Weekly structural research · ASX · Consumer Cyclical

VVA Stage Analysis

Viva Leisure Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 1.51Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -29−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 11/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 59/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +2.8%AUD 1.47 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.51	1.53	-3.55	389763	Balance	-29	11
2026-10-02	1.50	1.54	-4.08	364123	Balance	-20	10
2026-09-25	1.54	1.55	-1.95	134550	Balance	-10	11
2026-09-18	1.56	1.55	-1.13	369047	Downward Expansion	-12	13
2026-09-11	1.52	1.55	-4.20	113821	Downward Expansion	-22	21
2026-09-04	1.54	1.56	-5.68	11238	Downward Expansion	-21	17
2026-08-28	1.51	1.56	-8.86	47175	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2026-08-21	1.60	1.56	-3.13	651817	Downward Expansion	-22	15
2026-08-14	1.45	1.56	-12.65	101582	Downward Expansion	-58	58
2026-08-07	1.40	1.56	-17.07	130636	Downward Expansion	-73	69
2026-07-31	1.52	1.57	-6.83	72069	Downward Expansion	-58	60
2026-07-24	1.41	1.58	-11.65	81081	Downward Expansion	-75	68
2026-07-17	1.46	1.58	-8.32	11339	Balance	-65	47
2026-07-10	1.52	1.59	-4.77	65943	Balance	-42	20
2026-07-03	1.56	1.59	-2.09	99881	Balance	-18	8
2026-06-26	1.57	1.60	-0.61	41080	Balance	-12	16
2026-06-19	1.59	1.60	0.14	104168	Balance	-21	21
2026-06-12	1.58	1.60	-0.29	145132	Downward Expansion	-27	16
2026-06-05	1.70	1.60	9.79	40191	Downward Expansion	-9	6
2026-05-29	1.58	1.60	1.47	1040186	Downward Expansion	-52	42
2026-05-22	1.44	1.60	-6.50	406168	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2026-05-15	1.48	1.61	-3.23	366720	Downward Expansion	-66	51
2026-05-08	1.54	1.62	-1.11	386865	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2026-05-01	1.56	1.63	0.95	482155	Downward Expansion	-52	35
2026-04-24	1.55	1.64	0.10	1724286	Downward Expansion	-53	41
2026-04-17	1.55	1.64	-1.70	563054	Balance	-52	42
2026-04-10	1.55	1.65	-1.70	392468	Balance	-51	34
2026-04-03	1.56	1.65	3.79	168474	Balance	-47	26
2026-03-27	1.56	1.66	4.44	233233	Balance	-36	17
2026-03-20	1.58	1.66	7.47	101609	Balance	-19	10
2026-03-13	1.67	1.65	11.14	264505	Balance	10	14
2026-03-06	1.68	1.65	9.37	383951	Balance	10	16
2026-02-27	1.67	1.64	4.90	143414	Balance	6	10
2026-02-20	1.70	1.63	8.36	326199	Balance	4	5
2026-02-13	1.70	1.61	10.63	269228	Deceleration	-8	15
2026-02-06	1.54	1.60	3.20	1025902	Deceleration	-23	32
2026-01-30	1.42	1.59	-6.50	132220	Deceleration	-40	31
2026-01-23	1.62	1.58	6.30	157491	Deceleration	21	9
2026-01-16	1.62	1.57	6.27	147773	Deceleration	23	10
2026-01-09	1.66	1.56	11.42	58983	Deceleration	28	14
2026-01-02	1.64	1.55	9.53	41439	Deceleration	25	12
2025-12-26	1.62	1.55	7.94	20544	Deceleration	15	9
2025-12-19	1.64	1.54	11.86	82819	Deceleration	18	10
2025-12-12	1.61	1.53	8.66	493779	Deceleration	16	15
2025-12-05	1.68	1.52	14.35	55749	Deceleration	22	14
2025-11-28	1.60	1.50	9.56	22026	Deceleration	26	20
2025-11-21	1.54	1.49	8.20	484591	Deceleration	23	19
2025-11-14	1.74	1.48	19.40	229452	Deceleration	43	25
2025-11-07	1.60	1.47	8.42	396119	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-10-31	1.68	1.45	12.82	584476	Upward Expansion	48	40
2025-10-24	1.71	1.44	13.08	1092549	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-10-17	1.76	1.42	16.88	533745	Upward Expansion	67	64
2025-10-10	1.78	1.41	19.44	138907	Upward Expansion	69	77
2025-10-03	1.82	1.39	21.91	257147	Upward Expansion	79	87
2025-09-26	1.80	1.37	24.22	170185	Upward Expansion	83	92
2025-09-19	1.72	1.36	19.08	368632	Upward Expansion	80	91
2025-09-12	1.68	1.34	15.77	386358	Upward Expansion	82	90
2025-09-05	1.72	1.34	17.94	762860	Upward Expansion	93	93
2025-08-29	1.52	1.33	3.23	764031	Upward Expansion	76	82
2025-08-22	1.48	1.33	0.85	3737635	Downward Expansion	73	74
2025-08-15	1.48	1.32	1.42	2393242	Downward Expansion	45	47
2025-08-08	1.37	1.32	-5.03	795407	Downward Expansion	-5	3
2025-08-01	1.29	1.32	-9.27	1227210	Downward Expansion	-50	32
2025-07-25	1.27	1.33	-11.06	216111	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2025-07-18	1.28	1.33	-11.30	121253	Balance	-40	27
2025-07-11	1.24	1.34	-12.22	415234	Balance	-48	25
2025-07-04	1.30	1.34	-8.82	285141	Rotation Up	-14	10
2025-06-27	1.35	1.35	-4.65	289512	Rotation Up	15	30
2025-06-20	1.35	1.35	-4.79	551774	Rotation Up	15	27
2025-06-13	1.34	1.35	-6.22	107545	Balance	14	23
2025-06-06	1.38	1.35	-3.69	177761	Balance	3	18
2025-05-30	1.34	1.36	-5.26	366678	Downward Expansion	-17	14
2025-05-23	1.34	1.36	-5.24	559044	Downward Expansion	-27	15
2025-05-16	1.32	1.36	-7.17	593533	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2025-05-09	1.23	1.36	-12.13	382912	Downward Expansion	-59	35
