.24	2714696	Balance	-6	21
2023-11-10	121.20	119.27	-26.11	4479747	Balance	3	12
2023-11-03	125.20	118.46	-23.90	4385787	Balance	10	13
2023-10-27	130.80	117.54	-21.03	7513334	Balance	21	12
2023-10-20	124.10	116.45	-23.37	10426611	Upward Expansion	30	16
2023-10-13	126.50	115.86	-27.67	4000594	Upward Expansion	51	31
2023-10-06	143.40	115.36	-21.24	6826644	Upward Expansion	60	39

Price vs TrendBelow-27.1%

Trend directionFalling-12.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-58.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-7.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-38.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+2.8%

Price momentumNegative-19.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.33×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-83 / ±100

-12.3 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

90 /100

+12.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ERCB Directional State ↗ ERCB Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance0

Rotation Up10

Upward Expansion21

Deceleration37

Rotation Down84

Downward Expansion99

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 34%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 5%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 47%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-09-25	Developing	-20.8%
Balance	2026-05-29	2026-07-03	Developing	-21.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-05-22	Established	-12.2%
Balance	2025-09-12	2026-02-06	Established	-15.5%
Rotation Up	2025-08-22	2025-09-05	New	-1.3%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-08-15	New	+6.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-14	2025-07-25	Established	-7.0%
Balance	2024-12-13	2025-02-07	Developing	-14.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-12	2024-12-06	Established	-12.4%
Rotation Down	2024-06-07	2024-07-05	Developing	-0.6%
Deceleration	2024-04-12	2024-05-31	Developing	-16.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-08	2024-04-05	Developing	-22.1%
Rotation Up	2024-02-16	2024-03-01	New	+23.2%
Balance	2023-12-22	2024-02-09	Developing	+15.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing61

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution9

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus XU100.IS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 79/100
Current Relative Strength: -38.52
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -19.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -21.3%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 67th percentile42 in cohort

Test ERCB trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.84×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.33×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ERCB Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TRY 40.45falling

Slow Activity TRY 49.61falling

Trend Reference TRY 52.20-27.1% close margin

Current Fair Value TRY 92.01-58.7% close margin

Structural low TRY 36.64shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +10.1%

Annualized volatility +61.2%

From structural high -63.8%

From structural low +3.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs XU100.IS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	-0.4%-16.5% to +10.1%	+44.4%	+55.6%	-1.8%	+83.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	-9.6%-25.1% to +13.6%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-6.6%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	-20.0%-24.1% to -0.8%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-10.9%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-37.4%-37.5% to -37.3%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-53.4%	+100.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ERCB Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map