Weekly structural research · HKG · Consumer Cyclical

0881 Stage Analysis

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close HKD 2.90Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -86−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 94/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 83/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -74.7%HKD 11.45 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	2.90	5.89	-64.17	69126150	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2026-09-18	3.16	6.14	-62.26	88171741	Downward Expansion	-85	93
2026-09-11	3.19	6.43	-62.90	49319654	Downward Expansion	-91	76
2026-09-04	3.62	6.73	-60.37	54199541	Downward Expansion	-87	73
2026-08-28	4.12	7.01	-55.95	22739000	Downward Expansion	-81	71
2026-08-21	4.59	7.26	-52.86	2525000	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2026-08-14	4.56	7.53	-52.51	3560720	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2026-08-07	4.44	7.80	-55.59	7554835	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2026-07-31	4.53	8.04	-55.86	7083812	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2026-07-24	4.23	8.28	-57.99	5238360	Downward Expansion	-85	77
2026-07-17	4.31	8.53	-57.30	9654990	Downward Expansion	-89	92
2026-07-10	5.06	8.76	-49.80	2592556	Downward Expansion	-71	89
2026-07-03	5.06	8.96	-48.67	10521400	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2026-06-26	4.85	9.19	-49.97	6902148	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2026-06-19	5.17	9.42	-50.12	40610973	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2026-06-12	5.79	9.62	-46.55	10668176	Downward Expansion	-79	89
2026-06-05	5.98	9.82	-45.98	7427845	Downward Expansion	-80	89
2026-05-29	6.16	10.01	-45.43	145745933	Downward Expansion	-81	85
2026-05-22	6.44	10.22	-44.46	40985580	Downward Expansion	-79	81
2026-05-15	6.72	10.44	-43.45	30506198	Downward Expansion	-78	84
2026-05-08	7.20	10.65	-40.94	38262248	Downward Expansion	-72	84
2026-05-01	7.10	10.89	-40.93	24740491	Downward Expansion	-79	88
2026-04-24	7.38	11.16	-39.63	68298567	Downward Expansion	-79	83
2026-04-17	7.53	11.38	-39.37	29186246	Downward Expansion	-80	83
2026-04-10	8.12	11.63	-34.51	13123478	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2026-04-03	8.50	11.88	-29.90	33875120	Downward Expansion	-72	87
2026-03-27	8.57	12.13	-29.47	74191204	Downward Expansion	-76	89
2026-03-20	7.84	12.38	-36.89	88289135	Downward Expansion	-92	94
2026-03-13	9.73	12.60	-22.99	66706029	Downward Expansion	-79	82
2026-03-06	9.82	12.76	-23.66	74646528	Downward Expansion	-82	74
2026-02-27	10.36	12.88	-22.60	63836380	Downward Expansion	-74	50
2026-02-20	11.89	12.97	-10.89	3020000	Downward Expansion	-36	24
2026-02-13	12.19	13.05	-9.36	22926195	Downward Expansion	-21	13
2026-02-06	11.93	13.05	-11.52	28250949	Downward Expansion	-31	20
2026-01-30	11.65	13.04	-16.74	27449366	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2026-01-23	12.92	13.05	-6.00	32792263	Downward Expansion	-22	20
2026-01-16	12.41	13.03	-10.42	27292894	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2026-01-09	11.77	12.99	-13.47	26529530	Downward Expansion	-46	37
2026-01-02	11.65	13.00	-15.16	14534590	Downward Expansion	-58	48
2025-12-26	11.71	13.00	-13.60	9627210	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2025-12-19	11.36	12.98	-16.46	26583966	Rotation Down	-64	67
2025-12-12	11.11	13.00	-19.98	21236778	Rotation Down	-45	65
2025-12-05	11.76	13.00	-16.63	21004230	Rotation Down	-36	60
2025-11-28	11.71	12.99	-17.18	26018460	Rotation Down	-28	59
2025-11-21	11.18	12.97	-19.75	41623911	Rotation Down	-40	64
2025-11-14	12.04	12.97	-19.08	31535409	Rotation Down	-29	54
2025-11-07	11.68	12.92	-21.59	35052446	Deceleration	-34	45
2025-10-31	12.28	12.89	-17.24	29769239	Deceleration	-9	24
2025-10-24	13.09	12.91	-12.83	28182996	Deceleration	14	17
2025-10-17	13.03	12.92	-10.20	43835893	Deceleration	22	18
2025-10-10	14.25	12.93	-5.76	39912371	Upward Expansion	40	22
2025-10-03	15.20	12.89	-2.80	37275845	Upward Expansion	49	32
2025-09-26	14.03	12.83	-7.01	47156831	Upward Expansion	59	43
2025-09-19	14.99	12.76	-2.33	45666904	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-09-12	15.66	12.66	2.89	60763708	Upward Expansion	67	73
2025-09-05	16.19	12.54	10.77	94482732	Upward Expansion	79	81
2025-08-29	16.07	12.43	11.95	184000061	Upward Expansion	85	81
2025-08-22	14.35	12.29	-0.50	78939304	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-08-15	14.59	12.21	1.74	77544225	Upward Expansion	76	75
2025-08-08	13.35	12.11	-5.18	51402682	Upward Expansion	62	63
2025-08-01	13.06	12.04	-6.10	83327576	Balance	49	53
2025-07-25	14.26	12.02	-1.36	65976541	Balance	40	47
2025-07-18	12.16	12.00	-14.37	40321119	Balance	-5	9
2025-07-11	11.58	12.06	-16.67	34485025	Balance	-19	9
2025-07-04	11.94	12.18	-13.79	17911939	Balance	-14	10
2025-06-27	12.34	12.28	-12.45	36650379	Downward Expansion	-18	11
2025-06-20	11.19	12.36	-18.36	26719423	Downward Expansion	-41	20
2025-06-13	12.08	12.52	-13.55	30273857	Downward Expansion	-30	15
2025-06-06	11.66	12.67	-16.53	24828140	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-05-30	11.21	12.77	-18.54	33437318	Downward Expansion	-43	24
2025-05-23	11.95	12.77	-14.90	30440077	Downward Expansion	-50	27
2025-05-16	11.15	12.74	-20.09	19070925	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2025-05-09	11.42	12.74	-17.14	21027809	Downward Expansion	-58	60
2025-05-02	11.26	12.78	-17.46	16548593	Downward Expansion	-57	64
