Weekly structural research · ASX · Financial Services

RG1 Stage Analysis

Regal Partners Global Investments Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 2.46Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 38−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 24/100directional strength

Maturity 62/100lifecycle context

Confidence 93/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +37.2%AUD 1.79 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	2.46	2.32	16.02	687186	Deceleration	38	24
2026-10-02	2.50	2.30	19.07	1668301	Upward Expansion	44	34
2026-09-25	2.57	2.28	23.41	1465378	Upward Expansion	53	52
2026-09-18	2.55	2.26	22.41	2606193	Upward Expansion	61	56
2026-09-11	2.53	2.24	22.17	1925482	Upward Expansion	64	62
2026-09-04	2.64	2.22	24.69	219762	Upward Expansion	80	78
2026-08-28	2.53	2.19	19.37	240135	Upward Expansion	66	67
2026-08-21	2.61	2.17	24.52	227169	Upward Expansion	81	81
2026-08-14	2.62	2.15	25.25	374681	Upward Expansion	84	70
2026-08-07	2.52	2.13	19.67	569808	Upward Expansion	74	67
2026-07-31	2.51	2.10	23.91	966512	Upward Expansion	76	70
2026-07-24	2.42	2.08	23.24	358164	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-07-17	2.48	2.07	26.72	402048	Upward Expansion	72	70
2026-07-10	2.52	2.05	29.68	464854	Upward Expansion	90	76
2026-07-03	2.45	2.02	26.56	331422	Upward Expansion	88	75
2026-06-26	2.43	2.01	27.57	324831	Upward Expansion	91	77
2026-06-19	2.34	1.99	22.85	409336	Upward Expansion	77	90
2026-06-12	2.26	1.97	19.82	275890	Upward Expansion	66	88
2026-06-05	2.33	1.96	26.91	958880	Upward Expansion	93	98
2026-05-29	2.35	1.95	27.44	635255	Upward Expansion	95	98
2026-05-22	2.34	1.93	29.05	239835	Deceleration	93	77
2026-05-15	1.95	1.92	8.76	0	Deceleration	56	62
2026-05-08	1.95	1.91	7.77	0	Deceleration	57	64
2026-05-01	1.95	1.91	8.43	0	Deceleration	57	64
2026-04-24	1.95	1.91	8.25	0	Deceleration	57	65
2026-04-17	1.95	1.90	6.74	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2026-04-10	1.95	1.90	7.01	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2026-04-03	1.95	1.89	12.16	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2026-03-27	1.95	1.88	13.41	0	Upward Expansion	67	74
2026-03-20	1.95	1.87	14.93	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2026-03-13	1.95	1.86	12.66	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2026-03-06	1.95	1.85	9.84	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2026-02-27	1.95	1.84	5.77	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2026-02-20	1.95	1.84	7.19	0	Upward Expansion	93	98
2026-02-13	1.89	1.82	5.77	0	Deceleration	57	84
2026-02-06	1.89	1.82	8.38	0	Deceleration	53	74
2026-01-30	1.89	1.81	6.59	0	Deceleration	52	69
2026-01-23	1.89	1.80	6.86	0	Deceleration	51	64
2026-01-16	1.89	1.79	6.51	0	Deceleration	47	58
2026-01-09	1.89	1.78	8.93	0	Deceleration	46	53
2026-01-02	1.89	1.77	9.02	0	Deceleration	46	50
2025-12-26	1.89	1.76	8.78	0	Deceleration	45	42
2025-12-19	1.89	1.75	10.83	0	Deceleration	47	43
2025-12-12	1.89	1.74	10.16	0	Upward Expansion	57	48
2025-12-05	1.89	1.73	11.15	0	Upward Expansion	60	53
2025-11-28	1.89	1.71	11.61	0	Upward Expansion	60	55
2025-11-21	1.89	1.70	14.40	2186155	Upward Expansion	62	58
2025-11-14	1.93	1.68	13.98	1711226	Upward Expansion	76	65
2025-11-07	1.88	1.66	9.24	1083542	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-10-31	1.90	1.64	9.21	1363867	Upward Expansion	75	68
2025-10-24	1.85	1.63	4.66	1275300	Upward Expansion	67	80
2025-10-17	1.88	1.62	6.10	1937150	Upward Expansion	74	89
2025-10-10	1.87	1.61	6.17	1156788	Upward Expansion	80	92
2025-10-03	1.89	1.61	6.81	2687464	Upward Expansion	92	95
2025-09-26	1.81	1.60	4.35	1007851	Upward Expansion	84	89
2025-09-19	1.79	1.60	3.56	1065140	Upward Expansion	83	79
2025-09-12	1.73	1.60	-0.83	1184474	Upward Expansion	73	63
2025-09-05	1.68	1.60	-4.03	3393962	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-08-29	1.68	1.60	-5.55	1610129	Rotation Up	58	39
2025-08-22	1.69	1.60	-5.07	1892698	Rotation Up	37	34
2025-08-15	1.65	1.60	-7.34	1119878	Rotation Up	18	23
2025-08-08	1.64	1.60	-6.48	1713410	Rotation Up	29	28
2025-08-01	1.68	1.60	-2.65	1271370	Rotation Up	40	39
2025-07-25	1.64	1.59	-5.58	769259	Rotation Up	25	49
2025-07-18	1.65	1.59	-6.01	1226342	Rotation Up	28	59
2025-07-11	1.66	1.59	-4.03	641800	Rotation Up	28	59
2025-07-04	1.70	1.59	-2.04	936274	Rotation Up	39	53
2025-06-27	1.66	1.59	-3.68	2975838	Balance	31	32
2025-06-20	1.58	1.59	-7.91	1877807	Balance	-3	16
2025-06-13	1.58	1.60	-8.62	1665710	Downward Expansion	-16	19
2025-06-06	1.56	1.60	-10.18	2313176	Downward Expansion	-30	25
2025-05-30	1.51	1.61	-12.32	2995178	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2025-05-23	1.51	1.62	-11.89	679379	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2025-05-16	1.53	1.63	-10.64	1524860	Downward Expansion	-47	38
