Weekly structural research · BUE · Energy

YPFD Stage Analysis

YPF Sociedad Anónima

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close ARS 8,440.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MERV

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 64−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 67/100directional strength

Maturity 30/100lifecycle context

Confidence 91/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +98.3%ARS 4,256.97 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	8,440.00	7,328.58	32.43	11015800	Upward Expansion	64	67
2026-09-18	8,760.00	7,216.50	32.52	10503591	Upward Expansion	72	71
2026-09-11	8,835.00	7,109.92	31.14	14648553	Upward Expansion	78	65
2026-09-04	8,355.00	6,997.58	26.67	9499056	Upward Expansion	67	46
2026-08-28	8,070.00	6,908.75	25.88	11047684	Upward Expansion	58	40
2026-08-21	8,150.00	6,838.75	30.75	1529622	Upward Expansion	63	45
2026-08-14	7,860.00	6,750.92	25.51	2117417	Upward Expansion	58	47
2026-08-07	7,775.00	6,662.75	19.31	8248373	Upward Expansion	59	54
2026-07-31	8,290.00	6,576.50	19.89	8064730	Upward Expansion	71	61
2026-07-24	8,200.00	6,488.33	19.44	12700050	Deceleration	71	46
2026-07-17	7,790.00	6,397.00	17.04	11442430	Deceleration	50	30
2026-07-10	7,440.00	6,319.58	9.56	10248870	Upward Expansion	41	26
2026-07-03	7,157.50	6,247.75	8.45	10356270	Upward Expansion	48	39
2026-06-26	7,005.00	6,192.42	8.96	12450970	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-06-19	7,642.50	6,145.92	13.10	11699790	Upward Expansion	67	82
2026-06-12	8,340.00	6,071.08	21.52	15231920	Upward Expansion	81	89
2026-06-05	8,107.50	5,986.92	28.95	14054370	Upward Expansion	84	85
2026-05-29	7,835.00	5,897.67	22.22	15117150	Upward Expansion	84	72
2026-05-22	7,102.50	5,818.50	23.97	25274200	Upward Expansion	73	53
2026-05-15	6,500.00	5,722.68	20.03	13590270	Upward Expansion	57	39
2026-05-08	6,282.50	5,640.22	14.09	15854950	Upward Expansion	54	36
2026-05-01	6,765.00	5,561.20	20.65	12809040	Upward Expansion	70	45
2026-04-24	6,425.00	5,458.43	15.04	17512500	Upward Expansion	62	42
2026-04-17	5,920.00	5,372.20	4.77	16758690	Upward Expansion	59	57
2026-04-10	6,327.50	5,298.47	8.17	19765070	Upward Expansion	64	73
2026-04-03	6,545.00	5,221.55	12.23	42931340	Upward Expansion	73	76
2026-03-27	6,650.00	5,146.30	22.75	31088620	Upward Expansion	81	71
2026-03-20	6,155.00	5,062.30	16.95	37015920	Upward Expansion	69	37
2026-03-13	5,622.50	4,998.80	10.53	23990550	Upward Expansion	40	18
2026-03-06	5,510.00	4,954.47	9.25	24014610	Upward Expansion	34	18
2026-02-27	5,077.50	4,923.22	0.36	16165490	Upward Expansion	26	16
2026-02-20	5,562.50	4,904.55	1.11	7223410	Upward Expansion	57	51
2026-02-13	5,465.00	4,861.97	1.37	14782500	Upward Expansion	58	52
2026-02-06	5,690.00	4,812.88	-0.11	15809700	Upward Expansion	62	51
2026-01-30	5,970.00	4,754.72	-2.45	23996070	Deceleration	77	47
2026-01-23	5,515.00	4,688.97	-6.77	12589510	Deceleration	50	31
2026-01-16	5,215.00	4,638.80	-7.11	16419010	Upward Expansion	44	30
2026-01-09	5,187.50	4,603.55	-12.48	25229900	Upward Expansion	47	36
2026-01-02	5,645.00	4,574.80	-6.14	10295100	Upward Expansion	58	45
2025-12-26	5,460.00	4,523.88	-8.92	6703660	Upward Expansion	50	42
2025-12-19	5,467.50	4,484.22	-9.76	17089440	Upward Expansion	62	50
2025-12-12	5,285.00	4,443.80	-8.32	11837090	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-12-05	5,497.50	4,408.05	-6.99	12963610	Upward Expansion	65	76
2025-11-28	5,610.00	4,350.72	-4.57	16253770	Upward Expansion	69	85
2025-11-21	5,397.50	4,282.38	0.48	21387330	Upward Expansion	66	84
2025-11-14	5,815.00	4,230.38	-0.19	29205550	Upward Expansion	86	90
2025-11-07	5,430.00	4,165.97	-2.46	43000550	Upward Expansion	81	80