2025-04-25	10.96	12.88	-18.40	24751599	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2025-04-18	10.75	12.91	-18.34	25513395	Balance	-62	54
2025-04-11	10.77	12.85	-16.86	75172040	Balance	-59	30
2025-04-04	12.74	12.78	-10.57	37333906	Balance	17	16
2025-03-28	13.50	12.65	-8.06	39843655	Deceleration	42	28
2025-03-21	13.16	12.48	-11.78	40055932	Deceleration	25	18
2025-03-14	13.23	12.32	-12.72	32807505	Deceleration	23	14
2025-03-07	13.23	12.19	-14.10	49848365	Deceleration	25	13
2025-02-28	12.00	12.08	-18.10	57077412	Deceleration	-6	9
2025-02-21	11.85	12.04	-21.56	47934618	Deceleration	7	12
2025-02-14	12.08	12.04	-17.69	48000315	Deceleration	0	11
2025-02-07	13.08	12.03	-5.22	35139679	Deceleration	2	19
2025-01-31	11.66	12.00	-12.13	4203748	Deceleration	-20	29
2025-01-24	11.98	11.95	-9.58	26100575	Deceleration	-17	28
2025-01-17	11.60	11.91	-10.73	36010245	Deceleration	-3	21
2025-01-10	11.34	11.88	-11.02	42477506	Deceleration	6	17
2025-01-03	12.46	11.88	-6.49	24643591	Deceleration	29	19
2024-12-27	13.65	11.88	0.07	8757467	Deceleration	40	27
2024-12-20	14.05	11.84	4.06	25004792	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-12-13	15.05	11.78	9.58	34783036	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-12-06	15.14	11.75	10.30	30332760	Upward Expansion	62	72
2024-11-29	14.50	11.69	7.53	41183557	Upward Expansion	63	76
2024-11-22	16.09	11.67	19.94	51103686	Rotation Up	75	78
2024-11-15	16.53	11.56	21.57	133510053	Rotation Up	56	56
2024-11-08	14.77	11.39	1.45	130443077	Rotation Up	40	28
2024-11-01	11.07	11.30	-23.62	26218743	Rotation Up	13	16
2024-10-25	11.04	11.34	-25.10	32876840	Rotation Up	20	31
2024-10-18	11.24	11.37	-25.36	38674405	Rotation Up	22	36
2024-10-11	12.59	11.39	-19.08	59565656	Rotation Up	28	38
2024-10-04	14.27	11.36	-15.09	59242467	Rotation Up	30	32
2024-09-27	11.87	11.27	-23.01	71528878	Downward Expansion	-20	18
2024-09-20	8.97	11.30	-35.10	35007147	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2024-09-13	8.72	11.43	-34.67	29001805	Downward Expansion	-65	82
2024-09-06	8.76	11.56	-35.58	24652652	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2024-08-30	8.47	11.68	-40.53	45190433	Downward Expansion	-76	86
2024-08-23	8.41	11.81	-40.64	38606452	Downward Expansion	-83	85
2024-08-16	9.08	11.94	-36.35	25410822	Downward Expansion	-77	67
2024-08-09	10.18	12.06	-28.10	14725155	Downward Expansion	-65	35
2024-08-02	10.70	12.20	-24.68	26385385	Downward Expansion	-49	21
2024-07-26	11.89	12.33	-17.64	24460926	Downward Expansion	-39	21
2024-07-19	11.83	12.49	-20.83	30322826	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2024-07-12	12.04	12.57	-24.31	34261301	Downward Expansion	-59	58
2024-07-05	10.13	12.69	-35.44	27074011	Downward Expansion	-75	75
2024-06-28	10.81	12.86	-32.04	41806943	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2024-06-21	10.75	13.02	-34.67	24167491	Balance	-68	54
2024-06-14	11.39	13.21	-31.55	22584238	Balance	-50	32
2024-06-07	12.31	13.40	-28.81	29742074	Balance	-32	14
2024-05-31	12.52	13.54	-27.36	33124308	Balance	-14	11
2024-05-24	12.28	13.71	-31.81	25949051	Balance	-14	19
2024-05-17	14.17	13.87	-26.08	24796167	Balance	7	22
2024-05-10	13.30	13.94	-29.43	20658773	Balance	-8	12
2024-05-03	13.78	14.07	-26.08	27663361	Downward Expansion	-17	12
2024-04-26	12.84	14.22	-28.84	29968020	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2024-04-19	11.51	14.44	-31.50	24075773	Downward Expansion	-61	39
2024-04-12	12.13	14.69	-30.92	40787890	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2024-04-05	12.08	14.96	-32.22	17045726	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2024-03-29	12.01	15.24	-32.89	17736528	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-03-22	11.90	15.55	-34.36	16616863	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2024-03-15	11.82	15.85	-36.67	23751926	Downward Expansion	-63	48
2024-03-08	11.51	16.10	-37.70	27239964	Downward Expansion	-69	49
2024-03-01	12.74	16.40	-32.97	33046743	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-02-23	12.97	16.73	-33.27	24548904	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2024-02-16	12.47	17.10	-35.31	10829237	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2024-02-09	12.29	17.50	-34.89	20314313	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2024-02-02	12.38	17.91	-34.55	33823203	Downward Expansion	-72	77
2024-01-26	12.31	18.37	-37.64	28647494	Downward Expansion	-79	73
2024-01-19	12.81	18.84	-33.40	22737640	Downward Expansion	-78	56
2024-01-12	14.44	19.27	-30.24	20632438	Downward Expansion	-68	51
2024-01-05	14.53	19.70	-32.05	16036035	Downward Expansion	-70	51
2023-12-29	16.54	20.06	-26.05	11947973	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2023-12-22	14.35	20.39	-33.83	13632093	Downward Expansion	-76	67
2023-12-15	15.66	20.75	-30.66	16711571	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2023-12-08	15.11	21.16	-32.04	13667612	Downward Expansion	-74	61
2023-12-01	15.55	21.62	-32.90	17763032	Downward Expansion	-73	58
2023-11-24	16.62	22.07	-32.24	15477105	Downward Expansion	-65	54
2023-11-17	17.06	22.47	-30.76	14222851	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2023-11-10	16.56	22.87	-32.54	15023597	Downward Expansion	-71	65
2023-11-03	17.48	23.36	-31.42	11316745	Downward Expansion	-66	75
2023-10-27	17.02	23.84	-32.96	10141621	Downward Expansion	-70	82
2023-10-20	16.31	24.37	-35.59	11420778	Downward Expansion	-82	86
2023-10-13	17.31	24.88	-34.90	12122127	Downward Expansion	-80	78
2023-10-06	18.16	25.25	-31.05	7238414	Downward Expansion	-76	64

