Weekly structural research · JPX · Consumer Cyclical

3091 Stage Analysis

BRONCO BILLY Co.,LTD.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close JPY 2,866.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 72−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 65/100directional strength

Maturity 76/100lifecycle context

Confidence 88/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +49.8%JPY 1,913.18 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	2,866.00	2,377.20	12.03	388800	Upward Expansion	72	65
2026-09-25	2,799.00	2,352.14	12.70	126800	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-09-18	2,796.00	2,328.65	14.82	275000	Upward Expansion	67	67
2026-09-11	2,805.00	2,300.71	16.95	304600	Upward Expansion	69	79
2026-09-04	2,849.00	2,272.80	16.92	398000	Upward Expansion	81	84
2026-08-28	2,840.00	2,242.18	14.03	65700	Upward Expansion	87	87
2026-08-21	2,752.00	2,210.94	11.09	59900	Upward Expansion	85	91
2026-08-14	2,619.00	2,183.64	1.41	87800	Upward Expansion	74	90
2026-08-07	2,569.00	2,161.26	3.88	86300	Upward Expansion	71	89
2026-07-31	2,694.00	2,139.56	10.66	177200	Upward Expansion	94	97
2026-07-24	2,540.00	2,112.45	3.55	371500	Upward Expansion	92	91
2026-07-17	2,403.00	2,093.04	-1.60	144900	Upward Expansion	82	74
2026-07-10	2,249.00	2,077.62	-14.07	82400	Upward Expansion	62	66
2026-07-03	2,206.00	2,067.17	-17.61	703500	Upward Expansion	55	62
2026-06-26	2,226.00	2,057.98	-16.92	710200	Upward Expansion	61	59
2026-06-19	2,295.56	2,049.53	-17.13	493400	Deceleration	70	49
2026-06-12	2,161.41	2,037.45	-16.46	405000	Deceleration	42	21
2026-06-05	2,044.64	2,029.25	-22.24	712000	Deceleration	12	7
2026-05-29	2,094.33	2,022.97	-20.72	823600	Deceleration	31	14
2026-05-22	2,136.56	2,014.95	-15.97	672400	Deceleration	34	20
2026-05-15	2,084.39	2,006.35	-15.99	497000	Deceleration	25	24
2026-05-08	2,064.52	1,999.57	-19.03	205200	Deceleration	30	24
2026-05-01	2,057.06	1,992.30	-15.57	348800	Upward Expansion	38	21
2026-04-24	2,044.64	1,985.52	-16.88	1007800	Upward Expansion	47	35
2026-04-17	2,176.31	1,983.53	-10.29	211400	Upward Expansion	65	65
2026-04-10	2,208.61	1,976.90	-7.22	286400	Upward Expansion	66	76
2026-04-03	2,230.97	1,969.03	-0.33	350400	Upward Expansion	77	85
2026-03-27	2,278.17	1,959.67	0.84	405600	Upward Expansion	91	90
2026-03-20	2,106.75	1,946.27	-7.13	189600	Upward Expansion	70	82
2026-03-13	2,119.17	1,939.48	-7.78	436600	Upward Expansion	78	83
2026-03-06	2,114.20	1,932.37	-11.37	523200	Upward Expansion	84	83
2026-02-27	2,094.33	1,925.91	-17.42	517400	Upward Expansion	85	75
2026-02-20	1,957.69	1,923.01	-20.44	282000	Upward Expansion	54	33
2026-02-13	1,967.62	1,919.87	-20.55	291000	Upward Expansion	57	26
2026-02-06	1,930.36	1,910.88	-18.59	292400	Upward Expansion	33	15
2026-01-30	1,903.03	1,904.78	-18.68	452200	Upward Expansion	24	11
2026-01-23	1,932.84	1,899.51	-18.56	883400	Upward Expansion	33	15
2026-01-16	1,947.75	1,895.47	-18.34	342200	Upward Expansion	39	17
2026-01-09	1,917.94	1,892.37	-16.79	411600	Upward Expansion	30	14
2026-01-02	1,880.67	1,889.45	-16.05	499200	Upward Expansion	22	14
2025-12-26	1,957.69	1,887.43	-13.61	458600	Upward Expansion	56	37
2025-12-19	1,940.36	1,883.02	-12.48	273200	Upward Expansion	53	49
2025-12-12	1,935.41	1,876.88	-15.27	260800	Upward Expansion	52	52
2025-12-05	1,930.46	1,871.73	-15.30	312800	Upward Expansion	41	42
2025-11-28	1,972.54	1,866.82	-13.47	231800	Balance	54	40
