Weekly structural research · HKG · Communication Services

0728 Stage Analysis

China Telecom Corporation Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close HKD 4.39Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -69−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 55/100directional strength

Maturity 35/100lifecycle context

Confidence 95/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -6.0%HKD 4.67 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	4.39	4.78	-9.37	151814075	Downward Expansion	-69	55
2026-09-18	4.44	4.80	-9.57	300364042	Downward Expansion	-64	35
2026-09-11	4.52	4.81	-8.30	365146457	Downward Expansion	-42	23
2026-09-04	4.66	4.82	-8.99	354044405	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2026-08-28	4.69	4.84	-8.52	324769929	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2026-08-21	4.70	4.86	-10.15	85537517	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2026-08-14	4.55	4.88	-10.48	98610639	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2026-08-07	4.33	4.90	-17.06	74599693	Downward Expansion	-74	48
2026-07-31	4.56	4.93	-13.91	69490000	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2026-07-24	4.62	4.96	-10.13	51198837	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2026-07-17	4.63	4.99	-8.75	71963746	Downward Expansion	-63	73
2026-07-10	4.52	5.03	-9.79	25990975	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2026-07-03	4.37	5.06	-10.00	54307672	Downward Expansion	-78	84
2026-06-26	4.35	5.11	-8.05	133256624	Downward Expansion	-81	78
2026-06-19	4.56	5.17	-8.93	377622177	Balance	-72	47
2026-06-12	4.91	5.21	-5.43	86196164	Balance	-40	20
2026-06-05	4.99	5.24	-5.12	43440270	Balance	-17	12
2026-05-29	5.08	5.27	-4.60	251017082	Balance	-4	18
2026-05-22	5.28	5.28	-2.75	623859380	Balance	3	22
2026-05-15	5.21	5.29	-5.57	548300392	Downward Expansion	-3	19
2026-05-08	5.31	5.31	-5.62	269385937	Downward Expansion	-13	15
2026-05-01	5.11	5.32	-7.36	345388789	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2026-04-24	4.91	5.33	-11.83	385436491	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2026-04-17	4.80	5.34	-14.72	223090837	Downward Expansion	-68	70
2026-04-10	4.89	5.37	-12.87	136846242	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2026-04-03	4.78	5.39	-12.75	171683628	Downward Expansion	-74	54
2026-03-27	4.86	5.42	-11.26	319314336	Downward Expansion	-72	48
2026-03-20	5.07	5.46	-8.96	263294642	Downward Expansion	-49	40
2026-03-13	5.09	5.49	-9.56	260917916	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2026-03-06	5.10	5.52	-10.67	282994735	Downward Expansion	-64	70
2026-02-27	4.98	5.55	-15.96	199483001	Downward Expansion	-67	81
2026-02-20	4.92	5.58	-16.69	16052510	Downward Expansion	-76	80
2026-02-13	4.89	5.60	-18.28	346574298	Downward Expansion	-83	78
2026-02-06	5.07	5.62	-15.71	656394079	Downward Expansion	-78	74
2026-01-30	5.38	5.63	-13.56	498138987	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2026-01-23	5.24	5.63	-14.04	322476567	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2026-01-16	5.19	5.64	-15.41	366122858	Balance	-80	78
2026-01-09	5.31	5.65	-11.70	342656156	Balance	-44	54
2026-01-02	5.47	5.65	-9.67	179349284	Balance	-22	26
2025-12-26	5.53	5.66	-7.00	115093297	Balance	-6	12
2025-12-19	5.57	5.66	-6.00	334515921	Upward Expansion	23	13
2025-12-12	5.65	5.66	-5.84	306868547	Upward Expansion	47	38
2025-12-05	5.93	5.65	-1.64	197905254	Upward Expansion	61	59
2025-11-28	5.94	5.63	-0.57	277520566	Balance	65	57
2025-11-21	5.85	5.60	0.47	234299791	Balance	48	37
2025-11-14	5.77	5.58	-5.85	414882337	Balance	41	24
2025-11-07	5.85	5.57	-3.35	373148057	Balance	46	25
2025-10-31	5.47	5.56	-8.28	299415929	Balance	-4	4
2025-10-24	5.65	5.58	-6.15	312572802	Deceleration	13	10
2025-10-17	5.73	5.57	-1.36	538294050	Deceleration	-4	15
2025-10-10	5.53	5.57	-8.49	328946792	Deceleration	-17	27
2025-10-03	5.33	5.57	-14.55	310654862	Deceleration	-29	32
2025-09-26	5.39	5.59	-10.22	495632614	Deceleration	-14	22
2025-09-19	5.53	5.59	-9.30	368409791	Deceleration	21	18
2025-09-12	5.76	5.62	-5.11	411072337	Upward Expansion	42	26
2025-09-05	5.70	5.62	-2.67	598812489	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-08-29	5.80	5.59	0.21	500084433	Upward Expansion	63	70
2025-08-22	5.98	5.55	2.19	243895799	Upward Expansion	69	79
2025-08-15	6.13	5.51	4.88	233207681	Upward Expansion	83	82
2025-08-08	5.87	5.45	2.14	287128344	Upward Expansion	69	68
2025-08-01	5.92	5.41	4.71	382219375	Balance	71	57
2025-07-25	5.54	5.36	-5.59	201161640	Balance	43	17
2025-07-18	5.57	5.33	-3.01	231314375	Balance	33	15
2025-07-11	5.37	5.30	-4.10	231877221	Balance	8	11
2025-07-04	5.37	5.27	-3.40	187132542	Balance	11	8
2025-06-27	5.42	5.24	-4.15	237081336	Upward Expansion	32	17
2025-06-20	5.42	5.20	-1.21	170385772	Upward Expansion	39	29
2025-06-13	5.55	5.16	-0.41	133881809	Upward Expansion	42	42
2025-06-06	5.57	5.12	0.64	227107031	Deceleration	41	39
2025-05-30	5.69	5.07	5.07	381873700	Deceleration	46	27
2025-05-23	5.53	5.02	0.92	243010902	Deceleration	20	13
2025-05-16	5.36	4.98	-0.96	281786945	Deceleration	11	15