2025-10-31	5,460.00	4,118.88	-6.26	70246170	Upward Expansion	78	49
2025-10-24	4,228.00	4,070.72	5.19	35309930	Balance	1	5
2025-10-17	4,026.00	4,086.03	5.02	37487670	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2025-10-10	3,912.00	4,109.08	5.87	24453650	Downward Expansion	-55	55
2025-10-03	3,682.00	4,126.35	6.72	28916890	Balance	-65	60
2025-09-26	3,838.00	4,139.78	12.66	39900910	Balance	-48	42
2025-09-19	3,708.00	4,152.35	16.47	35109400	Balance	-38	28
2025-09-12	4,020.00	4,179.75	21.57	37127370	Balance	-12	11
2025-09-05	4,287.50	4,195.92	15.03	27985500	Balance	7	6
2025-08-29	4,130.00	4,204.42	12.01	26389160	Rotation Up	15	13
2025-08-22	4,250.00	4,224.00	8.96	23803360	Rotation Up	25	39
2025-08-15	4,292.50	4,242.67	6.27	22470440	Rotation Up	17	34
2025-08-08	4,572.50	4,267.92	7.96	28448020	Balance	28	39
2025-08-01	4,517.50	4,298.50	8.02	23109410	Balance	4	11
2025-07-25	4,285.00	4,322.92	6.60	24398720	Balance	-25	16
2025-07-18	3,992.50	4,348.25	5.42	19492140	Balance	-41	38
2025-07-11	3,945.00	4,379.83	7.91	19695450	Balance	-44	31
2025-07-04	3,997.50	4,410.08	5.81	32037770	Balance	-38	20
2025-06-27	4,010.00	4,417.33	8.33	23808200	Balance	-27	12
2025-06-20	4,157.50	4,434.25	11.39	9813350	Balance	-25	16
2025-06-13	4,325.00	4,445.75	12.77	27884540	Balance	-22	18
2025-06-06	4,117.50	4,423.33	6.28	22637090	Downward Expansion	-29	22
2025-05-30	4,270.00	4,398.33	4.51	22602350	Downward Expansion	-34	21
2025-05-23	4,255.00	4,355.25	1.30	36150820	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2025-05-16	4,212.50	4,313.25	1.56	46861140	Rotation Down	-29	37
2025-05-09	3,777.50	4,272.67	-0.08	36333000	Rotation Down	-34	56
2025-05-02	3,560.00	4,242.08	-5.19	10383780	Rotation Down	-45	62
2025-04-25	3,837.50	4,214.58	-3.62	20841930	Rotation Down	-35	51
2025-04-18	3,882.50	4,175.83	-0.45	17338200	Deceleration	-25	32
2025-04-11	4,017.50	4,143.08	-0.17	51090250	Deceleration	-2	8
2025-04-04	4,015.00	4,106.50	6.45	23083780	Deceleration	-3	6
2025-03-28	4,687.50	4,071.17	10.23	13459920	Deceleration	29	16
2025-03-21	4,717.50	4,017.00	8.63	19868030	Deceleration	17	15
2025-03-14	4,430.00	3,950.58	6.44	25552330	Deceleration	8	17
2025-03-07	4,085.00	3,896.42	1.43	16704870	Deceleration	-2	17
2025-02-28	4,215.00	3,850.17	7.29	24929830	Deceleration	20	22
2025-02-21	4,530.00	3,790.25	7.66	26771390	Deceleration	32	25
2025-02-14	4,505.00	3,727.17	6.14	26093020	Deceleration	37	27
2025-02-07	4,542.50	3,667.42	5.87	16771780	Upward Expansion	43	31
2025-01-31	4,717.50	3,617.58	3.66	27445840	Upward Expansion	51	46
2025-01-24	4,810.00	3,553.69	5.78	23062980	Upward Expansion	64	60
2025-01-17	5,050.00	3,484.15	13.64	25564530	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-01-10	5,490.00	3,407.20	10.94	29663350	Upward Expansion	81	72
2025-01-03	5,250.00	3,312.81	9.29	14131400	Upward Expansion	81	76
2024-12-27	5,045.00	3,225.50	11.33	11074670	Upward Expansion	80	75
2024-12-20	4,940.00	3,154.00	14.08	36621040	Upward Expansion	82	92
2024-12-13	4,852.50	3,077.62	16.93	29131530	Upward Expansion	88	95
2024-12-06	4,215.00	3,002.28	9.57	30537450	Upward Expansion	68	89
2024-11-29	4,517.50	2,943.95	14.74	31346770	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-11-22	4,502.50	2,880.34	17.06	32730910	Upward Expansion	97	97
2024-11-15	3,652.50	2,806.78	1.79	32992550	Upward Expansion	88	83
2024-11-08	3,367.50	2,753.26	-0.97	31824200	Upward Expansion	81	72
2024-11-01	2,977.50	2,714.98	-8.20	18395690	Upward Expansion	55	46
2024-10-25	2,995.00	2,689.43	-7.20	18257980	Upward Expansion	56	32
2024-10-18	2,995.00	2,662.40	-4.54	24239270	Upward Expansion	46	20
2024-10-11	2,860.00	2,636.48	-6.75	15017250	Upward Expansion	33	16
