Weekly structural research · JPX · Energy

1518 Stage Analysis

Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 2,300.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 55−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 59/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 72/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +120.4%JPY 1,043.59 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	2,300.00	1,713.36	29.72	759900	Upward Expansion	55	59
2026-09-18	2,296.00	1,685.62	32.76	1510700	Upward Expansion	67	65
2026-09-11	2,223.00	1,657.20	31.26	1702700	Upward Expansion	65	66
2026-09-04	2,289.00	1,632.94	33.62	1826700	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-08-28	2,362.00	1,604.92	35.60	1663600	Upward Expansion	76	91
2026-08-21	2,283.00	1,572.30	32.56	288700	Upward Expansion	67	89
2026-08-14	2,349.00	1,543.41	31.63	381100	Upward Expansion	86	95
2026-08-07	2,285.00	1,511.52	34.67	320400	Upward Expansion	92	97
2026-07-31	2,326.00	1,482.01	40.32	622500	Upward Expansion	98	99
2026-07-24	2,241.00	1,450.17	35.51	3839800	Upward Expansion	98	98
2026-07-17	1,513.00	1,420.29	-7.56	218100	Upward Expansion	65	74
2026-07-10	1,554.00	1,414.19	-11.28	108700	Upward Expansion	76	83
2026-07-03	1,552.00	1,406.40	-13.03	175700	Upward Expansion	81	82
2026-06-26	1,498.00	1,398.67	-15.78	205400	Upward Expansion	69	70
2026-06-19	1,496.00	1,392.69	-18.27	199600	Upward Expansion	71	69
2026-06-12	1,487.00	1,385.86	-12.57	317400	Balance	69	59
2026-06-05	1,406.00	1,378.42	-18.09	193000	Balance	48	32
2026-05-29	1,460.00	1,373.53	-14.74	1289300	Balance	59	32
2026-05-22	1,397.00	1,366.83	-14.73	1348000	Balance	30	13
2026-05-15	1,405.00	1,363.43	-11.74	1877000	Balance	26	13
2026-05-08	1,364.00	1,358.67	-16.27	514700	Balance	8	12
2026-05-01	1,353.00	1,355.69	-12.41	966900	Balance	4	9
2026-04-24	1,341.00	1,353.76	-13.38	1076300	Balance	1	4
2026-04-17	1,395.00	1,352.19	-7.98	915300	Balance	11	7
2026-04-10	1,369.00	1,347.62	-7.17	866700	Balance	8	11
2026-04-03	1,394.00	1,345.19	1.48	1425900	Balance	12	14
2026-03-27	1,363.00	1,340.65	-0.84	1627500	Upward Expansion	18	20
2026-03-20	1,354.26	1,335.17	-1.19	857600	Upward Expansion	23	17
2026-03-13	1,364.94	1,330.55	-0.94	1646000	Upward Expansion	37	21
2026-03-06	1,380.47	1,326.35	-2.72	1643100	Upward Expansion	57	41
2026-02-27	1,467.85	1,321.11	-1.97	892800	Upward Expansion	66	67
2026-02-20	1,443.58	1,310.04	0.16	1351200	Upward Expansion	62	61
2026-02-13	1,495.03	1,304.23	3.95	1414000	Upward Expansion	82	73
2026-02-06	1,448.43	1,287.92	6.14	1216700	Upward Expansion	74	54
2026-01-30	1,383.39	1,272.09	3.67	1006200	Upward Expansion	62	53
2026-01-23	1,416.39	1,259.44	5.55	1283500	Upward Expansion	72	72
2026-01-16	1,392.12	1,244.36	4.00	1140700	Upward Expansion	69	68
2026-01-09	1,399.89	1,229.67	8.90	1357700	Upward Expansion	75	69
2026-01-02	1,370.77	1,212.37	10.49	450400	Upward Expansion	71	61
2025-12-26	1,344.55	1,195.82	8.19	1161800	Upward Expansion	61	41
2025-12-19	1,329.99	1,182.08	10.43	829400	Upward Expansion	59	44
2025-12-12	1,320.28	1,168.66	7.69	1098100	Upward Expansion	57	39
2025-12-05	1,320.28	1,156.91	9.27	1345600	Upward Expansion	57	37
2025-11-28	1,318.34	1,138.95	10.48	826000	Deceleration	59	35
2025-11-21	1,291.16	1,120.94	12.69	1476400	Deceleration	44	28
2025-11-14	1,263.98	1,104.62	7.25	2284900	Deceleration	40	29
