Weekly structural research · NYSE · Utilities

AWK Stage Analysis

American Water Works

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 128.88Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -20−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 23/100directional strength

Maturity 17/100lifecycle context

Confidence 73/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -0.6%USD 129.65 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	128.88	131.83	-10.68	9494587	Balance	-20	23
2026-10-02	130.25	132.16	-9.17	9605281	Upward Expansion	16	15
2026-09-25	130.91	132.37	-9.23	8152969	Upward Expansion	29	18
2026-09-18	135.90	132.51	-4.91	10167113	Upward Expansion	55	43
2026-09-11	137.69	132.26	-3.97	7609508	Upward Expansion	58	50
2026-09-04	140.70	132.09	-2.91	10378885	Upward Expansion	69	57
2026-08-28	138.30	131.49	-4.82	9980409	Upward Expansion	64	44
2026-08-21	135.39	131.13	-6.76	10637162	Upward Expansion	56	33
2026-08-14	136.20	130.88	-7.93	12248542	Rotation Up	51	34
2026-08-07	134.43	130.72	-9.41	10806316	Rotation Up	20	26
2026-07-31	133.29	130.45	-7.49	17078354	Rotation Up	26	28
2026-07-24	133.78	130.29	-6.62	8791631	Rotation Up	20	32
2026-07-17	134.23	130.13	-7.19	8157653	Balance	22	28
2026-07-10	129.84	129.94	-12.00	10435610	Balance	1	16
2026-07-03	136.86	129.93	-6.46	10720271	Balance	18	21
2026-06-26	132.68	129.63	-7.68	11710217	Downward Expansion	-20	13
2026-06-19	125.07	129.48	-15.37	12993722	Downward Expansion	-53	33
2026-06-12	126.31	129.68	-14.29	9065390	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2026-06-05	124.47	129.80	-15.58	11601223	Rotation Down	-59	55
2026-05-29	123.27	129.92	-18.96	10103947	Rotation Down	-39	56
2026-05-22	125.20	130.01	-17.10	7829877	Rotation Down	-26	48
2026-05-15	124.29	130.47	-17.58	10213284	Balance	-29	45
2026-05-08	124.18	131.02	-18.01	8172869	Balance	-27	28
2026-05-01	126.49	131.56	-15.21	9430797	Balance	-11	14
2026-04-24	131.50	131.84	-11.67	8132903	Balance	27	14
2026-04-17	130.69	131.91	-12.32	11043220	Rotation Up	31	18
2026-04-10	136.26	131.97	-5.26	10171938	Rotation Up	52	32
2026-04-03	137.18	131.98	-1.79	6388089	Rotation Up	31	36
2026-03-27	135.91	132.10	-0.05	8464131	Rotation Up	29	47
2026-03-20	134.84	132.26	-3.42	10939398	Rotation Up	22	45
2026-03-13	138.72	132.54	-2.76	10038711	Rotation Up	32	47
2026-03-06	136.53	132.62	-6.08	8844594	Balance	27	28
2026-02-27	135.08	132.79	-9.28	9514086	Balance	-0	5
2026-02-20	128.47	133.02	-14.36	8445441	Downward Expansion	-46	25
2026-02-13	132.57	133.30	-10.87	11818333	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2026-02-06	122.65	133.52	-18.65	9872567	Downward Expansion	-72	45
2026-01-30	127.39	134.06	-15.84	6481950	Downward Expansion	-55	31
2026-01-23	127.96	134.36	-15.26	5179585	Downward Expansion	-44	25
2026-01-16	131.54	134.58	-13.26	8623921	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2026-01-09	126.25	134.78	-17.15	8683147	Downward Expansion	-61	37
2026-01-02	128.56	135.17	-14.45	3045620	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2025-12-26	128.79	135.43	-15.30	2839739	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2025-12-19	128.49	135.78	-14.43	11377297	Downward Expansion	-57	38
2025-12-12	129.78	136.17	-13.61	11247980	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2025-12-05	127.75	136.47	-15.58	12767466	Downward Expansion	-63	48
2025-11-28	128.32	136.96	-15.12	9314146	Downward Expansion	-62	62
2025-11-21	130.95	137.43	-10.43	11524489	Downward Expansion	-58	66
2025-11-14	129.84	137.72	-13.09	8922351	Downward Expansion	-59	65
2025-11-07	128.27	138.18	-14.24	10511417	Balance	-66	57
2025-10-31	125.90	138.62	-17.40	12791815	Balance	-69	32
2025-10-24	138.81	139.18	-8.65	4744694	Balance	-25	16
2025-10-17	140.98	139.27	-5.63	6111009	Balance	-21	10
2025-10-10	140.17	139.13	-4.73	6825695	Downward Expansion	-42	41
2025-10-03	135.04	139.12	-10.57	5961279	Downward Expansion	-55	55
2025-09-26	133.68	139.31	-10.78	6317978	Deceleration	-59	49
2025-09-19	132.40	139.25	-12.21	7021739	Deceleration	-52	31
2025-09-12	136.54	139.12	-8.74	4968576	Deceleration	11	6
2025-09-05	140.78	138.62	-4.82	3981189	Deceleration	49	27
2025-08-29	140.69	137.89	-4.88	5717443	Deceleration	50	38
2025-08-22	143.33	137.20	-3.36	5383174	Deceleration	59	47
2025-08-15	141.09	136.32	-4.75	5934605	Deceleration	49	33
2025-08-08	141.68	135.68	-3.63	13309639	Deceleration	41	25
2025-08-01	142.03	134.84	-1.28	8084331	Deceleration	42	23
2025-07-25	136.76	134.08	-7.53	5145535	Deceleration	22	11
2025-07-18	139.29	133.54	-4.68	6028263	Deceleration	28	13
2025-07-11	138.68	132.94	-4.69	5554296	Deceleration	14	10
2025-07-04	136.50	132.48	-6.58	4585236	Deceleration	13	12
2025-06-27	134.43	132.17	-6.50	5425203	Deceleration	7	12
2025-06-20	137.67	132.09	-1.00	5714573	Deceleration	19	13
2025-06-13	137.86	131.90	-1.02	4096901	Deceleration	31	17
2025-06-06	136.50	131.62	-2.33	4837781	Deceleration	35	18
2025-05-30	139.35	131.41	1.32	6881806	Deceleration	39	23
2025-05-23	139.97	131.10	3.56	5678787	Deceleration	42	28
2025-05-16	138.95	130.83	0.26	10762110	Upward Expansion	45	29
2025-05-09	142.34	130.73	8.05	4914216	Upward Expansion	60	42
2025-05-02	142.50	130.41	7.74	6407171	Upward Expansion	63	45