2025-11-21	1,932.94	1,859.78	-12.75	313800	Balance	40	19
2025-11-14	1,915.61	1,854.13	-16.81	633400	Balance	20	12
2025-11-07	1,856.21	1,853.58	-19.52	589800	Balance	3	13
2025-10-31	1,853.74	1,853.37	-23.24	534400	Balance	4	17
2025-10-24	1,878.49	1,850.21	-17.75	812600	Upward Expansion	22	23
2025-10-17	1,880.96	1,851.64	-14.99	285000	Upward Expansion	28	19
2025-10-10	1,846.31	1,851.34	-17.74	348400	Upward Expansion	28	15
2025-10-03	1,853.74	1,850.64	-13.54	403000	Upward Expansion	49	34
2025-09-26	1,984.91	1,848.79	-6.90	244600	Upward Expansion	66	63
2025-09-19	1,977.49	1,840.18	-6.73	187400	Upward Expansion	64	45
2025-09-12	1,972.54	1,831.56	-6.54	271800	Upward Expansion	66	43
2025-09-05	1,950.26	1,825.18	-4.02	335600	Upward Expansion	65	40
2025-08-29	1,876.01	1,818.62	-7.17	342200	Upward Expansion	56	51
2025-08-22	1,903.24	1,815.78	-5.69	519400	Upward Expansion	59	69
2025-08-15	1,905.71	1,810.63	-7.22	450800	Upward Expansion	57	62
2025-08-08	1,920.56	1,803.43	-3.03	537400	Upward Expansion	61	62
2025-08-01	2,007.19	1,796.30	3.85	1277200	Upward Expansion	73	56
2025-07-25	1,863.64	1,789.42	-4.97	2091600	Balance	1	15
2025-07-18	1,697.82	1,788.14	-9.86	516800	Balance	-42	52
2025-07-11	1,747.32	1,792.27	-6.67	338800	Balance	-17	24
2025-07-04	1,744.84	1,798.11	-7.40	593200	Balance	6	4
2025-06-27	1,811.67	1,804.77	-4.72	915600	Balance	37	28
2025-06-20	1,854.85	1,807.73	1.91	462800	Balance	16	17
2025-06-13	1,830.18	1,806.38	2.05	317200	Balance	7	7
2025-06-06	1,820.32	1,805.61	1.68	276800	Balance	-17	7
2025-05-30	1,825.25	1,807.22	1.24	433600	Balance	-29	15
2025-05-23	1,756.19	1,807.76	-0.63	752600	Balance	-53	33
2025-05-16	1,780.85	1,809.04	-0.97	852400	Balance	-37	26
2025-05-09	1,783.32	1,812.70	-0.32	584000	Balance	-17	13
2025-05-02	1,761.12	1,815.45	0.24	499000	Balance	-19	10
2025-04-25	1,763.58	1,819.85	3.45	1259600	Balance	-14	9
2025-04-18	1,899.24	1,823.19	14.55	276600	Balance	28	33
2025-04-11	1,849.91	1,820.27	15.55	560000	Balance	18	23
2025-04-04	1,758.65	1,817.94	9.65	448200	Balance	3	19
2025-03-28	1,921.44	1,818.90	9.35	445400	Balance	39	44
2025-03-21	1,872.11	1,813.53	5.23	207000	Balance	17	20
2025-03-14	1,825.25	1,809.06	4.55	239400	Downward Expansion	-23	13
2025-03-07	1,798.12	1,804.52	3.63	242000	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2025-02-28	1,726.59	1,799.08	-0.94	191200	Deceleration	-58	36
2025-02-21	1,719.19	1,796.27	-5.26	181800	Deceleration	-25	20
2025-02-14	1,780.85	1,795.27	-2.68	155000	Rotation Down	-13	14
2025-02-07	1,753.72	1,793.60	-3.08	308200	Rotation Down	-29	31
2025-01-31	1,790.72	1,797.01	-2.96	433400	Rotation Down	-23	50
2025-01-24	1,748.79	1,798.79	-6.14	1322200	Rotation Down	-27	56
2025-01-17	1,689.59	1,802.61	-5.92	447800	Rotation Down	-41	58
2025-01-10	1,706.85	1,809.03	-6.91	431600	Balance	-38	37
2025-01-03	1,800.58	1,816.76	-3.58	109000	Balance	16	14
2024-12-27	1,825.25	1,822.58	-3.26	1677000	Balance	44	26
2024-12-20	1,821.76	1,828.16	0.44	748600	Balance	48	49
2024-12-13	1,922.56	1,833.28	3.95	496600	Balance	38	54
2024-12-06	1,944.69	1,834.87	6.30	478000	Balance	44	40
2024-11-29	1,900.44	1,830.75	6.38	379600	Balance	34	20
2024-11-22	1,814.39	1,830.96	1.50	456000	Balance	4	6
2024-11-15	1,807.01	1,832.56	0.19	575800	Balance	-5	9
2024-11-08	1,868.47	1,835.40	1.40	415400	Rotation Up	13	15
2024-11-01	1,841.43	1,832.83	3.77	415600	Rotation Up	15	17
2024-10-25	1,794.72	1,829.37	1.57	432600	Rotation Up	18	32