2025-11-07	1,259.12	1,088.98	7.67	1674400	Upward Expansion	44	34
2025-10-31	1,259.12	1,071.09	3.72	4656700	Upward Expansion	47	38
2025-10-24	1,295.04	1,052.60	13.72	1305400	Upward Expansion	63	47
2025-10-17	1,262.04	1,036.18	15.26	955900	Upward Expansion	59	44
2025-10-10	1,274.66	1,020.87	15.60	1669700	Upward Expansion	62	49
2025-10-03	1,295.04	1,004.07	23.76	3285300	Upward Expansion	66	55
2025-09-26	1,294.07	986.93	25.18	808000	Upward Expansion	70	64
2025-09-19	1,257.81	969.46	23.00	802000	Upward Expansion	64	62
2025-09-12	1,295.98	953.41	28.03	1585000	Upward Expansion	76	67
2025-09-05	1,257.81	937.24	29.97	1303500	Upward Expansion	73	73
2025-08-29	1,198.64	921.32	25.36	1640000	Upward Expansion	66	79
2025-08-22	1,215.82	908.42	28.00	1313500	Upward Expansion	68	84
2025-08-15	1,238.72	895.74	28.62	1543000	Upward Expansion	80	92
2025-08-08	1,223.45	883.07	32.20	1780000	Upward Expansion	82	89
2025-08-01	1,135.65	870.39	26.35	1922500	Upward Expansion	74	85
2025-07-25	1,269.26	857.88	39.45	3134500	Upward Expansion	97	96
2025-07-18	1,005.87	839.85	15.60	1333500	Upward Expansion	72	79
2025-07-11	973.42	826.80	12.54	1194500	Upward Expansion	65	72
2025-07-04	1,003.96	815.83	15.28	1521000	Upward Expansion	76	64
2025-06-27	963.87	803.90	10.03	2888500	Upward Expansion	70	48
2025-06-20	951.47	793.10	13.58	4854500	Upward Expansion	71	49
2025-06-13	880.85	784.07	6.89	2187000	Upward Expansion	59	59
2025-06-06	874.17	778.06	6.33	2661000	Upward Expansion	62	74
2025-05-30	932.38	775.27	12.87	1805000	Upward Expansion	71	78
2025-05-23	927.61	770.41	14.93	2507500	Upward Expansion	75	75
2025-05-16	967.69	766.93	18.33	5296000	Upward Expansion	79	67
2025-05-09	781.60	763.61	-3.69	347000	Balance	31	20
2025-05-02	777.78	768.05	-2.28	556000	Balance	29	14
2025-04-25	801.64	773.78	4.30	874000	Balance	-1	7
2025-04-18	794.96	778.64	7.01	928500	Balance	-24	18
2025-04-11	722.43	781.32	1.27	1568000	Balance	-44	31
2025-04-04	704.30	785.27	-1.19	1413500	Balance	-49	23
2025-03-28	802.59	790.20	3.09	1656500	Balance	21	11
2025-03-21	802.54	792.62	2.34	975000	Balance	-17	10
2025-03-14	770.70	797.21	0.69	1151500	Balance	-25	17
2025-03-07	781.00	802.92	3.19	1269500	Balance	-23	15
2025-02-28	769.76	804.98	1.56	890500	Balance	-21	16
2025-02-21	776.32	808.00	-1.27	2682000	Balance	-17	11
2025-02-14	810.97	813.89	2.74	1005000	Balance	-0	15
2025-02-07	780.06	821.11	0.41	1224000	Rotation Up	0	22
2025-01-31	811.90	829.97	3.07	1244500	Rotation Up	3	30
2025-01-24	835.31	833.28	5.75	2325000	Downward Expansion	3	31
2025-01-17	858.73	836.78	13.61	2531500	Downward Expansion	1	28
2025-01-10	842.81	837.79	10.27	7952500	Downward Expansion	-17	23
2025-01-03	760.40	840.05	-1.61	1201000	Downward Expansion	-51	44
2024-12-27	728.56	842.83	-6.26	4344500	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2024-12-20	614.31	847.53	-17.42	1836500	Downward Expansion	-78	90
2024-12-13	644.28	855.24	-14.98	2414500	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2024-12-06	646.15	865.47	-13.80	2037500	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2024-11-29	639.60	868.57	-12.64	1971000	Downward Expansion	-87	94
2024-11-22	680.80	868.51	-7.07	2834500	Rotation Down	-85	90
2024-11-15	700.47	865.29	-5.01	3815500	Rotation Down	-59	77
2024-11-08	790.37	860.67	5.21	2084500	Rotation Down	-41	59
2024-11-01	786.62	853.08	9.21	4189500	Deceleration	-31	39
