Weekly structural research · NYSE · Basic Materials

NEU Stage Analysis

NewMarket Corporation

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 898.04Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 47−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 39/100directional strength

Maturity 68/100lifecycle context

Confidence 92/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +43.7%USD 624.89 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	898.04	765.50	10.79	617515	Deceleration	47	39
2026-09-18	891.87	756.25	11.25	611339	Upward Expansion	48	43
2026-09-11	884.08	746.70	10.07	508161	Upward Expansion	62	56
2026-09-04	882.01	736.82	8.76	619143	Upward Expansion	66	79
2026-08-28	911.60	731.34	12.32	549297	Upward Expansion	66	87
2026-08-21	934.17	723.12	15.46	544218	Upward Expansion	76	90
2026-08-14	958.67	713.44	16.86	644419	Upward Expansion	89	93
2026-08-07	889.71	702.73	8.72	743671	Deceleration	82	73
2026-07-31	850.16	696.98	7.53	751732	Deceleration	75	50
2026-07-24	779.33	691.37	-0.32	622887	Deceleration	42	34
2026-07-17	770.23	688.83	-2.15	545571	Deceleration	45	37
2026-07-10	763.91	687.26	-4.66	463200	Upward Expansion	58	47
2026-07-03	786.60	686.56	-0.75	424176	Upward Expansion	63	65
2026-06-26	792.82	685.56	1.99	662374	Upward Expansion	65	81
2026-06-19	780.18	684.27	-2.07	437258	Upward Expansion	67	85
2026-06-12	830.27	682.72	5.11	435592	Rotation Up	89	94
2026-06-05	787.23	680.85	0.30	581868	Rotation Up	57	76
2026-05-29	770.74	680.19	-4.26	538576	Rotation Up	49	66
2026-05-22	735.01	679.78	-7.47	457294	Balance	41	54
2026-05-15	680.34	680.03	-13.78	413238	Balance	3	22
2026-05-08	682.40	682.79	-13.59	424660	Balance	0	15
2026-05-01	666.43	685.84	-13.92	449932	Balance	-8	13
2026-04-24	694.32	691.47	-9.75	818158	Downward Expansion	-10	12
2026-04-17	632.06	695.65	-17.57	605293	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2026-04-10	626.43	701.44	-14.87	596009	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2026-04-03	633.53	708.04	-11.00	407382	Downward Expansion	-54	39
2026-03-27	625.03	713.61	-9.35	645965	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2026-03-20	612.29	719.90	-13.18	836242	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2026-03-13	579.65	725.63	-19.28	837529	Downward Expansion	-75	64
2026-03-06	635.82	731.44	-12.85	862874	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2026-02-27	620.64	734.46	-16.61	747298	Downward Expansion	-65	55
2026-02-20	605.20	736.73	-19.15	638005	Downward Expansion	-76	58
2026-02-13	587.72	739.72	-20.63	887763	Downward Expansion	-83	59
2026-02-06	717.69	744.08	-4.35	801692	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2026-01-30	665.04	743.98	-11.24	724574	Downward Expansion	-64	76
2026-01-23	643.81	746.00	-13.51	520529	Downward Expansion	-78	83
2026-01-16	637.35	747.06	-14.48	846957	Rotation Down	-86	82
2026-01-09	717.22	747.17	-3.92	779942	Rotation Down	-34	58
2026-01-02	681.85	744.45	-6.85	649766	Rotation Down	-49	61
2025-12-26	703.06	742.78	-4.68	369526	Deceleration	-34	42
2025-12-19	723.13	740.39	-0.31	640503	Deceleration	-25	27
2025-12-12	742.90	737.20	2.89	587330	Deceleration	1	12
2025-12-05	756.77	733.68	4.60	551618	Deceleration	9	11
2025-11-28	753.92	729.18	5.01	316359	Deceleration	9	10
2025-11-21	733.59	724.56	6.41	217413	Deceleration	-1	10
2025-11-14	774.34	719.74	10.61	294840	Deceleration	16	16
2025-11-07	767.56	712.35	10.27	385858	Deceleration	25	24
2025-10-31	758.23	705.18	7.61	370382	Deceleration	29	28
2025-10-24	742.47	697.72	6.52	279443	Deceleration	36	23
2025-10-17	763.23	691.01	12.00	314408	Upward Expansion	48	40
2025-10-10	773.79	682.92	16.10	578598	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-10-03	835.39	674.20	23.00	487183	Upward Expansion	77	70
2025-09-26	819.70	664.09	22.83	411912	Upward Expansion	71	68
2025-09-19	805.98	655.30	21.10	477533	Upward Expansion	68	76
2025-09-12	824.24	646.26	26.05	416185	Upward Expansion	81	91
2025-09-05	800.55	636.41	25.04	369857	Upward Expansion	76	89
2025-08-29	813.86	626.49	28.22	650032	Upward Expansion	89	87
2025-08-22	784.06	615.55	24.12	535847	Upward Expansion	88	73
2025-08-15	754.07	605.57	20.27	382136	Upward Expansion	85	70
2025-08-08	726.47	596.54	17.48	340661	Upward Expansion	79	68
2025-08-01	688.77	588.02	14.47	446080	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-07-25	694.88	581.53	12.91	361665	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-07-18	718.35	575.65	18.69	360035	Upward Expansion	78	92
2025-07-11	714.94	568.72	19.31	446166	Upward Expansion	85	93
2025-07-04	725.60	562.41	21.26	543813	Upward Expansion	95	89
2025-06-27	675.56	555.61	15.43	1199621	Upward Expansion	86	71
2025-06-20	640.68	550.35	13.66	900606	Upward Expansion	71	63
2025-06-13	635.69	546.55	12.91	1418190	Upward Expansion	70	65
2025-06-06	631.69	543.14	12.08	734649	Upward Expansion	69	80
2025-05-30	631.14	540.11	14.01	161926	Upward Expansion	70	87
2025-05-23	627.58	536.23	15.58	171204	Upward Expansion	71	88
2025-05-16	637.25	532.74	14.58	201537	Upward Expansion	84	93
2025-05-09	621.75	528.48	17.85	153574	Upward Expansion	83	88