2024-10-18	1,890.60	1,830.90	4.04	404000	Rotation Up	31	53
2024-10-11	1,866.02	1,828.41	1.15	274000	Rotation Up	23	32
2024-10-04	1,893.06	1,824.46	5.29	401000	Balance	30	33
2024-09-27	1,863.56	1,817.16	0.62	280600	Balance	-3	20
2024-09-20	1,811.93	1,808.95	3.31	200800	Deceleration	-22	24
2024-09-13	1,779.97	1,802.56	4.76	304400	Deceleration	-33	26
2024-09-06	1,787.34	1,795.51	5.93	358400	Deceleration	-12	13
2024-08-30	1,760.30	1,790.34	-1.66	312800	Rotation Down	-30	32
2024-08-23	1,738.17	1,788.11	-2.21	226000	Rotation Down	-36	56
2024-08-16	1,689.00	1,785.23	-4.24	189600	Rotation Down	-38	69
2024-08-09	1,634.92	1,786.36	0.72	869800	Rotation Down	-38	68
2024-08-02	1,642.29	1,785.05	-1.22	540400	Rotation Down	-42	64
2024-07-26	1,689.00	1,782.18	-3.06	899200	Deceleration	-37	44
2024-07-19	1,730.80	1,777.92	-6.53	2105000	Deceleration	-11	22
2024-07-12	1,856.18	1,771.94	-2.56	354800	Deceleration	28	22
2024-07-05	1,843.89	1,760.24	-2.43	363800	Deceleration	34	22
2024-06-28	1,863.56	1,749.92	2.10	1364000	Upward Expansion	42	27
2024-06-21	1,882.21	1,739.61	6.02	836800	Upward Expansion	58	42
2024-06-14	1,938.58	1,728.75	8.83	446200	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-06-07	1,975.34	1,715.11	11.60	335000	Upward Expansion	66	62
2024-05-31	1,992.50	1,699.76	13.51	466400	Upward Expansion	73	59
2024-05-24	1,975.34	1,683.27	12.41	577600	Upward Expansion	75	59
2024-05-17	1,970.44	1,667.03	12.04	804200	Upward Expansion	80	60
2024-05-10	1,820.94	1,649.84	5.34	550000	Upward Expansion	63	54
2024-05-03	1,906.72	1,637.40	10.34	321800	Upward Expansion	76	65
2024-04-26	1,862.61	1,622.68	8.82	774400	Upward Expansion	71	57
2024-04-19	1,892.02	1,609.79	13.27	1831400	Upward Expansion	82	73
2024-04-12	1,791.53	1,595.91	0.84	281400	Upward Expansion	66	74
2024-04-05	1,737.61	1,585.96	-0.81	333400	Upward Expansion	64	78
2024-03-29	1,840.55	1,578.70	1.50	295600	Upward Expansion	82	88
2024-03-22	1,816.04	1,567.68	-1.04	441400	Upward Expansion	82	78
2024-03-15	1,747.42	1,555.56	0.60	381000	Deceleration	75	48
2024-03-08	1,673.89	1,544.11	-5.96	416000	Deceleration	51	27
2024-03-01	1,617.53	1,536.30	-9.65	425400	Deceleration	38	20
2024-02-23	1,619.98	1,529.02	-7.73	236800	Upward Expansion	44	30
2024-02-16	1,568.51	1,521.78	-9.30	295800	Upward Expansion	58	42
2024-02-09	1,632.23	1,517.55	-1.63	302600	Upward Expansion	66	74
2024-02-02	1,693.50	1,508.69	4.23	375000	Upward Expansion	78	86
2024-01-26	1,651.84	1,496.43	3.00	425400	Upward Expansion	71	80
2024-01-19	1,722.91	1,486.83	6.93	1410800	Upward Expansion	92	86
2024-01-12	1,595.47	1,476.93	0.27	380000	Upward Expansion	73	55
2024-01-05	1,556.26	1,471.72	4.22	196800	Upward Expansion	60	39
2023-12-29	1,561.16	1,466.59	4.35	1427800	Upward Expansion	64	40
2023-12-22	1,551.53	1,461.34	4.68	364400	Upward Expansion	65	43
2023-12-15	1,505.11	1,455.38	2.20	409000	Upward Expansion	59	45
2023-12-08	1,534.43	1,450.91	6.37	498400	Upward Expansion	64	71
2023-12-01	1,553.98	1,445.18	4.29	326600	Upward Expansion	73	78
2023-11-24	1,556.42	1,438.13	4.00	214400	Upward Expansion	76	74
2023-11-17	1,529.54	1,430.47	2.44	247400	Upward Expansion	69	62
2023-11-10	1,514.88	1,422.58	4.70	535400	Upward Expansion	64	43
2023-11-03	1,497.78	1,414.01	5.70	499800	Deceleration	58	31
2023-10-27	1,488.01	1,404.61	8.41	468600	Deceleration	43	23
2023-10-20	1,454.78	1,395.87	5.27	1136800	Deceleration	36	19
2023-10-13	1,447.93	1,387.54	1.41	266400	Upward Expansion	40	24

