Weekly structural research · JKT · Financial Services

AHAP Stage Analysis

PT Asuransi Harta Aman Pratama Tbk

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close IDR 84.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^JKSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -44−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 26/100directional strength

Maturity 26/100lifecycle context

Confidence 75/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -13.3%IDR 96.89 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	84.00	97.54	-6.17	323773283	Balance	-44	26
2026-09-18	82.33	100.14	-10.37	1182726308	Balance	-45	21
2026-09-11	98.00	102.23	5.51	69649700	Balance	-4	19
2026-09-04	103.00	103.30	10.06	123803400	Balance	4	16
2026-08-28	96.00	103.93	5.26	70122900	Balance	-10	13
2026-08-21	101.00	105.87	11.37	28919300	Balance	-3	10
2026-08-14	99.00	107.33	11.97	59010000	Downward Expansion	-15	11
2026-08-07	94.00	110.40	7.12	6385700	Downward Expansion	-31	17
2026-07-31	92.00	113.63	8.66	5390500	Downward Expansion	-33	21
2026-07-24	93.00	114.67	11.53	11476700	Downward Expansion	-36	21
2026-07-17	95.00	114.67	15.41	31261600	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2026-07-10	95.00	114.53	21.42	167970600	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2026-07-03	87.00	114.63	13.19	3790600	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2026-06-26	83.00	115.00	8.44	5288300	Downward Expansion	-62	63
2026-06-19	91.00	115.33	14.22	25256700	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2026-06-12	82.00	115.53	6.63	13048000	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2026-06-05	68.00	115.80	-4.53	9381700	Downward Expansion	-86	87
2026-05-29	85.00	116.43	9.23	26530700	Balance	-74	72
2026-05-22	87.00	116.57	11.75	108708800	Balance	-44	53
2026-05-15	105.00	116.73	24.23	57011700	Balance	-28	33
2026-05-08	105.00	115.93	20.81	228760300	Balance	-26	17
2026-05-01	107.00	115.53	24.17	50894500	Balance	-5	6
2026-04-24	108.00	114.80	23.16	105906200	Balance	13	9
2026-04-17	128.00	113.70	37.23	180621700	Rotation Down	11	10
2026-04-10	118.00	112.00	30.76	165054400	Rotation Down	-16	28
2026-04-03	107.00	110.67	27.12	116770800	Deceleration	-16	24
2026-03-27	106.00	109.67	25.71	42028800	Deceleration	2	18
2026-03-20	104.00	108.70	23.98	48127800	Deceleration	3	11
2026-03-13	102.00	108.10	21.70	265774100	Deceleration	17	10
2026-03-06	121.00	107.13	36.37	406397600	Deceleration	36	20
2026-02-27	162.00	105.30	69.33	1768135900	Deceleration	50	27
2026-02-20	145.00	102.03	52.86	951160000	Deceleration	41	24
2026-02-13	130.00	99.30	39.28	332024500	Upward Expansion	42	28
2026-02-06	122.00	97.17	35.98	535519600	Upward Expansion	61	51
2026-01-30	154.00	95.33	64.48	415304300	Upward Expansion	65	86
2026-01-23	145.00	92.40	45.73	130432100	Upward Expansion	65	87
2026-01-16	191.00	89.80	90.76	0	Upward Expansion	94	97
2026-01-09	191.00	85.67	96.73	1913348100	Upward Expansion	94	91
2026-01-02	123.00	81.70	31.50	1076262000	Upward Expansion	80	52
2025-12-26	93.00	80.10	2.22	168989200	Upward Expansion	52	30
2025-12-19	91.00	79.50	-1.12	194079400	Upward Expansion	55	34
2025-12-12	98.00	79.07	5.43	236936700	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-12-05	98.00	78.27	5.60	314292400	Upward Expansion	64	51
2025-11-28	93.00	77.43	1.37	123146900	Upward Expansion	58	41
2025-11-21	97.00	76.80	6.51	692121300	Upward Expansion	64	42
2025-11-14	90.00	76.00	-1.07	134194400	Upward Expansion	56	35
2025-11-07	87.00	75.27	-5.07	86988700	Upward Expansion	53	33
2025-10-31	89.00	74.37	-0.66	172350100	Upward Expansion	56	46
2025-10-24	92.00	73.60	0.86	552754900	Upward Expansion	62	53
2025-10-17	81.00	72.80	-7.61	156549800	Upward Expansion	51	36
2025-10-10	93.00	72.60	0.94	963027700	Upward Expansion	67	44
2025-10-03	85.00	72.13	-6.71	348703700	Rotation Up	61	33
2025-09-26	75.00	71.77	-18.08	53853800	Rotation Up	47	25
2025-09-19	77.00	71.97	-16.25	60599300	Rotation Up	51	39
2025-09-12	78.00	72.10	-13.82	86618000	Rotation Up	27	39
2025-09-05	77.00	72.37	-15.94	57662500	Rotation Up	25	30
2025-08-29	77.00	72.63	-16.34	395924100	Balance	15	24
2025-08-22	86.00	72.93	-7.81	379644700	Balance	21	21
2025-08-15	73.00	72.90	-22.66	126057400	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2025-08-08	66.00	73.37	-27.36	30415000	Downward Expansion	-57	38
2025-08-01	64.00	74.13	-30.26	57601600	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2025-07-25	63.00	74.87	-32.11	41591800	Downward Expansion	-70	63
2025-07-18	66.00	75.70	-27.38	51588800	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2025-07-11	67.00	76.63	-23.97	4956500	Downward Expansion	-58	60
2025-07-04	66.00	77.40	-23.50	20913000	Balance	-61	57
2025-06-27	67.00	78.30	-23.19	3666000	Balance	-55	38
2025-06-20	67.00	79.20	-23.69	14767300	Balance	-45	24
2025-06-13	72.00	80.27	-21.34	11723900	Balance	-22	11
2025-06-06	75.00	81.10	-17.88	8400400	Balance	-16	12
2025-05-30	75.00	81.93	-18.99	4502500	Downward Expansion	-26	16
2025-05-23	78.00	82.93	-16.62	37462300	Downward Expansion	-26	18
