Weekly structural research ยท JKT ยท Basic Materials

MOLI Stage Analysis

PT Madusari Murni Indah Tbk

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close IDR 370.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^JKSE
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion ยท Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction 86โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 94/100directional strength
Maturity 30/100lifecycle context
Confidence 80/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +39.0%IDR 266.17 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25370.00260.9955.3057153400Upward Expansion8694
2026-09-18380.00257.1957.1287836000Upward Expansion9697
2026-09-11318.00253.3231.6118307400Upward Expansion8285
2026-09-04314.00251.5929.4676918900Upward Expansion8582
2026-08-28282.00249.1219.6910344800Upward Expansion6772
2026-08-21284.00249.0521.501993000Rotation Up7475
2026-08-14276.00249.9921.471025600Rotation Up4053
2026-08-07274.00251.5221.555447000Balance3739
2026-07-31264.00253.7221.404810100Balance18
2026-07-24252.00255.0517.582534900Balance-188
2026-07-17246.00256.7916.091063000Balance-2413
2026-07-10238.00258.8517.922219200Downward Expansion-2617
2026-07-03238.00260.9919.612185100Downward Expansion-3016
2026-06-26252.00263.7927.122899500Downward Expansion-3218
2026-06-19262.00265.8527.2212171200Downward Expansion-4240
2026-06-12226.72267.6514.065563300Downward Expansion-5865
2026-06-05199.59271.568.394615900Downward Expansion-7168
2026-05-29217.03274.988.0417238300Balance-5435
2026-05-22222.85277.8110.7332922300Balance-4820
2026-05-15265.48280.6521.4029364000Balance-1215
2026-05-08263.54283.1316.9778483300Balance-2221
2026-05-01284.86286.2827.1363453600Downward Expansion-1319
2026-04-24251.91284.0510.5726107000Downward Expansion-3524
2026-04-17261.60282.927.6925748400Downward Expansion-4022
2026-04-10250.00281.535.6517571300Downward Expansion-5738
2026-04-03250.00280.6012.4769676600Downward Expansion-6152
2026-03-27222.00279.20-0.714596800Rotation Down-6673
2026-03-20214.00278.67-4.374499700Rotation Down-4867
2026-03-13218.00278.47-2.919527600Rotation Down-4959
2026-03-06232.00278.13-2.709299000Rotation Down-4555
2026-02-27256.00277.27-1.155671200Rotation Down-2648
2026-02-20264.00275.671.617027400Rotation Down-2141
2026-02-13266.00273.503.258749000Balance-1827
2026-02-06240.00271.23-3.3914765300Balance-815
2026-01-30280.00270.177.4833042600Upward Expansion1612
2026-01-23312.00267.2011.7929444200Upward Expansion4829
2026-01-16322.00263.2714.2233327200Deceleration5031
2026-01-09340.00259.2722.8751285700Deceleration5931
2026-01-02304.00254.8012.795107600Deceleration3417
2025-12-26304.00251.5315.864906300Deceleration3621
2025-12-19308.00248.3316.7927159700Deceleration4024
2025-12-12302.00245.0714.1727320800Upward Expansion4229
2025-12-05322.00241.9322.4317738400Upward Expansion5640
2025-11-28314.00238.4021.6418899000Upward Expansion5440
2025-11-21316.00234.2724.3127522500Upward Expansion5643
2025-11-14344.00230.0336.58149779900Upward Expansion7152
2025-11-07302.00224.8720.2511010700Upward Expansion6155
2025-10-31302.00220.7723.9734339700Upward Expansion6481
2025-10-24308.00216.9725.1930344300Upward Expansion6683
2025-10-17340.00213.0344.90160581600Upward Expansion8990
2025-10-10358.00207.9347.36183897400Upward Expansion9588
2025-10-03218.00202.47-8.037941800Upward Expansion5342
2025-09-26218.00201.73-8.0617301900Upward Expansion5541
2025-09-19220.00201.10-6.938342900Upward Expansion6041
2025-09-12222.00200.37-3.9544523200Balance6438
2025-09-05208.00199.47-10.379482100Balance5028
2025-08-29206.00199.33-11.103642300Balance4734
2025-08-22208.00199.33-10.923737000Balance4943
2025-08-15208.00199.27-11.786124900Balance5038
2025-08-08206.00199.47-8.794416700Balance4428
2025-08-01208.00199.80-8.284324400Balance1812
2025-07-25199.00200.07-12.611078800Balance-55
2025-07-18198.00200.50-10.93649500Balance-69
2025-07-11208.00201.50-3.553611100Balance68
2025-07-04191.00202.17-9.65622000Balance-4224
2025-06-27194.00203.07-9.58355600Balance-1510
2025-06-20202.00203.87-6.66671100Balance99
2025-06-13206.00204.60-8.81216800Balance1320
2025-06-06206.00205.53-8.73359400Balance1426
2025-05-30208.00206.67-9.38689800Balance1522
2025-05-23210.00207.93-9.62716700Balance-215
2025-05-16208.00209.20-9.571166400Balance-712
2025-05-09216.00210.13-2.558490600Downward Expansion-1411
2025-05-02190.00210.87-14.12613900Downward Expansion-5131
2025-04-25189.00212.47-13.12492000Downward Expansion-5435
2025-04-18189.00214.23-10.301150400Downward Expansion-5739
2025-04-11179.00216.00-13.31248300Downward Expansion-7053
2025-03-28188.00218.23-13.26426400Downward Expansion-6242
2025-03-21190.00219.97-9.64809000Downward Expansion-6243
