Weekly structural research · JPX · Technology

3970 Stage Analysis

Innovation Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 832.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Emerging rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -1−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 15/100directional strength

Maturity 22/100lifecycle context

Confidence 42/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -18.5%JPY 1,021.38 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	832.00	839.30	-18.34	6900	Rotation Up	-1	15
2026-09-18	830.00	842.07	-17.73	14200	Rotation Up	4	33
2026-09-11	840.00	844.58	-16.31	8700	Rotation Up	24	40
2026-09-04	851.00	846.44	-17.37	13100	Rotation Up	10	35
2026-08-28	846.00	849.34	-20.47	23100	Rotation Up	7	29
2026-08-21	872.00	851.42	-18.51	3700	Rotation Up	17	27
2026-08-14	825.00	852.95	-26.76	900	Downward Expansion	-36	25
2026-08-07	784.00	856.33	-27.96	0	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2026-07-31	797.00	860.28	-26.44	200	Downward Expansion	-45	38
2026-07-24	796.00	863.68	-27.84	300	Downward Expansion	-51	49
2026-07-17	805.00	866.59	-27.41	4700	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2026-07-10	773.00	869.87	-35.63	1700	Downward Expansion	-68	72
2026-07-03	769.00	874.32	-37.95	2200	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2026-06-26	745.00	879.64	-40.42	9500	Downward Expansion	-92	94
2026-06-19	774.00	886.07	-40.61	3800	Downward Expansion	-87	94
2026-06-12	805.00	891.06	-34.32	3800	Downward Expansion	-70	89
2026-06-05	810.00	894.88	-35.41	1300	Downward Expansion	-71	90
2026-05-29	801.00	898.77	-36.77	16100	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2026-05-22	796.00	902.98	-35.11	27200	Downward Expansion	-90	90
2026-05-15	819.00	907.59	-32.13	38400	Downward Expansion	-84	75
2026-05-08	897.00	911.42	-28.16	6900	Balance	-44	18
2026-05-01	896.00	913.01	-25.39	14900	Balance	-34	16
2026-04-24	909.00	914.89	-25.50	15600	Balance	-23	15
2026-04-17	915.00	916.50	-24.45	10200	Downward Expansion	-22	11
2026-04-10	913.00	917.96	-23.64	7600	Downward Expansion	-29	13
2026-04-03	906.00	919.40	-19.88	13200	Downward Expansion	-48	27
2026-03-27	893.00	921.33	-22.28	7600	Downward Expansion	-55	44
2026-03-20	904.49	923.79	-22.17	9900	Downward Expansion	-51	35
2026-03-13	886.30	926.02	-25.17	19900	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2026-03-06	889.17	928.57	-28.15	14100	Downward Expansion	-61	36
2026-02-27	915.01	933.42	-30.96	12400	Downward Expansion	-43	20
2026-02-20	905.44	936.61	-30.10	13800	Downward Expansion	-50	25
2026-02-13	895.87	938.94	-31.72	41200	Downward Expansion	-46	21
2026-02-06	937.99	941.43	-25.66	21300	Downward Expansion	-15	17
2026-01-30	908.31	942.48	-27.43	5100	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2026-01-23	917.89	944.53	-27.98	8500	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2026-01-16	926.50	946.69	-28.02	8800	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2026-01-09	902.57	948.03	-27.82	12300	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2026-01-02	898.74	950.78	-26.51	7600	Downward Expansion	-65	79
2025-12-26	883.43	953.59	-28.89	83300	Downward Expansion	-85	79
2025-12-19	903.53	957.06	-26.01	54300	Downward Expansion	-76	55
2025-12-12	906.40	960.70	-28.23	36000	Downward Expansion	-78	53
2025-12-05	928.41	964.21	-26.47	11700	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2025-11-28	937.99	968.68	-25.84	11800	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2025-11-21	923.63	972.19	-25.03	9700	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2025-11-14	919.80	976.78	-28.37	34200	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2025-11-07	926.50	981.79	-28.17	13500	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2025-10-31	927.46	985.36	-31.55	19000	Downward Expansion	-69	62
