Weekly structural research · JPX · Industrials

1982 Stage Analysis

Hibiya Engineering, Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 3,280.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Re-acceleration watch: Fast Activity is turning upward after a positive-structure recompression.

Direction 76−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 71/100directional strength

Maturity 20/100lifecycle context

Confidence 75/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +66.9%JPY 1,965.07 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	3,280.00	2,986.34	4.59	170200	Balance	76	71
2026-09-18	3,220.00	2,983.97	4.81	337400	Balance	37	42
2026-09-11	3,075.00	2,980.98	1.68	563600	Balance	11	16
2026-09-04	2,992.00	2,987.74	-2.68	609200	Balance	-19	18
2026-08-28	2,976.00	2,972.86	-5.43	346400	Balance	-29	16
2026-08-21	2,933.00	2,952.45	-6.53	76300	Balance	-21	16
2026-08-14	2,980.00	2,938.72	-9.06	82900	Rotation Down	-22	29
2026-08-07	2,811.00	2,925.39	-10.42	224500	Rotation Down	-30	46
2026-07-31	2,785.00	2,913.51	-9.89	130000	Balance	-24	37
2026-07-24	2,886.00	2,898.89	-7.22	98500	Balance	8	16
2026-07-17	2,725.00	2,880.67	-11.84	111000	Balance	-5	9
2026-07-10	2,965.00	2,866.90	-10.41	82900	Upward Expansion	34	20
2026-07-03	3,090.00	2,842.69	-8.31	64900	Upward Expansion	51	27
2026-06-26	3,105.00	2,813.48	-7.37	45300	Upward Expansion	51	24
2026-06-19	3,080.00	2,788.61	-10.54	88800	Upward Expansion	41	21
2026-06-12	2,973.00	2,761.05	-6.93	99600	Upward Expansion	37	20
2026-06-05	2,960.00	2,733.04	-8.14	66200	Upward Expansion	51	31
2026-05-29	3,115.00	2,707.84	-2.96	539500	Upward Expansion	56	45
2026-05-22	2,995.00	2,678.38	-2.16	761200	Upward Expansion	53	40
2026-05-15	3,185.00	2,650.13	7.45	1204200	Upward Expansion	65	42
2026-05-08	3,105.00	2,613.42	2.90	238900	Deceleration	58	32
2026-05-01	3,010.00	2,578.55	5.24	476900	Deceleration	53	30
2026-04-24	2,837.00	2,549.07	-1.00	358500	Deceleration	37	23
2026-04-17	2,894.00	2,528.79	3.27	454600	Deceleration	39	26
2026-04-10	3,080.00	2,506.44	13.17	483000	Deceleration	49	31
2026-04-03	2,852.00	2,478.23	12.68	482800	Deceleration	39	25
2026-03-27	2,865.00	2,457.12	13.16	440400	Upward Expansion	45	35
2026-03-20	2,889.57	2,436.07	14.66	440000	Upward Expansion	61	52
2026-03-13	2,879.74	2,414.52	13.86	600800	Upward Expansion	65	65
2026-03-06	3,046.83	2,391.69	17.04	672800	Upward Expansion	67	88
2026-02-27	3,209.00	2,363.60	17.00	676000	Upward Expansion	84	94
2026-02-20	3,130.37	2,324.44	18.81	587600	Upward Expansion	89	94
2026-02-13	3,277.80	2,285.07	24.88	1365800	Upward Expansion	96	88
2026-02-06	2,545.57	2,237.78	2.45	367800	Upward Expansion	73	65
2026-01-30	2,363.75	2,213.36	-3.31	239800	Upward Expansion	63	66
2026-01-23	2,521.00	2,193.95	2.02	271400	Upward Expansion	72	77
2026-01-16	2,579.97	2,169.38	4.33	208200	Upward Expansion	84	80
2026-01-09	2,454.66	2,143.00	3.23	380600	Upward Expansion	74	64
2026-01-02	2,346.55	2,118.29	1.91	144200	Upward Expansion	62	42
2025-12-26	2,339.18	2,096.14	0.81	370000	Upward Expansion	62	39
2025-12-19	2,312.15	2,073.41	2.15	345600	Upward Expansion	61	41
2025-12-12	2,238.43	2,051.02	-3.73	270800	Upward Expansion	54	40
2025-12-05	2,213.86	2,031.50	-4.20	304000	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-11-28	2,358.83	2,015.95	2.36	201400	Upward Expansion	75	55
2025-11-21	2,253.18	1,994.76	0.97	321800	Deceleration	63	42
2025-11-14	2,132.78	1,972.23	-7.80	599200	Deceleration	50	34
2025-11-07	2,204.04	1,951.85	-4.75	314400	Deceleration	57	37
2025-10-31	2,231.06	1,929.09	-7.57	762200	Deceleration	52	28