2025-05-16	74.00	83.87	-20.02	4070800	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2025-05-09	73.00	85.03	-18.13	9482000	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2025-05-02	74.00	86.27	-17.15	4304200	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2025-04-25	73.00	87.57	-17.04	11295400	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2025-04-18	68.00	89.07	-20.53	10865000	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2025-04-11	60.00	90.70	-28.59	42822800	Downward Expansion	-82	72
2025-03-28	66.00	92.87	-25.24	53580300	Downward Expansion	-77	61
2025-03-21	68.00	94.63	-20.66	20198200	Downward Expansion	-83	77
2025-03-14	75.00	96.37	-16.67	6860300	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2025-03-07	79.00	97.60	-14.55	17318700	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2025-02-28	74.00	98.60	-16.27	18504900	Downward Expansion	-83	73
2025-02-21	81.00	99.70	-16.43	17794500	Downward Expansion	-70	56
2025-02-14	81.00	100.67	-14.37	15303000	Downward Expansion	-74	58
2025-02-07	86.00	101.63	-10.26	23087500	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2025-01-31	85.00	101.90	-15.61	6869700	Downward Expansion	-66	53
2025-01-24	86.00	102.17	-15.22	19609700	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2025-01-17	85.00	102.53	-16.05	17511800	Downward Expansion	-67	59
2025-01-10	87.00	102.70	-13.43	9574000	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2025-01-03	89.00	102.70	-12.39	11053100	Downward Expansion	-62	62
2024-12-27	86.00	102.83	-13.85	15073400	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2024-12-20	88.00	103.17	-11.24	28172000	Rotation Down	-73	72
2024-12-13	94.00	103.57	-9.69	66012300	Rotation Down	-36	59
2024-12-06	90.00	103.73	-14.17	65447300	Rotation Down	-47	64
2024-11-29	93.00	103.57	-8.05	20116000	Rotation Down	-34	56
2024-11-22	94.00	103.70	-8.24	41869500	Rotation Down	-33	52
2024-11-15	99.00	103.97	-3.06	81319800	Rotation Down	-24	42
2024-11-08	97.00	104.67	-6.84	47575200	Balance	-28	40
2024-11-01	100.00	105.60	-6.93	98167200	Balance	-22	23
2024-10-25	105.00	106.40	-4.91	80086500	Balance	15	17
2024-10-18	106.00	107.10	-5.01	35630200	Balance	20	18
2024-10-11	109.00	107.73	0.30	14818700	Rotation Up	31	18
2024-10-04	110.00	108.43	1.33	34965000	Rotation Up	10	9
2024-09-27	113.00	109.73	1.26	73050100	Rotation Up	25	23
2024-09-20	118.00	110.77	5.19	46971400	Rotation Up	30	29
2024-09-13	117.00	109.77	3.90	86701300	Rotation Up	33	40
2024-09-06	125.00	108.37	12.75	202535400	Rotation Up	35	49
2024-08-30	119.00	106.70	8.51	237969900	Rotation Up	30	46
2024-08-23	120.00	105.43	11.63	196987600	Rotation Up	36	49
2024-08-16	112.00	104.27	6.26	67496900	Balance	24	37
2024-08-09	109.00	103.73	6.77	134545500	Balance	18	24
2024-08-02	107.00	103.13	5.04	57183000	Balance	14	20
2024-07-26	110.00	102.67	9.26	101462000	Balance	16	17
2024-07-19	110.00	102.07	10.21	179763100	Deceleration	9	10
2024-07-12	94.00	101.60	-5.38	26346400	Deceleration	-24	18
2024-07-05	93.00	101.43	-4.90	34568300	Rotation Down	-27	23
2024-06-28	97.00	101.37	2.48	93081400	Rotation Down	-29	32
2024-06-21	90.00	101.43	-1.72	25367500	Rotation Down	-23	40
2024-06-14	87.00	101.77	-2.49	22821900	Deceleration	-29	37
2024-06-07	93.00	102.33	2.44	19799200	Deceleration	-21	29
2024-05-31	96.00	102.57	5.44	47536700	Deceleration	-18	30
2024-05-24	100.00	102.77	6.86	75391300	Deceleration	-15	21
2024-05-17	99.00	102.90	5.37	169450100	Deceleration	-15	23
2024-05-10	85.00	103.60	-5.82	46299900	Deceleration	-26	26
2024-05-03	97.00	104.47	7.46	43388200	Deceleration	13	14
2024-04-26	102.00	104.83	15.63	64185700	Deceleration	25	15
2024-04-19	120.00	104.73	36.46	54658700	Deceleration	40	25
2024-04-05	125.00	103.40	40.24	84455200	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-03-29	124.00	102.00	41.13	52338800	Upward Expansion	57	42
2024-03-22	126.00	100.90	44.29	141777300	Upward Expansion	61	70
2024-03-15	125.00	99.70	45.85	170666700	Upward Expansion	61	73
2024-03-08	130.00	98.37	52.83	182731900	Upward Expansion	60	67
2024-03-01	149.00	96.13	79.19	640458300	Rotation Up	78	69
2024-02-23	144.00	93.07	76.42	881584400	Rotation Up	59	32
2024-02-16	88.00	90.13	9.03	35683100	Rotation Down	-29	43
2024-02-09	75.00	89.10	-5.51	7914700	Rotation Down	-40	55
2024-02-02	75.00	88.57	-5.67	61827200	Deceleration	-39	44
2024-01-26	81.00	88.07	3.61	26029200	Deceleration	-25	27
2024-01-19	85.00	87.27	7.76	77825800	Deceleration	-0	7
2024-01-12	96.00	86.43	22.13	50392100	Deceleration	11	7
2024-01-05	91.00	85.43	14.96	12065600	Deceleration	9	8
2023-12-29	93.00	84.27	19.35	27492100	Deceleration	12	10
2023-12-22	92.00	83.00	18.97	54143500	Deceleration	12	12
2023-12-15	96.00	81.80	25.16	144020000	Deceleration	16	12
2023-12-08	89.00	80.33	16.82	93385300	Deceleration	24	16
2023-12-01	91.00	79.13	21.27	235368500	Deceleration	32	17
2023-11-24	99.00	77.87	33.38	28028400	Deceleration	36	23
2023-11-17	100.00	76.33	35.89	28792700	Deceleration	39	25
2023-11-10	104.00	74.77	45.44	73964300	Upward Expansion	42	28
2023-11-03	100.00	73.07	41.00	38885700	Upward Expansion	56	40
2023-10-27	102.00	71.53	44.91	53064100	Upward Expansion	61	48
2023-10-20	104.00	69.93	46.13	90156000	Upward Expansion	63	60
2023-10-13	120.00	68.17	67.45	83086100	Upward Expansion	77	74
2023-10-06	111.00	65.97	56.82	254625400	Upward Expansion	74	58
2023-09-29	108.00	64.47	51.91	429312800	Upward Expansion	78	57
2023-09-22	99.00	63.33	38.63	169016300	Upward Expansion	77	59