2025-05-09	5.33	4.96	0.78	191086786	Deceleration	15	15
2025-05-02	5.09	4.92	-1.98	231645398	Deceleration	21	16
2025-04-25	5.16	4.90	1.86	571638844	Deceleration	34	21
2025-04-18	5.61	4.87	14.02	267766292	Deceleration	42	31
2025-04-11	5.57	4.82	15.82	455647786	Deceleration	44	33
2025-04-04	5.79	4.77	10.72	234967579	Deceleration	62	44
2025-03-28	5.55	4.72	3.68	331921879	Upward Expansion	58	46
2025-03-21	5.60	4.68	3.68	431252525	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-03-14	5.59	4.64	2.47	350209026	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-03-07	5.91	4.59	7.24	488528796	Upward Expansion	74	90
2025-02-28	5.56	4.52	6.72	1237619877	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-02-21	6.39	4.48	20.18	1391607664	Upward Expansion	98	99
2025-02-14	5.59	4.40	9.54	1149964188	Upward Expansion	95	96
2025-02-07	4.90	4.36	2.94	352799489	Upward Expansion	82	68
2025-01-31	4.63	4.35	1.71	63298720	Upward Expansion	64	44
2025-01-24	4.62	4.34	2.30	223344780	Upward Expansion	64	41
2025-01-17	4.50	4.33	2.06	167827879	Upward Expansion	57	53
2025-01-10	4.54	4.31	5.79	201910646	Upward Expansion	61	68
2025-01-03	4.50	4.29	1.46	255641982	Upward Expansion	62	69
2024-12-27	4.66	4.27	3.59	130994444	Upward Expansion	73	74
2024-12-20	4.61	4.25	4.78	390097614	Balance	68	61
2024-12-13	4.48	4.23	0.86	278199699	Balance	56	41
2024-12-06	4.41	4.22	0.19	205942623	Balance	50	21
2024-11-29	4.30	4.20	0.03	189758691	Balance	24	15
2024-11-22	4.22	4.18	-0.51	148549161	Balance	20	17
2024-11-15	4.23	4.17	-0.98	415642690	Balance	26	15
2024-11-08	4.16	4.17	-8.55	299610100	Upward Expansion	27	15
2024-11-01	4.24	4.15	-5.45	236498705	Upward Expansion	50	39
2024-10-25	4.39	4.13	-2.39	326614737	Upward Expansion	55	56
2024-10-18	4.49	4.11	-0.76	379953898	Balance	61	53
2024-10-11	4.41	4.08	-4.31	588953884	Balance	56	32
2024-10-04	4.43	4.05	-10.05	475704482	Balance	59	26
2024-09-27	4.16	4.03	-7.08	811604471	Balance	23	10
2024-09-20	4.13	4.01	4.33	155397628	Upward Expansion	35	19
2024-09-13	4.13	4.00	9.92	264167900	Upward Expansion	46	27
2024-09-06	4.26	3.98	13.39	122037811	Upward Expansion	49	29
2024-08-30	4.35	3.96	12.71	267772395	Upward Expansion	44	20
2024-08-23	4.30	3.94	14.51	188555387	Upward Expansion	39	22
2024-08-16	4.09	3.91	10.65	291960990	Upward Expansion	29	21
2024-08-09	3.87	3.89	7.29	383460114	Upward Expansion	22	14
2024-08-02	4.23	3.88	18.70	192556165	Upward Expansion	60	47
2024-07-26	4.20	3.85	18.23	299129595	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-07-19	4.37	3.82	21.12	417009366	Upward Expansion	67	79
2024-07-12	4.53	3.78	20.17	285656287	Upward Expansion	86	84
2024-07-05	4.32	3.73	18.58	283069291	Upward Expansion	78	59
2024-06-28	4.24	3.70	17.56	367210702	Upward Expansion	77	52
2024-06-21	4.06	3.66	11.52	282885401	Upward Expansion	67	46
2024-06-14	3.93	3.63	9.12	127852410	Upward Expansion	60	44
2024-06-07	4.02	3.61	9.38	443949919	Upward Expansion	64	54
2024-05-31	4.01	3.57	11.31	282387759	Upward Expansion	67	58
2024-05-24	3.97	3.54	7.63	356047771	Upward Expansion	64	49
2024-05-17	3.99	3.51	3.25	205716901	Upward Expansion	67	51
2024-05-10	4.00	3.49	6.96	506641039	Upward Expansion	72	64
2024-05-03	3.76	3.47	3.43	237347746	Upward Expansion	62	63
2024-04-26	3.94	3.46	13.64	242675557	Upward Expansion	73	74
2024-04-19	3.97	3.45	25.24	526624993	Upward Expansion	78	69
2024-04-12	3.80	3.44	17.04	261098919	Deceleration	68	47
2024-04-05	3.67	3.43	13.44	140961149	Deceleration	45	29
2024-03-29	3.75	3.42	17.66	239767744	Deceleration	56	33
2024-03-22	3.63	3.40	14.93	566091669	Upward Expansion	44	28
2024-03-15	3.48	3.39	9.20	530762562	Upward Expansion	57	41
2024-03-08	3.63	3.39	16.78	481446054	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-03-01	3.71	3.38	18.14	445979869	Upward Expansion	66	72
2024-02-23	3.85	3.37	22.05	588151132	Upward Expansion	85	82
2024-02-16	3.57	3.36	16.71	68454169	Rotation Up	65	74
2024-02-09	3.67	3.36	25.21	350838225	Rotation Up	52	70
2024-02-02	3.57	3.35	24.57	327720893	Rotation Up	38	62
2024-01-26	3.58	3.34	22.59	362577450	Rotation Up	40	57
2024-01-19	3.42	3.33	23.09	178479529	Balance	24	30
2024-01-12	3.41	3.32	16.70	270382960	Balance	21	20
2024-01-05	3.36	3.31	14.07	230063087	Downward Expansion	-15	11
2023-12-29	3.35	3.32	10.94	184784873	Downward Expansion	-23	13
2023-12-22	3.10	3.32	7.85	210335615	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2023-12-15	3.19	3.33	8.86	135170646	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2023-12-08	3.23	3.34	13.85	178512983	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2023-12-01	3.26	3.35	12.19	245616431	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2023-11-24	3.22	3.36	6.98	275763518	Downward Expansion	-62	69
2023-11-17	3.10	3.38	4.16	190268156	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2023-11-10	3.03	3.40	3.73	249087734	Downward Expansion	-76	81
2023-11-03	3.07	3.42	2.68	243411161	Downward Expansion	-77	73
2023-10-27	3.06	3.44	4.28	457952001	Balance	-76	48
2023-10-20	3.32	3.45	14.86	209455836	Balance	-41	19
2023-10-13	3.43	3.45	14.88	201488148	Balance	11	25
2023-10-06	3.48	3.46	19.50	36539015	Balance	16	34