2025-10-24	2,147.52	1,903.07	-5.43	215800	Deceleration	34	26
2025-10-17	2,083.64	1,883.74	-4.93	251000	Deceleration	38	26
2025-10-10	2,059.07	1,867.66	-7.10	342200	Upward Expansion	44	35
2025-10-03	2,125.41	1,853.03	0.67	256000	Upward Expansion	52	51
2025-09-26	2,228.61	1,836.76	6.62	152200	Upward Expansion	65	63
2025-09-19	2,223.75	1,814.73	7.43	185800	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-09-12	2,233.47	1,793.50	8.87	171400	Upward Expansion	69	67
2025-09-05	2,218.88	1,774.18	12.86	200600	Upward Expansion	68	85
2025-08-29	2,233.47	1,764.04	14.77	251800	Upward Expansion	75	91
2025-08-22	2,243.19	1,750.94	15.99	264600	Upward Expansion	84	94
2025-08-15	2,194.58	1,735.77	12.04	429200	Upward Expansion	87	95
2025-08-08	2,204.30	1,719.34	17.15	799800	Upward Expansion	94	96
2025-08-01	2,034.18	1,704.82	11.41	314400	Upward Expansion	88	89
2025-07-25	1,949.12	1,697.81	5.51	446800	Rotation Up	82	78
2025-07-18	1,859.20	1,694.67	5.16	232000	Rotation Up	46	60
2025-07-11	1,813.02	1,693.97	3.61	270600	Rotation Up	42	58
2025-07-04	1,781.43	1,693.61	1.56	295600	Rotation Up	35	49
2025-06-27	1,783.86	1,697.33	1.12	321000	Rotation Up	27	41
2025-06-20	1,788.72	1,700.02	6.09	566600	Balance	29	32
2025-06-13	1,713.38	1,701.19	3.29	394000	Balance	-1	7
2025-06-06	1,681.78	1,705.75	1.75	324200	Balance	-7	8
2025-05-30	1,657.48	1,709.45	-0.15	243000	Balance	-10	15
2025-05-23	1,640.47	1,708.85	1.19	274000	Balance	-8	19
2025-05-16	1,652.62	1,708.98	0.65	673800	Downward Expansion	-20	23
2025-05-09	1,747.40	1,712.77	7.43	301800	Downward Expansion	-12	16
2025-05-02	1,723.10	1,713.72	8.33	325000	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2025-04-25	1,577.28	1,713.40	2.75	173000	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-04-18	1,521.38	1,716.60	2.23	181600	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2025-04-11	1,521.38	1,719.86	6.14	268400	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2025-04-04	1,450.42	1,722.11	1.06	266400	Downward Expansion	-78	68
2025-03-28	1,567.56	1,726.95	-0.21	269400	Rotation Down	-65	58
2025-03-21	1,601.21	1,729.23	0.76	270000	Rotation Down	-35	55
2025-03-14	1,620.36	1,729.21	4.01	160600	Rotation Down	-31	58
2025-03-07	1,637.12	1,728.78	5.97	279000	Rotation Down	-29	51
2025-02-28	1,567.71	1,721.21	1.30	246000	Balance	-31	47
2025-02-21	1,586.85	1,716.55	-1.20	436600	Balance	-11	16
2025-02-14	1,653.87	1,712.20	2.46	548600	Balance	1	4
2025-02-07	1,914.76	1,707.27	20.37	283200	Upward Expansion	60	30
2025-01-31	1,840.56	1,694.82	14.38	190800	Upward Expansion	37	19
2025-01-24	1,787.90	1,685.56	10.74	211000	Upward Expansion	27	18
2025-01-17	1,701.74	1,682.31	10.09	132400	Upward Expansion	22	14
2025-01-10	1,768.76	1,681.69	12.86	246000	Upward Expansion	39	24
2025-01-03	1,823.80	1,677.90	14.94	26000	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-12-27	1,854.92	1,669.82	16.37	243200	Upward Expansion	58	39
2024-12-20	1,838.17	1,657.40	20.71	381000	Upward Expansion	58	42
2024-12-13	1,802.26	1,644.12	16.73	363400	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-12-06	1,893.21	1,632.59	24.59	424000	Upward Expansion	70	72
2024-11-29	1,864.49	1,616.61	26.43	257000	Upward Expansion	69	72
2024-11-22	1,823.80	1,601.14	24.42	505600	Upward Expansion	67	58
2024-11-15	1,850.13	1,586.71	25.93	563600	Upward Expansion	74	46
2024-11-08	1,792.69	1,568.15	20.39	323800	Upward Expansion	69	40
2024-11-01	1,639.51	1,554.93	15.08	529400	Upward Expansion	54	34
2024-10-25	1,644.30	1,544.81	16.42	382400	Upward Expansion	59	51
