Weekly structural research · SHZ · Technology

300242 Stage Analysis

Jiayun Technology Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 3.91Tenure EstablishedBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -62−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 64/100directional strength

Maturity 41/100lifecycle context

Confidence 91/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -4.6%CNY 4.10 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	3.91	4.52	-11.30	49465402	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2026-09-25	3.83	4.56	-15.99	63653003	Downward Expansion	-71	70
2026-09-18	3.88	4.62	-17.11	53558699	Downward Expansion	-71	70
2026-09-11	3.97	4.68	-14.38	77241022	Downward Expansion	-68	69
2026-09-04	4.16	4.75	-10.84	94862366	Downward Expansion	-59	62
2026-08-28	4.05	4.81	-16.13	11948833	Downward Expansion	-67	54
2026-08-21	4.03	4.89	-17.84	12403378	Downward Expansion	-68	40
2026-08-14	4.35	4.94	-13.43	24682924	Downward Expansion	-43	26
2026-08-07	4.46	4.98	-11.50	30511300	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2026-07-31	4.52	4.99	-6.04	65610198	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2026-07-24	4.35	5.01	-11.23	0	Downward Expansion	-59	55
2026-07-17	4.13	5.04	-15.80	19576600	Downward Expansion	-73	71
2026-07-10	4.47	5.08	-17.60	23376700	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2026-07-03	4.43	5.11	-21.80	23518600	Downward Expansion	-63	65
2026-06-26	4.22	5.15	-27.05	22208800	Downward Expansion	-72	65
2026-06-19	4.71	5.18	-20.55	95107800	Balance	-53	36
2026-06-12	4.69	5.20	-15.94	26869100	Balance	-52	25
2026-06-05	4.71	5.20	-18.07	54312325	Balance	-42	19
2026-05-29	5.00	5.21	-15.03	156502400	Balance	-28	18
2026-05-22	5.30	5.19	-10.50	235184374	Deceleration	-22	17
2026-05-15	4.90	5.15	-17.43	97411900	Deceleration	-39	23
2026-05-08	4.98	5.12	-16.57	55245800	Deceleration	-14	16
2026-05-01	4.91	5.10	-15.66	76892200	Rotation Down	-26	23
2026-04-24	4.69	5.07	-18.83	94147805	Rotation Down	-32	36
2026-04-17	4.82	5.06	-16.65	100622999	Rotation Down	-21	40
2026-04-10	4.86	5.05	-12.90	109483004	Rotation Down	-23	44
2026-04-03	4.39	5.03	-15.98	78814300	Balance	-36	50
2026-03-27	4.79	5.03	-11.56	105445100	Balance	-25	30
2026-03-20	4.84	5.03	-11.86	94161900	Balance	5	16
2026-03-13	5.13	5.02	-9.87	100807297	Upward Expansion	20	16
2026-03-06	5.28	5.00	-7.09	180717697	Upward Expansion	35	19
2026-02-27	5.60	4.98	-4.12	103470000	Upward Expansion	53	35
2026-02-13	5.79	4.95	1.52	192058634	Upward Expansion	59	58
2026-02-06	5.92	4.91	4.74	227590400	Upward Expansion	60	61
2026-01-30	6.07	4.87	4.94	382581491	Upward Expansion	67	64
2026-01-23	6.46	4.82	9.78	491850312	Deceleration	80	56
2026-01-16	5.44	4.76	-6.60	414739838	Deceleration	48	27
2026-01-09	5.44	4.73	-5.99	198568220	Deceleration	50	27
2026-01-02	5.00	4.70	-9.85	67463100	Upward Expansion	42	27
2025-12-26	5.05	4.68	-9.55	110938823	Upward Expansion	57	39
2025-12-19	5.13	4.66	-5.09	170152700	Upward Expansion	63	51
2025-12-12	5.53	4.63	0.70	193306700	Upward Expansion	74	80
2025-12-05	5.33	4.59	-2.92	122021961	Upward Expansion	69	81
2025-11-28	5.62	4.56	2.91	269761677	Upward Expansion	88	88
2025-11-21	5.14	4.51	-2.74	229742400	Upward Expansion	72	77
2025-11-14	5.20	4.47	-6.76	188013012	Balance	79	60
2025-11-07	4.81	4.43	-15.27	131473035	Balance	43	33
2025-10-31	4.75	4.40	-16.57	168735766	Balance	17	12
2025-10-24	4.57	4.38	-19.15	132486292	Rotation Down	-14	17
2025-10-17	4.05	4.39	-25.04	79685809	Rotation Down	-42	56
2025-10-10	4.12	4.42	-27.66	37754512	Rotation Down	-32	51
2025-10-03	4.18	4.46	-27.64	31869100	Balance	-39	52
2025-09-26	4.22	4.50	-25.35	87462085	Balance	-53	52
2025-09-19	4.30	4.52	-23.17	130881181	Balance	-47	35
2025-09-12	4.38	4.55	-20.69	105053203	Balance	-39	20
2025-09-05	4.37	4.59	-18.66	131113725	Balance	-28	13
2025-08-29	4.48	4.61	-17.06	151333617	Balance	1	3
2025-08-22	4.77	4.61	-7.50	151597624	Balance	26	15
2025-08-15	4.55	4.61	-7.13	119954312	Balance	-20	10
2025-08-08	4.58	4.62	-1.69	107516300	Balance	-8	8
2025-08-01	4.64	4.60	1.66	124571750	Balance	13	15
2025-07-25	4.59	4.57	-0.15	83169600	Balance	12	20
2025-07-18	4.64	4.57	4.21	98182900	Balance	15	23
2025-07-11	4.70	4.60	8.90	103737100	Balance	17	17
2025-07-04	4.59	4.66	9.42	113108806	Balance	-8	12
2025-06-27	4.76	4.71	16.01	165393013	Balance	-1	10
2025-06-20	4.37	4.72	11.96	191444925	Balance	-26	16
2025-06-13	4.59	4.72	17.68	228703437	Balance	-26	17
2025-06-06	4.51	4.74	16.41	72146200	Downward Expansion	-33	19
2025-05-30	4.37	4.76	15.86	93959100	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-05-23	4.22	4.74	12.12	94246303	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-05-16	4.35	4.73	16.18	117261896	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2025-05-09	4.33	4.70	17.18	116252999	Rotation Down	-58	58
2025-05-02	4.12	4.67	15.02	64183999	Rotation Down	-36	61
2025-04-25	3.93	4.66	10.35	78243698	Rotation Down	-41	64
2025-04-18	3.97	4.64	13.79	125945418	Deceleration	-39	56
2025-04-11	3.92	4.58	12.70	172665200	Deceleration	-27	27
