Weekly structural research · TAI · Consumer Cyclical

8411 Stage Analysis

Kingcan Holdings Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 11.75Tenure NewBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction -35−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 46/100directional strength

Maturity 9/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -10.4%TWD 13.12 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	11.75	12.34	-30.61	829192	Rotation Down	-35	46
2026-10-02	11.60	12.35	-31.22	1083326	Rotation Down	-40	40
2026-09-25	12.10	12.37	-28.60	567782	Upward Expansion	10	13
2026-09-18	12.60	12.38	-25.35	520794	Upward Expansion	45	32
2026-09-11	13.00	12.37	-22.32	225120	Upward Expansion	61	46
2026-09-04	13.00	12.33	-23.89	42200	Upward Expansion	62	45
2026-08-28	12.95	12.30	-24.79	24521	Upward Expansion	60	45
2026-08-21	12.80	12.27	-24.84	45000	Upward Expansion	61	65
2026-08-14	12.95	12.24	-25.86	27200	Upward Expansion	64	76
2026-08-07	12.80	12.21	-25.05	125100	Upward Expansion	65	75
2026-07-31	13.30	12.19	-21.14	163500	Upward Expansion	84	83
2026-07-24	13.10	12.15	-24.18	171144	Balance	81	70
2026-07-17	12.40	12.12	-27.47	140050	Balance	54	33
2026-07-10	12.30	12.11	-33.19	0	Balance	3	4
2026-07-03	12.25	12.10	-36.39	677000	Balance	-22	10
2026-06-26	11.76	12.10	-36.82	468014	Balance	-60	36
2026-06-19	12.05	12.13	-38.75	845215	Balance	-43	18
2026-06-12	12.10	12.14	-36.24	969372	Balance	-44	25
2026-06-05	12.00	12.15	-38.88	603921	Balance	-47	32
2026-05-29	12.10	12.17	-38.84	670441	Balance	-44	26
2026-05-22	11.91	12.19	-37.23	335155	Balance	-52	30
2026-05-15	12.10	12.21	-35.34	424884	Balance	-30	14
2026-05-08	12.15	12.23	-36.66	489103	Balance	-26	11
2026-05-01	12.15	12.24	-33.23	233672	Balance	-16	7
2026-04-24	12.05	12.26	-34.68	354104	Balance	-21	9
2026-04-17	12.25	12.29	-30.74	446094	Balance	-12	8
2026-04-10	12.25	12.31	-28.83	387737	Balance	-15	7
2026-04-03	12.15	12.33	-24.03	440197	Downward Expansion	-31	15
2026-03-27	12.15	12.35	-25.93	503250	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2026-03-20	12.15	12.37	-27.52	419922	Downward Expansion	-30	13
2026-03-13	12.00	12.39	-28.76	344126	Downward Expansion	-37	19
2026-03-06	12.05	12.42	-29.50	446829	Downward Expansion	-36	17
2026-02-27	12.40	12.44	-31.76	403030	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2026-02-13	12.40	12.46	-28.64	272132	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2026-02-06	11.86	12.48	-28.41	319281	Downward Expansion	-65	51
2026-01-30	12.00	12.51	-28.64	351268	Downward Expansion	-59	40
2026-01-23	12.00	12.54	-28.87	559777	Downward Expansion	-60	38
2026-01-16	11.96	12.56	-28.41	316554	Downward Expansion	-66	40
2026-01-09	12.10	12.59	-25.34	403606	Downward Expansion	-60	37
2026-01-02	12.30	12.62	-22.15	477522	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2025-12-26	12.10	12.63	-21.66	384475	Downward Expansion	-63	65
2025-12-19	12.10	12.66	-19.60	298559	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2025-12-12	12.15	12.69	-21.06	127454	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2025-12-05	11.96	12.71	-22.13	252949	Downward Expansion	-82	72
2025-11-28	12.30	12.76	-19.29	414651	Downward Expansion	-66	51
2025-11-21	12.50	12.78	-14.69	128266	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2025-11-14	12.45	12.79	-18.34	219891	Downward Expansion	-61	40
2025-11-07	12.45	12.80	-19.45	180111	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2025-10-31	12.60	12.79	-20.61	391826	Downward Expansion	-56	52
2025-10-24	12.65	12.80	-18.66	131739	Downward Expansion	-54	54
2025-10-17	12.50	12.81	-19.28	306835	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2025-10-10	12.60	12.83	-19.04	155491	Balance	-57	40
2025-10-03	12.70	12.86	-17.25	173862	Balance	-49	21
2025-09-26	12.70	12.87	-13.82	253288	Balance	-41	17
2025-09-19	12.90	12.89	-12.85	142418	Balance	-27	12
2025-09-12	12.90	12.91	-12.89	181250	Balance	-42	26
2025-09-05	12.75	12.92	-10.86	266602	Balance	-52	38
2025-08-29	12.70	12.93	-10.59	149303	Balance	-57	37
2025-08-22	12.75	12.94	-8.82	205204	Balance	-51	26
2025-08-15	12.85	12.95	-10.53	192353	Balance	-34	15
2025-08-08	12.85	12.96	-9.72	163208	Balance	-30	14
2025-08-01	12.85	12.96	-7.83	198120	Balance	-30	14
2025-07-25	12.85	12.96	-7.85	446350	Balance	-30	14
2025-07-18	13.05	12.95	-6.75	365583	Balance	-23	11
2025-07-11	12.85	12.95	-5.76	146670	Balance	-46	27
2025-07-04	12.90	12.96	-4.70	258320	Balance	-44	26
2025-06-27	12.60	12.97	-7.11	243267	Balance	-52	33
2025-06-20	12.80	12.99	-3.49	219414	Balance	-45	20
2025-06-13	12.85	13.01	-3.34	111008	Balance	-41	18
2025-06-06	12.75	13.04	-2.42	145000	Balance	-35	15
2025-05-30	13.05	13.08	1.11	208469	Balance	-23	13
2025-05-23	12.95	13.10	-1.12	157305	Balance	-27	15
2025-05-16	12.85	13.13	-2.87	323229	Balance	-30	16
2025-05-09	13.24	13.16	4.27	229020	Balance	-22	11
2025-05-02	13.00	13.19	2.89	159657	Downward Expansion	-51	38
2025-04-25	12.85	13.22	6.28	255265	Downward Expansion	-54	53