2024-10-18	1,766.36	1,536.90	22.20	204800	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-10-11	1,775.94	1,526.50	21.70	331800	Upward Expansion	72	65
2024-10-04	1,713.71	1,513.00	21.18	255600	Upward Expansion	67	51
2024-09-27	1,673.02	1,498.70	15.35	259600	Upward Expansion	63	45
2024-09-20	1,619.41	1,482.88	18.37	214000	Upward Expansion	55	48
2024-09-13	1,588.68	1,469.58	20.37	259200	Upward Expansion	51	49
2024-09-06	1,595.77	1,456.21	22.28	211000	Deceleration	50	44
2024-08-30	1,635.96	1,441.38	18.78	141000	Deceleration	56	34
2024-08-23	1,600.50	1,428.41	17.74	289200	Deceleration	41	18
2024-08-16	1,607.59	1,414.17	19.85	288800	Deceleration	28	19
2024-08-09	1,409.95	1,400.47	14.90	407800	Deceleration	9	20
2024-08-02	1,427.92	1,393.70	14.07	350000	Deceleration	14	23
2024-07-26	1,456.29	1,385.19	11.45	380000	Deceleration	31	26
2024-07-19	1,505.94	1,375.01	8.83	243800	Upward Expansion	46	35
2024-07-12	1,541.40	1,364.02	8.73	313200	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-07-05	1,562.68	1,348.93	11.42	365800	Upward Expansion	66	74
2024-06-28	1,690.34	1,333.59	25.12	564000	Upward Expansion	77	89
2024-06-21	1,683.25	1,313.78	28.66	752200	Upward Expansion	84	91
2024-06-14	1,654.88	1,295.30	26.73	435400	Upward Expansion	88	88
2024-06-07	1,581.59	1,275.01	22.37	398800	Upward Expansion	83	75
2024-05-31	1,482.30	1,256.92	15.98	253600	Upward Expansion	71	62
2024-05-24	1,439.74	1,243.15	12.66	158800	Upward Expansion	64	57
2024-05-17	1,456.29	1,230.63	13.75	195000	Upward Expansion	72	54
2024-05-10	1,413.74	1,216.68	12.22	89400	Upward Expansion	65	44
2024-05-03	1,400.50	1,204.20	11.19	109800	Upward Expansion	65	43
2024-04-26	1,391.04	1,193.26	11.34	298000	Upward Expansion	64	41
2024-04-19	1,293.17	1,183.20	5.98	236200	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-04-12	1,396.24	1,176.10	7.28	245400	Upward Expansion	68	72
2024-04-05	1,335.72	1,165.28	4.06	247400	Upward Expansion	65	81
2024-03-29	1,407.12	1,155.89	5.83	221400	Upward Expansion	75	89
2024-03-22	1,454.34	1,143.55	7.97	308400	Upward Expansion	89	91
2024-03-15	1,370.90	1,128.44	7.63	376000	Upward Expansion	83	77
2024-03-08	1,284.67	1,115.91	-1.55	236200	Upward Expansion	75	49
2024-03-01	1,198.43	1,106.81	-8.77	234000	Upward Expansion	51	32
2024-02-23	1,220.34	1,099.96	-5.37	137200	Upward Expansion	64	43
2024-02-16	1,187.71	1,092.94	-6.56	185600	Upward Expansion	55	37
2024-02-09	1,150.88	1,087.01	-5.65	221200	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-02-02	1,246.91	1,081.44	4.29	221800	Upward Expansion	79	67
2024-01-26	1,173.26	1,072.62	-0.57	180400	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-01-19	1,196.57	1,067.29	0.83	117400	Upward Expansion	68	73
2024-01-12	1,206.82	1,060.70	2.86	164000	Upward Expansion	78	80
2024-01-05	1,172.79	1,054.72	6.64	81600	Upward Expansion	72	71
2023-12-29	1,150.88	1,048.19	4.53	215200	Upward Expansion	68	63
2023-12-22	1,176.06	1,042.71	7.87	379200	Upward Expansion	77	64
2023-12-15	1,088.89	1,038.74	0.63	209800	Upward Expansion	55	55
2023-12-08	1,102.41	1,038.19	4.11	211600	Upward Expansion	60	54
2023-12-01	1,095.88	1,036.93	0.22	272200	Upward Expansion	59	43
2023-11-24	1,128.98	1,035.72	2.78	372400	Deceleration	73	42
2023-11-17	1,046.00	1,032.44	-4.48	150800	Deceleration	35	17
2023-11-10	1,039.01	1,031.43	-2.12	208000	Deceleration	35	17
2023-11-03	1,069.31	1,029.80	2.80	604200	Deceleration	43	21
2023-10-27	1,064.18	1,026.41	5.61	282000	Deceleration	42	22
2023-10-20	1,037.61	1,023.92	2.28	222000	Upward Expansion	42	26
2023-10-13	1,039.48	1,020.03	-0.77	327400	Upward Expansion	58	45
2023-10-06	1,072.11	1,016.25	6.76	261600	Upward Expansion	63	69

