Weekly structural research · MEX · Industrials

UNP Stage Analysis

Union Pacific Corporation

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 5,112.49Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 66−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 63/100directional strength

Maturity 60/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +15.8%MXN 4,415.36 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	5,112.49	4,765.05	15.01	0	Upward Expansion	66	63
2026-09-18	5,112.49	4,744.97	18.27	0	Upward Expansion	66	64
2026-09-11	5,112.49	4,724.84	17.68	0	Upward Expansion	66	63
2026-09-04	5,112.49	4,705.07	16.39	0	Upward Expansion	67	64
2026-08-28	5,087.39	4,667.90	15.06	0	Upward Expansion	63	64
2026-08-21	5,087.39	4,631.58	14.86	0	Upward Expansion	64	65
2026-08-14	5,079.09	4,592.33	17.31	0	Upward Expansion	66	78
2026-08-07	5,079.45	4,559.18	13.14	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2026-07-31	5,100.97	4,526.01	13.73	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2026-07-24	5,125.00	4,498.23	15.30	0	Upward Expansion	80	93
2026-07-17	5,269.00	4,469.64	18.24	67	Upward Expansion	94	97
2026-07-10	4,903.56	4,436.26	10.43	0	Deceleration	88	77
2026-07-03	4,909.00	4,413.06	9.48	0	Deceleration	86	57
2026-06-26	4,513.31	4,386.01	0.31	0	Deceleration	38	36
2026-06-19	4,453.04	4,372.10	-1.97	0	Upward Expansion	44	49
2026-06-12	4,617.28	4,360.21	0.98	0	Upward Expansion	65	65
2026-06-05	4,617.28	4,341.51	3.58	0	Upward Expansion	68	87
2026-05-29	4,712.63	4,322.80	1.90	31252	Upward Expansion	78	92
2026-05-22	4,671.54	4,300.92	1.17	9	Upward Expansion	77	91
2026-05-15	4,648.64	4,288.00	1.00	0	Upward Expansion	80	92
2026-05-08	4,648.64	4,275.85	-1.97	0	Upward Expansion	79	75
2026-05-01	4,648.64	4,263.69	0.70	221	Deceleration	80	51
2026-04-24	4,377.72	4,251.54	-7.22	0	Deceleration	34	20
2026-04-17	4,377.72	4,248.41	-8.29	181	Deceleration	34	24
2026-04-10	4,358.72	4,241.03	-9.44	19	Deceleration	33	34
2026-04-03	4,348.73	4,234.27	-9.82	0	Upward Expansion	42	27
2026-03-27	4,348.73	4,227.85	-6.35	27	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-03-20	4,220.76	4,221.10	-6.10	14	Upward Expansion	58	77
2026-03-13	4,648.64	4,217.43	0.39	0	Upward Expansion	83	94
2026-03-06	4,648.64	4,199.50	-2.60	633	Upward Expansion	88	91
2026-02-27	4,510.03	4,184.54	-11.55	0	Upward Expansion	84	79
2026-02-20	4,508.65	4,174.19	-12.39	84	Rotation Up	84	63
2026-02-13	4,519.29	4,163.20	-12.92	7	Rotation Up	25	15
2026-02-06	3,997.61	4,151.38	-22.87	0	Downward Expansion	-65	87
2026-01-30	3,997.61	4,165.94	-20.00	6	Downward Expansion	-73	86
2026-01-23	3,909.96	4,180.50	-23.26	219	Rotation Down	-86	65
2026-01-16	4,084.55	4,194.81	-19.43	0	Rotation Down	-52	22
2026-01-09	4,084.55	4,201.15	-18.80	46	Rotation Down	-10	25
2026-01-02	4,267.44	4,205.82	-13.34	235	Rotation Up	39	52
2025-12-26	4,267.44	4,202.06	-15.94	0	Rotation Up	34	46
2025-12-19	4,267.44	4,206.83	-14.33	19	Rotation Up	3	19
2025-12-12	4,207.48	4,211.55	-17.02	133	Downward Expansion	-29	29
2025-12-05	4,097.55	4,220.90	-18.03	0	Downward Expansion	-65	87
2025-11-28	4,096.17	4,224.09	-18.92	0	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2025-11-21	4,096.17	4,227.33	-17.31	195	Downward Expansion	-64	86
2025-11-14	4,056.20	4,230.58	-19.29	0	Downward Expansion	-87	95
2025-11-07	4,056.20	4,240.47	-21.19	0	Rotation Down	-85	86
2025-10-31	4,056.20	4,252.07	-20.92	902	Rotation Down	-57	28
2025-10-24	4,283.99	4,263.66	-14.81	0	Rotation Up	30	74