2025-04-25	139.46	130.21	8.62	5972183	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-04-18	143.75	130.19	17.36	4633090	Upward Expansion	68	54
2025-04-11	141.51	130.09	14.31	12256088	Rotation Up	64	51
2025-04-04	142.62	130.10	22.21	10073081	Rotation Up	43	59
2025-03-28	141.66	129.94	10.97	7095578	Rotation Up	47	70
2025-03-21	136.71	129.78	5.78	8371216	Rotation Up	28	62
2025-03-14	139.80	129.71	8.96	9721045	Rotation Up	39	56
2025-03-07	140.84	129.54	7.54	9191715	Downward Expansion	46	46
2025-02-28	131.71	129.36	-2.34	8701822	Downward Expansion	-3	16
2025-02-21	128.52	129.65	-5.63	7100128	Downward Expansion	-25	17
2025-02-14	121.72	129.86	-12.13	8604193	Downward Expansion	-48	38
2025-02-07	118.65	130.28	-13.34	4926442	Downward Expansion	-62	48
2025-01-31	119.99	130.74	-12.79	7299143	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-01-24	117.09	130.87	-16.03	4313921	Downward Expansion	-73	72
2025-01-17	121.87	131.06	-11.43	5574815	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2025-01-10	116.60	131.14	-13.09	4085221	Downward Expansion	-82	91
2025-01-03	119.15	131.36	-13.37	3256781	Downward Expansion	-76	85
2024-12-27	120.61	131.46	-13.24	2773798	Rotation Down	-76	80
2024-12-20	121.22	131.59	-12.68	8416715	Rotation Down	-51	60
2024-12-13	124.75	131.62	-12.21	4377128	Deceleration	-45	35
2024-12-06	127.43	131.70	-11.30	6690609	Deceleration	-29	25
2024-11-29	131.83	131.73	-7.90	7012628	Rotation Down	-17	20
2024-11-22	132.18	131.40	-7.00	6216208	Rotation Down	-19	32
2024-11-15	129.22	130.80	-7.97	5690852	Deceleration	-27	35
2024-11-08	130.26	130.24	-9.59	6958191	Deceleration	-4	21
2024-11-01	130.17	129.57	-5.72	5538326	Deceleration	-4	19
2024-10-25	131.76	128.97	-6.30	4048666	Deceleration	19	19
2024-10-18	135.87	128.44	-4.60	3487316	Deceleration	36	21
2024-10-11	132.92	127.62	-6.08	5031576	Upward Expansion	42	28
2024-10-04	136.46	126.89	-2.70	5820842	Upward Expansion	59	46
2024-09-27	138.72	126.08	-1.02	5471241	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-09-20	140.92	125.23	0.87	7466493	Upward Expansion	69	59
2024-09-13	141.78	124.29	2.58	4293620	Upward Expansion	76	58
2024-09-06	137.77	123.43	3.32	3320514	Upward Expansion	66	51
2024-08-30	136.98	122.70	-1.81	4599776	Upward Expansion	65	52
2024-08-23	134.40	122.00	-3.75	2904711	Upward Expansion	62	55
2024-08-16	134.94	121.38	-2.48	3639762	Upward Expansion	64	73
2024-08-09	135.45	120.82	1.34	5474382	Upward Expansion	67	83
2024-08-02	140.27	120.45	4.62	5040248	Upward Expansion	85	91
2024-07-26	134.91	119.91	-1.80	3760759	Upward Expansion	77	82
2024-07-19	134.38	119.56	-3.40	4346625	Upward Expansion	80	75
2024-07-12	132.40	119.20	-7.16	4713212	Deceleration	78	59
2024-07-05	123.77	118.92	-12.84	2549219	Deceleration	43	29
2024-06-28	122.96	118.92	-12.28	4139478	Rotation Up	41	28
2024-06-21	124.27	119.00	-11.91	4888964	Rotation Up	22	24
2024-06-14	123.09	119.00	-12.76	4983554	Rotation Up	27	27
2024-06-07	122.09	119.04	-12.65	5075891	Rotation Up	32	41
2024-05-31	124.49	118.82	-10.42	6042403	Rotation Up	26	61
2024-05-24	122.07	118.73	-13.05	4988003	Rotation Up	27	62
2024-05-17	127.34	118.29	-9.91	5367561	Rotation Up	41	67
2024-05-10	128.26	117.66	-8.27	7567385	Rotation Up	42	42
2024-05-03	121.87	117.06	-11.83	11038326	Downward Expansion	-5	9
2024-04-26	114.33	116.71	-17.38	6263825	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2024-04-19	112.19	116.76	-17.42	9371119	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2024-04-12	110.34	117.14	-21.92	7794616	Downward Expansion	-66	40
2024-04-05	112.19	117.80	-22.45	5319413	Downward Expansion	-61	39
2024-03-29	115.68	118.35	-21.46	6632093	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2024-03-22	111.46	118.80	-24.65	5521944	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2024-03-15	110.88	119.46	-24.00	10708508	Downward Expansion	-72	68
2024-03-08	112.11	120.10	-23.84	8476932	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2024-03-01	113.29	120.73	-23.76	8800773	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2024-02-23	112.60	121.36	-23.99	9089408	Downward Expansion	-74	72
2024-02-16	116.26	122.17	-20.81	8311749	Downward Expansion	-59	66
2024-02-09	115.67	122.91	-22.06	6454764	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2024-02-02	116.10	123.60	-21.28	6266345	Balance	-49	43
2024-01-26	115.91	124.10	-20.90	5599748	Balance	-47	28
2024-01-19	117.92	124.67	-19.34	4486469	Balance	-36	18
2024-01-12	124.42	125.26	-14.49	4394120	Balance	-5	10
2024-01-05	124.12	125.74	-13.71	3809632	Balance	-5	11
2023-12-29	124.22	126.15	-15.60	2492318	Balance	-5	12
2023-12-22	123.81	126.54	-16.17	4224634	Balance	-6	15
2023-12-15	123.99	126.86	-15.86	7108136	Downward Expansion	-6	18
2023-12-08	123.61	127.12	-14.67	3841828	Downward Expansion	-16	24
2023-12-01	125.39	127.65	-13.78	6393160	Downward Expansion	-15	23
2023-11-24	124.28	128.05	-14.25	4176448	Downward Expansion	-27	29
2023-11-17	124.32	128.49	-13.80	6530874	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2023-11-10	115.56	129.01	-18.38	5163928	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2023-11-03	121.67	129.78	-13.31	8447588	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2023-10-27	108.90	130.41	-18.19	4910615	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2023-10-20	108.35	131.31	-21.03	7291244	Downward Expansion	-82	93