2025-10-24	934.16	987.76	-27.39	21800	Downward Expansion	-66	53
2025-10-17	934.16	993.08	-25.33	23900	Downward Expansion	-69	47
2025-10-10	944.68	998.57	-25.85	22600	Downward Expansion	-64	42
2025-10-03	952.34	1,003.00	-21.99	30700	Downward Expansion	-62	45
2025-09-26	957.13	1,008.26	-21.37	31600	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2025-09-19	959.04	1,013.23	-21.17	21800	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2025-09-12	956.17	1,018.53	-21.52	12400	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2025-09-05	963.83	1,021.66	-18.34	85900	Downward Expansion	-59	54
2025-08-29	966.70	1,026.31	-18.04	52300	Downward Expansion	-56	31
2025-08-22	971.48	1,030.19	-17.91	40700	Downward Expansion	-42	20
2025-08-15	962.87	1,033.88	-20.40	57700	Downward Expansion	-45	22
2025-08-08	1,034.65	1,037.95	-11.61	14400	Downward Expansion	-22	15
2025-08-01	1,010.73	1,041.08	-11.85	18700	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-07-25	975.31	1,043.92	-16.66	22500	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2025-07-18	970.53	1,047.67	-14.12	11300	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2025-07-11	969.57	1,050.78	-14.03	3900	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2025-07-04	969.57	1,053.05	-14.82	27000	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2025-06-27	982.97	1,055.76	-14.64	38700	Downward Expansion	-58	50
2025-06-20	966.70	1,057.80	-12.57	26200	Downward Expansion	-65	58
2025-06-13	984.88	1,060.20	-9.91	14800	Downward Expansion	-60	56
2025-06-06	982.97	1,061.75	-10.10	22700	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2025-05-30	987.76	1,066.91	-10.43	85300	Downward Expansion	-62	48
2025-05-23	1,012.64	1,072.43	-6.42	183500	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2025-05-16	1,011.68	1,075.49	-8.13	147600	Downward Expansion	-58	29
2025-05-09	1,062.41	1,080.77	-3.06	6600	Downward Expansion	-45	20
2025-05-02	1,043.27	1,083.74	-3.19	1500	Downward Expansion	-50	27
2025-04-25	1,061.45	1,086.86	1.51	7600	Downward Expansion	-47	40
2025-04-18	1,070.07	1,091.15	5.22	8400	Downward Expansion	-48	40
2025-04-11	1,033.70	1,095.88	5.08	35800	Balance	-52	44
2025-04-04	999.24	1,101.41	1.11	31600	Balance	-62	37
2025-03-28	1,094.00	1,106.33	0.75	14300	Balance	-13	5
2025-03-21	1,098.85	1,109.02	-0.31	6700	Balance	-13	7
2025-03-14	1,077.57	1,109.85	-0.52	4400	Balance	-16	11
2025-03-07	1,109.95	1,109.11	2.95	2300	Balance	-9	7
2025-02-28	1,106.25	1,107.73	2.00	9900	Balance	-12	7
2025-02-21	1,118.27	1,108.37	-1.07	18700	Downward Expansion	-20	10
2025-02-14	1,049.82	1,110.62	-8.00	27100	Downward Expansion	-46	25
2025-02-07	1,103.47	1,116.45	-2.53	16300	Downward Expansion	-18	10
2025-01-31	1,083.12	1,119.69	-6.28	5400	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2025-01-24	1,082.20	1,123.30	-7.49	5900	Downward Expansion	-28	19
2025-01-17	1,084.97	1,127.12	-4.06	13500	Downward Expansion	-27	22
2025-01-10	1,128.45	1,130.11	-2.33	9700	Downward Expansion	-20	20
2025-01-03	1,096.07	1,131.28	-7.11	1600	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2024-12-27	1,087.75	1,133.47	-9.15	59000	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2024-12-20	1,063.70	1,135.57	-7.97	32400	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2024-12-13	1,037.80	1,138.37	-12.33	17200	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2024-12-06	1,050.75	1,142.20	-10.98	41600	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2024-11-29	1,044.27	1,145.71	-10.04	18600	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2024-11-22	1,038.72	1,148.67	-11.09	26900	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2024-11-15	1,031.33	1,151.48	-12.98	38100	Balance	-72	60
