Weekly structural research · TWO · Communication Services

6596 Stage Analysis

Kuang Hong Arts Management Incorporation

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 96.80Tenure NewBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 6−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 29/100directional strength

Maturity 8/100lifecycle context

Confidence 44/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +15.3%TWD 83.95 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	96.80	97.02	-37.26	393210	Balance	6	29
2026-10-02	96.60	98.10	-37.43	262027	Balance	2	18
2026-09-25	96.80	99.22	-37.84	408191	Balance	2	17
2026-09-18	97.00	100.18	-37.76	393137	Balance	3	19
2026-09-11	94.00	101.14	-39.58	390171	Downward Expansion	-12	25
2026-09-04	95.40	102.10	-40.42	50004	Downward Expansion	-24	32
2026-08-28	96.40	102.96	-40.86	69500	Downward Expansion	-34	32
2026-08-21	95.40	103.82	-41.26	192797	Downward Expansion	-46	37
2026-08-14	93.90	104.73	-43.80	96085	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2026-08-07	89.80	105.72	-45.23	61017	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2026-07-31	88.00	106.83	-45.79	72031	Downward Expansion	-71	82
2026-07-24	87.60	107.93	-47.46	74197	Downward Expansion	-77	88
2026-07-17	86.00	109.16	-48.05	293420	Downward Expansion	-89	93
2026-07-10	91.50	110.40	-49.02	617110	Downward Expansion	-76	86
2026-07-03	95.30	111.39	-49.61	513894	Downward Expansion	-66	82
2026-06-26	92.10	112.28	-49.74	665349	Downward Expansion	-75	77
2026-06-19	94.00	113.21	-51.63	736010	Downward Expansion	-71	60
2026-06-12	94.60	114.09	-49.63	1465191	Downward Expansion	-72	60
2026-06-05	97.10	115.16	-50.02	910406	Downward Expansion	-66	57
2026-05-29	96.00	116.68	-50.87	973525	Downward Expansion	-71	61
2026-05-22	98.00	118.02	-47.65	829203	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2026-05-15	97.50	119.09	-47.08	2013949	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2026-05-08	98.50	120.19	-47.67	1214700	Downward Expansion	-72	78
2026-05-01	100.00	121.27	-43.55	1152431	Downward Expansion	-70	86
2026-04-24	101.00	122.20	-43.33	1429147	Downward Expansion	-69	88
2026-04-17	100.50	123.23	-40.69	1811066	Downward Expansion	-75	89
2026-04-10	101.50	124.52	-37.98	1887777	Downward Expansion	-80	86
2026-04-03	97.20	125.81	-35.63	3612218	Downward Expansion	-82	76
2026-03-27	115.50	127.53	-24.96	5392386	Balance	-47	18
2026-03-20	126.61	128.33	-18.84	4597881	Balance	-2	17
2026-03-13	129.22	128.19	-16.66	6981657	Balance	2	18
2026-03-06	130.09	128.01	-16.35	3828423	Balance	6	15
2026-02-27	125.74	127.61	-23.07	1862551	Downward Expansion	-28	15
2026-02-13	125.74	127.21	-18.80	1216376	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2026-02-06	122.69	127.04	-16.06	3197572	Downward Expansion	-49	31
2026-01-30	121.38	127.55	-17.40	1542174	Downward Expansion	-52	28
2026-01-23	122.25	128.36	-16.28	1276478	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2026-01-16	122.69	128.49	-14.25	1354449	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2026-01-09	123.56	128.62	-10.12	1785255	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2026-01-02	123.12	128.68	-7.18	1239190	Downward Expansion	-51	29
2025-12-26	120.95	128.32	-5.85	1096600	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2025-12-19	124.43	127.94	0.41	1047112	Rotation Down	-28	34
2025-12-12	123.12	127.62	-1.62	1771984	Rotation Down	-31	49
2025-12-05	121.38	126.94	-1.51	903394	Rotation Down	-23	49
2025-11-28	121.82	126.33	0.85	1502050	Deceleration	-20	31
2025-11-21	120.08	124.87	4.75	2251760	Deceleration	-3	13
2025-11-14	120.51	123.51	2.32	5098065	Deceleration	1	2
2025-11-07	126.61	122.05	7.44	11726479	Deceleration	36	20
2025-10-31	142.70	120.16	19.68	2984766	Deceleration	62	35
2025-10-24	136.18	118.00	18.46	1978557	Deceleration	40	21
2025-10-17	130.09	116.09	15.44	1979613	Deceleration	30	18
2025-10-10	130.52	114.41	17.06	1324785	Deceleration	33	19
2025-10-03	130.96	112.51	21.05	852515	Deceleration	38	22
2025-09-26	127.91	110.52	25.07	3900552	Upward Expansion	51	32
2025-09-19	131.83	108.68	30.41	2958961	Upward Expansion	58	51
2025-09-12	139.22	106.81	39.98	4471750	Upward Expansion	60	65
2025-09-05	140.09	104.68	48.50	11344474	Upward Expansion	62	60
2025-08-29	148.79	102.41	61.78	6786195	Deceleration	77	61
2025-08-22	139.66	99.84	57.77	8183722	Deceleration	69	42
2025-08-15	122.25	97.59	37.38	3718835	Deceleration	37	22
2025-08-08	123.99	95.85	43.02	10781289	Deceleration	39	26
2025-08-01	117.90	94.06	41.28	2679688	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-07-25	113.99	92.56	38.85	2467630	Upward Expansion	53	48
2025-07-18	120.51	90.98	48.64	5978208	Upward Expansion	66	62
2025-07-11	137.92	88.98	77.51	10499558	Upward Expansion	74	69
2025-07-04	145.75	86.39	93.14	7885884	Upward Expansion	91	79
2025-06-27	126.17	83.51	70.78	3156094	Upward Expansion	76	70
2025-06-20	126.61	81.24	78.79	5063551	Upward Expansion	82	72
2025-06-13	125.30	78.99	80.17	5571615	Upward Expansion	88	91
