Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Cyclical

VAC Stage Analysis

Marriot Vacations Worldwide

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 105.34Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 31−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 16/100directional strength

Maturity 55/100lifecycle context

Confidence 92/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +38.9%USD 75.84 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	105.34	91.73	26.01	1386280	Deceleration	31	16
2026-10-02	104.20	90.36	27.05	1511365	Deceleration	31	19
2026-09-25	102.82	89.22	25.89	2168879	Deceleration	32	21
2026-09-18	103.02	87.91	28.45	2505464	Deceleration	37	22
2026-09-11	102.78	86.40	28.58	1594124	Upward Expansion	43	32
2026-09-04	105.79	84.73	31.85	3411889	Upward Expansion	60	50
2026-08-28	109.23	83.02	36.78	2115257	Upward Expansion	64	70
2026-08-21	111.67	81.15	41.16	2587084	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-08-14	120.04	79.31	50.43	2130396	Upward Expansion	82	69
2026-08-07	123.47	77.26	56.19	4056783	Upward Expansion	90	67
2026-07-31	97.51	75.28	28.95	2153960	Upward Expansion	61	51
2026-07-24	94.39	73.95	26.58	1941280	Upward Expansion	64	58
2026-07-17	99.98	72.71	33.29	1865069	Upward Expansion	68	66
2026-07-10	98.31	71.24	29.33	2066009	Upward Expansion	67	80
2026-07-03	100.25	69.83	33.70	1643996	Upward Expansion	74	89
2026-06-26	101.30	68.26	38.31	2488556	Upward Expansion	83	93
2026-06-19	97.97	66.64	31.16	1953533	Upward Expansion	84	93
2026-06-12	93.38	65.01	26.66	2436119	Upward Expansion	84	88
2026-06-05	89.49	63.36	22.57	3588826	Upward Expansion	84	79
2026-05-29	84.88	61.90	13.68	2648400	Upward Expansion	81	61
2026-05-22	74.48	61.19	1.28	2310429	Upward Expansion	61	40
2026-05-15	70.21	60.98	-3.87	2148981	Upward Expansion	58	41
2026-05-08	76.39	60.79	4.40	3088251	Upward Expansion	71	59
2026-05-01	72.06	60.26	0.69	2031263	Upward Expansion	63	53
2026-04-24	71.82	60.07	1.27	2665820	Upward Expansion	65	50
2026-04-17	74.27	59.92	5.38	2128964	Upward Expansion	76	53
2026-04-10	67.32	59.90	-0.02	2176826	Rotation Up	61	42
2026-04-03	66.76	60.11	2.78	2216877	Rotation Up	33	41
2026-03-27	65.46	60.41	4.21	2518540	Rotation Up	33	57
2026-03-20	67.26	60.71	4.48	3321729	Rotation Up	38	57
2026-03-13	64.37	61.00	-1.96	3115697	Rotation Up	21	35
2026-03-06	69.84	61.25	4.45	4266653	Downward Expansion	35	35
2026-02-27	63.66	61.18	-6.99	4811912	Downward Expansion	0	3
2026-02-20	57.67	61.40	-16.59	3255693	Downward Expansion	-43	39
2026-02-13	52.83	62.16	-23.46	2328190	Downward Expansion	-53	56
2026-02-06	54.42	62.94	-22.99	2587104	Balance	-47	34
2026-01-30	53.18	63.79	-25.67	2803964	Balance	-45	20
2026-01-23	56.25	64.57	-21.93	2274762	Balance	-20	17
2026-01-16	58.62	65.05	-19.71	2714006	Balance	-24	21
2026-01-09	64.01	65.27	-13.42	2430682	Downward Expansion	-15	20
2026-01-02	57.62	65.20	-21.43	2254528	Downward Expansion	-35	25
2025-12-26	57.33	65.39	-23.38	2078476	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2025-12-19	55.79	65.57	-25.19	7182128	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2025-12-12	55.94	65.81	-25.70	3772357	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2025-12-05	53.20	66.20	-30.53	2982252	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2025-11-28	52.74	66.46	-31.75	2732741	Downward Expansion	-66	87
2025-11-21	49.06	66.58	-35.02	4221559	Downward Expansion	-72	89
2025-11-14	43.94	66.70	-43.61	4498187	Rotation Down	-92	93
2025-11-07	45.54	66.91	-42.24	4739471	Rotation Down	-65	71
2025-10-31	63.73	67.08	-21.54	2033986	Rotation Down	-29	49
2025-10-24	68.10	66.67	-16.06	2076595	Rotation Down	-22	45
2025-10-17	64.60	66.48	-19.17	1583259	Rotation Down	-24	45
2025-10-10	60.36	66.40	-23.52	1974754	Balance	-37	38
2025-10-03	66.29	66.49	-18.39	2552809	Balance	-1	12
2025-09-26	67.47	66.57	-16.35	1879144	Upward Expansion	24	12
2025-09-19	73.72	66.67	-9.20	3688530	Upward Expansion	51	32
2025-09-12	73.67	66.84	-8.31	1867479	Upward Expansion	53	36
2025-09-05	75.54	67.07	-4.64	1346671	Deceleration	58	37
2025-08-29	74.71	67.22	-5.47	1118764	Deceleration	44	26
2025-08-22	75.84	67.43	-4.16	1799064	Deceleration	48	27
2025-08-15	71.71	67.61	-9.18	2089841	Rotation Up	15	16
2025-08-08	67.74	67.86	-13.48	3045213	Rotation Up	21	24
2025-08-01	70.27	68.20	-8.23	2623095	Rotation Up	37	55
2025-07-25	80.48	68.56	2.24	2183346	Rotation Up	51	78
2025-07-18	76.38	68.70	-1.80	2138427	Rotation Up	33	69
2025-07-11	79.84	68.97	2.86	2814211	Rotation Up	49	73
2025-07-04	76.59	69.22	-1.84	2680196	Balance	44	53
2025-06-27	70.58	69.66	-8.23	7337572	Balance	9	16
2025-06-20	65.36	70.37	-12.52	2735803	Balance	-11	11
2025-06-13	61.95	71.10	-17.65	1881368	Downward Expansion	-18	14
2025-06-06	63.13	71.85	-16.92	2345614	Downward Expansion	-25	26
2025-05-30	62.96	72.70	-16.39	2132291	Downward Expansion	-27	29
2025-05-23	62.86	73.03	-15.70	2780598	Downward Expansion	-32	27
2025-05-16	67.72	73.35	-12.22	3091134	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2025-05-09	61.07	73.54	-17.35	3128324	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2025-05-02	56.31	73.78	-24.86	2745431	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2025-04-25	52.58	74.26	-28.56	4440732	Downward Expansion	-68	82
