Weekly structural research ยท SET ยท Financial Services

CREDIT Stage Analysis

Thai Credit Bank Public Company Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close THB 22.90Tenure NewBenchmark ^SET.BK
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 37โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 23/100directional strength
Maturity 72/100lifecycle context
Confidence 95/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +24.2%THB 18.44 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 138 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-2522.9020.0913.573792400Deceleration3723
2026-09-1822.7019.9214.522362100Deceleration4028
2026-09-1122.5019.7712.372219400Deceleration4640
2026-09-0422.7019.5614.243522100Upward Expansion4948
2026-08-2823.4019.3218.592916200Upward Expansion6261
2026-08-2124.0019.0419.62914900Upward Expansion6965
2026-08-1423.3018.7817.351226100Upward Expansion6565
2026-08-0724.2018.4821.692912600Upward Expansion7184
2026-07-3123.7018.1618.751470800Upward Expansion6788
2026-07-2423.3017.8615.752567300Upward Expansion6989
2026-07-1725.2517.5525.995470400Upward Expansion9698
2026-07-1023.7017.2220.021959500Upward Expansion9697
2026-07-0322.2016.9513.29879300Upward Expansion9682
2026-06-2619.2016.752.37342800Upward Expansion6979
2026-06-1919.2016.630.15161000Upward Expansion7284
2026-06-1218.9016.51-2.97200800Upward Expansion6785
2026-06-0519.2016.42-1.27435200Upward Expansion7991
2026-05-2918.9016.31-2.372139600Upward Expansion7686
2026-05-2218.7016.21-2.00723700Upward Expansion7685
2026-05-1518.3016.13-3.201220100Upward Expansion7076
2026-05-0818.4016.04-2.021932800Upward Expansion7570
2026-05-0117.9215.96-4.552969200Balance7055
2026-04-2416.8815.90-8.144765800Balance5525
2026-04-1716.2115.88-13.78526700Balance2915
2026-04-1016.2115.88-15.72844200Balance3015
2026-04-0316.1215.88-13.74943000Balance3118
2026-03-2716.0215.88-14.421573600Rotation Up3418
2026-03-2016.5915.88-11.082130900Rotation Up5028
2026-03-1315.8315.86-14.181195300Rotation Up2639
2026-03-0616.1215.87-13.172054400Rotation Up3150
2026-02-2717.9215.88-11.271649000Rotation Up4862
2026-02-2018.3015.81-6.682424300Downward Expansion4243
2026-02-1316.2115.73-14.61887200Downward Expansion-817
2026-02-0615.2715.70-15.34490300Downward Expansion-3318
2026-01-3015.2715.71-13.801217500Downward Expansion-3921
2026-01-2316.1215.71-8.442129100Downward Expansion-4029
2026-01-1614.2215.69-16.92599600Downward Expansion-7785
2026-01-0914.5115.72-14.01277300Downward Expansion-7381
2026-01-0214.7015.79-13.32108700Downward Expansion-7277
2025-12-2614.0315.87-17.292168800Downward Expansion-9079
2025-12-1915.5515.98-7.95247500Balance-5946
2025-12-1215.6416.04-7.47104400Balance-5844
2025-12-0515.9316.13-7.1457900Balance-4831
2025-11-2815.6416.21-7.5366500Balance-5941
2025-11-2115.7416.27-6.8599500Balance-5626
2025-11-1416.0216.32-6.3298400Balance-4118
2025-11-0715.9316.37-9.51106200Balance-4022
2025-10-3116.1216.41-9.2086200Balance-3420
2025-10-2416.0216.46-10.25702000Balance-3726
2025-10-1715.8316.53-8.87114400Balance-4226
2025-10-1016.0216.60-8.57168800Balance-2917
2025-10-0315.9316.65-9.51133400Balance-2414
2025-09-2616.2116.69-6.87270800Balance-1614
2025-09-1916.3116.70-7.38121300Downward Expansion-2012
2025-09-1216.4016.71-6.90306600Downward Expansion-3117
2025-09-0516.0216.74-7.05258800Downward Expansion-3621
2025-08-2915.8316.79-5.92193500Downward Expansion-3923
2025-08-2216.0216.84-5.89227100Downward Expansion-3523
2025-08-1516.3116.92-4.52157500Downward Expansion-3624
2025-08-0816.31โ€”โ€”391600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0115.74โ€”โ€”165600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2516.02โ€”โ€”523800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1815.45โ€”โ€”116800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1115.45โ€”โ€”62400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0415.36โ€”โ€”70500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2715.27โ€”โ€”159300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2015.27โ€”โ€”310400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1316.59โ€”โ€”135400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0617.07โ€”โ€”89000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3017.26โ€”โ€”104700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2317.54โ€”โ€”142200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1618.30โ€”โ€”371800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0918.21โ€”โ€”520600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0217.39โ€”โ€”151400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2517.48โ€”โ€”115700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1817.48โ€”โ€”105200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1117.11โ€”โ€”162200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0417.66โ€”โ€”80400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2818.03โ€”โ€”51000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2118.03โ€”โ€”190800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1417.48โ€”โ€”90200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0717.11โ€”โ€”161500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2816.37โ€”โ€”232000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2116.83โ€”โ€”346800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1417.29โ€”โ€”95400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0717.29โ€”โ€”364100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-3117.48โ€”โ€”429900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2418.40โ€”โ€”1042900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1717.20โ€”โ€”313300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1016.37โ€”โ€”237900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0317.11โ€”โ€”139400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2716.93โ€”โ€”1057800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2016.37โ€”โ€”1011300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1316.65โ€”โ€”1013000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0617.84โ€”โ€”489700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2918.40โ€”โ€”476900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2218.58โ€”โ€”581100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-1520.79โ€”โ€”583600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0821.34โ€”โ€”1080200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0120.51โ€”โ€”3185300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-2521.16โ€”โ€”4783200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1817.39โ€”โ€”661500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1117.57โ€”โ€”696000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-0418.30โ€”โ€”593600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2718.86โ€”โ€”719000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2018.21โ€”โ€”1636300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-1318.86โ€”โ€”1693600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-0616.56โ€”โ€”1888000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-3015.64โ€”โ€”569400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-2315.73โ€”โ€”509500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1615.64โ€”โ€”66800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0915.36โ€”โ€”228600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0215.82โ€”โ€”53600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-2615.64โ€”โ€”332100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1915.91โ€”โ€”186600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1216.93โ€”โ€”164400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-0516.19โ€”โ€”232900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2816.28โ€”โ€”382200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2115.91โ€”โ€”469200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-1416.28โ€”โ€”1200200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-0717.48โ€”โ€”1203700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-3121.06โ€”โ€”556600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-2421.89โ€”โ€”978900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1723.46โ€”โ€”609400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1023.92โ€”โ€”162500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-0324.38โ€”โ€”938900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-2624.38โ€”โ€”2248600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1925.07โ€”โ€”667600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1225.30โ€”โ€”455400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-0524.84โ€”โ€”839400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-2924.61โ€”โ€”1587000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-2224.38โ€”โ€”946100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-1525.53โ€”โ€”453100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0825.07โ€”โ€”3903700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0125.30โ€”โ€”2232400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-2326.68โ€”โ€”15114200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-1626.45โ€”โ€”46376200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-0925.30โ€”โ€”32110600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+14.0%
Trend directionRising+14.5%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+24.2%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+17.1%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+13.6%
Relative strength directionImproving+11.2%
Price momentumPositive+42.9%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.59ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