Price vs TrendAbove+20.6%

Trend directionRising+12.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+49.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+28.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+12.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+29.6%

Price momentumPositive+28.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.86×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

72 / ±100

-9.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

65 /100

-19.5 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

3091 Directional State ↗ 3091 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance8

Rotation Up56

Upward Expansion85

Deceleration67

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 53%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 1%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-10-02	Established	+28.8%
Deceleration	2026-05-08	2026-06-19	Developing	+11.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-05-01	Established	+6.6%
Balance	2025-10-31	2025-11-28	Developing	+6.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-10-24	Established	-6.4%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-07-25	Established	-0.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-03-14	New	+1.5%
Deceleration	2025-02-21	2025-02-28	New	+0.4%
Rotation Down	2025-01-17	2025-02-14	Developing	+5.4%
Balance	2024-11-15	2025-01-10	Developing	-5.5%
Rotation Up	2024-10-11	2024-11-08	Developing	+0.1%
Balance	2024-09-27	2024-10-04	New	+1.6%
Deceleration	2024-09-06	2024-09-20	New	+1.4%
Rotation Down	2024-08-02	2024-08-30	Developing	+7.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution51

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: 12.03
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +28.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -0.1%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 74th percentile151 in cohort

Test 3091 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.10×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.86×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 3091 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 2,824.87rising

Slow Activity JPY 2,520.38rising

Trend Reference JPY 2,377.20+20.6% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 1,913.18+49.8% close margin

Structural low JPY 2,014.83shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.8%

Annualized volatility +24.3%

From structural high -2.2%

From structural low +58.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	36	+1.4%-10.3% to +14.1%	+61.1%	+61.1%	-0.7%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	+1.5%-10.2% to +25.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.7%	+41.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	+4.0%-11.9% to +41.6%	+62.5%	+62.5%	-2.5%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+24.1%-4.4% to +34.2%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+2.9%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

3091 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map