Weekly structural research · HKG · Healthcare

0512 Stage Analysis

Grand Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close HKD 4.74Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -68−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 55/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -16.6%HKD 5.69 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	4.74	5.45	-22.99	11263638	Downward Expansion	-68	55
2026-10-02	4.80	5.53	-21.97	13655500	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2026-09-25	4.76	5.62	-24.95	25103500	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2026-09-18	4.88	5.73	-24.44	22746498	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2026-09-11	4.74	5.81	-27.61	21034587	Downward Expansion	-75	53
2026-09-04	4.91	5.91	-28.18	3896500	Downward Expansion	-59	40
2026-08-28	5.24	6.01	-24.05	4122000	Downward Expansion	-28	25
2026-08-21	5.26	6.09	-25.97	9317000	Downward Expansion	-39	31
2026-08-14	5.24	6.18	-24.52	5034000	Downward Expansion	-41	34
2026-08-07	5.24	6.26	-26.84	5095500	Downward Expansion	-43	38
2026-07-31	5.16	6.35	-29.12	2458000	Downward Expansion	-46	45
2026-07-24	5.19	6.44	-26.79	5795500	Downward Expansion	-49	48
2026-07-17	5.16	6.54	-26.78	8140500	Downward Expansion	-54	58
2026-07-10	5.07	6.64	-27.79	4763200	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2026-07-03	5.15	6.74	-24.93	5682330	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2026-06-26	4.57	6.84	-32.17	6129901	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2026-06-19	4.80	6.96	-33.16	14497500	Downward Expansion	-80	92
2026-06-12	5.05	7.08	-32.62	5436500	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2026-06-05	5.00	7.20	-34.80	3155500	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2026-05-29	5.06	7.31	-35.16	36642498	Downward Expansion	-86	92
2026-05-22	5.31	7.42	-33.88	31212500	Downward Expansion	-86	92
2026-05-15	5.72	7.51	-30.46	31721772	Downward Expansion	-82	90
2026-05-08	5.94	7.59	-29.54	18452626	Downward Expansion	-78	88
2026-05-01	6.01	7.67	-27.47	11620880	Downward Expansion	-83	86
2026-04-24	6.34	7.76	-24.24	28603602	Downward Expansion	-78	72
2026-04-17	6.53	7.83	-22.58	29985437	Downward Expansion	-77	73
2026-04-10	6.63	7.90	-20.67	16116209	Downward Expansion	-78	78
2026-04-03	7.22	7.97	-11.02	34030649	Downward Expansion	-64	74
2026-03-27	6.78	8.03	-15.78	40655410	Downward Expansion	-80	80
2026-03-20	6.91	8.12	-15.19	22598002	Downward Expansion	-83	66
2026-03-13	7.14	8.21	-12.88	27419500	Downward Expansion	-78	56
2026-03-06	7.67	8.25	-7.26	44884060	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2026-02-27	7.83	8.27	-7.94	18024000	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2026-02-20	7.52	8.29	-10.40	2215000	Downward Expansion	-72	60
2026-02-13	7.56	8.35	-9.96	23353500	Downward Expansion	-71	47
2026-02-06	7.89	8.42	-5.48	19875500	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2026-01-30	7.82	8.47	-8.59	17278150	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2026-01-23	7.83	8.52	-5.79	19363112	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2026-01-16	7.81	8.55	-5.85	31588974	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2026-01-09	7.90	8.57	-2.08	32847530	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2026-01-02	7.80	8.63	-3.23	12828000	Downward Expansion	-68	50
2025-12-26	8.11	8.66	3.12	5552000	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2025-12-19	8.19	8.67	5.24	33004656	Downward Expansion	-53	41
2025-12-12	8.18	8.71	4.55	36491795	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2025-12-05	8.16	8.72	4.46	15623615	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2025-11-28	8.22	8.69	6.74	13319700	Deceleration	-52	26
2025-11-21	8.11	8.62	8.64	21084000	Deceleration	-21	15
2025-11-14	8.65	8.54	10.74	24994333	Deceleration	-11	10
2025-11-07	8.42	8.44	9.83	51730000	Deceleration	-25	24
2025-10-31	8.26	8.35	9.88	33117740	Deceleration	-28	33
2025-10-24	8.19	8.27	8.65	32932000	Deceleration	-3	23
2025-10-17	8.17	8.20	13.01	53837000	Balance	-3	16
2025-10-10	8.37	8.12	11.98	22383500	Balance	2	14
2025-10-03	8.52	8.04	11.11	15109702	Balance	10	12
2025-09-26	8.36	7.92	13.99	40848896	Balance	12	10
2025-09-19	8.69	7.80	17.39	54638000	Upward Expansion	37	24
2025-09-12	8.94	7.67	22.33	90844300	Upward Expansion	51	36
2025-09-05	8.98	7.51	28.45	79850051	Deceleration	50	34
2025-08-29	9.40	7.35	37.34	104232693	Deceleration	58	34
2025-08-22	9.70	7.17	41.66	162387600	Deceleration	54	27
2025-08-15	8.39	6.99	24.23	112714182	Deceleration	35	23
2025-08-08	8.26	6.85	25.04	123290300	Upward Expansion	43	29
2025-08-01	8.40	6.71	29.73	167575309	Upward Expansion	56	41
2025-07-25	9.15	6.58	37.36	91629500	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-07-18	9.75	6.43	50.90	109161452	Upward Expansion	72	58
2025-07-11	9.27	6.25	49.19	94151000	Upward Expansion	64	54
2025-07-04	9.50	6.09	55.86	71968962	Upward Expansion	73	61
2025-06-27	8.63	5.93	40.95	82095500	Upward Expansion	63	58
2025-06-20	8.44	5.78	43.41	147371000	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-06-13	9.66	5.64	62.98	216256000	Upward Expansion	83	90