2025-04-04	4.25	4.53	16.64	78281349	Deceleration	9	9
2025-03-28	4.77	4.46	28.61	125041250	Deceleration	32	18
2025-03-21	5.06	4.38	36.12	193123414	Deceleration	49	27
2025-03-14	5.27	4.28	39.04	256621964	Deceleration	53	30
2025-03-07	5.27	4.18	42.17	257166004	Deceleration	53	38
2025-02-28	5.03	4.07	40.16	320905809	Deceleration	40	33
2025-02-21	5.12	3.97	39.08	292970711	Deceleration	41	28
2025-02-14	5.50	3.86	54.06	507374231	Deceleration	48	28
2025-02-07	4.93	3.73	42.67	204765598	Deceleration	36	21
2025-01-31	4.52	3.63	37.20	51686760	Deceleration	27	14
2025-01-24	4.76	3.55	42.87	499193439	Deceleration	25	19
2025-01-17	4.93	3.45	50.29	663816581	Deceleration	28	24
2025-01-10	3.89	3.34	23.47	192536602	Deceleration	26	23
2025-01-03	3.85	3.27	20.77	166516700	Upward Expansion	39	28
2024-12-27	4.46	3.20	29.69	304505933	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-12-20	5.74	3.12	66.90	405593050	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-12-13	6.36	3.00	84.45	844462045	Upward Expansion	81	67
2024-12-06	6.06	2.88	75.76	448502963	Upward Expansion	82	70
2024-11-29	5.10	2.76	51.06	429167787	Upward Expansion	72	64
2024-11-22	4.53	2.68	36.29	393457512	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-11-15	5.08	2.62	47.62	481197294	Upward Expansion	82	78
2024-11-08	5.20	2.52	46.55	448134555	Upward Expansion	91	76
2024-11-01	3.60	2.44	9.05	358374184	Upward Expansion	66	64
2024-10-25	3.90	2.42	16.46	418601854	Upward Expansion	77	88
2024-10-18	3.67	2.40	12.55	378581306	Rotation Up	77	88
2024-10-11	3.40	2.39	7.49	380641838	Rotation Up	47	74
2024-10-04	3.77	2.37	13.90	127335915	Rotation Up	66	81
2024-09-27	3.15	2.34	5.52	414562769	Balance	48	61
2024-09-20	2.29	2.33	-9.54	136462631	Balance	-1	21
2024-09-13	2.45	2.35	-2.37	292042802	Balance	9	20
2024-09-06	2.28	2.33	-10.88	238411501	Balance	-1	15
2024-08-30	2.26	2.35	-14.16	187343451	Downward Expansion	-6	12
2024-08-23	2.04	2.39	-21.15	355915794	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2024-08-16	2.18	2.45	-17.94	282536000	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2024-08-09	1.99	2.50	-25.77	177948850	Downward Expansion	-42	33
2024-08-02	1.99	2.56	-27.49	256943912	Downward Expansion	-46	38
2024-07-26	1.90	2.63	-31.45	162598916	Downward Expansion	-49	42
2024-07-19	1.72	2.70	-40.39	134575549	Downward Expansion	-71	57
2024-07-12	1.91	2.79	-33.88	340412130	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2024-07-05	2.05	2.88	-28.15	179993610	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-06-28	1.67	2.97	-42.74	99643900	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2024-06-21	1.70	3.08	-43.56	89940000	Downward Expansion	-75	87
2024-06-14	1.83	3.20	-41.03	105715608	Downward Expansion	-73	85
2024-06-07	1.80	3.25	-42.47	170357100	Downward Expansion	-80	83
2024-05-31	2.04	3.31	-36.00	91337300	Downward Expansion	-77	76
2024-05-24	2.14	3.35	-33.65	229202612	Downward Expansion	-75	60
2024-05-17	2.66	3.38	-20.56	156547918	Downward Expansion	-56	45
2024-05-10	2.62	3.41	-22.30	126002259	Downward Expansion	-58	57
2024-05-03	2.64	3.43	-20.88	77498568	Downward Expansion	-58	56
2024-04-26	2.54	3.45	-23.13	166221304	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2024-04-19	2.33	3.48	-28.42	268569194	Downward Expansion	-70	45
2024-04-12	2.63	3.51	-19.14	174735715	Downward Expansion	-52	28
2024-04-05	3.00	3.54	-11.18	198365896	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2024-03-29	3.33	3.54	-0.11	585128680	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2024-03-22	3.25	3.54	-4.19	256552402	Downward Expansion	-44	33
2024-03-15	2.91	3.56	-14.64	171757900	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2024-03-08	2.78	3.59	-16.44	151113750	Downward Expansion	-64	78
2024-03-01	2.87	3.61	-14.40	321750251	Rotation Down	-66	81
2024-02-23	2.89	3.63	-10.41	344133339	Rotation Down	-39	69
2024-02-09	2.05	3.64	-34.67	254079284	Rotation Down	-54	70
2024-02-02	2.77	3.69	-3.77	122014989	Deceleration	-45	45
2024-01-26	3.58	3.71	14.68	114987900	Deceleration	-21	24
2024-01-19	3.67	3.70	17.99	85244600	Deceleration	11	20
2024-01-12	3.80	3.71	20.12	87183000	Deceleration	20	23
2024-01-05	3.85	3.71	20.85	87326800	Deceleration	31	24
2023-12-29	3.95	3.70	19.47	136330600	Upward Expansion	41	24
2023-12-22	4.07	3.68	28.06	181928100	Upward Expansion	58	44
2023-12-15	4.48	3.66	39.74	195739027	Upward Expansion	65	75
2023-12-08	4.51	3.65	39.59	367257305	Upward Expansion	68	85
2023-12-01	4.77	3.63	46.60	422898401	Upward Expansion	73	87
2023-11-24	4.86	3.60	49.16	1059202943	Rotation Up	83	87
2023-11-17	5.24	3.57	60.46	374841547	Rotation Up	61	71
2023-11-10	3.54	3.53	10.01	216330300	Downward Expansion	-20	9
2023-11-03	3.49	3.55	10.26	187678600	Downward Expansion	-30	18
2023-10-27	3.15	3.57	0.87	105796224	Downward Expansion	-59	33
2023-10-20	3.26	3.61	6.96	91632086	Downward Expansion	-52	27
2023-10-13	3.35	3.63	5.00	51250343	Downward Expansion	-47	28
2023-09-29	3.39	3.65	6.27	39627306	Downward Expansion	-49	30
2023-09-22	3.33	3.67	4.09	47360657	Downward Expansion	-52	39