2025-05-09	1.44	1.64	-14.92	1200927	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2025-05-02	1.42	1.65	-16.89	1514131	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2025-04-25	1.43	1.67	-13.50	1186605	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2025-04-18	1.37	1.68	-15.86	946269	Downward Expansion	-83	91
2025-04-11	1.38	1.69	-13.69	3213125	Downward Expansion	-89	88
2025-04-04	1.44	1.70	-10.39	1359974	Downward Expansion	-89	81
2025-03-28	1.58	1.71	-5.43	1425049	Balance	-58	44
2025-03-21	1.65	1.71	-1.00	842493	Balance	-42	27
2025-03-14	1.65	1.71	0.52	1875690	Balance	-36	16
2025-03-07	1.69	1.71	1.09	1559981	Balance	10	18
2025-02-28	1.69	1.71	-1.56	1932345	Balance	13	23
2025-02-21	1.81	1.71	4.07	2548850	Balance	35	35
2025-02-14	1.76	1.71	-1.91	2249196	Balance	13	19
2025-02-07	1.71	1.70	-4.15	1280194	Downward Expansion	-26	19
2025-01-31	1.68	1.70	-5.66	1260807	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-01-24	1.65	1.71	-6.33	1498472	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2025-01-17	1.65	1.71	-5.24	2047811	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2025-01-10	1.63	1.71	-5.89	928692	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2025-01-03	1.63	1.71	-5.39	1461481	Rotation Down	-65	75
2024-12-27	1.57	1.71	-8.91	594604	Rotation Down	-40	67
2024-12-20	1.55	1.72	-8.37	2270085	Deceleration	-47	59
2024-12-13	1.66	1.72	-4.60	2591298	Deceleration	-30	32
2024-12-06	1.69	1.72	-4.10	1441729	Deceleration	7	19
2024-11-29	1.73	1.72	-1.87	3536491	Deceleration	26	20
2024-11-22	1.75	1.71	-0.26	4162373	Upward Expansion	41	24
2024-11-15	1.76	1.71	1.99	1692235	Upward Expansion	59	43
2024-11-08	1.81	1.70	4.61	1657855	Upward Expansion	64	61
2024-11-01	1.85	1.70	9.46	2498650	Upward Expansion	71	75
2024-10-25	1.86	1.69	9.05	2403662	Upward Expansion	77	81
2024-10-18	1.80	1.69	5.20	1735586	Upward Expansion	65	76
2024-10-11	1.80	1.68	6.32	1268469	Upward Expansion	67	74
2024-10-04	1.82	1.67	8.27	2015286	Balance	74	67
2024-09-27	1.78	1.66	5.89	3157082	Balance	66	39
2024-09-20	1.68	1.66	-0.06	2520624	Balance	15	9
2024-09-13	1.65	1.65	-0.21	2410556	Balance	7	6
2024-09-06	1.66	1.65	1.30	2593477	Balance	12	9
2024-08-30	1.69	1.64	2.68	2514724	Upward Expansion	33	19
2024-08-23	1.68	1.64	3.25	1721887	Upward Expansion	27	20
2024-08-16	1.70	1.63	4.93	1525871	Upward Expansion	35	20
2024-08-09	1.60	1.62	1.54	2998894	Upward Expansion	8	11
2024-08-02	1.68	1.62	4.78	1524687	Upward Expansion	55	37
2024-07-26	1.73	1.61	7.97	3554062	Upward Expansion	67	49
2024-07-19	1.70	1.60	5.62	2547434	Upward Expansion	58	48
2024-07-12	1.70	1.59	6.25	2603974	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-07-05	1.72	1.58	9.39	1831586	Upward Expansion	70	56
2024-06-28	1.71	1.57	10.16	3251523	Upward Expansion	73	58
2024-06-21	1.68	1.56	8.11	2646387	Upward Expansion	63	61
2024-06-14	1.68	1.55	8.80	1642822	Upward Expansion	64	71
2024-06-07	1.69	1.54	8.33	3089098	Upward Expansion	70	78
2024-05-31	1.70	1.53	11.12	2705033	Upward Expansion	77	61
2024-05-24	1.68	1.52	9.63	5579737	Deceleration	72	51
2024-05-17	1.67	1.51	8.48	2076717	Deceleration	65	42
2024-05-10	1.61	1.50	5.62	1259214	Deceleration	43	32
2024-05-03	1.57	1.49	4.91	1416120	Upward Expansion	49	44
2024-04-26	1.61	1.48	8.57	931879	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-04-19	1.62	1.47	9.97	1608992	Upward Expansion	68	73
2024-04-12	1.66	1.47	9.55	1427350	Upward Expansion	77	90
2024-04-05	1.64	1.46	9.19	1025171	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-03-29	1.67	1.45	9.51	1471639	Upward Expansion	94	96
2024-03-22	1.61	1.44	7.45	6849215	Upward Expansion	87	85
2024-03-15	1.58	1.43	6.99	1576780	Upward Expansion	82	72
2024-03-08	1.56	1.42	3.95	2753403	Upward Expansion	82	67
2024-03-01	1.52	1.42	2.83	1670169	Upward Expansion	67	65
2024-02-23	1.52	1.41	4.40	2868874	Upward Expansion	69	75
2024-02-16	1.53	1.41	4.74	2859080	Upward Expansion	74	77
2024-02-09	1.52	1.41	4.87	2837282	Upward Expansion	77	83
2024-02-02	1.51	1.40	3.24	2651975	Upward Expansion	73	84
2024-01-26	1.50	1.40	4.79	934503	Upward Expansion	72	83
2024-01-19	1.51	1.40	7.97	2606844	Upward Expansion	84	89
2024-01-12	1.48	1.39	4.79	4171842	Upward Expansion	76	83
2024-01-05	1.46	1.39	3.68	1809595	Upward Expansion	70	76
2023-12-29	1.48	1.38	4.15	2229542	Balance	79	71
2023-12-22	1.44	1.38	2.96	4415517	Balance	42	36
2023-12-15	1.39	1.38	0.38	2937068	Balance	18	9
2023-12-08	1.38	1.37	3.78	2315911	Balance	18	15
2023-12-01	1.39	1.37	6.25	2937315	Balance	21	26
2023-11-24	1.35	1.37	4.47	3070636	Balance	30	27
2023-11-17	1.42	1.37	9.72	2297387	Balance	56	41
2023-11-10	1.41	1.36	10.98	1322900	Balance	23	21
2023-11-03	1.39	1.36	9.36	1521822	Balance	5	5
2023-10-27	1.35	1.36	9.01	1786343	Deceleration	-24	23
2023-10-20	1.34	1.36	7.49	1929478	Deceleration	-16	26

