Weekly structural research · ASX · Utilities

H2G Stage Analysis

H2G Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.012Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 41−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 21/100directional strength

Maturity 58/100lifecycle context

Confidence 93/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +28.4%AUD 0.009345 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.012	0.0105	21.98	804982	Deceleration	41	21
2026-09-25	0.01	0.0104	2.13	667664	Upward Expansion	30	20
2026-09-18	0.011	0.0103	11.09	563151	Upward Expansion	58	43
2026-09-11	0.012	0.0103	21.06	1759417	Upward Expansion	63	70
2026-09-04	0.013	0.0102	27.58	131106	Upward Expansion	75	83
2026-08-28	0.012	0.00995	16.38	46235	Rotation Up	63	77
2026-08-21	0.012	0.009817	16.33	500497	Rotation Up	59	57
2026-08-14	0.013	0.009717	24.05	88041	Rotation Up	70	60
2026-08-07	0.012	0.009583	11.58	2687049	Rotation Up	29	13
2026-07-31	0.01	0.009517	-5.40	3927798	Downward Expansion	-37	26
2026-07-24	0.006	0.009467	-42.82	4272882	Downward Expansion	-84	68
2026-07-17	0.009	0.009567	-16.33	0	Balance	-14	11
2026-07-10	0.01	0.0096	-8.62	822565	Rotation Down	7	9
2026-07-03	0.009	0.009633	-19.46	121808	Rotation Down	-19	35
2026-06-26	0.009	0.0097	-19.96	681667	Rotation Down	-20	35
2026-06-19	0.009	0.009733	-21.55	1521467	Rotation Down	-19	36
2026-06-12	0.009	0.009767	-22.72	800435	Balance	-20	36
2026-06-05	0.009	0.009767	-22.85	3229984	Balance	-18	24
2026-05-29	0.009	0.009767	-24.94	288800	Balance	-18	21
2026-05-22	0.009	0.009767	-24.95	1366302	Balance	-9	17
2026-05-15	0.01	0.009783	-17.23	819269	Balance	25	20
2026-05-08	0.01	0.009783	-18.75	1272688	Upward Expansion	29	20
2026-05-01	0.009	0.009783	-26.94	3046800	Upward Expansion	22	12
2026-04-24	0.011	0.00985	-11.51	104284	Upward Expansion	54	35
2026-04-17	0.011	0.009883	-12.95	716132	Upward Expansion	56	44
2026-04-10	0.012	0.009883	-4.91	2475470	Rotation Up	59	62
2026-04-03	0.012	0.00985	-0.64	615875	Rotation Up	33	44
2026-03-27	0.011	0.009917	-8.62	4333571	Rotation Up	15	28
2026-03-20	0.012	0.01	0.27	7009274	Rotation Up	27	29
2026-03-13	0.013	0.0102	3.99	12566151	Rotation Up	2	12
2026-03-06	0.008	0.0104	-37.08	807443	Downward Expansion	-56	33
2026-02-27	0.008	0.0107	-39.03	5389198	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2026-02-20	0.009	0.011	-30.05	4059188	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2026-02-13	0.0085	0.0114	-32.14	8187220	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2026-02-06	0.007	0.0117	-42.30	5438533	Downward Expansion	-76	56
2026-01-30	0.008	0.0121	-34.84	3363076	Downward Expansion	-68	44
2026-01-23	0.009	0.0124	-26.06	17719400	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2026-01-16	0.009	0.0126	-25.74	3801599	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2026-01-09	0.01	0.013	-15.09	5582673	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2026-01-02	0.0085	0.0134	-27.22	393805	Downward Expansion	-67	45
2025-12-26	0.009	0.0137	-22.70	1328032	Downward Expansion	-52	31
2025-12-19	0.01	0.0138	-11.86	1739245	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2025-12-12	0.011	0.014	-2.77	676594	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2025-12-05	0.011	0.0141	-0.92	20386809	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2025-11-28	0.01	0.0141	-8.62	14297891	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-11-21	0.01	0.0141	-5.32	403345	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2025-11-14	0.009	0.014	-15.87	1986652	Downward Expansion	-67	70
2025-11-07	0.009	0.014	-16.44	8385690	Downward Expansion	-70	76
2025-10-31	0.009	0.014	-16.79	1598029	Downward Expansion	-71	75
2025-10-24	0.0095	0.0142	-12.78	1967958	Rotation Down	-70	68
2025-10-17	0.01	0.0143	-7.30	1185023	Rotation Down	-42	55
2025-10-10	0.01	0.0148	-6.33	14780855	Rotation Down	-71	69
2025-10-03	0.011	0.0146	3.35	6915567	Rotation Down	-32	61
2025-09-26	0.012	0.0144	16.46	2197360	Rotation Down	-26	58
2025-09-19	0.011	0.014	8.27	5148795	Rotation Down	-36	59
2025-09-12	0.011	0.0138	8.31	4572465	Balance	-36	40
2025-09-05	0.014	0.0135	39.21	717237	Balance	1	12
2025-08-29	0.014	0.0132	39.59	4478442	Upward Expansion	18	11
2025-08-22	0.017	0.0128	72.41	606445	Upward Expansion	39	25
2025-08-15	0.018	0.0123	86.89	1393946	Upward Expansion	52	33
2025-08-08	0.019	0.0118	104.83	1770317	Upward Expansion	58	38
2025-08-01	0.018	0.0114	102.42	2927398	Upward Expansion	45	36
2025-07-25	0.018	0.0109	107.45	2548634	Upward Expansion	48	39
2025-07-18	0.018	0.0104	110.13	4062273	Upward Expansion	59	44
2025-07-11	0.019	0.009883	131.74	1575716	Upward Expansion	68	64
2025-07-04	0.0175	0.009383	118.75	2546779	Upward Expansion	64	75
2025-06-27	0.016	0.008933	106.97	4418774	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-06-20	0.019	0.0085	151.23	1932788	Upward Expansion	69	81
2025-06-13	0.022	0.007967	196.39	5719330	Upward Expansion	82	77
2025-06-06	0.018	0.007367	151.24	3321665	Upward Expansion	74	65
2025-05-30	0.014	0.0069	102.35	5105518	Upward Expansion	61	50
2025-05-23	0.015	0.006567	121.27	6118133	Deceleration	68	46
2025-05-16	0.013	0.006233	94.47	3007421	Deceleration	52	31
2025-05-09	0.011	0.006	68.44	1469115	Deceleration	38	21
2025-05-02	0.01	0.005833	53.66	1233067	Deceleration	36	22
2025-04-25	0.009	0.005667	42.64	417999	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-04-18	0.008	0.005533	30.27	3033406	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-04-11	0.01	0.005433	67.46	8496999	Upward Expansion	64	82