2025-05-02	1.26	1.36	-10.37	228391	Deceleration	-43	30
2025-04-25	1.29	1.37	-5.46	168590	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2025-04-18	1.25	1.37	-6.95	127305	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2025-04-11	1.24	1.37	-6.32	740829	Downward Expansion	-63	46
2025-04-04	1.26	1.38	-5.39	2340943	Downward Expansion	-62	71
2025-03-28	1.29	1.39	-6.81	1773750	Downward Expansion	-64	75
2025-03-21	1.24	1.39	-10.09	356318	Downward Expansion	-69	79
2025-03-14	1.18	1.39	-13.55	1245670	Balance	-84	80
2025-03-07	1.31	1.40	-5.96	4604312	Balance	-27	33
2025-02-28	1.35	1.40	-5.99	594388	Balance	-15	12
2025-02-21	1.36	1.40	-6.59	656836	Upward Expansion	28	16
2025-02-14	1.45	1.40	-4.13	444324	Upward Expansion	51	42
2025-02-07	1.48	1.40	-1.96	456784	Upward Expansion	58	28
2025-01-31	1.44	1.39	-4.71	408011	Upward Expansion	39	16
2025-01-24	1.42	1.39	-5.25	259513	Upward Expansion	31	15
2025-01-17	1.38	1.39	-7.38	163636	Upward Expansion	24	11
2025-01-10	1.42	1.39	-4.48	116990	Upward Expansion	47	34
2025-01-03	1.42	1.39	-3.82	80813	Upward Expansion	47	42
2024-12-27	1.45	1.39	-2.45	113559	Balance	50	34
2024-12-20	1.44	1.40	-0.71	591576	Balance	22	12
2024-12-13	1.45	1.40	-3.29	727987	Balance	14	8
2024-12-06	1.36	1.40	-10.41	511568	Balance	-5	3
2024-11-29	1.38	1.40	-9.89	987097	Rotation Up	14	22
2024-11-22	1.39	1.40	-9.13	1233934	Rotation Up	22	25
2024-11-15	1.46	1.40	-3.64	104432	Rotation Up	22	33
2024-11-08	1.46	1.40	-4.31	961741	Downward Expansion	20	18
2024-11-01	1.44	1.40	-3.57	200440	Downward Expansion	-6	5
2024-10-25	1.34	1.40	-11.48	1854452	Downward Expansion	-44	40
2024-10-18	1.38	1.40	-10.35	849281	Downward Expansion	-36	29
2024-10-11	1.33	1.41	-12.87	303405	Downward Expansion	-45	30
2024-10-04	1.33	1.41	-12.51	216720	Downward Expansion	-42	17
2024-09-27	1.38	1.42	-10.36	2382915	Downward Expansion	-13	13
2024-09-20	1.42	1.42	-8.60	807633	Downward Expansion	-17	19
2024-09-13	1.43	1.42	-6.77	252864	Downward Expansion	-13	18
2024-09-06	1.40	1.42	-7.94	567792	Downward Expansion	-31	18
2024-08-30	1.40	1.43	-8.73	293052	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2024-08-23	1.38	1.43	-9.46	383518	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2024-08-16	1.32	1.43	-13.38	677354	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2024-08-09	1.35	1.44	-9.36	370498	Downward Expansion	-58	50
2024-08-02	1.30	1.44	-14.89	1631173	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2024-07-26	1.31	1.44	-14.14	549014	Downward Expansion	-70	65
2024-07-19	1.38	1.45	-10.15	100362	Downward Expansion	-57	57
2024-07-12	1.33	1.45	-13.29	120705	Balance	-69	60
2024-07-05	1.40	1.46	-6.94	106373	Balance	-52	35
2024-06-28	1.40	1.46	-6.58	2275906	Balance	-52	25
2024-06-21	1.42	1.46	-5.23	200988	Balance	-5	11
2024-06-14	1.40	1.45	-5.69	370644	Rotation Down	20	24
2024-06-07	1.54	1.45	1.62	230325	Rotation Down	62	41
2024-05-31	1.56	1.45	4.95	394446	Rotation Down	51	24
2024-05-24	1.50	1.45	1.21	344119	Rotation Down	-8	31
2024-05-17	1.35	1.44	-9.76	139749	Rotation Down	-51	65
2024-05-10	1.39	1.44	-6.30	140805	Balance	-30	42
2024-05-03	1.40	1.44	-3.70	94917	Balance	-24	24
2024-04-26	1.45	1.45	0.27	103044	Balance	10	7
2024-04-19	1.44	1.45	0.26	397898	Balance	10	6
2024-04-12	1.50	1.45	1.04	133989	Balance	38	16
2024-04-05	1.44	1.45	-1.84	196101	Balance	20	12
2024-03-29	1.46	1.45	-1.90	119618	Balance	30	15
2024-03-22	1.46	1.45	-0.50	88682	Upward Expansion	31	16
2024-03-15	1.47	1.45	1.48	885479	Upward Expansion	35	16
2024-03-08	1.48	1.45	-0.11	832873	Upward Expansion	49	26
2024-03-01	1.46	1.45	-0.08	231422	Upward Expansion	51	35
2024-02-23	1.51	1.44	5.15	1543643	Upward Expansion	58	52
2024-02-16	1.52	1.43	6.14	375108	Deceleration	61	47
2024-02-09	1.48	1.42	3.68	156334	Deceleration	51	35
2024-02-02	1.50	1.42	4.78	237807	Deceleration	57	27
2024-01-26	1.44	1.41	3.16	21968	Deceleration	41	16
2024-01-19	1.46	1.41	6.60	412213	Deceleration	45	30
2024-01-12	1.42	1.40	3.55	148424	Deceleration	41	26
2024-01-05	1.42	1.40	4.49	62874	Deceleration	43	30
2023-12-29	1.52	1.39	10.64	80410	Deceleration	58	36
2023-12-22	1.47	1.38	8.43	321361	Deceleration	37	15
2023-12-15	1.38	1.37	2.99	106774	Deceleration	9	8
2023-12-08	1.40	1.37	8.01	83831	Deceleration	13	8
2023-12-01	1.41	1.36	11.47	364586	Deceleration	20	11
2023-11-24	1.40	1.36	11.93	265949	Deceleration	20	10
2023-11-17	1.40	1.35	11.80	1024720	Deceleration	29	15
2023-11-10	1.45	1.34	17.27	77201	Deceleration	33	20
2023-11-03	1.39	1.34	12.65	42233	Deceleration	27	22
2023-10-27	1.40	1.33	16.33	109174	Deceleration	33	21
2023-10-20	1.38	1.32	13.82	693206	Upward Expansion	43	28