Price vs TrendAbove+6.2%

Trend directionRising+10.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+37.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-11.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+16.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-13.7%

Price momentumPositive+26.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.13×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

38 / ±100

-26.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

24 /100

-37.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

RG1 Directional State ↗ RG1 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance38

Rotation Up27

Upward Expansion60

Deceleration88

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 53%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 10%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-10-02	Established	+6.4%
Deceleration	2026-04-24	2026-05-22	Developing	+20.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-04-17	Developing	+0.0%
Deceleration	2025-12-19	2026-02-13	Developing	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-12-12	Established	+12.4%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-08-29	Developing	-1.2%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-06-27	New	+4.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-06-13	Developing	+10.1%
Balance	2025-02-14	2025-03-28	Developing	-9.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-10	2025-02-07	Developing	+4.5%
Rotation Down	2024-12-27	2025-01-03	New	+3.8%
Deceleration	2024-11-29	2024-12-20	New	-10.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-11	2024-11-22	Developing	-3.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing3

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution73

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 86/100
Current Relative Strength: 16.02
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +26.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +28.9%
Financial Services regime cohort: 88th percentile25 in cohort

Test RG1 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.91×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.13×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore RG1 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 2.51falling

Slow Activity AUD 2.44rising

Trend Reference AUD 2.32+6.2% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 1.79+37.2% close margin

Structural low AUD 1.95shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.5%

Annualized volatility +30.0%

From structural high -7.2%

From structural low +34.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	+1.9%-8.9% to +20.0%	+63.6%	+63.6%	+0.5%	+27.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+3.2%-3.4% to +24.3%	+57.1%	+57.1%	+3.1%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+8.0%-12.7% to +23.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+3.7%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-10.2%-25.2% to +25.0%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-16.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

RG1 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map