37 / ยฑ100

-24.7 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

23 /100

-37.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance36
Rotation Up24
Upward Expansion57
Deceleration91
Rotation Down28
Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-02-09 to 2026-09-25 ยท 59 classified observations out of 138 shown.

Balance 31%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 31%Deceleration 5%Downward Expansion 25%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-09-112026-09-25New+1.8%
Upward Expansion2026-05-082026-09-04Established+23.4%
Balance2026-04-032026-05-01Developing+11.2%
Rotation Up2026-02-272026-03-27Developing-10.6%
Downward Expansion2025-12-262026-02-20Developing+30.4%
Balance2025-09-262025-12-19Established-4.1%
Downward Expansion2025-08-152025-09-19Developing+0.0%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing26
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution45
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2B ยท Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SET.BK

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
91/100
Current Relative Strength
13.57
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+42.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+31.8%
Financial Services regime cohort
63th percentile35 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.03ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.59ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution5 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity THB 22.77falling
Slow Activity THB 21.65rising
Trend Reference THB 20.09+14.0% close margin
Current Fair Value THB 18.44+24.2% close margin
Structural low THB 15.93shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.8%
Annualized volatility +29.4%
From structural high -10.2%
From structural low +64.3%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^SET.BK Regime survived Read
Near term0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context