Weekly structural research ยท GER ยท Real Estate

INS Stage Analysis

Instone Real Estate Group SE

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 6.36Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GDAXI
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -74โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 90/100directional strength
Maturity 27/100lifecycle context
Confidence 83/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -17.0%EUR 7.66 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-026.367.61-20.1873099Downward Expansion-7490
2026-09-256.527.68-19.14153993Downward Expansion-7287
2026-09-186.007.76-25.62137011Downward Expansion-9596
2026-09-116.747.87-17.9382319Downward Expansion-8879
2026-09-047.387.95-12.3427562Downward Expansion-6964
2026-08-287.467.99-13.584867Downward Expansion-6761
2026-08-217.708.02-9.7822624Downward Expansion-5149
2026-08-147.608.02-12.3419193Balance-5643
2026-08-077.588.05-12.6314675Balance-5628
2026-07-317.728.05-9.139989Balance-3717
2026-07-247.928.04-5.234579Balance-2716
2026-07-178.008.02-3.525780Balance-3015
2026-07-107.828.00-6.81552Balance-4724
2026-07-037.947.98-8.293474Balance-5034
2026-06-267.567.97-9.096081Balance-3342
2026-06-197.867.98-7.067420Balance-2533
2026-06-127.587.95-9.5017297Balance-3335
2026-06-057.687.95-9.049400Balance-2718
2026-05-297.927.93-7.6627485Balance117
2026-05-228.017.93-5.8542313Balance2814
2026-05-157.957.94-2.9639179Balance3219
2026-05-088.127.95-2.4936180Balance3625
2026-05-018.357.950.4865558Balance4228
2026-04-248.267.940.1955704Balance3014
2026-04-178.147.93-3.4299219Rotation Down-1120
2026-04-108.127.94-0.0754356Rotation Down-1630
2026-04-037.107.96-10.2364130Deceleration-3742
2026-03-277.318.02-4.1753644Deceleration-2232
2026-03-207.578.07-1.0263230Rotation Up1017
2026-03-138.048.110.3336252Rotation Up1522
2026-03-068.518.155.6240944Rotation Up3662
2026-02-278.918.173.3550259Rotation Up3970
2026-02-209.228.177.1472002Rotation Up5371
2026-02-139.208.168.5491902Rotation Up4662
2026-02-068.678.153.2443637Balance3434
2026-01-308.138.16-2.4547805Balance-215
2026-01-237.908.18-6.7348086Balance-1514
2026-01-168.338.22-3.3164832Downward Expansion-1612
2026-01-097.628.25-11.5843452Downward Expansion-4329
2026-01-027.348.28-12.718941Downward Expansion-5840
2025-12-267.448.30-11.1713139Downward Expansion-5538
2025-12-197.418.32-11.6910512Downward Expansion-5637
2025-12-127.278.35-13.42105364Downward Expansion-6648
2025-12-057.578.37-9.6153394Downward Expansion-6047
2025-11-287.748.37-7.1458621Downward Expansion-6371
2025-11-216.968.35-14.1542923Rotation Down-8285
2025-11-147.578.37-10.0759497Rotation Down-4055
2025-11-077.148.36-14.4954153Deceleration-5951
2025-10-317.858.35-7.9746033Deceleration-4434
2025-10-248.408.32-3.0386537Rotation Down-2026
2025-10-178.318.28-2.6545265Rotation Down-2551
2025-10-108.058.25-7.6831873Deceleration-3257
2025-10-038.098.24-8.2921976Deceleration-1231
2025-09-267.898.22-8.8536108Deceleration-2028
2025-09-198.558.22-1.3316933Deceleration2722
2025-09-128.788.190.574305Deceleration3622
2025-09-058.718.15-0.1111657Upward Expansion4129
2025-08-298.768.11-1.3818769Upward Expansion5745
2025-08-228.908.07-2.0222405Upward Expansion5952
2025-08-159.228.021.1716788Upward Expansion6856
2025-08-089.287.972.1792295Upward Expansion7255
2025-08-018.847.91-0.0524103Upward Expansion5748
2025-07-258.857.87-3.6426264Upward Expansion6053
2025-07-188.877.83-4.2524291Upward Expansion6367
2025-07-118.957.79-3.7241086Upward Expansion6683
2025-07-048.827.75-3.405766Upward Expansion6785
2025-06-279.147.71-1.2936617Upward Expansion8490
2025-06-209.167.661.8033952Upward Expansion9189
2025-06-138.507.60-6.3816229Upward Expansion7976
2025-06-068.067.57-14.428745Rotation Up6266
2025-05-308.047.55-14.0519133Rotation Up3646
2025-05-238.067.54-12.9444146Balance2931
2025-05-168.047.53-13.9831384Balance1922
2025-05-097.627.54-17.8925275Downward Expansion-2313
2025-05-027.187.58-21.5213210Downward Expansion-5535
2025-04-257.387.63-16.8116047Downward Expansion-5854
2025-04-187.237.67-14.9027105Downward Expansion-6070
2025-04-116.877.71-16.16152565Downward Expansion-7878
2025-04-046.967.75-16.5661301Balance-7767