2025-04-04	0.013	0.005267	118.76	6090266	Upward Expansion	65	86
2025-03-28	0.013	0.005033	113.69	30732355	Upward Expansion	68	86
2025-03-21	0.024	0.004767	300.69	40300186	Rotation Up	93	97
2025-03-14	0.006	0.004167	6.72	22482342	Rotation Up	19	23
2025-03-07	0.003	0.004167	-48.44	1300331	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2025-02-28	0.003	0.004267	-50.68	95154	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2025-02-21	0.003	0.004367	-52.55	635625	Downward Expansion	-61	57
2025-02-14	0.003	0.0045	-54.77	1239942	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2025-02-07	0.003	0.004633	-55.17	6141818	Downward Expansion	-70	57
2025-01-31	0.003	0.004767	-56.02	15837445	Downward Expansion	-76	53
2025-01-24	0.003	0.0049	-55.97	1769551	Downward Expansion	-64	37
2025-01-17	0.004	0.005033	-41.57	917546	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2025-01-10	0.004	0.0052	-42.26	621260	Downward Expansion	-49	46
2025-01-03	0.004	0.005367	-42.72	400892	Downward Expansion	-51	48
2024-12-27	0.003	0.0055	-57.66	0	Downward Expansion	-71	54
2024-12-20	0.003	0.0057	-57.30	100000	Downward Expansion	-75	58
2024-12-13	0.004	0.005933	-45.48	982341	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2024-12-06	0.004	0.0061	-46.81	1774046	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2024-11-29	0.003	0.006267	-60.72	58000	Downward Expansion	-80	90
2024-11-22	0.003	0.0065	-61.28	506091	Downward Expansion	-84	89
2024-11-15	0.004	0.0066	-48.83	334284	Downward Expansion	-72	81
2024-11-08	0.004	0.006667	-50.13	281750	Downward Expansion	-76	56
2024-11-01	0.004	0.006792	-50.27	1880527	Downward Expansion	-79	49
2024-10-25	0.005	0.006926	-39.80	1016134	Downward Expansion	-54	32
2024-10-18	0.006	0.007092	-29.73	1333540	Downward Expansion	-46	32
2024-10-11	0.006	0.007226	-30.27	7935288	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2024-10-04	0.005	0.007359	-42.31	22910392	Downward Expansion	-68	72
2024-09-27	0.005	0.007459	-43.73	110562	Downward Expansion	-73	88
2024-09-20	0.005	0.007626	-44.51	263419	Downward Expansion	-76	88
2024-09-13	0.005	0.007726	-44.55	1205948	Downward Expansion	-79	86
2024-09-06	0.006	0.007792	-33.61	1130159	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2024-08-30	0.005	0.007859	-45.81	3338309	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2024-08-23	0.006	0.007926	-35.54	3483312	Downward Expansion	-65	68
2024-08-16	0.006	0.007992	-36.11	7586342	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2024-08-09	0.006	0.008059	-35.49	15041	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2024-08-02	0.006	0.008126	-37.70	485703	Downward Expansion	-69	61
2024-07-26	0.007	0.008192	-28.12	400066	Downward Expansion	-55	52
2024-07-19	0.007	0.008226	-29.83	340957	Balance	-54	52
2024-07-12	0.007	0.008259	-30.97	2698800	Balance	-27	33
2024-07-05	0.007	0.008259	-31.12	2293996	Balance	-17	21
2024-06-28	0.007	0.008292	-31.88	1220225	Balance	-6	9
2024-06-21	0.009	0.008359	-14.04	343418	Balance	44	17
2024-06-14	0.009	0.008392	-14.25	1419762	Balance	46	24
2024-06-07	0.008	0.008492	-25.89	6357186	Balance	12	16
2024-05-31	0.009	0.008626	-16.36	1849529	Balance	23	29
2024-05-24	0.01	0.008692	-9.41	3921554	Balance	32	29
2024-05-17	0.009	0.008726	-21.69	225523	Balance	-18	12
2024-05-10	0.009	0.008792	-23.59	84956	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2024-05-03	0.01	0.008859	-16.75	2458853	Downward Expansion	-29	26
2024-04-26	0.006	0.008892	-50.86	534360	Downward Expansion	-70	52
2024-04-19	0.006	0.009026	-51.92	503221	Balance	-60	40
2024-04-12	0.007771	0.009159	-40.93	806768	Balance	-37	16
2024-04-05	0.008	0.009233	-40.60	250000	Rotation Up	-14	21
2024-03-29	0.01	0.0093	-28.83	0	Rotation Up	25	43
2024-03-22	0.01	0.009367	-29.37	323171	Balance	26	33
2024-03-15	0.01	0.009433	-29.83	100000	Balance	7	19
2024-03-08	0.008	0.0095	-46.31	103117	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2024-03-01	0.01	0.009633	-33.77	2559640	Downward Expansion	-14	12
2024-02-23	0.008	0.0097	-47.35	142500	Downward Expansion	-57	46
2024-02-16	0.007	0.009933	-54.94	2124166	Downward Expansion	-69	53
2024-02-09	0.008	0.0102	-49.53	629932	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2024-02-02	0.007	0.0105	-57.02	40228	Downward Expansion	-75	60
2024-01-26	0.008	0.0107	-51.07	203000	Downward Expansion	-53	50
2024-01-19	0.008	0.0109	-51.40	12500	Downward Expansion	-59	54
2024-01-12	0.008	0.0111	-53.21	70000	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2024-01-05	0.008	0.0113	-54.57	426428	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2023-12-29	0.008	0.0116	-56.55	262674	Downward Expansion	-67	87
2023-12-22	0.008	0.012	-57.50	1017950	Downward Expansion	-66	87
2023-12-15	0.007	0.0126	-63.78	266075	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2023-12-08	0.008	0.0132	-58.32	1981692	Downward Expansion	-89	83
2023-12-01	0.009	0.0139	-53.42	1090283	Downward Expansion	-81	56
2023-11-24	0.01	0.0144	-49.50	413648	Downward Expansion	-61	37
2023-11-17	0.012	0.0148	-41.06	42000	Downward Expansion	-35	25
2023-11-10	0.012	0.015	-41.90	671793	Downward Expansion	-41	35
2023-11-03	0.011	0.0154	-48.10	514956	Downward Expansion	-48	49
2023-10-27	0.011	0.0159	-48.38	465132	Downward Expansion	-49	50
2023-10-20	0.011	0.0164	-50.73	63599	Downward Expansion	-54	66
2023-10-13	0.011	0.0168	-52.72	50628	Downward Expansion	-65	74