2025-03-14187.00221.83-15.29290100Downward Expansion-6846
2025-03-07194.00223.93-14.51332000Downward Expansion-6242
2025-02-28196.00225.47-9.44618400Downward Expansion-6242
2025-02-21199.00226.93-15.87210800Downward Expansion-6150
2025-02-14198.00228.30-14.93347800Downward Expansion-6452
2025-02-07195.00230.83-18.23512900Downward Expansion-7159
2025-01-31204.00233.47-19.63320700Downward Expansion-6450
2025-01-24206.00236.20-20.23765600Downward Expansion-6444
2025-01-17206.00239.73-20.83859300Downward Expansion-6543
2025-01-10214.00242.00-17.77629700Downward Expansion-5839
2025-01-03216.00243.67-18.69968000Downward Expansion-5738
2024-12-27216.00245.53-18.10436600Downward Expansion-6039
2024-12-20212.00248.20-19.524621500Downward Expansion-6844
2024-12-13228.00250.87-18.124413200Downward Expansion-5743
2024-12-06228.00252.36-19.381067000Downward Expansion-6268
2024-11-29218.00252.59-20.76341800Downward Expansion-7379
2024-11-22218.00253.08-22.28652500Downward Expansion-7673
2024-11-15224.00253.71-20.90495600Downward Expansion-7156
2024-11-08234.00254.86-19.39548200Downward Expansion-5728
2024-11-01240.00257.26-20.671342500Downward Expansion-4223
2024-10-25246.00260.25-21.77620600Downward Expansion-4124
2024-10-18248.00263.04-22.962091000Downward Expansion-5331
2024-10-11236.00265.76-25.31442800Downward Expansion-5943
2024-10-04238.00269.02-25.481053600Downward Expansion-5942
2024-09-27238.00272.27-28.09620900Downward Expansion-5734
2024-09-20242.00275.13-27.95444500Downward Expansion-5332
2024-09-13242.00277.92-29.44885300Downward Expansion-5433
2024-09-06246.00280.90-28.585680100Downward Expansion-5232
2024-08-30240.00283.89-30.434454900Downward Expansion-5738
2024-08-23246.00286.81-27.824652300Downward Expansion-5651
2024-08-16250.00289.73-25.8818469000Downward Expansion-5961
2024-08-09240.00292.65-27.31795300Downward Expansion-6362
2024-08-02240.00296.69-27.851131300Balance-6357
2024-07-26240.00301.06-27.514121400Balance-6337
2024-07-19274.00303.46-17.11483200Balance-2413
2024-07-12274.00305.31-17.13574300Balance-2313
2024-07-05286.00307.23-12.383264900Downward Expansion-2813
2024-06-28312.00309.41-1.49782000Downward Expansion-1911
2024-06-21274.00309.94-10.60175600Downward Expansion-3721
2024-06-14264.00314.69-11.51283900Downward Expansion-4124
2024-06-07272.00316.41-10.351353000Downward Expansion-3725
2024-05-31296.10320.18-2.672273000Downward Expansion-4429
2024-05-24292.15324.06-6.452289800Downward Expansion-6252
2024-05-17272.41328.93-13.104004700Downward Expansion-6783
2024-05-10234.90333.60-22.12500600Downward Expansion-7792
2024-05-03232.93340.05-22.80531300Downward Expansion-8895
2024-04-26236.88344.39-19.862056800Downward Expansion-9494
2024-04-19258.59348.34-12.522626000Downward Expansion-9185
2024-04-05305.97353.281.553082400Downward Expansion-7051
2024-03-29329.65358.6710.532357800Downward Expansion-4023
2024-03-22329.65359.5310.861726500Downward Expansion-4021
2024-03-15329.65358.1412.36892600Downward Expansion-4123
2024-03-08333.60357.0913.901822300Downward Expansion-4933
2024-03-01335.58355.0516.701898200Downward Expansion-5139
2024-02-23323.73351.7013.951878600Balance-5646
2024-02-16325.71347.3514.98997300Balance-2832
2024-02-09331.63342.7519.63992000Balance-2223
2024-02-02335.58338.0122.093937600Balance-1917
2024-01-26327.68333.7322.032136000Deceleration-56
2024-01-19333.60329.7223.781532300Deceleration1710
2024-01-12337.55325.0126.262671700Deceleration178
2024-01-05361.24319.7534.1212102800Deceleration2111
2023-12-29371.11312.8140.5511279300Deceleration1111
2023-12-22311.89305.2420.042287100Deceleration014
2023-12-15329.65299.6528.411228700Deceleration513
2023-12-08331.63293.0730.365272900Deceleration1110
2023-12-01351.37286.9540.778142700Deceleration2617
2023-11-24327.68279.6533.2419454000Deceleration2818
2023-11-17416.51272.9070.9529826200Deceleration4524
2023-11-10315.84263.1334.6010394300Upward Expansion3926
2023-11-03384.92256.6565.5813095500Upward Expansion5742
2023-10-27412.56248.2680.346837300Upward Expansion6049
2023-10-20438.22239.3191.8121532100Upward Expansion6953
2023-10-13412.56229.9081.5710732600Upward Expansion6652
2023-10-06428.35221.9792.0317203900Upward Expansion7460
2023-09-29363.21213.7864.217642600Upward Expansion6563
2023-09-22355.31207.6060.4711187500Upward Expansion6777
Price vs TrendAbove+41.8%
Trend directionRising+1.6%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+39.0%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+43.8%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+55.3%
Relative strength directionImproving+28.2%
Price momentumPositive+66.7%
Volume balanceDemand-led2.87ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