2025-04-18	12.75	13.26	7.93	763670	Downward Expansion	-53	55
2025-04-11	12.01	13.30	1.00	766019	Balance	-75	61
2025-04-04	12.95	13.36	-0.26	113000	Balance	-39	24
2025-03-28	12.95	13.40	-1.85	215397	Balance	-37	18
2025-03-21	13.19	13.44	-2.91	469337	Balance	-12	9
2025-03-14	13.29	13.47	-1.44	190240	Balance	-11	11
2025-03-07	13.24	13.49	-4.79	130680	Balance	-13	13
2025-02-28	13.34	13.52	-6.54	166251	Balance	-13	12
2025-02-21	13.29	13.56	-10.04	298197	Downward Expansion	-30	17
2025-02-14	13.24	13.60	-8.71	312342	Downward Expansion	-33	18
2025-02-07	13.10	13.64	-11.52	261392	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2025-01-24	13.00	13.69	-12.94	150381	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2025-01-17	13.05	13.71	-11.82	205283	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2025-01-10	13.00	13.74	-12.28	254096	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2025-01-03	12.95	13.77	-12.92	271210	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2024-12-27	12.95	13.80	-15.02	219864	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2024-12-20	12.50	13.83	-15.83	542127	Downward Expansion	-82	78
2024-12-13	13.00	13.86	-15.16	344396	Downward Expansion	-71	73
2024-12-06	13.19	13.89	-15.20	203459	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2024-11-29	13.10	13.91	-12.95	463514	Downward Expansion	-73	70
2024-11-22	13.24	13.92	-14.95	426684	Downward Expansion	-71	61
2024-11-15	13.34	13.92	-14.28	939248	Deceleration	-42	43
2024-11-08	13.79	13.92	-15.01	378627	Deceleration	-23	27
2024-11-01	13.94	13.91	-11.77	233013	Deceleration	-10	17
2024-10-25	13.69	13.88	-15.96	606112	Deceleration	-17	15
2024-10-18	13.74	13.88	-16.73	879830	Deceleration	2	5
2024-10-11	13.84	13.87	-14.58	5195894	Deceleration	5	4
2024-10-04	14.23	13.87	-10.31	707019	Deceleration	23	12
2024-09-27	13.94	13.86	-14.66	584896	Deceleration	8	13
2024-09-20	13.94	13.88	-12.66	252876	Deceleration	9	11
2024-09-13	13.89	13.89	-11.88	227356	Deceleration	9	9
2024-09-06	13.89	13.90	-11.00	226149	Deceleration	22	13
2024-08-30	14.13	13.90	-13.23	195464	Deceleration	31	19
2024-08-23	14.18	13.89	-12.96	180771	Deceleration	33	19
2024-08-16	14.08	13.89	-14.74	255065	Upward Expansion	36	18
2024-08-09	13.94	13.90	-12.66	773816	Upward Expansion	42	25
2024-08-02	14.23	13.92	-12.00	348255	Rotation Up	58	51
2024-07-26	14.33	13.95	-13.83	269679	Rotation Up	35	58
2024-07-19	14.45	13.97	-16.43	392324	Rotation Up	42	61
2024-07-12	14.55	13.98	-20.09	540566	Rotation Up	41	57
2024-07-05	14.50	14.00	-19.69	806492	Balance	40	44
2024-06-28	13.86	13.99	-22.04	341805	Balance	-5	12
2024-06-21	13.86	13.99	-23.27	307229	Balance	-6	12
2024-06-14	13.81	14.00	-21.50	241863	Balance	-11	12
2024-06-07	13.86	14.01	-19.35	224041	Downward Expansion	-22	16
2024-05-31	13.81	14.00	-17.51	800445	Downward Expansion	-29	22
2024-05-24	13.56	14.00	-20.88	649923	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2024-05-17	13.66	14.00	-19.64	500400	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2024-05-10	14.01	14.00	-15.95	790735	Downward Expansion	-38	31
2024-05-03	13.22	14.00	-19.70	253367	Downward Expansion	-71	75
2024-04-26	13.32	14.02	-18.82	374563	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2024-04-19	13.37	14.04	-16.59	490043	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2024-04-12	13.37	14.05	-21.92	1643032	Downward Expansion	-70	81
2024-04-05	13.22	14.08	-21.77	273442	Rotation Down	-81	82
2024-03-29	13.51	14.10	-20.37	1345617	Rotation Down	-46	62
2024-03-22	13.51	14.11	-20.58	478787	Balance	-41	52
2024-03-15	13.76	14.12	-17.35	533615	Balance	-33	24
2024-03-08	14.20	14.12	-15.61	494689	Balance	19	10
2024-03-01	14.25	14.13	-11.98	324290	Balance	8	12
2024-02-23	14.25	14.15	-12.13	642245	Balance	-13	21
2024-02-16	14.20	14.17	-11.57	398197	Rotation Up	-5	22
2024-02-09	13.96	14.21	-10.94	94000	Rotation Up	-11	26
2024-02-02	13.96	14.25	-11.01	258320	Rotation Up	-17	23
2024-01-26	14.20	14.29	-9.37	301510	Rotation Up	8	9
2024-01-19	14.30	14.30	-7.33	592613	Rotation Up	31	31
2024-01-12	14.64	14.31	-4.37	667097	Rotation Up	38	60
2024-01-05	14.94	14.31	-2.66	270105	Rotation Up	44	75
2023-12-29	14.94	14.30	-5.07	477877	Rotation Up	41	72
2023-12-22	14.89	14.29	-3.73	334911	Rotation Up	44	68
2023-12-15	14.94	14.28	-3.92	685293	Downward Expansion	45	44
2023-12-08	14.25	14.26	-6.89	512683	Downward Expansion	2	16
2023-12-01	14.05	14.27	-8.52	319426	Downward Expansion	-29	21
2023-11-24	14.05	14.30	-7.78	231833	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2023-11-17	13.96	14.32	-8.08	186703	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2023-11-10	13.81	14.34	-6.31	114688	Downward Expansion	-58	50
2023-11-03	13.71	14.37	-6.29	90267	Downward Expansion	-59	58
2023-10-27	13.51	14.40	-5.78	164445	Downward Expansion	-74	67
2023-10-20	13.76	14.44	-6.13	149807	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2023-10-13	13.81	14.46	-7.96	111136	Downward Expansion	-61	43
2023-10-06	13.96	14.49	-5.89	117342	Downward Expansion	-56	39