2025-04-18	50.23	74.87	-29.50	1760180	Downward Expansion	-79	90
2025-04-11	50.51	75.50	-30.97	3839919	Downward Expansion	-85	92
2025-04-04	51.55	76.05	-26.38	3233327	Downward Expansion	-91	95
2025-03-28	62.48	76.53	-19.70	2287865	Rotation Down	-74	88
2025-03-21	62.20	76.71	-22.07	2757566	Rotation Down	-54	80
2025-03-14	62.85	76.89	-21.54	3199548	Rotation Down	-59	75
2025-03-07	68.89	76.98	-16.70	3251319	Rotation Down	-40	57
2025-02-28	70.50	76.81	-17.92	4128739	Deceleration	-38	43
2025-02-21	78.63	76.80	-9.94	3090921	Deceleration	5	8
2025-02-14	80.80	76.79	-9.40	1924807	Deceleration	15	10
2025-02-07	79.88	76.80	-9.39	1497041	Deceleration	14	14
2025-01-31	81.08	76.80	-8.44	1513630	Deceleration	14	17
2025-01-24	81.06	76.60	-9.63	976280	Deceleration	23	23
2025-01-17	79.47	76.57	-10.23	1544267	Deceleration	26	24
2025-01-10	77.75	76.52	-9.87	1415392	Deceleration	28	24
2025-01-03	81.18	76.54	-8.03	1217582	Upward Expansion	42	28
2024-12-27	84.69	76.54	-4.93	552067	Upward Expansion	58	44
2024-12-20	84.33	76.47	-4.97	1973765	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-12-13	87.58	76.51	-3.46	1303889	Upward Expansion	67	79
2024-12-06	89.59	76.57	-2.12	1208445	Rotation Up	71	85
2024-11-29	91.94	76.60	1.16	1510901	Rotation Up	57	81
2024-11-22	87.14	76.48	-2.99	1364717	Rotation Up	43	71
2024-11-15	84.55	76.64	-4.40	1704980	Rotation Up	39	63
2024-11-08	88.56	76.79	-2.16	3956522	Rotation Up	47	43
2024-11-01	72.92	76.78	-15.70	1907518	Balance	-14	14
2024-10-25	72.44	77.38	-17.88	1429965	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2024-10-18	73.51	78.23	-18.14	1934714	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2024-10-11	68.22	78.78	-24.07	1214846	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2024-10-04	70.75	79.50	-21.10	1775404	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2024-09-27	70.86	79.99	-21.49	1412252	Downward Expansion	-44	36
2024-09-20	69.00	80.48	-23.95	2588407	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2024-09-13	67.21	81.03	-25.64	2127037	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2024-09-06	65.73	81.35	-25.15	1700766	Downward Expansion	-68	74
2024-08-30	67.86	81.71	-26.69	1640871	Downward Expansion	-65	82
2024-08-23	67.88	81.98	-27.31	1496801	Downward Expansion	-66	84
2024-08-16	65.28	82.35	-29.95	1787865	Downward Expansion	-78	86
2024-08-09	63.84	82.66	-29.62	2748282	Downward Expansion	-86	79
2024-08-02	70.30	83.06	-23.42	3911750	Downward Expansion	-76	47
2024-07-26	78.37	83.31	-17.25	2542112	Deceleration	-31	27
2024-07-19	81.01	83.25	-16.18	1952674	Rotation Down	-28	28
2024-07-12	79.81	83.20	-20.03	2024181	Rotation Down	-33	45
2024-07-05	75.31	83.16	-24.74	1761325	Rotation Down	-39	61
2024-06-28	80.07	83.06	-19.48	2223985	Rotation Down	-25	54
2024-06-21	78.08	82.70	-22.36	1521984	Rotation Down	-31	52
2024-06-14	78.07	82.40	-22.72	2080830	Deceleration	-32	35
2024-06-07	81.23	82.19	-19.24	3309553	Deceleration	-3	17
2024-05-31	82.78	81.76	-17.67	1516020	Deceleration	17	14
2024-05-24	85.50	81.46	-16.27	1855653	Deceleration	36	19
2024-05-17	89.30	81.20	-13.48	1458335	Deceleration	41	28
2024-05-10	90.50	80.96	-11.74	3015162	Deceleration	43	29
2024-05-03	88.39	80.72	-12.99	1842357	Upward Expansion	43	29
2024-04-26	91.74	80.58	-10.10	1743581	Upward Expansion	61	42
2024-04-19	89.13	80.52	-11.28	2550347	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-04-12	88.22	80.49	-15.84	1944592	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-04-05	91.12	80.58	-15.33	3275423	Upward Expansion	66	81
2024-03-29	97.98	80.61	-10.66	2219097	Rotation Up	91	92
2024-03-22	89.94	80.62	-18.51	2497513	Rotation Up	47	73
2024-03-15	89.73	80.86	-17.74	3928017	Rotation Up	52	72
2024-03-08	85.53	81.11	-22.53	2215700	Rotation Up	29	52
2024-03-01	85.44	81.58	-23.90	2499200	Balance	29	38
2024-02-23	85.59	81.97	-24.19	3627771	Balance	8	12
2024-02-16	76.89	82.90	-31.77	2349777	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2024-02-09	76.50	84.21	-33.43	1725655	Downward Expansion	-33	20
2024-02-02	75.85	85.46	-34.15	2153535	Downward Expansion	-35	22
2024-01-26	78.96	86.62	-31.58	2728983	Downward Expansion	-24	17
2024-01-19	74.74	87.62	-35.56	2144563	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2024-01-12	75.78	88.69	-34.88	2211652	Downward Expansion	-33	20
2024-01-05	77.72	89.92	-32.92	2420328	Downward Expansion	-34	26
2023-12-29	76.59	91.16	-35.69	1731017	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2023-12-22	79.63	92.43	-33.68	3162162	Downward Expansion	-46	35
2023-12-15	78.50	93.49	-34.74	4855827	Downward Expansion	-53	49
2023-12-08	72.32	94.58	-39.13	3943427	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2023-12-01	69.32	95.80	-42.19	5310226	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2023-11-24	68.98	97.31	-42.75	2362244	Downward Expansion	-76	88
2023-11-17	71.75	98.97	-40.60	3448682	Downward Expansion	-73	88
2023-11-10	68.36	100.66	-42.78	3423298	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2023-11-03	73.69	102.39	-38.21	4829528	Downward Expansion	-86	91
2023-10-27	77.86	103.77	-31.65	2938119	Downward Expansion	-82	81
2023-10-20	82.11	105.14	-30.42	3430224	Downward Expansion	-76	72