2025-06-06	8.62	5.47	47.73	146066871	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-05-30	8.64	5.33	52.57	190616969	Upward Expansion	77	91
2025-05-23	9.19	5.19	61.73	315195058	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-05-16	8.43	5.03	51.85	454117400	Upward Expansion	93	91
2025-05-09	7.47	4.90	38.76	119877862	Upward Expansion	91	67
2025-05-02	5.93	4.82	12.74	22567500	Upward Expansion	66	48
2025-04-25	5.86	4.78	14.44	35742053	Upward Expansion	66	53
2025-04-18	5.56	4.74	11.97	21893740	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-04-11	5.65	4.70	16.77	59505796	Upward Expansion	68	82
2025-04-04	6.05	4.65	14.93	46531000	Upward Expansion	79	92
2025-03-28	5.99	4.59	11.57	54750500	Upward Expansion	86	95
2025-03-21	5.88	4.53	8.49	68286000	Upward Expansion	92	97
2025-03-14	5.77	4.47	5.58	129257945	Upward Expansion	94	93
2025-03-07	5.07	4.42	-8.05	22947000	Upward Expansion	84	73
2025-02-28	4.81	4.39	-7.68	48484500	Downward Expansion	43	35
2025-02-21	4.59	4.37	-13.78	21444500	Downward Expansion	-12	8
2025-02-14	4.39	4.36	-14.44	20025536	Downward Expansion	-50	42
2025-02-07	4.17	4.36	-13.03	12471693	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2025-01-31	4.02	4.37	-12.22	1879000	Balance	-69	69
2025-01-24	4.09	4.39	-10.02	19876200	Balance	-38	48
2025-01-17	4.22	4.40	-4.96	9304855	Balance	-18	29
2025-01-10	4.24	4.41	-1.87	11246350	Balance	-13	11
2025-01-03	4.40	4.43	-1.64	6026500	Balance	29	15
2024-12-27	4.54	4.43	-0.05	2126500	Balance	36	20
2024-12-20	4.53	4.43	1.68	12541800	Balance	34	15
2024-12-13	4.47	4.43	-0.73	12048000	Balance	-10	8
2024-12-06	4.52	4.43	0.90	16454500	Balance	-0	6
2024-11-29	4.33	4.43	-1.09	18071000	Balance	-9	12
2024-11-22	4.15	4.43	-4.36	15913500	Balance	-20	17
2024-11-15	4.49	4.42	2.34	18718500	Upward Expansion	29	15
2024-11-08	4.51	4.39	-3.68	13965000	Upward Expansion	32	15
2024-11-01	4.40	4.36	-5.22	12455287	Upward Expansion	44	23
2024-10-25	4.51	4.33	-3.19	14388000	Upward Expansion	53	54
2024-10-18	4.52	4.30	-3.93	23408000	Upward Expansion	54	55
2024-10-11	4.80	4.28	-0.14	36306694	Upward Expansion	62	60
2024-10-04	4.97	4.23	-3.21	20587293	Deceleration	72	53
2024-09-27	4.65	4.16	-0.31	15430012	Deceleration	47	22
2024-09-20	4.14	4.12	0.47	6443000	Deceleration	4	11
2024-09-13	4.18	4.09	6.75	7446603	Deceleration	6	14
2024-09-06	4.24	4.06	8.33	7074480	Deceleration	12	13
2024-08-30	4.22	4.02	4.74	10252000	Deceleration	12	13
2024-08-23	4.02	3.98	2.19	11170700	Deceleration	-3	11
2024-08-16	4.41	3.95	13.56	7272000	Deceleration	23	16
2024-08-09	4.32	3.91	13.90	10339753	Deceleration	20	20
2024-08-02	4.21	3.88	12.28	10768460	Deceleration	33	21
2024-07-26	4.25	3.86	13.51	6518500	Deceleration	39	24
2024-07-19	4.25	3.84	11.39	9680665	Upward Expansion	44	31
2024-07-12	4.60	3.82	15.05	9020000	Upward Expansion	63	47
2024-07-05	4.54	3.78	17.26	6313905	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-06-28	4.45	3.75	15.75	11592405	Upward Expansion	61	53
2024-06-21	4.56	3.73	17.10	18424500	Upward Expansion	63	57
2024-06-14	4.61	3.72	19.42	18989800	Upward Expansion	68	59
2024-06-07	4.66	3.70	18.41	21991500	Upward Expansion	74	78
2024-05-31	4.47	3.68	15.87	36975903	Upward Expansion	67	83
2024-05-24	4.37	3.66	10.29	31078000	Upward Expansion	66	84
2024-05-17	4.64	3.64	11.58	21451300	Rotation Up	87	92
2024-05-10	4.53	3.60	12.44	35539400	Rotation Up	60	75
2024-05-03	4.12	3.58	4.93	9329700	Rotation Up	43	59
2024-04-26	3.92	3.57	4.41	18202000	Rotation Up	35	46
2024-04-19	3.60	3.57	4.35	11683000	Rotation Up	18	29
2024-04-12	3.72	3.57	4.62	14675000	Balance	25	32
2024-04-05	3.48	3.57	-1.90	9915500	Balance	-8	21
2024-03-29	3.73	3.58	6.22	20339000	Downward Expansion	-4	16
2024-03-22	3.67	3.57	5.23	30551500	Downward Expansion	-16	13
2024-03-15	3.28	3.58	-6.95	10823834	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2024-03-08	3.12	3.60	-9.63	16806500	Downward Expansion	-62	40
2024-03-01	3.17	3.62	-9.36	19516260	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2024-02-23	3.31	3.65	-6.28	9467900	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2024-02-16	3.21	3.67	-6.98	4049500	Downward Expansion	-65	72
2024-02-09	3.05	3.70	-8.37	8095112	Downward Expansion	-73	82
2024-02-02	3.02	3.73	-8.00	9152500	Downward Expansion	-80	83
2024-01-26	3.15	3.76	-6.42	9824500	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2024-01-19	3.19	3.78	-1.30	11775000	Downward Expansion	-80	68
2024-01-12	3.51	3.81	2.44	5586000	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2024-01-05	3.59	3.83	3.23	4851274	Downward Expansion	-57	55
2023-12-29	3.71	3.85	3.65	6419000	Balance	-52	39
2023-12-22	3.50	3.86	2.17	7285200	Balance	-64	43
2023-12-15	3.69	3.89	5.07	15220000	Balance	-38	20
2023-12-08	3.57	3.91	4.79	21575000	Rotation Up	-40	19
2023-12-01	3.91	3.94	11.45	9953438	Rotation Up	18	34
2023-11-24	4.16	3.97	14.19	12801467	Balance	33	41
2023-11-17	4.02	3.98	11.55	8287000	Balance	3	14
2023-11-10	3.98	3.99	12.22	13591296	Balance	-6	5
2023-11-03	3.88	4.00	6.89	16674180	Downward Expansion	-33	20
2023-10-27	3.72	4.00	4.01	7330499	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2023-10-20	3.63	4.01	2.92	6629000	Downward Expansion	-49	27