86 / ยฑ100

+18.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

94 /100

+21.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance4
Rotation Up88
Upward Expansion100
Deceleration39
Rotation Down8
Downward Expansion22

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 23%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 18%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 44%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-08-282026-09-25Developing+31.2%
Rotation Up2026-08-142026-08-21New+2.9%
Balance2026-07-172026-08-07New+11.4%
Downward Expansion2026-06-052026-07-10Developing+19.2%
Balance2026-05-082026-05-29New-17.6%
Downward Expansion2026-04-032026-05-01Developing+13.9%
Rotation Down2026-02-202026-03-27Developing-15.9%
Balance2026-02-062026-02-13New+10.8%
Upward Expansion2026-01-232026-01-30New-10.3%
Deceleration2025-12-192026-01-16Developing+4.5%
Upward Expansion2025-09-192025-12-12Established+37.3%
Balance2025-05-162025-09-12Established+6.7%
Downward Expansion2024-08-092025-05-09Extended-10.0%
Balance2024-07-122024-08-02New-12.4%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing35
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution59
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2C ยท Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^JKSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
99/100
Current Relative Strength
55.30
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+66.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+78.7%
Basic Materials regime cohort
80th percentile20 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume3.04ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.87ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity IDR 348.93rising
Slow Activity IDR 276.92rising
Trend Reference IDR 260.99+41.8% close margin
Current Fair Value IDR 266.17+39.0% close margin
Structural low IDR 187.97shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.8%
Annualized volatility +56.5%
From structural high -10.2%
From structural low +96.8%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^JKSE Regime survived Read
Near term10-3.6%-15.4% to +71.7%+50.0%+50.0%-6.2%+70.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate4+10.5%-19.3% to +40.0%+75.0%+75.0%+9.0%+25.0%Too little matched history
Extended2+9.5%-2.7% to +21.7%+50.0%+50.0%+12.8%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2+32.3%-8.2% to +72.7%+50.0%+50.0%+38.2%+50.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context