2025-10-17	4,283.99	4,278.08	-16.08	0	Balance	16	53
2025-10-10	4,283.99	4,292.50	-14.88	0	Balance	-0	25
2025-10-03	4,283.99	4,306.92	-17.15	0	Downward Expansion	-8	19
2025-09-26	4,283.99	4,331.93	-18.00	110	Downward Expansion	-24	21
2025-09-19	4,156.10	4,356.21	-19.43	0	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2025-09-12	4,156.10	4,383.50	-20.65	0	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2025-09-05	4,156.10	4,414.13	-19.44	5787	Downward Expansion	-63	65
2025-08-29	4,146.12	4,441.65	-17.67	25	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2025-08-22	4,110.78	4,474.37	-19.44	0	Downward Expansion	-74	78
2025-08-15	4,110.78	4,506.50	-18.47	294	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2025-08-08	4,199.67	4,526.05	-16.59	0	Downward Expansion	-63	65
2025-08-01	4,199.67	4,542.64	-15.14	35	Downward Expansion	-65	51
2025-07-25	4,178.76	4,559.23	-16.44	3529	Downward Expansion	-70	45
2025-07-18	4,164.72	4,571.89	-15.37	760	Downward Expansion	-62	33
2025-07-11	4,434.37	4,585.02	-10.53	159	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2025-07-04	4,434.37	4,595.08	-12.55	24	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2025-06-27	4,339.49	4,608.16	-13.58	54	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2025-06-20	4,274.58	4,624.40	-13.22	459	Downward Expansion	-61	60
2025-06-13	4,224.64	4,642.81	-16.02	524	Downward Expansion	-76	65
2025-06-06	4,154.73	4,662.88	-18.38	12867	Downward Expansion	-73	54
2025-05-30	4,410.44	4,679.73	-13.10	0	Downward Expansion	-50	49
2025-05-23	4,409.10	4,688.05	-13.85	71	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2025-05-16	4,487.94	4,701.48	-11.60	151	Downward Expansion	-68	86
2025-05-09	4,193.40	4,712.29	-15.18	0	Downward Expansion	-79	93
2025-05-02	4,193.40	4,725.85	-14.02	7	Downward Expansion	-86	95
2025-04-25	4,193.40	4,746.55	-15.38	351	Downward Expansion	-95	98
2025-04-18	4,353.15	4,767.26	-6.02	69	Downward Expansion	-87	95
2025-04-11	4,404.07	4,782.64	-1.99	0	Rotation Down	-89	95
2025-04-04	4,404.07	4,802.15	-1.69	372	Rotation Down	-56	59
2025-03-28	4,716.58	4,814.78	2.16	0	Deceleration	-21	36
2025-03-21	4,716.58	4,817.00	3.46	0	Deceleration	2	21
2025-03-14	4,716.58	4,810.75	4.16	22656	Upward Expansion	16	15
2025-03-07	5,034.08	4,804.50	10.77	201	Upward Expansion	67	59
2025-02-28	5,012.39	4,789.00	11.82	328	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-02-21	4,974.96	4,774.82	8.50	16634	Upward Expansion	65	87
2025-02-14	5,074.94	4,756.17	10.37	635	Upward Expansion	77	92
2025-02-07	4,981.82	4,730.99	11.44	609	Upward Expansion	64	87
2025-01-31	5,127.55	4,697.45	18.85	61	Deceleration	91	96
2025-01-24	5,074.65	4,663.20	18.05	672	Deceleration	81	55
2025-01-17	4,697.35	4,631.21	13.05	0	Deceleration	0	24
2025-01-10	4,697.35	4,610.85	14.37	0	Deceleration	-1	29
2025-01-03	4,697.35	4,590.74	16.41	974	Deceleration	2	27
2024-12-27	4,558.60	4,567.02	12.80	0	Rotation Down	-17	32
2024-12-20	4,558.60	4,544.21	12.66	632	Rotation Down	-2	8
2024-12-13	4,736.27	4,524.21	12.97	15002	Upward Expansion	60	51
2024-12-06	4,826.77	4,502.90	16.26	0	Upward Expansion	66	58
2024-11-29	4,826.77	4,480.36	20.43	0	Deceleration	70	56
2024-11-22	4,826.77	4,461.55	19.62	0	Deceleration	68	45
2024-11-15	4,826.77	4,442.75	20.24	142	Deceleration	62	43
2024-11-08	4,660.12	4,423.94	13.67	0	Deceleration	46	41
2024-11-01	4,660.12	4,410.69	16.93	100	Deceleration	45	41
2024-10-25	4,812.11	4,397.44	18.61	0	Deceleration	56	53