2024-10-04	2,735.00	2,605.48	-9.49	15086780	Upward Expansion	31	14
2024-09-27	2,675.00	2,575.98	-10.03	12837070	Upward Expansion	43	25
2024-09-20	2,900.00	2,551.30	-7.80	15795070	Upward Expansion	56	54
2024-09-13	2,920.00	2,522.00	-7.05	13858680	Upward Expansion	58	56
2024-09-06	2,955.00	2,487.75	-0.75	19773190	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-08-30	3,062.50	2,457.70	3.08	11589700	Upward Expansion	71	45
2024-08-23	2,725.00	2,430.74	-1.90	12250760	Upward Expansion	35	17
2024-08-16	2,805.00	2,413.18	-1.74	12884630	Upward Expansion	41	22
2024-08-09	2,697.50	2,386.93	-1.79	22429350	Upward Expansion	32	21
2024-08-02	2,417.50	2,357.70	-2.85	14202070	Upward Expansion	28	19
2024-07-26	2,637.50	2,340.49	-1.63	11660080	Upward Expansion	57	39
2024-07-19	2,712.50	2,308.21	-0.62	14781450	Upward Expansion	59	45
2024-07-12	3,047.50	2,274.01	2.08	9177720	Upward Expansion	78	57
2024-07-05	2,800.58	2,229.15	-1.19	12546160	Upward Expansion	67	50
2024-06-28	2,723.85	2,190.76	-2.88	14600200	Upward Expansion	61	48
2024-06-21	2,741.61	2,150.95	-0.20	4194280	Upward Expansion	66	56
2024-06-14	2,658.19	2,117.55	-3.68	18498870	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-06-07	2,630.79	2,061.12	-0.84	20557140	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-05-31	2,899.98	2,004.76	0.66	13617260	Upward Expansion	86	88
2024-05-24	2,648.70	1,939.43	-0.01	10619200	Upward Expansion	75	82
2024-05-17	2,592.25	1,883.22	1.12	11558910	Upward Expansion	77	81
2024-05-10	2,464.99	1,839.90	0.87	15367950	Upward Expansion	71	65
2024-05-03	2,609.32	1,798.71	3.62	10449540	Upward Expansion	85	65
2024-04-26	2,295.67	1,744.92	3.51	9005400	Upward Expansion	70	48
2024-04-19	2,046.81	1,701.80	-0.62	11000070	Upward Expansion	58	46
2024-04-12	2,219.31	1,665.71	2.90	10856940	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-04-05	2,210.72	1,623.12	5.00	8056600	Upward Expansion	66	53
2024-03-29	2,184.30	1,580.40	3.79	6854940	Deceleration	64	44
2024-03-22	2,217.44	1,543.88	4.16	13669400	Deceleration	68	40
2024-03-15	1,930.02	1,508.11	4.20	13141320	Deceleration	37	26
2024-03-08	1,849.93	1,480.28	6.69	8845370	Deceleration	40	27
2024-03-01	1,934.64	1,447.52	6.09	11140660	Upward Expansion	45	36
2024-02-23	2,021.01	1,410.54	5.78	11032470	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-02-16	1,892.44	1,369.95	2.88	5421800	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-02-09	2,053.35	1,334.47	5.49	12830460	Upward Expansion	66	69
2024-02-02	2,253.76	1,292.15	-0.61	8485730	Upward Expansion	80	84
2024-01-26	2,198.18	1,241.78	1.77	10116820	Upward Expansion	84	81
2024-01-19	2,017.52	1,194.00	-0.26	8734030	Upward Expansion	79	63
2024-01-12	1,820.58	1,152.23	2.34	10248390	Upward Expansion	69	58
2024-01-05	1,901.41	1,116.12	4.82	12537410	Upward Expansion	79	63
2023-12-29	1,668.82	1,073.61	4.77	17988810	Upward Expansion	67	72
2023-12-22	1,686.66	1,036.96	4.06	13322460	Upward Expansion	68	81
2023-12-15	1,701.59	999.30	7.77	23366820	Upward Expansion	73	85
2023-12-08	1,648.91	960.37	3.03	17241590	Upward Expansion	77	85
2023-12-01	1,529.69	923.11	3.69	20684950	Upward Expansion	74	73
2023-11-24	1,739.64	889.46	12.02	28940290	Upward Expansion	82	50
2023-11-17	965.24	848.48	-11.33	8953130	Upward Expansion	26	23
2023-11-10	939.94	833.59	-15.72	10221460	Upward Expansion	35	19
2023-11-03	940.00	819.00	-12.84	20740690	Upward Expansion	56	39
2023-10-27	962.58	803.25	-13.39	15718360	Upward Expansion	60	49
2023-10-20	1,292.56	785.98	-4.93	24215060	Upward Expansion	85	72
2023-10-13	1,229.43	755.42	-4.76	17757930	Deceleration	84	60
2023-10-06	995.52	726.71	-6.64	13441890	Deceleration	47	37

