Weekly structural research ยท JPX ยท Technology

5026 Stage Analysis

Tripleize Co.,Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 611.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^N225
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Balance ยท Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction -3โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 5/100directional strength
Maturity 13/100lifecycle context
Confidence 50/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -35.7%JPY 950.62 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25611.00603.03-22.4144200Balance-35
2026-09-18577.00607.57-26.7481100Balance-2013
2026-09-11588.00613.07-25.78248600Balance-916
2026-09-04616.00619.50-25.10114400Balance-215
2026-08-28614.00624.00-28.64106600Balance-58
2026-08-21603.00627.53-31.2612000Downward Expansion-3220
2026-08-14590.00633.30-37.0814300Downward Expansion-4027
2026-08-07564.00639.17-38.4514900Downward Expansion-4528
2026-07-31562.00644.70-38.9932900Downward Expansion-4423
2026-07-24587.00649.20-38.0725000Downward Expansion-3722
2026-07-17598.00652.87-37.9093500Downward Expansion-4432
2026-07-10596.00656.03-43.4114300Downward Expansion-6053
2026-07-03579.00659.70-47.6713600Downward Expansion-6476
2026-06-26532.00665.33-52.736000Downward Expansion-7281
2026-06-19536.00672.57-54.7573000Downward Expansion-7573
2026-06-12517.00678.47-53.9124000Downward Expansion-8160
2026-06-05625.00686.07-45.9226900Downward Expansion-4226
2026-05-29631.00690.67-46.15141000Downward Expansion-4022
2026-05-22641.00695.33-43.71120000Downward Expansion-4328
2026-05-15612.00701.13-45.52147000Downward Expansion-5034
2026-05-08655.00707.87-43.8594100Downward Expansion-4532
2026-05-01606.00716.33-46.15114100Downward Expansion-6142
2026-04-24607.00727.20-47.17252100Downward Expansion-6344
2026-04-17624.00740.23-45.51498800Downward Expansion-6047
2026-04-10643.00753.33-43.31179700Downward Expansion-6366
2026-04-03608.00766.80-43.60151300Downward Expansion-6875
2026-03-27607.00783.03-44.76166300Downward Expansion-7275
2026-03-20612.00800.50-45.24128300Downward Expansion-7468
2026-03-13653.00819.63-43.01206900Balance-6643
2026-03-06697.00834.30-42.10245200Balance-4725
2026-02-27747.00848.13-42.36133200Balance-2213
2026-02-20742.00860.43-41.82259800Balance-2416
2026-02-13781.00872.83-39.87496300Downward Expansion-2314
2026-02-06751.00883.33-40.23131400Downward Expansion-3823
2026-01-30720.00904.20-42.49106200Downward Expansion-4630
2026-01-23776.00916.13-39.45213100Downward Expansion-4433
2026-01-16766.00928.20-41.14344800Downward Expansion-5146
2026-01-09730.00936.73-42.46132200Downward Expansion-6460
2026-01-02697.00946.30-44.1053100Downward Expansion-6664
2025-12-26697.00955.07-45.13195400Downward Expansion-6964
2025-12-19693.00964.50-44.67123600Downward Expansion-7366
2025-12-12706.00974.07-45.74264100Downward Expansion-7476
2025-12-05748.00983.40-42.83238100Downward Expansion-6679
2025-11-28749.00991.50-43.1267300Downward Expansion-6886
2025-11-21713.001,000.20-44.7695900Downward Expansion-7990
2025-11-14745.001,009.80-45.1681900Downward Expansion-7689
2025-11-07763.001,017.77-44.55109100Downward Expansion-7790
2025-10-31771.001,026.37-46.98176000Downward Expansion-8191
2025-10-24815.001,030.80-41.24232700Rotation Down-8088
2025-10-17814.001,040.37-39.88552000Rotation Down-5874
2025-10-10909.001,050.63-34.44317600Rotation Down-3252
2025-10-03932.001,057.90-30.32177000Balance-2638
2025-09-26998.001,066.57-25.72149100Balance-1620
2025-09-191,017.001,076.07-24.86187500Balance-1211
2025-09-121,047.001,083.77-23.34294500Balance2310
2025-09-051,095.001,090.47-17.89305300Balance55
2025-08-291,131.001,093.30-15.72833700Balance67
2025-08-221,186.001,095.37-12.17609900Balance149
2025-08-151,093.001,097.83-20.76173900Balance55
2025-08-081,112.001,099.40-16.79254800Balance86
2025-08-011,116.001,104.00-14.83430500Rotation Up1525
2025-07-251,114.001,103.40-16.701339000Rotation Up1632
2025-07-181,096.001,103.47-15.332396200Rotation Up1832
2025-07-111,377.001,104.776.162914200Balance4449
2025-07-041,078.001,098.87-17.44420900Balance-1114
2025-06-271,138.001,101.97-13.83884100Downward Expansion-1612
2025-06-201,022.001,105.67-19.24217000Downward Expansion-4123
2025-06-131,017.001,118.27-18.72240200Downward Expansion-5432
2025-06-06960.001,130.23-23.51245800Downward Expansion-6039
2025-05-30980.001,143.93-22.75132400Downward Expansion-5738
2025-05-23980.001,155.87-21.47288900Downward Expansion-5838
2025-05-16986.001,164.97-22.2693100Downward Expansion-5940
2025-05-09991.001,180.00-21.3197500Downward Expansion-6042
2025-05-021,010.001,198.57-18.67375800Downward Expansion-5945
2025-04-251,001.001,217.97-17.21169300Downward Expansion-6369
2025-04-18984.001,242.93-16.84301300Downward Expansion-6872
2025-04-111,021.001,268.77-10.70266400Downward Expansion-6469
2025-04-04904.001,294.47-21.13226800Downward Expansion-8074