2024-11-08	1,137.69	1,155.58	-6.54	4900	Balance	-45	28
2024-11-01	1,153.42	1,155.79	-2.03	8800	Balance	-6	8
2024-10-25	1,104.40	1,155.61	-6.02	11600	Balance	-15	13
2024-10-18	1,170.07	1,158.72	-3.45	11400	Balance	30	12
2024-10-11	1,151.57	1,157.82	-6.75	8700	Balance	36	16
2024-10-04	1,136.77	1,156.58	-5.85	14900	Balance	38	22
2024-09-27	1,190.42	1,155.98	-4.69	16200	Balance	48	30
2024-09-20	1,211.69	1,153.24	1.94	20200	Balance	46	31
2024-09-13	1,199.67	1,150.08	3.73	25100	Balance	23	17
2024-09-06	1,146.94	1,147.24	-0.57	26800	Balance	-18	13
2024-08-30	1,174.69	1,145.11	-4.49	32900	Rotation Down	-6	21
2024-08-23	1,123.82	1,144.50	-8.38	139100	Rotation Down	-27	33
2024-08-16	1,055.37	1,146.54	-13.78	32000	Balance	-34	37
2024-08-09	1,068.32	1,149.67	-5.73	103600	Balance	-28	22
2024-08-02	1,125.67	1,153.99	-3.57	24700	Upward Expansion	21	14
2024-07-26	1,185.79	1,155.52	-4.08	16600	Upward Expansion	58	52
2024-07-19	1,224.64	1,154.40	-7.78	19300	Upward Expansion	73	69
2024-07-12	1,200.59	1,151.11	-12.91	14700	Upward Expansion	65	61
2024-07-05	1,191.34	1,151.73	-13.94	28300	Balance	62	57
2024-06-28	1,196.89	1,151.46	-11.60	23900	Balance	39	44
2024-06-21	1,174.69	1,149.73	-11.92	25800	Balance	29	29
2024-06-14	1,163.59	1,149.96	-13.86	11800	Balance	25	20
2024-06-07	1,161.74	1,149.66	-14.28	22800	Balance	13	14
2024-05-31	1,150.64	1,149.04	-15.25	11100	Balance	7	9
2024-05-24	1,147.87	1,146.15	-16.32	24100	Balance	-5	6
2024-05-17	1,152.49	1,142.97	-16.79	34300	Balance	3	3
2024-05-10	1,156.19	1,140.78	-15.84	37100	Balance	4	3
2024-05-03	1,133.07	1,137.59	-18.21	23000	Balance	-5	5
2024-04-26	1,122.90	1,136.01	-19.01	21300	Balance	21	8
2024-04-19	1,154.34	1,138.53	-15.53	18800	Balance	35	22
2024-04-12	1,144.17	1,140.72	-22.18	23300	Balance	7	13
2024-04-05	1,147.87	1,144.03	-21.68	12500	Balance	4	11
2024-03-29	1,197.82	1,147.13	-21.84	30800	Balance	19	14
2024-03-22	1,143.03	1,148.86	-27.15	16200	Balance	-36	19
2024-03-15	1,114.34	1,151.76	-25.79	13900	Balance	-52	29
2024-03-08	1,118.83	1,154.51	-28.06	21500	Balance	-52	39
2024-03-01	1,108.07	1,158.69	-29.88	48500	Balance	-55	51
2024-02-23	1,117.03	1,172.82	-28.62	47000	Balance	-53	44
2024-02-16	1,114.34	1,188.60	-28.41	46100	Balance	-51	35
2024-02-09	1,082.97	1,202.23	-28.16	73700	Balance	-52	30
2024-02-02	1,156.48	1,218.28	-22.53	16400	Balance	-15	7
2024-01-26	1,185.17	1,232.02	-20.77	26300	Balance	-11	8
2024-01-19	1,149.31	1,245.95	-24.57	37400	Balance	-28	15
2024-01-12	1,197.72	1,255.03	-21.55	15900	Balance	-12	11
2024-01-05	1,171.72	1,262.41	-19.16	11000	Balance	-20	13
2023-12-29	1,152.00	1,269.02	-21.57	73400	Balance	-20	13
2023-12-22	1,126.00	1,274.04	-23.48	57200	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2023-12-15	1,219.23	1,278.52	-17.47	50700	Downward Expansion	-23	22
2023-12-08	1,183.37	1,280.73	-19.01	33900	Downward Expansion	-34	26
2023-12-01	1,144.82	1,285.87	-24.98	28900	Downward Expansion	-39	29
2023-11-24	1,181.58	1,292.60	-23.96	20900	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2023-11-17	1,154.69	1,297.44	-26.39	32800	Downward Expansion	-53	51
2023-11-10	1,143.03	1,305.18	-25.67	27600	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2023-11-03	1,064.14	1,313.60	-30.20	14200	Downward Expansion	-68	82
2023-10-27	1,052.49	1,323.20	-29.90	24500	Downward Expansion	-74	86
2023-10-20	1,086.55	1,335.63	-29.36	26500	Downward Expansion	-70	82
2023-10-13	1,060.55	1,344.94	-34.37	25600	Downward Expansion	-79	82
2023-10-06	1,085.66	1,354.33	-31.05	75300	Downward Expansion	-80	67