Price vs TrendBelow-13.0%

Trend directionFalling-14.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-16.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-7.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-23.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.8%

Price momentumNegative-28.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.03×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-68 / ±100

+7.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

55 /100

+1.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

0512 Directional State ↗ 0512 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance19

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion8

Deceleration48

Rotation Down71

Downward Expansion86

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 14%Downward Expansion 42%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-10-09	Extended	-41.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-11-28	Developing	+0.4%
Balance	2025-09-26	2025-10-17	New	-2.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-09-19	New	-2.8%
Deceleration	2025-08-15	2025-09-05	New	+7.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-08-08	Established	+63.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-02-28	New	+15.4%
Balance	2024-11-22	2025-01-31	Developing	-3.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-11	2024-11-15	Developing	-6.4%
Deceleration	2024-07-26	2024-10-04	Developing	+16.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-24	2024-07-19	Developing	-2.6%
Rotation Up	2024-04-19	2024-05-17	Developing	+29.0%
Balance	2024-04-05	2024-04-12	New	+6.8%
Downward Expansion	2024-01-05	2024-03-29	Established	+3.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing58

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution13

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 84/100
Current Relative Strength: -22.99
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -28.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -22.0%
Healthcare regime cohort: 37th percentile132 in cohort

Test 0512 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.05×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.03×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 0512 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 4.78falling

Slow Activity HKD 5.11falling

Trend Reference HKD 5.45-13.0% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 5.69-16.6% close margin

Structural low HKD 4.53shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.5%

Annualized volatility +27.2%

From structural high -47.2%

From structural low +4.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	35	-0.2%-16.3% to +21.6%	+48.6%	+51.4%	+0.8%	+85.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	-4.2%-34.9% to +79.2%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-1.4%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-4.9%-38.8% to +98.2%	+42.9%	+57.1%	+5.5%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+8.0%-32.0% to +89.3%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+11.8%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

0512 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map