2024-10-25	823.14	845.30	15.32	1807000	Deceleration	-1	3
2024-10-18	868.09	835.79	18.98	1256500	Deceleration	25	20
2024-10-11	914.91	824.85	24.34	1588000	Deceleration	36	26
2024-10-04	949.56	811.89	33.47	1580500	Deceleration	43	23
2024-09-27	947.69	800.01	30.52	1042500	Deceleration	30	15
2024-09-20	875.26	787.61	28.36	1288500	Deceleration	15	15
2024-09-13	840.95	776.73	28.17	1586000	Deceleration	14	13
2024-09-06	852.08	766.31	31.62	1564500	Deceleration	25	17
2024-08-30	875.26	754.77	28.39	2590500	Deceleration	37	21
2024-08-23	940.16	742.55	39.95	1606000	Deceleration	42	25
2024-08-16	942.01	728.39	42.74	1896000	Deceleration	44	25
2024-08-09	842.81	714.18	40.30	2554500	Upward Expansion	43	28
2024-08-02	860.42	703.47	41.05	1682000	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-07-26	953.14	691.60	50.50	1589500	Upward Expansion	64	56
2024-07-19	1,027.32	675.78	54.44	1528000	Upward Expansion	76	64
2024-07-12	1,045.86	657.79	54.94	6647000	Upward Expansion	83	66
2024-07-05	911.42	639.48	37.72	2211500	Upward Expansion	66	60
2024-06-28	940.16	626.08	48.10	3135000	Upward Expansion	76	66
2024-06-21	889.17	611.94	45.34	3231000	Upward Expansion	69	66
2024-06-14	910.49	599.17	49.62	4286000	Upward Expansion	76	72
2024-06-07	843.73	585.29	40.86	5016500	Upward Expansion	68	85
2024-05-31	869.69	573.81	47.24	4801500	Upward Expansion	76	91
2024-05-24	845.59	561.20	43.92	9640500	Upward Expansion	81	93
2024-05-17	951.29	549.54	62.45	36610500	Upward Expansion	99	99
2024-05-10	738.96	533.58	29.34	14105000	Upward Expansion	96	95
2024-05-03	637.90	524.60	11.66	3416500	Upward Expansion	88	81
2024-04-26	584.12	518.88	2.74	2702000	Upward Expansion	71	56
2024-04-19	561.87	516.10	0.59	3314000	Upward Expansion	58	36
2024-04-12	562.80	514.60	-6.09	3251000	Upward Expansion	51	30
2024-04-05	553.16	513.00	-7.11	4606500	Upward Expansion	44	22
2024-03-29	537.76	511.60	-13.47	4071500	Upward Expansion	54	35
2024-03-22	539.91	511.03	-15.04	3098000	Upward Expansion	60	55
2024-03-15	526.10	509.43	-13.54	5417000	Upward Expansion	62	71
2024-03-08	593.13	507.63	-5.89	6658500	Upward Expansion	85	87
2024-03-01	575.88	504.71	-9.94	4896000	Upward Expansion	85	79
2024-02-23	548.63	501.49	-13.18	3936500	Upward Expansion	75	54
2024-02-16	528.46	498.92	-16.01	11635000	Upward Expansion	64	40
2024-02-09	505.94	496.82	-17.06	4534500	Upward Expansion	51	39
2024-02-02	508.66	495.50	-15.43	4353500	Upward Expansion	53	52
2024-01-26	515.38	494.84	-13.85	4404500	Balance	56	54
2024-01-19	515.56	493.19	-14.84	3245500	Balance	54	38
2024-01-12	521.74	491.37	-13.55	3966500	Balance	60	24
2024-01-05	504.12	489.01	-11.58	2116500	Balance	33	19
2023-12-29	478.69	487.96	-16.60	4059000	Balance	14	11
2023-12-22	487.41	487.91	-14.79	3760000	Upward Expansion	30	17
2023-12-15	496.67	488.55	-13.08	4448000	Upward Expansion	52	43
2023-12-08	509.57	489.03	-9.42	3771000	Upward Expansion	57	53
2023-12-01	515.93	490.76	-11.73	5020000	Balance	65	50
2023-11-24	505.94	492.10	-14.32	3638000	Balance	18	16
2023-11-17	494.13	494.14	-16.49	6603500	Balance	-12	11
2023-11-10	499.21	496.81	-13.30	5441000	Balance	-11	5
2023-11-03	491.58	499.09	-13.04	6592500	Balance	-33	21
2023-10-27	495.76	501.55	-9.67	4764000	Balance	-34	29
2023-10-20	472.51	504.64	-14.52	2982000	Balance	-45	36
2023-10-13	469.42	509.34	-18.21	3824500	Balance	-45	30
2023-10-06	466.51	513.69	-15.63	5705500	Balance	-41	19