2025-05-02	615.39	524.75	16.26	233346	Upward Expansion	86	83
2025-04-25	588.92	521.35	14.62	182255	Upward Expansion	80	72
2025-04-18	552.72	519.60	12.65	137356	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-04-11	552.32	518.65	10.75	307485	Balance	63	39
2025-04-04	534.54	518.19	13.04	266497	Balance	24	16
2025-03-28	541.09	517.61	3.83	268729	Balance	31	19
2025-03-21	520.76	518.05	-1.96	499288	Rotation Up	14	19
2025-03-14	512.08	518.82	-3.59	229451	Rotation Up	14	27
2025-03-07	532.12	519.44	-2.65	291277	Rotation Up	21	35
2025-02-28	555.80	519.29	-1.92	189141	Balance	38	40
2025-02-21	534.77	518.50	-7.07	172013	Balance	-5	18
2025-02-14	528.83	518.77	-10.14	229382	Downward Expansion	-18	12
2025-02-07	503.08	518.51	-13.75	201720	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2025-01-31	485.52	519.02	-17.41	162950	Downward Expansion	-62	70
2025-01-24	484.74	519.23	-18.93	102900	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2025-01-17	483.15	519.67	-18.30	167444	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2025-01-10	470.81	520.41	-18.65	155782	Balance	-79	73
2025-01-03	494.10	521.58	-16.84	133237	Balance	-40	44
2024-12-27	518.59	522.27	-13.68	134452	Balance	-17	20
2024-12-20	510.50	522.13	-14.87	343749	Balance	-25	19
2024-12-13	525.61	522.52	-14.40	163649	Balance	18	9
2024-12-06	521.44	522.66	-16.04	134755	Balance	23	9
2024-11-29	517.81	523.38	-16.36	130130	Balance	24	15
2024-11-22	526.63	523.65	-14.36	110705	Balance	31	18
2024-11-15	533.39	523.07	-12.18	112072	Balance	33	18
2024-11-08	540.86	524.08	-13.10	92120	Balance	17	8
2024-11-01	514.76	525.05	-13.67	107476	Balance	-40	34
2024-10-25	522.74	527.71	-13.84	142650	Balance	-40	33
2024-10-18	509.52	530.63	-17.14	95048	Balance	-43	34
2024-10-11	509.73	533.70	-16.63	138791	Balance	-45	26
2024-10-04	513.67	536.67	-15.22	115072	Balance	-38	19
2024-09-27	536.42	539.19	-11.45	141432	Balance	-21	13
2024-09-20	524.18	541.87	-13.12	339160	Balance	-25	11
2024-09-13	538.36	544.57	-9.68	202703	Balance	-7	10
2024-09-06	517.11	545.72	-9.81	80611	Balance	-18	15
2024-08-30	554.36	547.38	-7.36	106424	Balance	9	19
2024-08-23	543.99	547.66	-8.88	66726	Balance	-0	12
2024-08-16	530.55	547.40	-9.92	118946	Downward Expansion	-12	18
2024-08-09	527.52	548.73	-6.97	117018	Downward Expansion	-24	23
2024-08-02	532.28	549.33	-6.15	151448	Downward Expansion	-28	25
2024-07-26	542.87	549.22	-6.29	147703	Downward Expansion	-31	20
2024-07-19	521.07	548.54	-10.71	107753	Downward Expansion	-48	37
2024-07-12	518.20	548.95	-12.92	134806	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2024-07-05	491.86	549.57	-16.55	140693	Downward Expansion	-74	70
2024-06-28	498.13	550.64	-13.93	217187	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2024-06-21	505.14	551.02	-12.70	273295	Rotation Down	-71	72
2024-06-14	505.99	550.79	-11.93	153335	Rotation Down	-46	63
2024-06-07	514.69	550.19	-8.87	161517	Rotation Down	-43	55
2024-05-31	514.52	548.93	-7.63	166757	Rotation Down	-45	47
2024-05-24	522.16	547.37	-6.52	134862	Rotation Down	-32	57
2024-05-17	529.98	545.01	-4.99	197386	Rotation Down	-27	50
2024-05-10	542.97	541.56	-0.89	131505	Rotation Down	-22	39
2024-05-03	525.88	537.83	-1.99	194108	Rotation Down	-14	36
2024-04-26	509.07	534.89	-4.37	281611	Rotation Down	-16	27
2024-04-19	563.82	532.39	8.87	188681	Deceleration	38	23
2024-04-12	569.97	528.16	7.24	210836	Upward Expansion	45	37
2024-04-05	594.52	523.52	10.75	178658	Upward Expansion	61	52
2024-03-29	610.24	518.12	13.30	150721	Upward Expansion	70	60
2024-03-22	601.82	512.72	12.80	142477	Upward Expansion	66	63
2024-03-15	598.82	507.06	15.38	306244	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-03-08	589.35	501.83	14.20	185399	Upward Expansion	67	71
2024-03-01	616.67	496.98	19.94	205600	Upward Expansion	86	87
2024-02-23	605.17	490.88	19.71	163299	Upward Expansion	88	74
2024-02-16	572.77	484.90	16.03	206150	Upward Expansion	74	66
2024-02-09	566.99	479.66	15.24	166002	Upward Expansion	75	68
2024-02-02	562.86	474.41	16.72	279909	Upward Expansion	76	68
2024-01-26	536.05	469.01	13.42	234706	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-01-19	570.52	463.87	22.69	197573	Upward Expansion	88	72
2024-01-12	545.53	457.50	19.59	201069	Upward Expansion	78	68
2024-01-05	528.85	452.17	18.87	273808	Upward Expansion	67	66
2023-12-29	522.75	447.17	16.39	149328	Upward Expansion	68	77
2023-12-22	533.19	442.62	19.92	160102	Upward Expansion	76	89
2023-12-15	536.87	437.35	22.75	480347	Upward Expansion	87	94
2023-12-08	523.85	431.99	23.64	267511	Upward Expansion	87	95
2023-12-01	509.62	426.97	21.53	213364	Upward Expansion	85	93
2023-11-24	498.11	422.49	20.69	119121	Upward Expansion	83	92
2023-11-17	488.23	418.46	20.37	191917	Upward Expansion	82	87
2023-11-10	476.81	413.80	21.16	150613	Upward Expansion	81	73
2023-11-03	467.77	409.48	21.42	241309	Upward Expansion	77	51
2023-10-27	451.17	405.30	24.83	229516	Deceleration	68	40
2023-10-20	426.49	401.74	15.97	171994	Deceleration	40	27
2023-10-13	431.19	398.69	15.03	96025	Deceleration	45	36
2023-10-06	437.60	395.16	17.76	107859	Deceleration	50	40