2025-03-281,102.001,321.27-12.23113600Downward Expansion-6052
2025-03-211,122.001,336.00-11.4374100Downward Expansion-5635
2025-03-141,127.001,342.63-8.93154500Downward Expansion-4723
2025-03-071,192.001,347.40-2.55136700Downward Expansion-2514
2025-02-281,283.001,348.374.94222500Downward Expansion-1912
2025-02-211,248.001,347.33-1.22316800Downward Expansion-3418
2025-02-141,248.001,355.73-1.33233500Downward Expansion-3619
2025-02-071,180.001,369.70-5.03160600Downward Expansion-4126
2025-01-311,193.001,379.57-5.24281300Downward Expansion-4124
2025-01-241,260.001,383.40-0.17492900Downward Expansion-4429
2025-01-171,140.001,382.80-5.56533200Downward Expansion-6142
2025-01-101,250.001,387.102.26668300Downward Expansion-6053
2025-01-031,098.001,392.43-11.0524700Downward Expansion-7073
2024-12-271,116.001,399.33-10.04276900Downward Expansion-6972
2024-12-201,135.001,406.63-4.31238700Rotation Down-6970
2024-12-131,200.001,403.37-0.14348700Rotation Down-3445
2024-12-061,171.001,396.33-1.04408500Deceleration-3734
2024-11-291,249.001,400.008.57775500Deceleration-2319
2024-11-221,400.001,402.9722.34370700Deceleration-1317
2024-11-151,376.001,405.3720.25811300Deceleration-1522
2024-11-081,371.001,392.7318.32272200Deceleration-1524
2024-11-011,338.001,379.5320.88325400Deceleration1221
2024-10-251,253.001,362.3314.62412600Deceleration815
2024-10-181,437.001,346.5728.811244200Upward Expansion3418
2024-10-111,548.001,323.1737.91226600Upward Expansion5333
2024-10-041,592.001,295.0747.10479800Upward Expansion5848
2024-09-271,750.001,267.0758.75309500Upward Expansion6266
2024-09-201,759.001,232.4070.721255400Upward Expansion6467
2024-09-131,792.001,197.1082.411152000Upward Expansion7065
2024-09-061,708.001,159.9778.19940700Deceleration6748
2024-08-301,544.001,126.4754.35798300Deceleration4720
2024-08-231,321.001,098.2734.70476000Deceleration2918
2024-08-161,270.001,078.5731.46295200Upward Expansion3417
2024-08-091,221.001,059.2338.49903500Upward Expansion4125
2024-08-021,252.001,040.8739.892469400Upward Expansion5537
2024-07-261,500.001,021.4761.331586200Upward Expansion5847
2024-07-191,667.00993.7070.898695900Upward Expansion7044
2024-07-121,476.00959.0049.462087000Upward Expansion6337
2024-07-051,308.00933.0734.901060500Upward Expansion5535
2024-06-281,242.00912.7033.50437000Upward Expansion5538
2024-06-211,269.00895.1740.94861500Upward Expansion5742
2024-06-141,410.00877.6056.972009300Upward Expansion6845
2024-06-071,305.00854.3347.457049700Upward Expansion6337
2024-05-311,335.00834.6053.097396400Upward Expansion7042
2024-05-241,037.00813.3319.734871600Upward Expansion5944
2024-05-17989.00801.4014.23795500Upward Expansion6660
2024-05-101,281.00791.8350.452053500Upward Expansion7087
2024-05-031,338.00772.8058.458457500Upward Expansion8493
2024-04-261,472.00752.8077.228013800Upward Expansion9898
2024-04-19997.00730.3024.211670000Upward Expansion8384
2024-04-12975.00721.7313.81181000Upward Expansion8779
2024-04-05822.00714.00-2.53684700Balance7057
2024-03-29780.00711.77-11.2639900Balance3741
2024-03-22735.00711.23-18.2344500Balance1319
2024-03-15705.00713.07-18.07135700Balance69
2024-03-08752.00713.17-15.61816900Balance1712
2024-03-01710.00711.80-21.5460300Balance-126
2024-02-23700.00712.20-21.7443300Balance-198
2024-02-16678.00713.27-23.7567000Balance-3117
2024-02-09703.00714.60-18.4915100Balance-2317
2024-02-02698.00714.33-18.1259300Downward Expansion-2716
2024-01-26730.00714.60-13.9670100Downward Expansion-2011
2024-01-19690.00714.90-19.59246100Downward Expansion-5030
2024-01-12670.00717.30-21.5747800Downward Expansion-5860
2024-01-05670.00720.37-16.9715800Downward Expansion-5861
2023-12-29667.00721.90-18.10147600Downward Expansion-5657
2023-12-22626.00722.70-23.0257200Balance-7360
2023-12-15698.00724.67-14.4133900Balance-4821
2023-12-08697.00724.93-13.5548200Balance-3916
2023-12-01716.00โ€”โ€”58400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-24742.00โ€”โ€”61400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-17712.00โ€”โ€”37300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-10713.00โ€”โ€”61000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-03697.00โ€”โ€”60500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-27679.00โ€”โ€”78200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-20702.00โ€”โ€”174700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-13710.00โ€”โ€”104900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-06738.00โ€”โ€”109400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+1.3%
Trend directionFalling-7.6%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-35.7%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+9.0%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-22.4%
Relative strength directionImproving+30.3%
Price momentumPositive+0.7%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.10ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-3 / ยฑ100

