Weekly structural research · GER · Real Estate

GTY Stage Analysis

Gateway Real Estate AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 0.378Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: compressed and stable.

Direction 6−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 5/100directional strength

Maturity 50/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedstable separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -35.7%EUR 0.5877 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.378	0.3498	-3.35	37044	Balance	6	5
2026-09-25	0.341	0.3473	-14.05	3326	Balance	-6	4
2026-09-18	0.343	0.3469	-14.27	487	Balance	-3	2
2026-09-11	0.344	0.3467	-16.23	1114	Balance	25	9
2026-09-04	0.355	0.3468	-16.74	11736	Balance	32	14
2026-08-28	0.34	0.3485	-23.57	481	Balance	-2	2
2026-08-21	0.35	0.3513	-21.46	172	Balance	-6	5
2026-08-14	0.379	0.3533	-17.35	130	Balance	-15	8
2026-08-07	0.323	0.3533	-30.78	607	Balance	-45	18
2026-07-31	0.359	0.3555	-22.71	20034	Balance	-25	10
2026-07-24	0.343	0.3584	-25.93	19	Balance	-43	18
2026-07-17	0.341	0.3606	-26.73	541	Balance	-42	23
2026-07-10	0.34	0.3592	-29.43	1107	Balance	-44	26
2026-07-03	0.338	0.3615	-33.24	1741	Balance	-45	24
2026-06-26	0.329	0.3647	-33.33	132	Balance	-46	24
2026-06-19	0.338	0.3687	-33.42	92	Balance	-34	17
2026-06-12	0.368	0.3731	-27.84	485	Balance	-27	12
2026-06-05	0.337	0.3759	-35.26	119	Balance	-33	14
2026-05-29	0.34	0.3796	-36.25	2125	Balance	-32	13
2026-05-22	0.361	0.3858	-32.47	2400	Balance	-19	8
2026-05-15	0.361	0.39	-30.58	13240	Balance	-20	8
2026-05-08	0.367	0.3943	-31.33	1477	Balance	-29	11
2026-05-01	0.37	0.404	-31.48	11542	Downward Expansion	-30	13
2026-04-24	0.335	0.4087	-38.12	8257	Downward Expansion	-34	15
2026-04-17	0.372	0.4162	-33.43	4317	Downward Expansion	-32	14
2026-04-10	0.375	0.4247	-31.14	24747	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2026-04-03	0.371	0.4356	-30.81	46249	Downward Expansion	-47	23
2026-03-27	0.289	0.4491	-44.83	13015	Downward Expansion	-58	33
2026-03-20	0.299	0.4625	-44.16	43921	Downward Expansion	-58	32
2026-03-13	0.409	0.4757	-28.33	114302	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2026-03-06	0.302	0.4901	-47.58	8266	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2026-02-27	0.33	0.5064	-47.14	6266	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2026-02-20	0.335	0.5196	-46.86	429	Downward Expansion	-59	35
2026-02-13	0.348	0.5317	-44.78	6189	Downward Expansion	-58	31
2026-02-06	0.405	0.5513	-36.18	8614	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2026-01-30	0.425	0.5665	-33.60	3807	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2026-01-23	0.41	0.5777	-37.93	4876	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2026-01-16	0.378	0.5878	-44.82	14446	Downward Expansion	-57	35
2026-01-09	0.391	0.6012	-44.24	6455	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2026-01-02	0.445	0.6131	-36.26	5417	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2025-12-26	0.408	0.6185	-41.36	12278	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2025-12-19	0.30	0.6256	-56.90	13353	Downward Expansion	-77	58
2025-12-12	0.41	0.6365	-41.23	9000	Downward Expansion	-65	45
2025-12-05	0.434	0.645	-38.05	3058	Downward Expansion	-62	45
2025-11-28	0.449	0.6533	-36.08	1003	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2025-11-21	0.47	0.6583	-31.60	315	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-11-14	0.452	0.6601	-36.55	1790	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2025-11-07	0.448	0.6651	-36.85	11620	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2025-10-31	0.526	0.6703	-28.03	21102	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2025-10-24	0.485	0.6761	-35.19	6148	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2025-10-17	0.49	0.6866	-34.47	3129	Rotation Down	-73	67
2025-10-10	0.66	0.6969	-14.39	29242	Rotation Down	-29	49
2025-10-03	0.51	0.6916	-34.83	18845	Rotation Down	-38	57
2025-09-26	0.56	0.6951	-27.37	147	Balance	-33	39
2025-09-19	0.628	0.6966	-19.09	1762	Balance	-22	19
2025-09-12	0.70	0.6987	-11.08	8101	Balance	19	15
2025-09-05	0.778	0.7005	-1.65	7774	Balance	34	16
2025-08-29	0.69	0.7021	-14.34	20160	Balance	21	12
2025-08-22	0.696	0.7082	-14.70	0	Rotation Up	28	15
2025-08-15	0.84	0.7174	3.56	5339	Rotation Up	50	24
2025-08-08	0.79	0.7244	-0.98	6053	Rotation Up	27	21
2025-08-01	0.726	0.7327	-5.60	1313	Rotation Up	25	26
2025-07-25	0.70	0.7252	-11.41	30545	Rotation Up	27	41
2025-07-18	0.936	0.7155	18.61	4575	Rotation Up	57	70
2025-07-11	0.86	0.6989	10.60	2780	Rotation Up	41	61
2025-07-04	0.76	0.6927	0.88	21411	Rotation Up	23	46
2025-06-27	0.714	0.6907	-5.22	4005	Balance	10	32
2025-06-20	0.78	0.6891	7.55	4063	Balance	22	27
2025-06-13	0.748	0.6789	3.08	14792	Downward Expansion	-18	8
2025-06-06	0.608	0.6748	-18.59	16074	Downward Expansion	-38	19
2025-05-30	0.62	0.6802	-15.97	16	Downward Expansion	-36	16
2025-05-23	0.628	0.6859	-13.38	22	Downward Expansion	-36	15
2025-05-16	0.664	0.6949	-8.31	12612	Downward Expansion	-47	26
2025-05-09	0.682	0.7008	-4.19	17365	Downward Expansion	-50	40
2025-05-02	0.60	0.7057	-13.50	2000	Downward Expansion	-53	54