2025-06-06	112.25	76.75	67.55	3316235	Upward Expansion	75	90
2025-05-30	109.64	74.96	68.61	2779116	Upward Expansion	77	92
2025-05-23	114.86	73.30	76.81	2052850	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-05-16	102.68	71.39	59.10	6268241	Upward Expansion	90	94
2025-05-09	103.11	69.89	68.80	8109152	Upward Expansion	92	83
2025-05-02	78.14	68.40	30.20	599740	Upward Expansion	58	34
2025-04-25	79.10	67.76	38.08	1330850	Upward Expansion	65	37
2025-04-18	76.75	67.05	38.06	1538471	Upward Expansion	60	38
2025-04-11	69.96	66.42	25.92	3283441	Upward Expansion	55	41
2025-04-04	77.79	66.04	28.94	1859041	Upward Expansion	64	65
2025-03-28	79.00	65.52	29.75	2331020	Upward Expansion	72	53
2025-03-21	79.64	64.72	27.87	4149859	Upward Expansion	75	48
2025-03-14	73.60	63.81	20.19	1334758	Upward Expansion	59	41
2025-03-07	71.26	63.18	14.08	1172616	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-02-28	72.71	62.73	14.83	734615	Upward Expansion	64	54
2025-02-21	75.61	62.18	16.89	1794273	Upward Expansion	74	61
2025-02-14	75.45	61.55	20.50	4100818	Upward Expansion	79	64
2025-02-07	71.98	60.98	14.21	1098786	Upward Expansion	70	62
2025-01-24	71.74	60.55	14.31	730000	Upward Expansion	70	73
2025-01-17	71.90	60.13	17.16	1567000	Upward Expansion	74	87
2025-01-10	70.29	59.66	15.96	3055000	Upward Expansion	73	88
2025-01-03	70.21	59.23	17.01	6940000	Upward Expansion	80	89
2024-12-27	72.79	58.83	20.12	5533000	Upward Expansion	94	92
2024-12-20	66.58	58.35	14.44	6866000	Upward Expansion	86	76
2024-12-13	60.62	58.11	2.48	1874000	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-12-06	60.13	58.15	1.24	715000	Balance	61	45
2024-11-29	59.41	58.18	4.40	946000	Balance	26	17
2024-11-22	58.20	58.36	-0.33	328930	Balance	16	8
2024-11-15	59.09	58.78	2.13	1233000	Balance	2	9
2024-11-08	57.96	58.85	-3.02	432000	Balance	-12	8
2024-11-01	58.60	58.89	1.51	649112	Balance	-10	7
2024-10-25	59.82	58.93	1.29	1175008	Balance	-3	5
2024-10-18	57.64	58.90	-2.82	244000	Balance	-24	11
2024-10-11	57.55	58.96	-0.32	375000	Balance	-14	8
2024-10-04	58.52	58.82	4.27	547000	Balance	-8	9
2024-09-27	59.01	58.37	3.01	400000	Balance	11	12
2024-09-20	57.55	57.73	3.67	248000	Balance	8	18
2024-09-13	58.12	57.11	6.92	596000	Deceleration	23	21
2024-09-06	58.28	56.46	9.24	1002000	Deceleration	19	11
2024-08-30	62.47	55.87	13.07	3544000	Deceleration	34	19
2024-08-23	54.98	55.10	0.36	580000	Deceleration	-24	49
2024-08-16	52.23	54.59	-5.28	928000	Deceleration	-26	51
2024-08-09	54.65	54.15	3.23	1310000	Deceleration	-13	28
2024-08-02	57.72	53.66	8.36	697000	Deceleration	11	13
2024-07-26	56.43	53.05	3.95	564000	Deceleration	8	10
2024-07-19	56.67	52.45	1.19	794000	Deceleration	18	14
2024-07-12	58.12	51.83	-0.61	1588000	Deceleration	23	17
2024-07-05	59.25	51.18	2.99	826000	Deceleration	24	17
2024-06-28	59.25	50.57	5.35	718000	Deceleration	34	19
2024-06-21	57.55	49.94	1.33	794000	Deceleration	32	24
2024-06-14	57.47	49.32	4.40	724000	Deceleration	34	25
2024-06-07	58.20	48.70	8.65	982000	Deceleration	39	26
2024-05-31	58.28	48.04	11.98	1100000	Upward Expansion	43	31
2024-05-24	59.41	47.37	12.42	1189000	Upward Expansion	50	43
2024-05-17	61.99	46.65	19.45	2235000	Upward Expansion	65	61
2024-05-10	61.10	45.82	21.26	7005000	Upward Expansion	67	65
2024-05-03	64.65	45.05	31.26	3969000	Upward Expansion	70	68
2024-04-26	70.77	44.15	46.16	9946000	Upward Expansion	96	78
2024-04-19	61.26	43.07	31.70	5399000	Upward Expansion	78	88
2024-04-12	59.25	42.24	20.92	3011000	Upward Expansion	72	90
2024-04-05	59.65	41.51	24.90	1392000	Upward Expansion	84	94
2024-03-29	59.09	40.80	24.78	3129000	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-03-22	59.26	40.12	26.40	5689000	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-03-15	53.32	39.37	17.67	12277000	Upward Expansion	94	95
2024-03-08	45.05	38.83	-0.61	3939000	Upward Expansion	84	68
2024-03-01	39.94	38.61	-7.83	313000	Balance	53	24
2024-02-23	39.03	38.56	-9.74	411000	Balance	33	16
2024-02-16	38.58	38.57	-9.51	569000	Balance	41	21
2024-02-09	40.39	38.57	-2.67	210000	Balance	60	40
2024-02-02	39.56	38.55	-4.38	494000	Balance	49	33
2024-01-26	39.48	38.61	-4.17	359000	Balance	46	31
2024-01-19	39.03	38.77	-3.59	367803	Balance	6	7
2024-01-12	40.01	39.00	-0.19	1216000	Balance	16	10
2024-01-05	39.41	39.27	-1.69	835000	Balance	-11	11
2023-12-29	38.36	39.67	-6.57	476000	Balance	-25	12
2023-12-22	38.21	39.71	-5.26	328000	Balance	-10	15
2023-12-15	38.73	39.68	-4.47	842000	Balance	-0	24
2023-12-08	40.69	39.74	1.98	1583000	Balance	30	41
2023-12-01	40.46	39.62	1.30	2059000	Balance	10	20
2023-11-24	38.96	39.50	-1.42	501000	Balance	-10	13
2023-11-17	38.81	39.37	-1.28	535000	Balance	-18	13
2023-11-10	38.36	39.18	0.70	534000	Balance	-34	19
2023-11-03	38.36	39.02	1.75	318000	Deceleration	-35	19
2023-10-27	37.75	38.88	2.43	139000	Deceleration	-12	15
2023-10-20	36.93	38.73	-1.69	339576	Deceleration	-30	20
2023-10-13	38.21	38.63	-0.44	296531	Deceleration	-13	16
2023-10-06	37.62	38.44	-0.50	919046	Deceleration	-24	26