Price vs TrendAbove+15.2%

Trend directionRising+14.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+98.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+32.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+23.5%

Price momentumPositive+26.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.97×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

64 / ±100

+5.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

67 /100

+27.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

YPFD Directional State ↗ YPFD Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance7

Rotation Up69

Upward Expansion90

Deceleration45

Rotation Down15

Downward Expansion14

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 70%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 3%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-09-25	Developing	+1.8%
Deceleration	2026-07-17	2026-07-24	New	+5.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-07-10	Established	+30.8%
Deceleration	2026-01-23	2026-01-30	New	+8.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-31	2026-01-16	Developing	-4.5%
Balance	2025-10-24	2025-10-24	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-10	2025-10-17	New	+2.9%
Balance	2025-09-05	2025-10-03	Developing	-14.1%
Rotation Up	2025-08-15	2025-08-29	New	-3.8%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-08-08	Developing	+5.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-06-06	New	-3.2%
Rotation Down	2025-04-25	2025-05-16	New	+9.8%
Deceleration	2025-02-14	2025-04-18	Developing	-13.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-05	2025-02-07	Extended	+105.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution52

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MERV

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: 32.43
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +26.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +23.3%
Energy regime cohort: 73th percentile11 in cohort

Test YPFD trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.96×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.97×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore YPFD Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity ARS 8,568.33rising

Slow Activity ARS 7,805.23rising

Trend Reference ARS 7,328.58+15.2% close margin

Current Fair Value ARS 4,256.97+98.3% close margin

Structural low ARS 5,755.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.5%

Annualized volatility +38.1%

From structural high -8.5%

From structural low +134.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MERV	Regime survived	Read
Near term	49	+5.6%-25.3% to +76.3%	+69.4%	+69.4%	+0.6%	+81.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	17	+23.2%-24.5% to +139.8%	+76.5%	+76.5%	+2.8%	+76.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	+52.3%+12.0% to +149.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+10.0%	+62.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+139.9%+27.0% to +657.8%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+1.7%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

YPFD Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map