2025-04-25	0.525	0.7116	-21.32	0	Balance	-61	53
2025-04-18	0.60	0.7214	-5.60	365	Balance	-43	20
2025-04-11	0.605	0.7304	-1.10	1496	Balance	-30	16
2025-04-04	0.70	0.7386	11.92	8449	Balance	-21	8
2025-03-28	0.80	0.7409	16.72	22376	Balance	-35	16
2025-03-21	0.80	0.7256	14.03	74042	Balance	-40	25
2025-03-14	0.50	0.7105	-29.41	18934	Balance	-35	31
2025-03-07	0.615	0.706	-14.55	3943	Balance	-17	21
2025-02-28	0.605	0.6989	-15.31	9152	Balance	11	16
2025-02-21	0.69	0.6909	-3.43	0	Upward Expansion	26	13
2025-02-14	0.755	0.6812	3.47	536	Upward Expansion	50	30
2025-02-07	0.825	0.6658	14.97	2240	Upward Expansion	55	60
2025-01-31	0.875	0.6479	21.02	4975	Upward Expansion	56	49
2025-01-24	0.97	0.628	35.43	4275	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-01-17	1.05	0.6046	49.96	26622	Rotation Up	58	38
2025-01-10	1.04	0.5835	54.86	45593	Rotation Up	49	21
2025-01-03	0.50	0.5639	-23.84	2573	Rotation Down	-25	58
2024-12-27	0.41	0.5633	-38.26	189	Deceleration	-44	60
2024-12-20	0.438	0.5635	-34.46	8965	Deceleration	-20	28
2024-12-13	0.675	0.5585	-2.53	178	Deceleration	10	21
2024-12-06	0.70	0.5477	0.01	5637	Deceleration	9	24
2024-11-29	0.665	0.5346	-2.17	0	Deceleration	22	25
2024-11-22	0.474	0.5265	-30.22	6679	Deceleration	7	20
2024-11-15	0.625	0.5241	-9.23	8010	Upward Expansion	44	32
2024-11-08	0.77	0.5216	9.98	630	Upward Expansion	51	47
2024-11-01	0.79	0.5223	11.62	3040	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-10-25	0.90	0.5233	24.19	4128	Upward Expansion	76	66
2024-10-18	0.84	0.5195	13.49	1498	Upward Expansion	70	73
2024-10-11	0.83	0.518	11.59	144	Rotation Up	69	86
2024-10-04	0.775	0.5178	2.93	2967	Rotation Up	38	78
2024-09-27	0.82	0.5201	2.74	129	Rotation Up	41	79
2024-09-20	0.87	0.5203	9.16	3818	Rotation Up	55	81
2024-09-13	0.85	0.52	2.95	13053	Rotation Up	49	66
2024-09-06	0.77	0.5263	-7.54	14004	Rotation Up	22	26
2024-08-30	0.34	0.5318	-61.99	805	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2024-08-23	0.348	0.5493	-62.59	9	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2024-08-16	0.364	0.5639	-62.14	750	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2024-08-09	0.404	0.5716	-58.57	1622	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2024-08-02	0.364	0.5798	-64.47	1000	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2024-07-26	0.40	0.5886	-64.31	4119	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2024-07-19	0.292	0.5978	-74.73	500	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2024-07-12	0.288	0.6099	-77.01	2423	Downward Expansion	-66	58
2024-07-05	0.278	0.6303	-78.66	9121	Downward Expansion	-72	58
2024-06-28	0.268	0.6489	-80.20	0	Downward Expansion	-70	52
2024-06-21	0.416	0.6733	-70.59	3800	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2024-06-14	0.452	0.6916	-69.08	2000	Downward Expansion	-51	49
2024-06-07	0.482	0.7102	-69.22	1	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2024-05-31	0.416	0.7229	-74.33	1697	Downward Expansion	-68	85
2024-05-24	0.29	0.7424	-82.94	753	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2024-05-17	0.35	0.7661	-80.16	4476	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2024-05-10	0.306	0.7944	-83.30	4294	Downward Expansion	-90	96
2024-05-03	0.424	0.8319	-76.65	3168	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2024-04-26	0.402	0.8807	-78.73	6100	Downward Expansion	-92	88
2024-04-19	0.55	0.9313	-71.09	2600	Downward Expansion	-82	57
2024-04-12	0.79	0.9797	-60.13	0	Deceleration	-42	30
2024-04-05	0.82	1.01	-60.28	50	Deceleration	-39	30
2024-03-29	0.785	1.06	-63.67	3180	Deceleration	-46	35
2024-03-22	0.795	1.11	-63.62	1006	Deceleration	-46	37
2024-03-15	0.825	1.17	-62.69	0	Deceleration	-37	31
2024-03-08	0.845	1.22	-62.48	3935	Deceleration	-23	17
2024-03-01	0.825	1.28	-64.09	2161	Downward Expansion	-21	24
2024-02-23	0.86	1.35	-62.85	2100	Downward Expansion	-30	33
2024-02-16	1.04	1.41	-55.35	1291	Downward Expansion	-35	38
2024-02-09	0.935	1.47	-60.25	2750	Downward Expansion	-49	48
2024-02-02	0.865	1.55	-64.00	2120	Downward Expansion	-56	60
2024-01-26	0.785	1.63	-68.13	7815	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2024-01-19	0.595	1.72	-75.83	47	Downward Expansion	-76	87
2024-01-12	0.65	1.80	-74.49	663	Downward Expansion	-73	82
2024-01-05	0.63	1.88	-75.71	54	Downward Expansion	-77	71
2023-12-29	0.675	1.96	-74.97	3716	Downward Expansion	-78	75
2023-12-22	0.655	2.04	-76.36	3079	Downward Expansion	-84	73
2023-12-15	0.90	2.12	-68.40	21638	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2023-12-08	0.835	2.20	-71.27	14579	Downward Expansion	-76	70
2023-12-01	1.00	2.27	-65.52	656	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2023-11-24	0.965	2.34	-66.53	4234	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2023-11-17	1.01	2.40	-65.34	1743	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2023-11-10	0.865	2.48	-69.56	330	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2023-11-03	1.00	2.55	-65.25	10031	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2023-10-27	1.00	2.63	-64.77	8932	Downward Expansion	-93	97
2023-10-20	1.20	2.71	-59.13	229	Downward Expansion	-93	95
2023-10-13	1.43	2.77	-53.82	18271	Downward Expansion	-91	82