Price vs TrendBelow-8.1%

Trend directionFalling-4.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-6.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-9.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-1.3%

Price momentumNegative-9.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.20×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-69 / ±100

-27.6 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

55 /100

+26.0 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

0728 Directional State ↗ 0728 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance26

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion9

Deceleration44

Rotation Down56

Downward Expansion80

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 37%Deceleration 12%Downward Expansion 26%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-09-25	Established	+0.9%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-06-19	Developing	-13.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-05-15	Established	-0.5%
Balance	2025-12-26	2026-01-16	New	-6.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2025-12-19	New	-6.1%
Balance	2025-10-31	2025-11-28	Developing	+8.6%
Deceleration	2025-09-19	2025-10-24	Developing	+2.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-09-12	Developing	-1.8%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-08-01	Developing	+10.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-13	2025-06-27	New	-2.3%
Deceleration	2025-04-04	2025-06-06	Developing	-3.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-03-28	Established	+19.0%
Balance	2024-11-15	2024-12-20	Developing	+9.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-25	2024-11-08	New	-5.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing56

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution23

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: -9.37
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -9.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -7.9%
Communication Services regime cohort: 83th percentile81 in cohort

Test 0728 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.74×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.20×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 0728 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 4.48falling

Slow Activity HKD 4.66falling

Trend Reference HKD 4.78-8.1% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 4.67-6.0% close margin

Structural low HKD 4.24shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +3.8%

Annualized volatility +22.0%

From structural high -27.8%

From structural low +3.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+3.0%-6.1% to +9.5%	+73.3%	+26.7%	+4.1%	+73.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+10.7%-6.3% to +16.3%	+60.0%	+40.0%	+28.4%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+19.6%-11.8% to +26.9%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+21.8%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+40.3%+38.3% to +42.4%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+40.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

0728 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map