Price vs TrendBelow-13.4%

Trend directionFalling-9.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-4.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-14.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+10.5%

Price momentumNegative-10.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.87×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-62 / ±100

-3.4 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

64 /100

+1.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

300242 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance13

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion13

Deceleration41

Rotation Down64

Downward Expansion86

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 19%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 33%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-10-02	Established	-7.3%
Balance	2026-05-29	2026-06-19	New	-5.8%
Deceleration	2026-05-08	2026-05-22	New	+6.4%
Rotation Down	2026-04-10	2026-05-01	New	+1.0%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-04-03	New	-9.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-03-13	Developing	-15.5%
Deceleration	2026-01-09	2026-01-23	New	+18.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-01-02	Developing	-2.7%
Balance	2025-10-31	2025-11-14	New	+9.5%
Rotation Down	2025-10-10	2025-10-24	New	+10.9%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-10-03	Established	-8.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-06-06	New	+3.7%
Rotation Down	2025-04-25	2025-05-09	New	+10.2%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-04-18	Established	+2.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution21

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 84/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.30
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -10.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -7.4%
Technology regime cohort: 81th percentile296 in cohort

Test 300242 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.87×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.87×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 300242 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 3.91falling

Slow Activity CNY 4.33falling

Trend Reference CNY 4.52-13.4% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 4.10-4.6% close margin

Structural low CNY 3.79shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +7.7%

Annualized volatility +35.2%

From structural high -42.9%

From structural low +3.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	25	-0.6%-22.7% to +54.3%	+48.0%	+52.0%	+0.4%	+76.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	-3.3%-35.3% to +26.7%	+40.0%	+50.0%	+6.6%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-12.8%-20.6% to +33.6%	+33.3%	+66.7%	+0.7%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+19.7%-26.2% to +43.5%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+11.6%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

300242 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map