Price vs TrendAbove+8.1%

Trend directionFalling-2.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-35.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+19.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+29.9%

Price momentumPositive+1.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led11.41×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

6 / ±100

-26.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

5 /100

-9.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

GTY Directional State ↗ GTY Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance64

Rotation Up33

Upward Expansion36

Deceleration35

Rotation Down35

Downward Expansion22

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 6%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 49%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-10-02	Established	+3.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-24	2026-05-01	Extended	-23.7%
Rotation Down	2025-10-03	2025-10-17	New	-3.9%
Balance	2025-08-29	2025-09-26	Developing	-18.8%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-08-22	Developing	-8.4%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-06-27	New	-8.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-06-13	Developing	+24.7%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-04-25	Developing	-13.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-24	2025-02-21	Developing	-28.9%
Rotation Up	2025-01-10	2025-01-17	New	+1.0%
Rotation Down	2025-01-03	2025-01-03	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2024-11-22	2024-12-27	Developing	-13.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-18	2024-11-15	Developing	-25.6%
Rotation Up	2024-09-06	2024-10-11	Developing	+7.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing76

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution14

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 42/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.35
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +1.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -7.0%
Real Estate regime cohort: 50th percentile4 in cohort

Test GTY trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume8.83×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume11.41×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+62.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore GTY Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 0.3551rising

Slow Activity EUR 0.3493rising

Trend Reference EUR 0.3498+8.1% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 0.5877-35.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 0.286shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +21.5%

Annualized volatility +45.0%

From structural high -56.9%

From structural low +64.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	-2.5%-34.4% to +32.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-6.4%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-19.5%-52.2% to +2.5%	+20.0%	+20.0%	-20.7%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	-52.2%-80.7% to +14.0%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-58.0%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-68.5%-91.5% to -45.5%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-83.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

GTY Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map