2025-03-287.267.81-20.3717458Balance-6441
2025-03-217.457.84-20.1088911Balance-4219
2025-03-147.787.86-17.3056530Balance-118
2025-03-077.527.89-20.2123132Downward Expansion-3717
2025-02-287.707.92-16.9224010Downward Expansion-3116
2025-02-217.627.94-17.0178973Downward Expansion-3620
2025-02-147.737.97-16.9040523Downward Expansion-4125
2025-02-077.607.99-15.8527638Downward Expansion-5442
2025-01-317.448.00-17.5959609Downward Expansion-6047
2025-01-247.518.01-15.7919152Downward Expansion-5539
2025-01-177.528.01-13.8531322Downward Expansion-5434
2025-01-107.508.01-11.4134267Downward Expansion-5429
2025-01-037.658.03-8.3110394Downward Expansion-3922
2024-12-277.628.05-9.057362Downward Expansion-4225
2024-12-207.728.07-7.3946560Downward Expansion-4227
2024-12-137.738.07-9.6329854Downward Expansion-5434
2024-12-067.628.08-10.8139525Rotation Down-5844
2024-11-297.548.07-8.1925039Rotation Down-3550
2024-11-227.568.08-6.3229947Rotation Down-3655
2024-11-157.538.09-5.9118716Rotation Down-2749
2024-11-087.618.09-4.75101469Balance-2634
2024-11-017.608.09-4.99146314Balance-2422
2024-10-257.798.09-3.3084755Upward Expansion157
2024-10-188.198.090.9980556Upward Expansion4631
2024-10-118.908.0611.9822408Upward Expansion6449
2024-10-048.758.0012.19122098Upward Expansion5932
2024-09-278.567.948.4466238Upward Expansion5430
2024-09-208.437.8811.61313818Upward Expansion4123
2024-09-138.177.848.8949388Upward Expansion3820
2024-09-068.657.7918.3838553Upward Expansion6033
2024-08-308.217.729.5359143Upward Expansion4928
2024-08-238.137.6910.6642054Upward Expansion5232
2024-08-168.517.6518.783765Upward Expansion5959
2024-08-098.487.5923.53121585Upward Expansion5955
2024-08-028.217.5321.1290848Upward Expansion5248
2024-07-268.777.4725.3361444Upward Expansion7053
2024-07-198.207.3920.0186734Upward Expansion4521
2024-07-127.797.3311.6350853Upward Expansion3017
2024-07-057.927.2915.9791155Upward Expansion3619
2024-06-287.357.219.84107209Upward Expansion2917
2024-06-217.717.1516.6064105Upward Expansion5436
2024-06-147.857.0820.64125517Upward Expansion5740
2024-06-078.477.0027.52159912Upward Expansion7451
2024-05-318.046.9022.9465924Upward Expansion6444
2024-05-247.886.8020.6073103Upward Expansion6043
2024-05-177.936.6922.37121647Upward Expansion6443
2024-05-107.506.5816.46127700Upward Expansion5741
2024-05-037.826.5027.4362739Upward Expansion6752
2024-04-267.636.4124.0458360Upward Expansion6252
2024-04-197.556.3226.27111046Upward Expansion6358
2024-04-127.806.2429.5387428Upward Expansion7573
2024-04-057.606.1724.9688685Upward Expansion7268
2024-03-297.746.0725.43120556Upward Expansion8371
2024-03-227.365.9921.4385875Upward Expansion7657
2024-03-156.865.8915.0963147Upward Expansion6051
2024-03-087.065.8019.0841559Upward Expansion6752
2024-03-016.945.7117.4671416Upward Expansion6348
2024-02-236.945.6319.36127486Upward Expansion6555
2024-02-166.845.5419.5254576Upward Expansion6459
2024-02-096.655.4617.16119505Upward Expansion6661
2024-02-027.105.3824.7399702Upward Expansion7976
2024-01-266.975.2921.82114566Upward Expansion8078
2024-01-196.705.2019.52117167Upward Expansion7479
2024-01-126.605.1316.55145310Upward Expansion7382
2024-01-056.605.0417.0263639Upward Expansion7887
2023-12-296.324.9510.8234084Upward Expansion7383
2023-12-226.374.8611.52125212Upward Expansion8083
2023-12-156.454.7812.55227859Upward Expansion8882
2023-12-085.644.71-1.83131270Upward Expansion6871
2023-12-015.524.67-2.42121592Upward Expansion6269
2023-11-245.544.66-0.53107877Upward Expansion6360
2023-11-175.614.660.98141105Deceleration6844
2023-11-105.404.650.88129631Deceleration6229
2023-11-035.074.67-5.48175560Deceleration3822
2023-10-274.634.69-11.33135705Deceleration-011
2023-10-204.644.73-12.19128281Rotation Up1015
2023-10-135.054.77-7.4382247Rotation Up3339
Price vs TrendBelow-16.4%
Trend directionFalling-5.3%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-17.0%
Fair Value directionMoving away-23.6%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-20.2%
Relative strength directionWeakening-11.9%
Price momentumNegative-10.4%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.57ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-74 / ยฑ100