Price vs TrendAbove+13.9%

Trend directionRising+11.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+28.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+33.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+22.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+41.4%

Price momentumPositive+0.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.09×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

41 / ±100

-34.4 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

21 /100

-61.4 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

H2G Directional State ↗ H2G Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance43

Rotation Up29

Upward Expansion62

Deceleration88

Rotation Down29

Downward Expansion16

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 3%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 51%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-02	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-09-04	2026-09-25	New	-23.1%
Rotation Up	2026-08-07	2026-08-28	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-07-31	New	+66.7%
Balance	2026-07-17	2026-07-17	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2026-06-19	2026-07-10	New	+11.1%
Balance	2026-05-15	2026-06-12	Developing	-10.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-05-08	New	-9.1%
Rotation Up	2026-03-13	2026-04-10	Developing	-7.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-31	2026-03-06	Established	-11.1%
Rotation Down	2025-09-19	2025-10-24	Developing	-13.6%
Balance	2025-09-05	2025-09-12	New	-21.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-08-29	Established	+0.0%
Deceleration	2025-05-02	2025-05-23	New	+50.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing41

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution30

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 87/100
Current Relative Strength: 21.98
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +0.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -1.2%
Utilities regime cohort: 100th percentile2 in cohort

Test H2G trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.66×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.09×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore H2G Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.0113falling

Slow Activity AUD 0.0106rising

Trend Reference AUD 0.0105+13.9% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.009345+28.4% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.006shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +13.5%

Annualized volatility +111.9%

From structural high -20.0%

From structural low +100.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	4	+7.2%-2.8% to +40.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+6.7%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	2	+45.4%+10.8% to +80.0%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+39.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	-23.9%-37.8% to -10.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-27.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-35.4%-60.8% to -10.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-42.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

H2G Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map