Price vs TrendBelow-0.2%

Trend directionFalling-9.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+15.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+0.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-37.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+11.8%

Price momentumNegative-4.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.96×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

6 / ±100

+18.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

29 /100

+4.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

6596 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance43

Rotation Up48

Upward Expansion43

Deceleration25

Rotation Down15

Downward Expansion46

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Upward Expansion 32%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 21%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	-0.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-09-11	Established	-3.3%
Balance	2026-03-06	2026-03-27	New	-11.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-02-27	Developing	+4.0%
Rotation Down	2025-12-05	2025-12-19	New	+2.5%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-11-28	Developing	-7.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-09-26	New	-8.7%
Deceleration	2025-08-08	2025-08-29	New	+20.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-08-01	Extended	+94.5%
Balance	2024-09-20	2024-12-06	Developing	+4.5%
Deceleration	2024-06-07	2024-09-13	Established	-0.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-08	2024-05-31	Established	+29.4%
Balance	2023-11-10	2024-03-01	Established	+4.1%
Deceleration	2023-07-21	2023-11-03	Established	-1.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing55

Stage 2 · Advancing9

Stage 3 · Distribution39

Stage 4 · Declining91

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 28/100
Current Relative Strength: -37.26
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -4.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -43.9%
Communication Services regime cohort: 25th percentile8 in cohort

Test 6596 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.91×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.96×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 6596 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 96.59rising

Slow Activity TWD 94.70falling

Trend Reference TWD 97.02-0.2% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 83.95+15.3% close margin

Structural low TWD 85.90shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +2.7%

Annualized volatility +16.3%

From structural high -37.3%

From structural low +12.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	+0.1%-25.3% to +48.0%	+52.6%	+52.6%	+0.9%	+63.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-1.3%-25.4% to +51.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.6%	+12.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-3.8%-26.7% to +59.3%	+33.3%	+33.3%	+0.1%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+32.3%-16.2% to +107.9%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+5.2%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

6596 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map