-4.7 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

90 /100

+26.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance0
Rotation Up8
Upward Expansion22
Deceleration37
Rotation Down85
Downward Expansion100

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 18%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 40%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 21%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-08-212026-10-02Developing-17.4%
Balance2026-04-242026-08-14Established-7.9%
Rotation Down2026-04-102026-04-17New+0.2%
Deceleration2026-03-272026-04-03New-2.8%
Rotation Up2026-02-132026-03-20Developing-17.7%
Balance2026-01-232026-02-06New+9.8%
Downward Expansion2025-11-282026-01-16Developing+7.6%
Rotation Down2025-11-142025-11-21New-8.1%
Deceleration2025-10-312025-11-07New-9.0%
Rotation Down2025-10-172025-10-24New+1.0%
Deceleration2025-09-122025-10-10Developing-8.3%
Upward Expansion2025-06-132025-09-05Established+2.4%
Rotation Up2025-05-302025-06-06New+0.2%
Balance2025-05-162025-05-23New+0.2%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing46
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution28
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4A ยท Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
95/100
Current Relative Strength
-20.18
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-10.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-19.3%
Real Estate regime cohort
50th percentile18 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.18ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.57ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity EUR 6.45falling
Slow Activity EUR 7.42falling
Trend Reference EUR 7.61-16.4% close margin
Current Fair Value EUR 7.66-17.0% close margin
Structural low EUR 5.92shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.9%
Annualized volatility +34.1%
From structural high -34.0%
From structural low +7.4%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^GDAXI Regime survived Read
Near term26-2.0%-25.7% to +24.3%+38.5%+57.7%-4.1%+76.9%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate10-2.2%-31.9% to +30.2%+50.0%+50.0%-3.9%+50.0%Usable descriptive sample
Extended6-12.0%-48.5% to +17.6%+50.0%+50.0%-16.4%+50.0%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle3-15.5%-62.0% to -5.9%+0.0%+100.0%-24.5%+66.7%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context