Price vs TrendBelow-1.5%

Trend directionFalling-2.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+2.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+1.2%

Price momentumNegative-2.6%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.81×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-29 / ±100

-7.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

11 /100

-10.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

VVA Directional State ↗ VVA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance52

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion16

Deceleration37

Rotation Down34

Downward Expansion59

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 25%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 16%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 31%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-1.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-09-18	Developing	+11.0%
Balance	2026-06-19	2026-07-17	Developing	-7.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-06-12	Developing	+1.4%
Balance	2026-02-20	2026-04-17	Developing	-8.8%
Deceleration	2025-11-14	2026-02-13	Established	-2.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-11-07	Developing	+5.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-08-22	Developing	+16.8%
Balance	2025-07-11	2025-07-18	New	+2.8%
Rotation Up	2025-06-20	2025-07-04	New	-3.7%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-06-13	New	-2.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-09	2025-05-30	New	+9.3%
Deceleration	2025-05-02	2025-05-02	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-21	2025-04-25	Developing	+4.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing30

Stage 3 · Distribution51

Stage 4 · Declining70

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 54/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.55
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -2.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +0.1%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 39th percentile18 in cohort

Test VVA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.94×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.81×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore VVA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 1.52falling

Slow Activity AUD 1.52falling

Trend Reference AUD 1.53-1.5% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 1.47+2.8% close margin

Structural low AUD 1.38shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.2%

Annualized volatility +33.3%

From structural high -16.1%

From structural low +15.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	-3.3%-10.8% to +10.0%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-3.4%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-4.0%-15.3% to +24.7%	+22.2%	+22.2%	-2.8%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-0.8%-5.9% to +22.2%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-2.6%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+10.7%-11.9% to +23.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+12.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

VVA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map