Price vs TrendAbove+9.8%

Trend directionRising+3.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+66.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+4.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+12.0%

Price momentumPositive+14.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led5.23×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

76 / ±100

+105.3 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

71 /100

+55.2 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1982 Directional State ↗ 1982 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance32

Rotation Up78

Upward Expansion90

Deceleration43

Rotation Down8

Downward Expansion14

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 11%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 62%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 5%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	+11.8%
Rotation Down	2026-08-07	2026-08-14	New	+6.0%
Balance	2026-07-17	2026-07-31	New	+2.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-07-10	Developing	-6.9%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-05-08	Developing	+8.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-28	2026-03-27	Established	+21.5%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-21	Developing	+8.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-10-10	Developing	+1.2%
Rotation Up	2025-06-27	2025-07-25	Developing	+9.3%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-20	Developing	+9.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-05-16	Developing	+13.9%
Rotation Down	2025-03-07	2025-03-28	New	-4.2%
Balance	2025-02-14	2025-02-28	New	-5.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-13	2025-02-07	Established	+20.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing16

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution65

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: 4.59
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +14.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -9.9%
Industrials regime cohort: 95th percentile177 in cohort

Test 1982 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.60×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume5.23×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+62.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1982 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 3,164.33rising

Slow Activity JPY 3,002.60rising

Trend Reference JPY 2,986.34+9.8% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 1,965.07+66.9% close margin

Structural low JPY 2,675.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.2%

Annualized volatility +29.8%

From structural high -5.5%

From structural low +62.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+1.7%-4.6% to +9.8%	+73.3%	+73.3%	+2.2%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+4.0%-2.0% to +36.7%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+5.9%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+7.8%+0.8% to +32.7%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+8.1%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+21.5%+6.3% to +98.2%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+11.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1982 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map