Price vs TrendBelow-13.9%

Trend directionFalling-14.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-13.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-14.6%

Price momentumNegative-20.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.53×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-44 / ±100

-34.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

26 /100

+13.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AHAP Directional State ↗ AHAP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance43

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion12

Deceleration52

Rotation Down51

Downward Expansion64

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 25%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	-16.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-08-14	Developing	+45.6%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-05-29	Developing	-21.3%
Rotation Down	2026-04-10	2026-04-17	New	+8.5%
Deceleration	2026-02-20	2026-04-03	Developing	-26.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2026-02-13	Established	+39.8%
Rotation Up	2025-09-05	2025-10-03	Developing	+10.4%
Balance	2025-08-22	2025-08-29	New	-10.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-08-15	Developing	+9.0%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-07-04	Developing	-12.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-05-30	Established	-12.8%
Rotation Down	2024-11-15	2024-12-20	Developing	-11.1%
Balance	2024-10-18	2024-11-08	New	-8.5%
Rotation Up	2024-08-23	2024-10-11	Developing	-9.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing51

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution20

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^JKSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.17
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -20.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -8.7%
Financial Services regime cohort: 86th percentile21 in cohort

Test AHAP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.78×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.53×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AHAP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity IDR 89.69falling

Slow Activity IDR 93.91falling

Trend Reference IDR 97.54-13.9% close margin

Current Fair Value IDR 96.89-13.3% close margin

Structural low IDR 67.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +15.4%

Annualized volatility +69.0%

From structural high -60.7%

From structural low +25.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^JKSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	-5.0%-19.4% to +49.1%	+30.8%	+30.8%	-8.5%	+38.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-4.5%-21.4% to +65.0%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-7.9%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+30.7%-21.8% to +90.6%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+9.3%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+39.6%-41.8% to +90.6%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+44.8%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AHAP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

RMI Reversal Map