Price vs TrendBelow-4.8%

Trend directionRising+1.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-10.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-30.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+2.6%

Price momentumNegative-4.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.60×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-35 / ±100

-96.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

46 /100

+0.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

8411 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance21

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion23

Deceleration57

Rotation Down70

Downward Expansion44

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 35%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 7%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 39%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+1.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-09-25	Developing	-9.0%
Balance	2026-04-10	2026-07-24	Established	+6.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-17	2026-04-03	Established	-2.8%
Balance	2025-05-09	2025-10-10	Established	-4.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-05-02	New	+1.9%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-04-11	Developing	-10.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-02-21	Established	+0.4%
Deceleration	2024-08-23	2024-11-15	Established	-5.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-09	2024-08-16	New	+1.1%
Rotation Up	2024-07-12	2024-08-02	New	-2.2%
Balance	2024-06-14	2024-07-05	New	+5.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-04-12	2024-06-07	Developing	+3.7%
Rotation Down	2024-03-29	2024-04-05	New	-2.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing66

Stage 2 · Advancing23

Stage 3 · Distribution40

Stage 4 · Declining77

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: -30.61
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -4.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -43.3%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 50th percentile18 in cohort

Test 8411 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.02×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.60×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 8411 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 11.98falling

Slow Activity TWD 12.43falling

Trend Reference TWD 12.34-4.8% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 13.12-10.4% close margin

Structural low TWD 11.11shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +3.5%

Annualized volatility +16.2%

From structural high -11.7%

From structural low +5.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	+2.8%-1.5% to +5.3%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+7.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	3	+11.9%+2.5% to +16.5%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+12.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+3.1%-18.3% to +25.7%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-9.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+1.3%-4.2% to +6.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+10.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

8411 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map