2024-10-18	4,812.11	4,379.13	16.28	5	Upward Expansion	59	55
2024-10-11	4,600.25	4,360.81	12.86	593	Upward Expansion	52	55
2024-10-04	4,814.49	4,349.56	18.07	0	Upward Expansion	66	76
2024-09-27	4,814.49	4,331.16	18.25	0	Upward Expansion	66	87
2024-09-20	4,814.49	4,314.94	20.19	110	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-09-13	4,989.42	4,300.50	25.66	18	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-09-06	4,783.06	4,274.15	23.42	0	Upward Expansion	87	94
2024-08-30	4,783.06	4,255.92	19.82	57	Upward Expansion	91	95
2024-08-23	4,529.13	4,236.22	12.81	0	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-08-16	4,529.13	4,223.10	11.98	26	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-08-09	4,569.03	4,208.12	15.51	653	Rotation Up	80	88
2024-08-02	4,586.99	4,193.93	18.16	699	Rotation Up	49	62
2024-07-26	4,415.49	4,179.14	12.94	521	Downward Expansion	38	34
2024-07-19	4,319.63	4,170.06	9.08	1448	Downward Expansion	-2	11
2024-07-12	3,975.46	4,163.74	-1.60	15	Downward Expansion	-54	30
2024-07-05	4,100.16	4,169.37	6.76	892	Downward Expansion	-36	26
2024-06-28	4,115.04	4,166.16	7.34	35070	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2024-06-21	4,086.42	4,161.49	6.26	212	Rotation Down	-62	54
2024-06-14	4,094.08	4,150.63	7.97	4661	Rotation Down	-39	70
2024-06-07	3,985.59	4,139.50	4.00	845	Rotation Down	-40	79
2024-05-31	3,874.37	4,129.78	-2.64	292	Rotation Down	-61	86
2024-05-24	3,958.66	4,123.76	-0.77	7435	Rotation Down	-59	83
2024-05-17	4,096.94	4,117.52	-0.94	524	Rotation Down	-32	44
2024-05-10	4,150.50	4,106.66	0.32	16718	Deceleration	-4	15
2024-05-03	4,262.64	4,088.18	4.31	0	Deceleration	48	51
2024-04-26	4,262.64	4,065.95	3.35	0	Deceleration	48	52
2024-04-19	4,262.64	4,044.59	7.29	0	Deceleration	47	48
2024-04-12	4,262.64	4,023.64	6.24	0	Deceleration	47	48
2024-04-05	4,262.64	4,004.06	3.73	0	Upward Expansion	49	53
2024-03-29	4,262.64	3,987.04	5.22	0	Upward Expansion	52	56
2024-03-22	4,262.64	3,970.02	6.86	0	Upward Expansion	64	73
2024-03-15	4,262.64	3,952.71	7.88	0	Upward Expansion	67	75
2024-03-08	4,262.64	3,938.48	10.61	197	Upward Expansion	68	79
2024-03-01	4,327.66	3,926.28	11.37	310	Upward Expansion	80	89
2024-02-23	4,381.45	3,912.37	10.77	109	Upward Expansion	92	77
2024-02-16	4,198.76	3,896.12	5.59	337	Upward Expansion	70	67
2024-02-09	4,236.14	3,876.87	6.31	550	Upward Expansion	82	70
2024-02-02	4,192.27	3,852.85	3.62	17229	Upward Expansion	81	69
2024-01-26	4,135.45	3,827.86	4.64	347	Upward Expansion	71	67
2024-01-19	4,079.87	3,806.14	5.96	367	Upward Expansion	68	75
2024-01-12	4,143.22	3,785.62	7.32	0	Upward Expansion	70	87
2024-01-05	4,143.22	3,764.69	6.21	0	Upward Expansion	74	91
2023-12-29	4,143.22	3,742.76	3.89	255	Upward Expansion	80	93
2023-12-22	4,130.02	3,717.83	3.39	1662	Upward Expansion	88	96
2023-12-15	4,144.18	3,693.15	3.81	128	Upward Expansion	96	98
2023-12-08	4,003.85	3,670.20	5.05	487	Upward Expansion	92	96
2023-12-01	3,975.19	3,653.34	5.05	1539	Upward Expansion	93	87
2023-11-24	3,760.36	3,637.44	1.03	0	Upward Expansion	57	51
2023-11-17	3,760.36	3,628.95	1.30	741	Upward Expansion	55	57
2023-11-10	3,693.90	3,623.52	2.08	0	Upward Expansion	40	41
2023-11-03	3,693.90	3,619.03	1.80	325	Deceleration	37	39
2023-10-27	3,771.33	3,615.30	8.66	0	Deceleration	55	32
2023-10-20	3,771.33	3,609.13	10.26	348	Deceleration	28	22
2023-10-13	3,595.93	3,598.45	2.75	0	Deceleration	-6	28
2023-10-06	3,595.93	3,598.65	1.84	1888	Deceleration	4	24