Price vs TrendBelow-0.9%

Trend directionFalling-3.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-18.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+11.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-18.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+22.1%

Price momentumNegative-6.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.72×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-1 / ±100

-8.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

15 /100

-14.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

3970 Directional State ↗ 3970 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance49

Rotation Up34

Upward Expansion32

Deceleration40

Rotation Down20

Downward Expansion47

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 33%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 3%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 60%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	-4.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-08-14	Established	+0.7%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-05-08	New	-1.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2026-04-17	Extended	-14.5%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-04-11	Developing	-6.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-02-21	Established	+7.7%
Balance	2024-09-06	2024-11-15	Developing	-10.1%
Rotation Down	2024-08-23	2024-08-30	New	+4.5%
Balance	2024-08-09	2024-08-16	New	-1.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-12	2024-08-02	New	-6.2%
Balance	2023-12-29	2024-07-05	Extended	+3.4%
Downward Expansion	2023-09-15	2023-12-22	Established	-9.4%
Rotation Down	2023-09-01	2023-09-08	New	-0.7%
Rotation Up	2023-06-30	2023-08-25	Developing	-23.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing78

Stage 2 · Advancing14

Stage 3 · Distribution25

Stage 4 · Declining86

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 18/100
Current Relative Strength: -18.34
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -6.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -31.2%
Technology regime cohort: 2th percentile82 in cohort

Test 3970 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.77×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.72×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 3970 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 836.53falling

Slow Activity JPY 823.95falling

Trend Reference JPY 839.30-0.9% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 1,021.38-18.5% close margin

Structural low JPY 738.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +2.9%

Annualized volatility +21.3%

From structural high -13.9%

From structural low +12.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	-1.2%-22.7% to +5.0%	+16.7%	+16.7%	-1.4%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-27.5%-45.4% to -25.2%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-23.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-38.3%-40.8% to -28.1%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-31.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-35.7%-46.1% to -25.3%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-44.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

3970 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map