Price vs TrendBelow-50.8%

Trend directionFalling-30.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-74.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-12.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-64.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-14.2%

Price momentumNegative-66.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.08×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-86 / ±100

-4.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

94 /100

+23.2 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

0881 Directional State ↗ 0881 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance4

Rotation Up10

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down83

Downward Expansion97

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 9%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 61%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-09-25	Extended	-75.2%
Rotation Down	2025-11-14	2025-12-19	Developing	-5.6%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-07	New	-10.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-10-10	Developing	+6.7%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-08-01	Developing	+9.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-06-27	Developing	+12.6%
Balance	2025-04-04	2025-04-18	New	-15.6%
Deceleration	2024-12-27	2025-03-28	Established	-1.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-29	2024-12-20	New	-3.1%
Rotation Up	2024-10-04	2024-11-22	Developing	+12.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-28	2024-09-27	Established	+9.8%
Balance	2024-05-10	2024-06-21	Developing	-19.2%
Downward Expansion	2023-05-05	2024-05-03	Extended	-52.4%
Deceleration	2023-04-14	2023-04-28	New	-8.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing54

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution16

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -64.17
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -66.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -64.4%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 87th percentile215 in cohort

Test 0881 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.25×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.08×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 0881 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 3.20falling

Slow Activity HKD 4.85falling

Trend Reference HKD 5.89-50.8% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 11.45-74.7% close margin

Structural low HKD 2.81shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +13.4%

Annualized volatility +39.4%

From structural high -81.1%

From structural low +3.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	41	-6.3%-34.1% to +25.3%	+34.1%	+65.9%	-3.7%	+87.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	-19.3%-43.4% to +32.8%	+35.7%	+64.3%	-13.5%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-19.6%-58.6% to +19.4%	+28.6%	+71.4%	-25.8%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-33.7%-52.4% to -18.3%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-42.3%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

0881 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map