Price vs TrendAbove+7.3%

Trend directionRising+6.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+15.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+10.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+15.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+14.7%

Price momentumPositive+17.6%

Volume balanceDemand-led5.00×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

66 / ±100

+3.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

63 /100

-0.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

UNP Directional State ↗ UNP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance7

Rotation Up55

Upward Expansion88

Deceleration60

Rotation Down30

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 41%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-09-25	Developing	-3.0%
Deceleration	2026-06-26	2026-07-10	New	+8.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-06-19	Developing	-4.2%
Deceleration	2026-04-10	2026-05-01	New	+6.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-04-03	Developing	-3.6%
Rotation Up	2026-02-13	2026-02-20	New	-0.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-02-06	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2026-01-09	2026-01-23	New	-4.3%
Rotation Up	2025-12-19	2026-01-02	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-14	2025-12-12	Developing	+3.7%
Rotation Down	2025-10-31	2025-11-07	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2025-10-24	2025-10-24	New	+0.0%
Balance	2025-10-10	2025-10-17	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-10-03	Established	-1.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing26

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: 15.01
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +17.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +20.1%
Industrials regime cohort: 45th percentile11 in cohort

Test UNP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume5.00×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore UNP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 5,110.82rising

Slow Activity MXN 4,911.80rising

Trend Reference MXN 4,765.05+7.3% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 4,415.36+15.8% close margin

Structural low MXN 4,313.56shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +1.5%

Annualized volatility +18.8%

From structural high -3.0%

From structural low +30.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	24	-0.3%-12.5% to +10.2%	+45.8%	+45.8%	+0.9%	+62.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	+4.4%-20.9% to +8.9%	+70.0%	+70.0%	+3.0%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+7.7%-17.3% to +15.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+8.4%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-13.3%-14.7% to +27.5%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-15.7%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

UNP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map