+2.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

5 /100

-3.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance50
Rotation Up30
Upward Expansion36
Deceleration32
Rotation Down27
Downward Expansion45

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 ยท 147 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 49%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Balance2026-08-282026-09-25Developing-0.5%
Downward Expansion2026-03-202026-08-21Established-1.5%
Balance2026-02-202026-03-13New-12.0%
Downward Expansion2025-10-312026-02-13Established+1.3%
Rotation Down2025-10-102025-10-24New-10.3%
Balance2025-08-082025-10-03Developing-16.2%
Rotation Up2025-07-182025-08-01New+1.8%
Balance2025-07-042025-07-11New+27.7%
Downward Expansion2024-12-272025-06-27Extended+2.0%
Rotation Down2024-12-132024-12-20New-5.4%
Deceleration2024-10-252024-12-06Developing-6.5%
Upward Expansion2024-09-132024-10-18Developing-19.8%
Deceleration2024-08-232024-09-06New+29.3%
Upward Expansion2024-04-122024-08-16Established+30.3%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing76
Stage 2 ยท Advancing18
Stage 3 ยท Distribution14
Stage 4 ยท Declining82

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
26/100
Current Relative Strength
-22.41
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+0.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-23.7%
Technology regime cohort
8th percentile105 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.65ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.10ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity JPY 598.20rising
Slow Activity JPY 593.27falling
Trend Reference JPY 603.03+1.3% close margin
Current Fair Value JPY 950.62-35.7% close margin
Structural low JPY 514.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.0%
Annualized volatility +38.5%
From structural high -39.4%
From structural low +18.9%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^N225 Regime survived Read
Near term10-1.0%-17.5% to +62.8%+40.0%+40.0%-2.5%+50.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate5-13.5%-25.2% to +73.5%+40.0%+40.0%-25.1%+40.0%Usable descriptive sample
Extended3-18.7%-35.3% to +87.2%+33.3%+33.3%-34.9%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2+10.9%-46.3% to +68.0%+50.0%+50.0%-37.2%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context