Price vs TrendAbove+17.3%

Trend directionRising+11.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+43.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+9.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+10.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+8.8%

Price momentumPositive+43.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.94×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

47 / ±100

-19.9 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

39 /100

-48.0 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NEU Directional State ↗ NEU Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance28

Rotation Up37

Upward Expansion66

Deceleration88

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 39%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 17%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-25	2026-09-25	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-09-18	Developing	-7.0%
Deceleration	2026-07-17	2026-08-07	New	+15.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-07-10	New	-2.1%
Rotation Up	2026-05-29	2026-06-12	New	+7.7%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-05-22	New	+10.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-04-24	Established	+7.8%
Rotation Down	2026-01-02	2026-01-16	New	-6.5%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-12-26	Developing	-5.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-10-17	Extended	+38.1%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-04-11	New	+2.1%
Rotation Up	2025-03-07	2025-03-21	New	-2.1%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-02-28	New	+3.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-17	2025-02-14	Developing	+9.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing21

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution50

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 92/100
Current Relative Strength: 10.79
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +43.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +21.7%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 92th percentile12 in cohort

Test NEU trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.11×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.94×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution6 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NEU Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 892.37falling

Slow Activity USD 822.94rising

Trend Reference USD 765.50+17.3% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 624.89+43.7% close margin

Structural low USD 605.35shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.8%

Annualized volatility +28.6%

From structural high -8.2%

From structural low +56.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	-1.2%-11.9% to +24.5%	+36.4%	+36.4%	+0.9%	+36.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	-3.3%-13.3% to +20.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.6%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+10.2%-9.6% to +35.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+14.5%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-2.0%-8.8% to +84.0%	+33.3%	+33.3%	+5.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NEU Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map