Price vs TrendAbove+14.8%

Trend directionRising+21.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+38.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+7.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+26.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-3.3%

Price momentumPositive+56.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.85×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

31 / ±100

-12.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

16 /100

-15.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

VAC Directional State ↗ VAC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance55

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion52

Deceleration93

Rotation Down26

Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 13%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	+2.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-09-11	Established	+38.4%
Rotation Up	2026-03-13	2026-04-10	Developing	+4.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-03-06	New	+32.2%
Balance	2026-01-16	2026-02-06	New	-7.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-01-09	Developing	+30.5%
Rotation Down	2025-10-17	2025-11-14	Developing	-32.0%
Balance	2025-10-03	2025-10-10	New	-8.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-09-26	New	-8.4%
Deceleration	2025-08-22	2025-09-05	New	-0.4%
Rotation Up	2025-07-11	2025-08-15	Developing	-10.2%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-07-04	New	+17.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-06-13	Developing	+20.2%
Rotation Down	2025-03-07	2025-03-28	New	-9.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 81/100
Current Relative Strength: 26.01
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +56.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +41.6%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 65th percentile43 in cohort

Test VAC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.60×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.85×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore VAC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 104.05falling

Slow Activity USD 99.95rising

Trend Reference USD 91.73+14.8% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 75.84+38.9% close margin

Structural low USD 64.52shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +10.3%

Annualized volatility +47.3%

From structural high -19.8%

From structural low +144.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	8	-8.1%-13.8% to +2.7%	+12.5%	+12.5%	-10.6%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	-32.2%-35.3% to -8.8%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-29.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	-13.1%-27.2% to +2.7%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-24.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-32.2%-32.5% to +47.2%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-42.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

VAC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map