Price vs TrendAbove+34.2%

Trend directionRising+20.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+120.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+55.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+29.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+45.5%

Price momentumPositive+68.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.08×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

55 / ±100

-20.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

59 /100

-31.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1518 Directional State ↗ 1518 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance15

Rotation Up49

Upward Expansion72

Deceleration66

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion22

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 57%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 6%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-09-25	Established	+53.7%
Balance	2026-04-03	2026-06-12	Developing	+6.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-03-27	Established	+3.2%
Deceleration	2025-11-14	2025-11-28	New	+4.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-11-07	Established	+30.1%
Balance	2025-02-14	2025-05-09	Established	-3.6%
Rotation Up	2025-01-31	2025-02-07	New	-3.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-01-24	Developing	+30.6%
Rotation Down	2024-11-08	2024-11-22	New	-13.9%
Deceleration	2024-08-16	2024-11-01	Developing	-16.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-02-02	2024-08-09	Extended	+65.7%
Balance	2023-12-29	2024-01-26	Developing	+7.7%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-08	2023-12-22	New	-4.3%
Balance	2023-09-08	2023-12-01	Established	+0.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution51

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 97/100
Current Relative Strength: 29.72
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +68.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +44.4%
Energy regime cohort: 50th percentile10 in cohort

Test 1518 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.81×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.08×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1518 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 2,286.20falling

Slow Activity JPY 1,915.51rising

Trend Reference JPY 1,713.36+34.2% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 1,043.59+120.4% close margin

Structural low JPY 1,316.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.8%

Annualized volatility +57.2%

From structural high -3.9%

From structural low +90.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	39	+1.9%-10.8% to +55.3%	+59.0%	+59.0%	+1.5%	+79.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	+16.7%-24.8% to +53.5%	+92.9%	+92.9%	+10.6%	+64.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	+18.7%-23.4% to +86.6%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+3.0%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+36.0%+7.0% to +194.7%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-4.7%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1518 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map