Price vs TrendBelow-2.2%

Trend directionRising+1.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-0.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-10.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+1.3%

Price momentumNegative-5.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.63×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-20 / ±100

-78.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

23 /100

-26.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AWK Directional State ↗ AWK Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance49

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion17

Deceleration68

Rotation Down58

Downward Expansion39

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 15%Upward Expansion 16%Deceleration 18%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 33%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-10-02	Developing	-3.8%
Rotation Up	2026-07-24	2026-08-14	New	+1.8%
Balance	2026-07-03	2026-07-17	New	-1.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-12	2026-06-26	New	+5.0%
Rotation Down	2026-05-22	2026-06-05	New	-0.6%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	-5.5%
Rotation Up	2026-03-13	2026-04-17	Developing	-5.8%
Balance	2026-02-27	2026-03-06	New	+1.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-14	2026-02-20	Established	-1.1%
Balance	2025-10-17	2025-11-07	New	-9.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-03	2025-10-10	New	+3.8%
Deceleration	2025-05-23	2025-09-26	Established	-4.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-05-16	Developing	-3.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing63

Stage 2 · Advancing30

Stage 3 · Distribution52

Stage 4 · Declining70

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 89/100
Current Relative Strength: -10.68
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -5.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -20.3%
Utilities regime cohort: 100th percentile5 in cohort

Test AWK trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.91×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.63×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AWK Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 131.17falling

Slow Activity USD 132.55falling

Trend Reference USD 131.83-2.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 129.65-0.6% close margin

Structural low USD 120.57shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.6%

Annualized volatility +17.8%

From structural high -9.7%

From structural low +7.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	-2.6%-11.4% to +0.6%	+20.0%	+20.0%	-3.4%	+46.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-7.7%-18.9% to -1.9%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-11.2%	+12.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-13.8%-22.0% to +0.4%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-15.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-14.4%-20.5% to -8.3%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-25.1%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AWK Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map